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Influences of outliers on performance of geographically weighted random forest for modelling cadmium concentrations in topsoil of the northern part of Ireland
No full textCadmium (Cd) is a toxic element ubiquitously distributed in the environment. Numerous models have been employed to predict soil Cd concentrations, among which local models can better capture spatial patterns and yield more accurate predictions than global models. However, their sensitivity to outliers could lead to substantial local errors. In this study, we aim to assess and reduce the outlier effect in local modelling based on topsoil Cd in Ireland from Tellus project and 12 influential factors. Geographically weighted random forest (GWRF) was integrated with outlier detection tools Local Moran’s I (GWRF-LISA) and Z-score normalization (GWRF-Z). The local models were compared against traditional global random forest (RF). Results showed that outliers could cause radial clusters, leading to spatially autocorrelated residuals. This effect strengthens with increasing bandwidth in local models. Z-score can effectively reduce outlier effect by adaptive removal of outliers. Among the four models, GWRF-Z produced the most accurate predictions, but its interpretability was limited by small bandwidths. SHAP values of RF revealed that precipitation, pH, and soil type were dominant factors in about 60 % of the study area, indicating the significant role of pedoclimatic processes in Cd distribution in Ireland. This study has clarified the influence of outliers in local modelling and highlighted the effectiveness of Z-score in reducing outlier effect. The proposed approach showed potential applications in broader regions. These findings provide a scientific basis for spatially targeted interventions and support local decision-making.JRC.D.1 - Forests and Bio-Econom
Export-import assessment of Tanzania's produce market post-African Continental Free Trade Area agreements: The case of fruits and vegetables
No full textForming the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a key step towards Africa's economic integration, promoting intra-African trade and sustainable growth. This study employs the Dynamic Equilibrium Model for Economic Development, Resources and Agriculture (DEMETRA) developed by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. DEMETRA is calibrated using Tanzania's 2015 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) to assess the impact of the AfCFTA on the country's fruits and vegetables subsectors. Throughout the simulation period, fruit imports in Tanzania are projected to increase by 65.7\%, reaching 25.2 billion Tanzanian shillings (Tshs) in value, while exports, particularly under the revenue enhancement (REV) schedule, are expected to grow to 128.9 billion Tshs in value. Vegetable imports are expected to increase in value by 5.3\%, while exports are projected to decline by 1.5\%. The study encourages authorities to strategically utilize the revenue enhancement (REV) schedule to optimize export profits and recommends enhancing agricultural infrastructure and resources to support sustainable export growth.JRC.D.4 - Economics of the Food Syste
Distributional and Economy-Wide Impacts of a Carbon Tax in Ethiopia
No full textThis study evaluates the macroeconomic, environmental, and distributional effects of introducing a US$20 per tome 〖CO〗_2 tax on fossil fuels in Ethiopia. We employ a top-down macro–micro framework that links the DEMETRA computable general equilibrium model with the ETMOD tax–benefit microsimulation system to evaluate alternative revenue-recycling strategies, income-tax reductions, sales-tax cuts, and lump-sum transfers to households. The carbon tax reduces fossil-fuel emissions by 5.89% while causing a modest GDP decline of 0.17%, with carbon-intensive sectors, particularly transport and water, experiencing the largest contractions. Revenue recycling strongly influences outcomes: sales-tax reductions minimize GDP losses and are the only strategy that lowers poverty. The carbon tax would be regressive, but recycling its revenues makes it progressive, with sales-tax reductions yielding the greatest equity gains. The findings indicate that a carefully designed carbon tax, accompanied by an effective revenue-recycling strategy, can facilitate Ethiopia’s low-carbon transition, promote equitable outcomes, and safeguard vulnerable households.JRC.D.4 - Economics of Food System
Ecological status in a changing climate
No full textEcological assessment under the Water Framework Directive has been ongoing for over 20 years. Climate change poses a threat to aquatic systems in Europe but also to the established approaches and methods used to assess them. This report arose from a workshop to review the current impact of climate change on status assessments, with a focus on use cases in Member States. The principle objective was to explore potential approaches to dealing with climate change in ecological assessment. Climate change was found to be influencing the ecological assessment of many aquatic systems. However, at the workshop, Member States adopted a cautious approach focused on a critical dichotomy: whether observed changes are temporary and avoidable through additional measures, or permanent and unavoidable, potentially necessitating a reassignment of water body typology or updated reference conditions. There was agreement that sufficient evidence and certainty should be a pre-requisite to implementing changes to maintain the integrity of assessment time-series and stakeholder confidence. Key recommendations include monitoring climate-relevant parameters, expanding the reference site networks to track long-term trends, and ensuring that measures to tackle other pressures (e.g., nutrients, abstraction) are exhausted before adjusting classification systems. Recording the degree of ecosystem change driven by climate change should be part of future frameworks to track changing sensitivity, resilience and ecosystem service loss in Europe.JRC.D.2 - Ocean and Wate
Chinese cars in the EU
No full textOver the past years, the presence of Chinese vehicles in the EU market has increased continuously. At the same time, the number of EU vehicles sold in the Chinese market, either produced locally or imported to the Chinese market, has consistently dropped from the record high volumes of the 2000s and 2010s, raising concerns on the competitiveness of the EU automotive industry.
In 2024, China replaced the EU as the world’s largest car exporter [1] and Chinese vehicles accounted for 17% of the total value of vehicles imported in the EU. This percentage reached 55% for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) (Figure 1).
Moreover, the dependence of the EU's automotive industry on Chinese imports has more than doubled (2.4 times) from 2010 to 2022 and in 2024 China accounted 40% of the total vehicle manufacturing capacity compared to 15% of the EU and the US [1].
