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Instrumental Variable Estimation of Dynamic Linear Panel Data Models with Defactored Regressors and a Multifactor Error Structure
No full textFebruary 2018. Revised April 2019.This paper develops two instrumental variable (IV) estimators for dynamic panel data models with exogenous covariates and a multifactor error structure when both cross-sectional and time series dimensions, N and T respectively, are large. Our approach initially projects out the common factors from the exogenous covariates of the model, and constructs instruments based on this defactored covariates. For models with homogeneous slope coefficients, we propose a two-step IV estimator: the first step IV estimator is obtained using the defactored covariates as instruments. In the second step, the entire model is defactored by the extracted factors from the residuals of the first step estimation and subsequently obtain the final IV estimator. For models with heterogeneous slope coefficients, we propose a mean-group type estimator, which is the cross-sectional average of first-step IV estimators of cross-section specific slopes. It is noteworthy that our estimators do not require us to seek for instrumental variables outside the model. Furthermore, our estimators are linear hence computationally robust and inexpensive. Moreover, they require no bias correction, and they are not subject to the small sample bias of least squares type estimators. The finite sample performances of the proposed estimators and associated statistical tests are investigated, and the results show that the estimators and the tests perform well even for small N and T
A strategy-proof mechanism should be announced to be strategy-proof : An experiment for the Vickrey auction
No full textJanuary 2019. Revised November 2019.We conduct laboratory experiments for the Vickrey auction with and without an announcement on strategy-proofness to subjects. Although the rate of truth-telling among the subjects stays at 20% without the announcement, it increases to 47% with the announcement. Moreover, by conducting experiments for the pay-your-bid auction, which is not strategy-proof, with and without advice, we find that our experimental results are not attributed to so-called experimenter demand effects. Strategy-proof mechanisms are sometimes criticized because players often fail to find the benefit of truth-telling, but our observations tell that introducing an educative announcement helps them behave“correctly.
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No full text* Revised： [17-32 , 2017]1902年の開墾法によって、20世紀初頭のアメリカ西部では連邦政府による灌漑事業である「開墾事業」が展開された。開墾事業領域における農業の発達を促進するために、開墾局と農務省は西部地域における農業の調査や入植者への指導に取り組んだ。本稿では国立公文書記録管理局所蔵史料と連邦議会資料を中心に用いて、開墾局と農務省による取り組み、そしてその取り組みが受けた制約について、1900年代から1920年代にかけて検討した。初期の開墾事業における農業は困難を経験したが、先行研究においてはその原因が開墾法成立期の状況に求められている。その条件を整理すると次の2点にまとめることができる。第一に、費用を低く見積もり，多数の事業を展開したこと、第二に、担当官庁である開墾局の職員に農業の知識が欠けており，事業領域の気候・土壌と栽培可能な作物を実施前に検討せず，入植者の農業知識を楽観的に想定したことである。しかしながら、開墾局は農務省と協力して実験農場の運営や農業アドバイザーの派遣に乗り出し、農業問題の緩和を試みていた。開墾事業が難航した理由を検討するに当たって、この取り組みの影響が限定的であった理由を考察する必要があろう。史料を用いた検討の結果、先行研究と同様の初期条件による影響と、初期条件とは異なる要因が確認された。その要因とは議会の影響を受けた農務省の予算不足であり、いくつかの事業領域において実験農場の運営が滞った。農務省は予算削減を避けるために、予算編成を行う農業委員会から出費の明確な理由が求められた際には、西部農業の調査、開墾事業入植者への農業指導の必要性を説明する必要があった。1920年代までの期間は、取り組みの予算が積極的に拡大した時期ではなく、すでに獲得した予算の維持に努める時期であったといえる。先行研究においては、開墾事業開始後から1928年までの政治的要因は，開墾事業を拡大させる方向に作用したと主張されている。しかし、本論文で確認された内容である、開墾事業に批判的な意思決定による影響も考慮すると、先行研究の理解はおおまかな方向性の把握の水準に留まると言える。With the passage of the Reclamation Act in 1902, the federal government launched the Reclamation Projects, which include large-scale irrigation in the West. In order to promote agricultural development, the Reclamation Bureau and the Department of Agriculture worked together to grasp the situation of agriculture in the region and provided agricultural training to settlers. In this paper, we examine the development of this cooperative work, and the constraints that influenced the work. Farm land reclamation did not go well in the early period of the Projects. Previous researches have argued that one of the main reasons why it had difficulties is due to initial conditions at the time of passage of the Reclamation Act. The conditions can be summarized into the following two points. First, the cost was erroneously estimated very low, and an unbearable number of projects were developed. Second, the staff of the Reclamation Bureau, which was in charge of the project, lacked knowledge of agriculture, did not consider the climate and soil of the project area, and had optimistic assumptions on farmer's agricultural knowledge. However, the Reclamation Bureau worked with the USDA to manage experimental farms and provide agricultural advisors in an attempt to alleviate agricultural problems. It is necessary to consider the reasons for the limited impact of this effort. While our analysis confirms the effects of the initial conditions proposed by the previous studies, we also find factors different from the initial conditions. It is argued that the budget shortfall of the USDA played a pivotal role in the malfunction of the projects. Although the USDA wanted to increase the budget, the agricultural committee of the Congress, which was in charge of the budgeting of agriculture, was reluctant to disburse the amount the USDA claimed for their promotive work. The period up to the 1920s was a period of effort to maintain the budget that had already been earned
