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No full text日時 / 二〇一四年一月一一日（土）場所 / 大阪大学豊中キャンパス 大阪大学会館講堂パネリスト / 前田富祺・伊井春樹・福田安典・仁木夏実・出原隆俊司会 / 金水
Difference or Ratio : Implication of Status Preference on Stagnation
Get PDFOctober 2012, Revised March 2013 Secondly Revised January 2014We consider a dynamic macroeconomic model of households that regard relative affluence as social status. The measure of relative affluence can be the ratio to, or the difference from, the social average. The two specifications lead to quite different equilibrium consequences: under the ratio specification full employment is necessarily realized, whereas under the difference specification there is a case where a persistent shortage of aggregate demand arises. Furthermore, using data of an affluence comparison experiment we empirically find that the difference specification fits the data better than the ratio specification. Therefore, affluence comparison can be a cause of persistent stagnation
Public Education and Social Security : A Political Economy Approach
Get PDF* Revised： [13-06, 2013]* Revised： [13-06-Rev., 2013]This paper develops an overlapping-generations model with uncertain lifetimes and altruism towards children. The paper characterizes a Markov perfect political equilibrium of voting over two con?icting policy issues, public education for the young and social security for the elderly. The model derives multiple indeterminate political equilibria and demonstrates that the di?erence between the two equilibria in terms of policies and lifetime utility depends on longevity. In particular, the model prediction with respect to the di?erences in policies and longevity is consistent with the empirical evidence in developed countries
WHY HAS JAPAN’S MASSIVE GOVERNMENT DEBT NOT WREAKED HAVOC (YET)?
Get PDFOctober 2013, Revised January 2014In this paper, we present data on trends over time in government debt financing in Japan since 2000 with emphasis on the importance of foreign holders and speculate about the determinants of those trends. We find that Japanese government securities were held primarily by domestic holders until recently because robust domestic saving, especially household saving, (combined with strong home bias) made it possible for domestic investors to absorb most of the government debt but that foreign holdings of Japanese government securities have increased sharply in recent years, especially in the case of short-term government securities. We show that trends in foreign holdings of Japanese government securities can be explained by conventional economic factors such as returns and risks and that the recent surge in foreign holdings of short-term Japanese government securities is attributable to foreign investors in search of a safe haven for their funds in the face of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 precipitated by the Lehman crisis. Our analysis suggests that the surge in foreign holdings of Japanese government securities will subside (in fact, it already has), and this, combined with the projected decline in domestic saving (especially household saving) caused by population aging, will make it necessary for Japan to reduce its government debt-to-GDP ratio. Thus, Japan’s massive government debt has not wreaked havoc in the past because of robust domestic saving and a temporary inflow of foreign capital caused by the Global Financial Crisis, but it may wreak havoc in the future as both of these factors become less applicable unless the government debt-to-GDP ratio can be brought under control
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No full textフォーラム基調講演 クルト・ラーフラウプ（中尾恭三訳）コメント 篠原道法・岸本廣大レスポンス（野村紅太訳