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エド コバン ロクジュウメ
No full textNovember 2022, Revised February 2023, Secondly Revised July 2023.The title of this study, "Edo Koban 60-me (/ɾokuʒuːme/)" means the following: in "Edo," one ryo (a unit of gold currency) of "Koban" (a middle-sized oval gold coin) was equal to "60-me" (me: the abbreviation of a unit of silver currency, momme, in round numbers) as the fixed exchange rate. This is a phenomenon seen only in the Edo commodity market, and the fixed exchange rate was used only when Edo citizens bought silver-denominated commodities from Kamigata (Osaka and Kyoto area) in gold coins. Osaka and Edo were the two major markets in early modern Japan. Osaka was the center of commerce, and exported large volumes of goods mainly to Edo. Edo was the political center and the largest consumer of goods from the Kamigata region. The early modern monetary system was a bimetallism of gold and silver coins, with copper coins used as small denominations. In Osaka, the pricing of goods and settlement of accounts was conducted in silver denomination. Contrarily, in Edo, transactions were handled in gold and copper coins. Gold and silver had fluctuating market prices. The shogunate set the r ate at 60 momme per one ryo in 1700, but the Edo commodity market was the only one that adhered to this rate. The Kamigata market and the Edo financial market continued with the existing fluctuating prices. A unique phenomenon occurred. Kamigata merchants manipulated silver prices before shipping goods to Edo. In the mid-Edo period, silver usually had a high price, and the Edo selling price had already caused a price spike in Osaka before exporting. Thus, "Edo Koban 60-me" was a sociocultural phenomenon that could not have been created unless all the following conditions were met: a fixed exchange rate in the Edo commodity market, floating market prices in the Kamigata market, transactions in gold denomination in Edo, settlements in silver denomination in Kamigata, goods shipped to Edo being denominated in silver, and the pricing method in futures of Kamigata merchants. These historical commercial facts are readily apparent in the documents of merchant families in the early modern period, and are also discussed in early modern books. Even ukiyoe woodblock prints depict "Koban 60-me" in scenes of buying and selling inside Edo stores. However, this has not become common academic knowledge in modern Japan, and is hardly known to the general public even though the Japanese love their own history. For instance, in the academic world, the current understanding is that, despite the shogunate's effort to fix an exchange rate between gold and silver, in effect, they floated against each other in all markets. The specific circumstances of the Edo market are not recognized. Thus, the understanding of East-West trade also assumes only a unitary floating exchange rate; that when silver was high, the purchasing power of gold would decline, leading to a decrease in Edo's imports, which would, in turn, increase demand for the Edo market and lead to higher prices. This does not recognize that prices had been raised prior to exportation. The purpose of this study is to incorporate the "Edo Koban 60-me" phenomenon into the common knowledge of early modern Japanese history
Higher-Order Misspecification and Equilibrium Stability
No full text*Revised：[DP-2023-E-002, August 2]This paper considers a Bayesian learning problem where strategic players jointly learn an unknown economic state, and show that one's higher-order misspecification (i.e., one's misspecification about the opponent's misspecification) can have a significant impact on the equilibrium outcome. We consider a simple environmental problem where players' production, as well as an unknown state, affects the quality of the environment. Crucially, we assume that one of the players is unrealistically optimistic about the quality of the environment. When this optimism is common knowledge, the equilibrium outcome is continuous in the amount of optimism, and hence small optimism leads to approximately correct learning of the state. In contrast, when the optimism is not common knowledge and each player is unaware of the opponent having a different view about the world, the equilibrium outcome is discontinuous, and even vanishingly small optimism leads to completely incorrect learning. We then analyze a general Bayesian learning model and discuss when such discontinuity arises
A Study on the Level of Market Efficiency in Five Markets
No full text* Revised： [21-24 , 2021]This paper examines the weak form market efficiency in five stock markets, China (CSI 300 index), Hong Kong (HSI), Japan (Nikkei 225), the US (NASDAQCOM) and Germany (DAX) from the perspective of random walk hypothesis. The methods for testing random walk are autocorrelation, runs test, strategy. This paper also examine three calendar effects in all stock markets: January effect, the-turn-of-the-month effect (the TOM effect), the day-of-the-week-effect (the DOW effect). The results are: (1)From the viewpoint of autocorrelation, the most efficient market among five stock markets is the market in Hong Kong while strong evidence of autocorrelation is found in China, CSI 300 and The US, NASDAQCOM. (2) The results of runs tests do not found evidence against randomness in daily returns for CSI 300, HSI from 2006 to 2020 but find a little evidence for Nikkei 225, NASDAQCOM, DAX. The higher level of efficient markets among five stock markets are the markets in China and Hong Kong. (3) The strategy analyzed in this paper does not find evidence indicating inefficient market for five indexes. (4) January effect did not exist in five indexes. (5) All five indexes are characterized with a TOM effect in different level and therefore the hypothesis of an efficient market is rejected for five markets. (6) All five indexed are found the-day-of-week effect which also indicates inefficient stock markets. we conclude that all five market are not efficient from 2006 to 2020. (7) After the consideration of time-varying volatility, we found January effect in Nikkei 225 in returns. Except Nikkei 225 all the other indexes are verified with the turn-of-the-month-effect and only CSI 300 are verified with the day-of-the-week-effect in returns
Die Wahl der Schriftsprache im öffentlich-administrativen Bereich im mehrsprachigen Luxemburg. Der Sprachgebrauch in Gemeindeblättern der kleineren Gemeinden
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Electoral Commitment in Asymmetric Tax-competition Models
