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Cost-effectiveness of wastewater-based environmental surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Blantyre, Malawi and Kathmandu, Nepal : a model-based study
Get PDFFunding: This work was funded in part by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation grant number 583722 (to PATH) and by the Global Innovation Fund grant number 583820 (to PATH). Research reported in this publication was also supported by core funding from Wellcome to MLW (Wellcome Asia and Africa Programme grant 206545/Z/17/Z), BMGF Investment OPP1155752 (to NF) and an NIH Fogarty Fellowship K01TW010853 (to KGB).Wastewater-based environmental surveillance (ES) has been demonstrated to provide an early warning signal to predict variant-driven waves of pathogens such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Our study evaluated the potential cost-effectiveness of ES for SARS-CoV-2 compared with clinical testing alone. We used the Covasim agent-based model of COVID-19 to simulate disease transmission for hypothetical populations in Blantyre, Malawi, and Kathmandu, Nepal. We simulated the introduction of a new immune-escaping variant over 6 months and estimated health outcomes (cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) and economic impact when using ES to trigger a moderate proactive behavioral intervention (e.g., increased use of masks, social distancing) by policymakers versus no ES and hence a delayed reactive intervention. Costs considered included for ES, clinical testing, treatment, and productivity loss for the entire population due to implementation of the behavioral intervention. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and compared these with local willingness-to-pay thresholds: 249 for Nepal. We performed sensitivity analyses to evaluate the impact of key assumptions on the results. Costs are reported in 2022 US dollars. We estimate that if ES were implemented, approximately 600 DALYs would be averted in Blantyre and approximately 300 DALYs averted in Kathmandu, over the six-month period. Considering health system costs, ES was cost-effective in Blantyre and cost-saving in Kathmandu. Cost-effectiveness of ES was highest in settings with low clinical surveillance, high disease severity, and high intervention effectiveness. However, from the societal perspective, ES may not be cost-effective depending on the magnitude of population-wide productivity losses associated with the proactive behavioral intervention and the cost-effectiveness threshold. SARS-CoV-2 ES has the potential to be a cost-saving or cost-effective tool from the health system perspective when linked to an effective public health response. From the societal perspective, however, the length of the behavioral intervention and its consequences for productivity losses of the entire population may make ES not cost-effective. Implementing ES for multiple pathogens may improve its cost-effectiveness.Peer reviewe
Cognitive mechanisms of perspective-taking across adulthood : an eye-tracking study using the director task.
Get PDFThis work was carried out with the support of a Starting Grant awarded to Heather J. Ferguson from the European Research Council (Ref: CogSoCoAGE; 636458).Perspective-taking plays an important role in daily life, allowing consideration of other people’s perspectives and viewpoints. This study used a large sample of 265 community-based participants (aged 20–86 years) to examine changes in perspective-taking abilities—a component of “Theory of Mind”— across adulthood, and how these changes may relate to individual differences in executive functions at different ages. Participants completed a referential-communication task (the “Director” task) while behavioral responses and eye movements were recorded, along with four measures of executive functions (inhibitory control, working memory, cognitive flexibility, and planning). Results revealed a quadratic fit of age in egocentric errors; performance on the task plateaued between 20 to ~37 years old but showed a substantial decline from ~38 years onward (i.e., increased egocentric errors). A similar pattern was established in eye-movement measures, demonstrating that advancing age led to a decrease in efficient attention orientation to a target. In other words, older adults were more distracted by a hidden competitor object (egocentric interference) and were therefore delayed in orienting their attention to the correct target object. Mediation analyses revealed that executive functions partially mediated the effect of age on perspective-taking abilities. Importantly, however, the relationship between age and egocentric bias in task performance remained significant when controlling for changes in executive functions, indicating a decline in social cognition abilities with advancing age that was independent of age-related declines in more domain-general abilities, such as executive functions.Peer reviewe
Emerging players : an exploratory study of Chinese game companies' internationalization motives
Get PDFThe increasing presence of creative enterprises from emerging nations in the international markets calls into question the applicability of existing internationalization theories, which are predominantly based on manufacturing firms from developed economies. Against this background, this study focuses on the Chinese games sector as an exploratory attempt to understand why enterprises from emerging nations in creative industries decide to internationalize and whether their motivations can be adequately explained by existing theories.
Based on interviews with 21 industry practitioners, insights from industry conferences and roundtables, and secondary data, the study finds a mix of alignment and deviation from established theories.