The media often indicate the ambitious EU climate policy as a root cause of this trend, however such statements are rarely corroborated by data.JRC.C.4 - Sustainable, Smart and Safe Mobilit
Transmission measurements on natCu samples at GELINA
No full textNatural copper is a key structural material in critical assembly configurations and fusion reactor systems. Discrepancies observed between experimental and evaluated data for neutron-induced total cross-section measurements of the two stable copper isotopes (63Cu and 65Cu) highlight the need for new neutron transmission experiments on copper. In this study, neutron transmission measurements were carried out at the GELINA facility of JRC-Geel using several samples composed of natural copper (natCu). The objective was to validate the Resolved Resonance Parameters and total cross section of copper within the energy range of 1 to 100 keV. Data analysis was performed using the AGS code and following the guidelines described in References. The obtained results were compared with the theoretical transmission factors, calculated using the JEFF- 3.3 evaluated cross-section data and the REFIT code. The results indicate notable discrepancies, particularly at higher neutron energies, emphasizing the necessity for updated and more precise experimental data using thick targets. Such improvements would enhance nuclear data libraries and benefit various applications, including reactor design, safety assessments, and benchmarking studies, especially in contexts where copper serves as a structural material. The analysis methodology and corresponding results are presented and discussed.JRC.G.6 - Nuclear Data and Measurement Standard
Recycling, recycled content and environmental impacts of electric vehicle batteries – The material circularity and carbon footprint nexus under the EU Batteries Regulation
No full textThis paper explores how recycling and the integration of secondary materials contribute to the reduction of the carbon footprint (CF) of different lithium-ion batteries under the current EU regulatory framework. It quantifies the net benefit of the default recycling process, and the possible benefit of (i) alternative, more advanced recycling processes and of (ii) increasing the use of secondary (recycled) materials for manufacturing. Under the current CF calculation method, we find the use of secondary material for battery cell production to have a very limited impact on the CF (decrease by only 0.4% with 30% secondary material), while the use of advanced recycling processes can reduce the CF by up to 16% compared to the default. As such, the findings highlight the need for a combined approach to advance the circularity of batteries via the CF, mandatory recycled content and recycling targets.JRC.D.3 - Sustainable Supply Chains and Bioeconom
Blue Mirror - One Water - One Health Monthly Chronicle - February 2026 - Vol. 2 Issue 2
No full textBlue Mirror marks the launch of a One Water - One Health Monthly Chronicle dedicated to advancing wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) as a vital instrument for public health intelligence. Building on the EU Wastewater for Public Health bulletin - now integrated as a dedicated section within Blue Mirror - it delivers timely, rigorous, and policy-relevant insights on pathogens and health trends at both European and global levels, to strengthen preparedness and guide decision-making. Blue Mirror establishes a platform rooted in scientific rigor and international cooperation, uniting science, art, policy, and lived experience, supporting strategies that enhance resilience and protect societal well-being.JRC.D.2 - Ocean and Wate
Call for action: Advancing research on virtual worlds, health and well-being
No full text- The European Commission has highlighted the need to investigate how the use of virtual worlds may affect users’ well-being.
- Concerns about this question coincide with practical and methodological barriers to the provision of high-quality evidence that can meet policymakers’ needs. To overcome them, researchers and funding agencies should capitalise on practical lessons learned from previous research efforts, in order to prioritise those initiatives with the greater chances of success.
- Future research in this area should take into account the multidimensional and bidirectional nature of potential impacts on users, considering the specific characteristics of the technology, how users engage with it, as well as individual user factors.
- Strategies should be developed to accelerate methodological innovation as well as the translation of research findings into actionable policies.JRC.S.4 - Centre for Advanced Studie
Towards a Unified Framework for Measuring Sustainable and Inclusive Wellbeing in the EU
No full textThere is a growing recognition that relying on traditional economic indicators such as GDP and its growth, is inadequate for tackling the current and emerging global societal challenges. Beyond better measurement, there is a need for policy objectives that can address these fundamental issues in a different way. A shift is underway towards wellbeing as an explicit policy objective. To enable the existing multitude of beyond GDP measurement frameworks to support such a shift, the notion of sustainable and inclusive wellbeing is emerging as a new consensus term and approach. In this context, this paper presents the main ingredients of the European Commission’s related initiative, which aims to develop sustainable and inclusive wellbeing metrics, to progressively complement GDP with wellbeing indicators in EU policymaking. Our conceptual and measurement framework builds on the multidimensional approach of the first Stiglitz report and the OECD wellbeing framework, integrating the key dimensions of current and future wellbeing, inclusion, and sustainability. To make it useful for policies and align with EU political priorities and processes, we made three important contributions. (1) We implemented several refinements in the OECD approach: most importantly, we strengthened the role of resilience and redefined the treatment of nature. Rather than classifying this latter solely as one of the four capitals, we assigned it a transversal role. (2) We designed the conceptual structure in a way that it enables us to ‘catalogue’ existing EU frameworks, working towards their streamlining, identifying gaps in their coverage and arriving at a lean yet comprehensive indicator set. (3) We followed a consensus-based expert selection method for the indicators, ensuring that the eventual list is comprehensive, aligned with political priorities, and balanced in terms of size and scope. An important application of our framework is to introduce ‘directionality’ into the competitiveness discourse: to use resources efficiently in order to deliver wellbeing to people in a sustainable and inclusive way. If a country allocates a greater share of its resources to dimensions of societal wellbeing not reflected in GDP than another one, then a purely GDP-based comparison may provide a misleading picture. It is therefore essential to systematically identify and appropriately value these dimensions, enabling countries to make informed choices and to address current challenges more effectively.JRC.B.1 - Economic and Financial Resilienc