No full text* Revised： [20-21 , 2020]This study examines the political process of tax competition among asymmetric countries, highlighting the role of the commitment to the electoral promises.The median voters deliberately elect a delegate whose preferences differ from their own (strategic delegation), which is self-enforcing under symmetric countries. We first show that the outcome of strategic delegation is replicated when the candidates do not make binding campaign promises in both countries, and the opposite scenario of the binding commitments to the platforms leads to the self-representation by the median voters. We then amplify the model by adding the pre-election stage where the citizens choose whether the credibility of election promises is critical, through subscription numbers of newspapers and social media which determine the cost of betrayal of the proposed platforms (or the lack of the proposal). We then show that, depending on the type of asymmetries under consideration, sufficient asymmetry or sufficiently equal income distribution generates the commitment to the election campaign promises as the equilibrium outcome
An Experimental Study on Information Acquisition and Disclosure in a Cournot Duopoly Market
Full text link* Revised： [13-01 , 2013]This study experimentally investigates the interaction between firms’ information acquisition decisions and disclosure. In particular, I focus on a Cournot duopoly market under industry-wide demand uncertainty. The results demonstrate that acquiring industry-wide demand information improves firms’ production decisions in that firms can adjust their quantity levels depending on the market demand. However, disclosure diminishes a firm’s incentive to acquire such information. This is because once the information, which a firm acquired at a cost, is subsequently disclosed, a rival firm can take a free ride on the disclosed information and make a more informed decision. Hence, disclosure decreases the benefit of acquiring information for the disclosing firm. Taken together, although acquiring information improves production decisions, disclosure decreases the incentive to do so and thus, deteriorates a firm’s internal information environment. This leads to inefficient production, which in turn might have a substantial impact on market outcomes
Signaling under Double-Crossing Preferences
No full textOctober 2020. Revised December 2020This paper provides a general analysis of signaling under doublecrossing preferences with a continuum of types. There are natural economic environments where indifference curves of two types cross twice, so that the celebrated single-crossing property fails to hold. Equilibrium exhibits a particular form of pooling: there is a threshold type below which types choose actions that are fully revealing and above which they choose actions that are clustered in possibly non-monotonic ways, with a gap separating these two sets of types. We also provide an algorithm to establish equilibrium existence by construction under mild conditions
Estimation of Weak Factor Models
No full textApril 2019. Revised March 2020.This paper proposes a novel estimation method for the weak factor models, a slightly stronger version of the approximate factor models of Chamberlain and Rothschild (1983), with large cross-sectional and time-series dimensions (N and T, respectively). It assumes that the kth largest eigenvalue of data covariance matrix grows proportionally to N^＜k＞ with unknown exponents 0 < _k 1 for k = 1,..., r. This is much weaker than the typical assumption on the recent factor models, in which all the r largest eigenvalues diverge proportionally to N. We apply the SOFAR method of Uematsu et al. (2019) to estimate the weak factor models and derive the estimation error bound. Importantly, our method yields consistent estimation of _k's as well. A finite sample experiment shows that the performance of the new estimator uniformly dominates that of the principal component (PC) estimator. We apply our method to analyze S&P500 firm security returns and find that the first factor is consistently near strong while the others are indeed weak. Another application demonstrates that forecasting bond yields based on our method outperforms that based on the PC
Blood Type and Blood Donation Behavior
No full textMay 2018. Revised July 2018. Secondly Revised June 2020.We empirically investigated how voluntary helping behavior is influenced by the number of its potential recipients by using a nationwide survey in Japan (N = 1,333) and examining the relationship between blood type and blood donation behavior. It is generally known in Japan that type O blood can be medically transfused to individuals of all blood groups; therefore, the potential transfusion recipients’ number of the type O blood is the largest among the four blood groups. Our empirical analysis revealed that people with type O blood were more likely to have donated blood in the past than those with the other blood types. This association was stronger in a subsample of individuals who had knowledge relating to the above-mentioned widespread utility of type O blood. In addition, our empirical analysis arrested the concern that potential blood-type differences in altruistic attitudes might explain their differences in blood donation behavior, by confirming that type O blood was not significantly related to other altruistic behaviors (i.e., registration for bone-marrow donation, intention to donate organs, and making monetary donations) or attitudes (i.e., general trust, altruism, reciprocity, and agreeableness). After conducting further analyses, we concluded that the vast number of potential recipients of type O blood causes different patterns of Japanese people’s blood donation behavior across the four blood groups. This study added to the literature the real-world evidence concerning how having many potential recipients affect people’s behavior of providing common goods
Strategy-proof multi-object auction design : Ex-post revenue maximization with non-quasilinear preferences
No full textMay 2017. Revised January 2020A seller is selling multiple objects to a set of agents. Each agent can buy at most one object and his utility over consumption bundles (i.e., (object,transfer) pairs) need not be quasilinear. The seller considers the following desiderata for her mechanism, which she terms desirable: (1) strategy-proofness, (2) ex-post individual rationality, (3) equal treatment of equals, (4) no wastage (every object is allocated to some agent). The minimum Walrasian equilibrium price (MWEP) mechanism is desirable. We show that at each preference profile, the MWEP mechanism generates more revenue for the seller than any desirable mechanism satisfying no subsidy. Our result works for quasilinear type space, where the MWEP mechanism is the VCG mechanism, and for various non-quasilinear type spaces, some of which incorporate positive income effect of agents. We can relax no subsidy to no bankruptcy in our result for certain type spaces with positive income effect