While many motivations for internationalization among Chinese game companies can be partially explained by existing theories (e.g. escape motives, market seeking, strategic asset seeking and the springboard perspective), some theoretical extensions are warranted. Most notably, the research identifies the role of regulatory constraints on content of creative outputs, the strategic value of existing clients in overseas market, and the critical role of intellectual property in internationalization motivation – dimensions previously underexplored in the literature.
Furthermore, this study finds some deviations that challenge the assumptions and boundaries of existing knowledge (e.g. fostering view, efficiency seeking, and the springboard perspective). It demonstrates that domestic institutional incentives alone are insufficient drivers of internationalization. Firms’ awareness and perceived likelihood of receiving such inducements and support are critical. Moreover, while digitalization facilitates efficiency seeking motives, the localization required for creative industries may reduce its applicability. In addition, this study challenges the assumption that emerging market companies rely on internationalization to overcome latecomer disadvantages, showing instead that leveraging innovation and advanced technologies allows them to bypass direct competition with developed market firms.
Findings here contribute to advancing international business literature by shedding light on some previously overlooked constructs and identifying the boundary conditions within which extant theory is generalizable
Judiciary chiefs in hybrid regimes : Kenya
Get PDFThis article examines the critical role of judicial chiefs in hybrid regimes using Kenya as a case study. It highlights how judicial effectiveness arises from the complex dynamics of leadership, institutional independence, interdependence, and public support. Through an analysis of the tenures of Kenya’s first three Chief Justices post 2010—Mutunga, Maraga, and Koome—the study demonstrates that impactful judicial leadership transcends individual stature. Rather, it hinges on the judiciary’s ability to fulfill its judicial review mandate, protect institutional integrity, foster public trust, and collaborate with other government branches to fortify democracy. Each Chief Justice faced distinct challenges and adopted unique strategies to address them, highlighting the judiciary’s pivotal role in navigating political and constitutional pressures. The findings reveal that, in hybrid regimes, judicial efficacy depends on a judiciary’s capacity to uphold constitutional principles, assert its authority, and maintain independence amidst a volatile political environment. As Kenya’s judiciary continues to evolve, its leaders must focus on institutional cohesion, resource management, and public engagement to meet their democratic and constitutional responsibilities. This analysis reaffirms that in hybrid regimes, judicial resilience is essential for preventing authoritarian regression and advancing democratic constitutionalism.Peer reviewe
Exploring the privacy and security challenges faced by migrant domestic workers in Chinese smart homes
Get PDFFunding: Shijing He is supported by a King’s-China Scholarship Council (K-CSC) PhD Scholarship, and Yaxiong Lei is supported by a Joint Scholarship from the University of St Andrews and China Scholarship Council.The growing use of smart home devices poses considerable privacy and security challenges, especially for individuals like migrant domestic workers (MDWs) who may be surveilled by their employers. This paper explores the privacy and security challenges experienced by MDWs in multi-user smart homes through in-depth semi-structured interviews with 26 MDWs and 5 staff members of agencies that recruit and/or train domestic workers in China. Our findings reveal that the relationships between MDWs, their employers, and agencies are characterized by significant power imbalances, influenced by Chinese cultural and social factors (such as Confucianism and collectivism), as well as legal ones. Furthermore, the widespread and normalized use of surveillance technologies in China, particularly in public spaces, exacerbates these power imbalances, reinforcing a sense of constant monitoring and control. Drawing on our findings, we provide recommendations to domestic worker agencies and policymakers to address the privacy and security challenges facing MDWs in Chinese smart homes
Screens, sins and censors : an anatomy of moral panic around cinema
No full textThis thesis examines the history of moral panic around cinema—instances where particular films or types of film have been considered by moral arbiters in society to be dangerous or corrupting—and argues that such moral panics may be best understood as rooted in a fear of the body and the senses. Much existing scholarship considers moral panics around cinema as discrete incidents caused by the moral mores of particular times and places. Here, I recast them as the result of an aversion to the medium’s unique physical and sensory properties. My three chapters examine frequent subjects of moral panic around cinema; the portrayal of violence, sex, and crime. Comparing moral panics from across diffuse national, historical, and institutional contexts, I show how revulsion towards films and audiences perceived as too physical permutates to shape a myriad of outrages.
