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US Monetary Policy Spillovers To Emerging Markets: The Role of Trade Credit
No full textThis paper provides empirical evidence on the impact of US monetary policy surprises on firmto-firm trade credit in emerging markets, using a proprietary firm-level database. We show that trade credit acts as a buffer against the adverse effects of US monetary tightening, which, by constraining global financial conditions, increases reliance on trade credit as an alternative financing source. This effect is more pronounced for buyers with poor credit quality, who are primarily affected when financial conditions tighten. This later effect only exists in pre-existing relationships, where trust can be more readily established, compared to new partnerships. Given the widespread use of trade credit in emerging markets, this buffering role is crucial for mitigating financial pressures in these economiesJRC.B.1 - Economic and Financial Resilienc
Identification of concepts of importance for the assessment of internal validity of in vitro toxicology studies using a modified Delphi technique
No full textContext: In vitro toxicity studies are increasingly being included as evidence in systematic reviews and chemical risk assessments. INVITES-IN, a tool for assessing the internal validity of in vitro studies, is under development. The first step in the creation of INVITES-IN was the development of an “item bank” database of 405 concepts (“items”) of potential relevance for assessing the internal validity of in vitro toxicity studies. The items were gathered from focus groups and a purposive literature sample that included one systematic review and study appraisal tools for human, animal, and in vitro studies. In this paper we present the second step of the creation of INVITES-IN, i.e. the methods and results for prioritising items for consideration when assessing the potential for bias in an in vitro study.
Method: A two-round digital Delphi survey, followed by an online workshop with guided discussions, was performed. The Delphi participants were experienced with both in in vitro models and systematic review methods.
Results: Fifteen experts completed both Delphi rounds, and thirteen participated in the workshops. Of the 405 items in the bank, 372 were prioritised for consideration when assessing potential for bias in an in vitro study. Both the literature sources and the focus group discussions contributed with concepts considered to be important for the assessment of the potential for bias in an in vitro study; 83%-100% of the items collected from the different literature sources were identified to be important and 91% (127) of the new items discovered in the focus group discussions were identified to be important.
Discussion: The 372 retained items will be interpreted into a manageable set of study appraisal criteria and a supporting guidance that will constitute the INVITES-IN study appraisal tool. The high retention of items included in tools designed for assessment of human and animal studies to in vitro studies suggests that many items are generally applicable across multiple study designs. Therefore, tool development processes should benefit from drawing on assessment tools outside the immediate domain of interest. Tool development would also likely benefit from supplementing literature reviews with focus group discussions, as our results demonstrate that the use of focus group discussions with domain experts is a pragmatic and valuable approach to increasing coverage of items in a tool development process.
In conclusion, this study demonstrates the value of using rigorous methods to ensure a comprehensive dataset as the starting point for creation of an assessment tool.JRC.F.3 - Systems Toxicolog
Warming could cause significant soil organic carbon loss around the southern Baltic Sea
No full textSoil organic carbon (SOC) is linked to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. Loss of SOC is one of the main threats to European and global soils. The impact of climate change, especially warming, on SOC varies by regions but remains poorly understood. To address this, we used Random Forest (RF) to model SOC in topsoil of Europe based on LUCAS data and applied SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values to interpret spatial patterns. Key findings show temperature is the predominant factor influencing SOC in northern Europe (north of 55°N). Under the RCP4.5 scenario, projected warming over the next 50 years could lead to significant SOC loss around the southern Baltic Sea (55°N-60°N), while regions north of 65°N could experience SOC gain. Regions between 60°N-65°N would have mixed SOC changes or remain stable. The southern Baltic Sea region, with annual mean temperature of 2.5–7.5 °C, is identified as highly sensitive to SOC loss due to warming. These findings have improved our understanding of the spatially varying SOC-temperature relationships and highlighted the need to consider regional SOC dynamics in future soil management and climate-related policies. In addition, agro-environmental actions at the regional scale should be adopted to enhance SOC conservation.JRC.D.3 - Land Resources and Supply Chain Assessment
Favorable Symmetric Structures of Radiopharmaceutically Important Anionic (2-) Cyclen-Based Ligands
No full textCyclen-based ligands belong to the most preferred ones in radiopharmacy, where they are mainly applied for transferring radioisotopes through the human body. A crucial criterion is the stability of their metal-ligand complexes, which depends on the stabilization of the free ligand in solution. However, these flexible ligands can have numerous conformations and for a reliable evaluation of the dissociation energy the most stable one(s) in solution must be known. In the present study the low-energy conformational space of four anionic (2-) cyclen-based ligands has been elucidated in aqueous solution by a joint molecular mechanics (MM)/Density Functional Theory (DFT) proce-dure. The results revealed a significant preference of C2 symmetric structures, more-or-less resem-bling to the arrangements in their metal complexes. The computed dissociation energies agree with the experimentally found stability trend for the Pb2+ complexes with ligands containing pico-linate pendant arms. For complexes with mixed donor groups (carboxyl, amide, pyridine) signifi-cant thermodynamic stabilities were predicted.JRC.G.I.5 - Nuclear Science and Innovation for Energy and Healt
AI-Supported Data Management for Monitoring Platforms
Get PDFA monitoring platform is a software system designed to observe, track, and analyze the state and performance of a given environment. Its core function is to collect data from diverse sources, process it, and generate insights through analysis and visualization. Recent advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) — and in particular, the emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) — offer promising opportunities to enhance the functionality and efficiency of such platforms.
This paper explores how various modules of a monitoring platform can be augmented through AI technologies. Given that a key objective of any monitoring platform is to provide as comprehensive and current a representation of the monitored system as possible, it is essential not only to ensure regular updates of existing datasets but also to incorporate new, relevant data sources as they become available.
To this end, we focus specifically on the data management component of monitoring platforms. We examine how AI can support a typical data management workflow — from data submission and validation to integration and ongoing maintenance — to help ensure data accuracy, completeness, and the timely delivery of actionable insights about the monitored environment.JRC.B - Fair and Sustainable Econom
Influence of particle size on metal release from a cobalt- and nickel-containing alloy powder in an in vitro surrogate gastric fluid
No full textWhen matrix effects are present in alloys, the content of the metal ingredients is no longer reliable to predict the metal ion release and hence toxicity. Thus, the metals’ industry proposed an alternative concept for self-classification based on the comparison of the metal releases between alloys and their ingredients; this approach better reflects the toxicity of the alloys when matrix effects are present.
Samples of alloy and ingredients (reference) often differ in particle size. This study assessed the impact of particle sizes on cobalt (Co) and nickel (Ni) releases from different particle size fractions of an alloy powder, following a bioelution gastric fluid protocol. Results were considered together with those from reference pure Co and Ni powders.
Co-release per gram of alloy increased (3-4-fold) when median particle diameter decreased (17-fold). For Ni, the releases were much lower, but the relative increases with decreasing particle diameter were greater (38-fold). Results from the <100 µm fraction were lower than those for the fraction matching the particle size of the reference samples (by 2.1-fold for Co and 7.6-fold for Ni) but were higher (by 1.2-fold for Co and 2.0-fold for Ni) than those from the sample on the market. For all fractions, an alloy matrix effect lowering metal releases was evident.