My method of analysis is two-fold. Principally, I focus on primary sources of these moral panics such as press reports, censors’ reports, and statements from campaigning groups. I analyse the language employed in these documents, showing how ostensibly
moral judgements are expressed in a sensorily fraught vocabulary, betraying their roots in a fear of the physical. I support this analysis through close formal attention to the films which were the subjects of moral panic, illustrating how in key scenes they use
elements of style to produce a vivid sensory impression; one which corresponds to the corporeally-charged language of their opponents. Through these analyses, I move away from conceptions which root moral panic around cinema in an abstractly conceived decency and form a cohesive picture of how it emerges from an ambivalence towards the medium’s affective capacity—thus also illuminating how moral judgements more broadly are often shaped not by logic or philosophy but a phobia of the physical
Bayesian estimation of individual gray whale space use reveals differential exposure to stressors
Get PDFFunding: Oregon State University Marine Mammal Institute; NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Office of Science and Technology Ocean Acoustics Program. Grant Number: 50-27; Oregon Sea Grant, Oregon State University. Grant Number: RECO-40-PD; Office of Naval Research Marine Mammals and Biology Program. Grant Number: N00014-20-1-2760.This study quantifies the individual space use patterns of Pacific Coast Feeding Group gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) from photographic capture-recapture data, collected in central Oregon, U.S.A., within a Bayesian framework. We evaluate the potential exposure of individuals to six anthropogenic stressors given their space use patterns. We used an 8-year dataset of spatially explicit encounter histories collected via photo-identification during continuous boat surveys to inform a Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture model and estimate space use of individual whales. Space use estimates were combined with exposure values of four static (distance from two ports, distance from an effluent discharge site, area of whale watching) and two dynamic (commercial Dungeness crab pots, recreational fishing) anthropogenic stressors or their proxies to estimate relative individual stressor exposure. The influence of age and sex on space use patterns and stressor exposure was assessed post hoc. Space use, and thereby stressor exposure, was highly variable among individuals, both within and between years. Some individuals displayed remarkable long-term and fine-spatial-scale site fidelity, not typically documented for large baleen whales. Juveniles concentrate their space use in a distinct area that is proximal to a port and center of whale watch activity. Exposure to stressors is highly variable across individuals and years given the heterogeneity of individual space use within the population and of stressor distribution, underscoring the complexity of managing wildlife populations. While population management plans need to be implemented at a population level, the recognition and incorporation of intraspecific variation can improve regulation efficacy since individual performance has relevant consequences on population health.Peer reviewe
Editorial: Metabolic alterations in cancer : from targeting metabolism to cancer detection
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Deep formation of Earth’s earliest continental crust consistent with subduction
Get PDFFunding: The experimental work was funded through Leverhulme Research Grant (RPG-2019-282) and the NERC micro-analytical facility grant (IMFSC117) awarded to A.R.H.About four billion years ago, Earth’s outer layer is thought to have been composed mostly of a 25- to 50-km-thick basaltic crust that differentiated to form the oldest stable continental crust. However, the tectonic processes responsible for the formation of this continental material remain controversial. Suggested explanations include convergent plate boundary processes akin to subduction operating today and a variety of relatively shallow (50 km) subduction-like environments. Our results support previous Eoarchaean field evidence and analyses of igneous rocks that date to 4.0–3.6 billion years ago, which are consistent with subduction-like processes and suggest a primitive type of plate tectonics operated as long as 4 billion years ago on early Earth.Peer reviewe
Towards a complex ecology : an essay on plague history in Brazil (1890s-1970s)
Get PDFThis paper offers a periodization of the history of plague in Brazil. It is based on the ways in which experts and public health officers framed the disease, the elements they considered responsible for its spread, and changes in these elements over time. In accordance with this periodization, the article first argues that the ecology of plague became progressively more complex in the 20th century, suggesting the rise of a more ecological-oriented view among Brazilian doctors. It then proposes that political and institutional transformations also shaped this intellectual change in the epidemiological reasoning about pla gue in Brazil. The periodization is divided into three phases. The first phase ex tends from 1897, with the start of discussions about the risk of plague arriving in Brazil from Asia, to 1920, with a substantial reduction in the number of plague cases in coastal cities. In this initial phase, the framing of the plague transitioned from a disease spread by humans and the objects they touched to one spread by rats and their fleas. The second phase, from 1920 to 1950, was characterized by the hegemony of rats in epidemiological explanations for the presence of plague in cities and rural areas of Brazil. The third and final phase, from 1951 to the early 1970s, was characterized by the progressive inclusion of wild rodents into scientific explanations for the spread and especially persistence of plague in some foci, mainly in the North-East. At the end of this phase, the scientific consensus in Brazil was that wild rodents constituted the main plague reservoir.Peer reviewe
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