Based on the above results, we made particle size recommendations when testing alloy powders in a surrogate gastric fluid protocol relevant to the oral route of exposure. Our work provides guidance for testing alloy powders to generate data relevant to hazard self-classification.JRC.F.3 - Systems Toxicolog
Theory-based evaluation of transformative innovation policies
Get PDFThe growing prominence of transformative innovation policy (TIP) necessitates a rethinking of the methodologies, metrics, and practices used in policy monitoring, evaluation, and learning. This article explores the methodological implications of applying theory-based evaluation (TBE) to the assessment of TIP initiatives. TBE emphasizes the identification and validation of causal mechanisms linking policy inputs to outcomes, while accounting for the contextual factors shaping these relationships. We examine key concepts and approaches for empirically testing theories of change, with particular focus on contribution analysis and process tracing as integrative frameworks for combining diverse analytical techniques and data sources. Using the EU Joint Research Centre’s Preparatory Action on place-based TIP as an illustrative case, we demonstrate how these methods can be operationalized in practice. The discussion highlights the critical role of fostering an evaluation culture oriented toward reflexive policy learning. We conclude by underscoring the potential of theory-based evaluation to clarify mechanisms of change, assess the realization of intended outcomes, and strengthen the foundations for continuous policy learning and improvement.JRC.B - Fair and Sustainable Econom
Remote Sensing and GIS resources for TAPE indicators for a case study in Northern Ethiopia
Get PDFThis report reviews Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) resources to support the integration of RS-based indicators into the FAO Tool for Agroecology Performance Evaluation (TAPE), currently relying on questionnaire-based data collection. The study focuses on a case study in Northern Ethiopia and provides an overview of existing spatial datasets suitable for supporting TAPE assessments. The report highlights the potential of RS and GIS for evaluating agroecological performance at different scales and identifies areas where further research is needed.JRC.D.5 - Food Securit
Eine Workshop-Serie zu Bedarf und Erhalt nuklearer Kompetenzen in Deutschland [A series of workshops on maintaining and developing nuclear competences in Germany]
No full textAuf Anregung deutscher Bundesministerien brachte die Gemeinsame Forschungsstelle (JRC) relevante Akteure zu einer Workshop-Reihe zum Erhalt und zur Weiterentwicklung der nuklearen Kompetenzen in Deutschland zusammen.
Am 6. Juni 2024 startete die Reihe mit einem Online-Workshop, gefolgt von zwei Präsenz-Workshops am JRC-Standort in Karlsruhe am 11. und 12. November 2024 zum Thema “Zukunftsentwicklung” und am 6. Februar 2025 zum Thema “Maßnahmen”.
Following the suggestion by German federal ministries the Joint Research Centre (JRC) gathered relevant stakeholders for a series of workshops on maintaining and developing nuclear competences in Germany.
On 6 June 2024 the series started with an online workshop format that was followed by two in presence workshops at the JRC site in Karlsruhe on 11 and 12 November 2024 dedicated to “Foresight” and on 6 February 2025 dedicated to “Actions”.JRC.G.I.4 - Reactor Safety and Component
Trade Winds of Change: Cumulative Effects of Bilateral Trade Agreements on the EU Agri-food Sector
No full textAs one of the world's largest players in global trade, the EU pursues an open, sustainable and assertive trade strategy. The recent conclusions and ongoing negotiations of 10 European Union Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with Australia, Chile, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Mercosur bloc (comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), Mexico, New Zealand, the Philippines and Thailand are expected to diversify the EU's agri-food trade and enhance the resilience of its food supply chain. This resilience hinges on diversifying import sources and market outlets, which can be achieved through a robust trade policy that ensures access to a sufficient supply of affordable food for citizens. A two-step modelling approach was employed to assess ex-ante the cumulative economic impact of these FTAs on food commodity trade, production, consumption and prices in 2032. The analysis reveals that both EU imports and exports increase in value in the simulated scenarios, with notable sectoral variations. On the one hand, exports of dairy products and pig meat exhibit significant growth. On the other hand, potential vulnerabilities of the EU beef, poultry meat, sugar and rice sectors are identified. The study also examines the impact of the United Kingdom's trade agenda on the EU agri-food sector, quantifying the impact of the recent agreements between the UK, Australia and New Zealand, as well as the UK's future accession to the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement on the EU agri-food sector.JRC.D.4 - Economics of the Food Syste