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Analyzing Financial Market Reactions to the Palestine-Israel Conflict: An Event Study Perspective
Get PDFe use event study methodology to examine how the Palestine-Israel Conflict affected equities, metals, energy, fiat, and crypto currencies. The findings highlight the susceptibility of the stock markets in Germany, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait to geopolitical shocks by demonstrating notable negative abnormal returns on the event day. This observation is more evident in areas which have direct economic connections to the belligerent nations. Conversely, the fiat and cryptocurrency markets, along with metals and oil, exhibit insignificant abnormal returns, with the exception of a strong reaction observed in Ethereum and oil prices. These findings highlight the fluctuating levels of sensitivity across diverse asset classes as markets beyond Palestine's trading partners demonstrate resilience to the war. Overall, our work underscores the significance of assessing contagion risk especially in areas affected by geopolitical instability. It also holds implications for policymakers and investors to contemplate the geopolitical situation while evaluating market risks and portfolio diversification strategies amid political tensions
Risk factors for overtaking, rear-end, and door crashes involving bicycles in the United Kingdom: Revisited and reanalysed
Get PDFBackground and objective: Relevant research has provided valuable insights into risk factors for bicycle crashes at intersections. However, few studies have focused explicitly on three common types of bicycle crashes on road segments: overtaking, rear-end, and door crashes. This study aims to identify risk factors for overtaking, rear-end, and door crashes that occur on road segments. Material and methods: We analysed British STATS19 accident records from 1991 to 2020. Using multivariate logistic regression models, we estimated adjusted odds ratios (AORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for multiple risk factors. The analysis included 127,637 bicycle crashes, categorised into 18,350 overtaking, 44,962 rear-end, 6,363 door, and 57,962 other crashes. Results: Significant risk factors for overtaking crashes included heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) as crash partners (AOR = 1.30, 95% CI 1.27–1.33), and elderly crash partners (AOR = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.94–2.09), and decreased risk in rural area with speed limits of 20–30 miles per hour (AOR = 0.45, 95% CI = 0.43–0.47). For rear-end crashes, noteworthy risk factors included unlit darkness (AOR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.40–1.57) and midnight hours (AOR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.21–1.40). Factors associated with door crashes included urban areas (AOR = 16.2, 95% CI = 13.5–19.4) and taxi or private hire cars (AOR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.57–1.69). Our joint-effect analysis revealed additional interesting results; for example, there were elevated risks for overtaking crashes in rural areas with elderly drivers as crash partners (AOR = 2.93, 95% CI = 2.79–3.08) and with HGVs as crash partners (AOR = 2.62, 95% CI = 2.46–2.78). Conclusions: The aforementioned risk factors remained largely unchanged since 2011, when we conducted our previous study. However, the present study concluded that the detrimental effects of certain variables became more pronounced in certain situations. For example, cyclists in rural settings exhibited an elevated risk of overtaking crashes involving HGVs as crash partners
Corporate social responsibility and climate change mitigation: Discovering the interaction role of green audit and sustainability committee
No full textThis study explores the role of corporate social responsibility in bolstering firm resilience amid the escalating threats of climate change and climate policy uncertainties. Specifically, it assesses whether corporate social responsibility initiatives can act as strategic buffers enhancing corporate sustainability. The research utilizes a panel dataset comprising annual observations from 451 US-based firms over the period 2012 to 2023, yielding a total of 5412 firm-year observations. Our findings indicate that corporate social responsibility potentially reduces the detrimental effects of climate change and policy uncertainty. Furthermore, the study examines the interaction effects between sustainability committees and green audits on the efficacy of corporate social responsibility. Our results reveal that sustainability committees significantly strengthen the nexus between corporate social responsibility investments and effective climate change mitigation strategies, while green audits enhance firm capabilities to navigate climate policy uncertainties. Collectively, these findings suggest that robust corporate social responsibility practices contribute to corporate value creation in the face of climate-related challenges
Impacts of mammals on trees and tree protection methods pertinent to English treescapes - a systematic literature review for Forestry Commission
Get PDFWe conducted a systematic literature review as part of a Forestry Commission (FC) contract to provide good practice technical guidance to manage impacts of mammals on trees, woods, establishing woodlands and treescapes. The review examined both the positive and negative impacts of mammals and existing tree protection options and best practice. Using the PRISMA (‘Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses’) framework (Page et al., 2021), we systematically searched for relevant scientific, peer-reviewed literature. We also conducted targeted organisational searches for grey literature relevant to the objectives within an English context. We then implemented a thematic tagging process to facilitate the synthesis of findings across both types of literature, whilst building a categorised resource bank. Following exclusions, we identified and tagged 281 scientific literature sources and 218 grey literature sources. We identified eight key species or functional groups of mammals (beavers; small mammals; grey squirrels; lagomorphs; pigs and wild boar; deer; livestock including feral sheep and goats and bison; and horses and ponies) that have distinct tree protection approaches available, relating to their ecology, behaviour, type of damage caused and legal restrictions. We also developed a novel ecological framework to categorise tree protection methods according to their strategy of intervention within mammal-tree interactions and applied it to each species/functional group. Finally, we provide an extensive synthesis of the literature for each species or group, detailing literature relating to ecosystem services, damage to trees, identification of that damage, and resultant protection methods identified. This document thus provides a foundation for developing the practitioner-focussed technical guidance
Adversarial Attacks on Supervised Energy-Based Anomaly Detection in Clean Water Systems
Get PDFCritical National Infrastructure includes large networks such as telecommunications, transportation, health services, police, nuclear power plants, and utilities like clean water, gas, and electricity. The protection of these infrastructures is crucial, as nations depend on their operation and stability. However, cyberattacks on such systems appear to be increasing in both frequency and severity. Various machine learning approaches have been employed for anomaly detection in Critical National Infrastructure, given their success in identifying both known and unknown attacks with high accuracy. Nevertheless, these systems are vulnerable to adversarial attacks. Hackers can manipulate the system and deceive the models, causing them to misclassify malicious events as benign, and vice versa. This paper evaluates the robustness of traditional machine learning techniques, such as Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and Logistic Regression (LR), as well as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithms against adversarial attacks, using a novel dataset captured from a model of a clean water treatment system. Our methodology includes four attack categories: random label flipping, targeted label flipping, the Fast Gradient Sign Method (FGSM), and Jacobian-based Saliency Map Attack (JSMA). Our results show that, while some machine learning algorithms are more robust to adversarial attacks than others, a hacker can manipulate the dataset using these attack categories to disturb the machine learning-based anomaly detection system, allowing the attack to evade detection
Illustrating improvement: storyboards as tools for exploring staff CPD and its benefits to students in a Scottish university
Get PDFThis article explores how academic staff perceive the relationship between their engagement in Continuing Professional Development (CPD) and student outcomes. Drawing on a qualitative study conducted at a Scottish university, we used storyboarding to capture the experiences of 29 staff members across multiple disciplines. Participants reflected on how both formal (e.g. PgCert programmes) and informal (e.g. peer discussions, reflective practice) CPD influenced their teaching. Thematic analysis revealed five interconnected themes, including improved student engagement, more inclusive classroom practices, and the integration of real-world learning. These insights were shaped by an appreciative inquiry framework, which foregrounded positive and transformative experiences. Our findings suggest that CPD, when meaningful and contextually supported, can enhance not only educator confidence and motivation, but also perceived improvements in student engagement, inclusion, academic success, and retention. We argue for broader recognition of the role of staff development in shaping educational environments and outcomes
Association of education level and depression with cognitive decline: findings from the examining cognitive health outcomes in heart failure study
Get PDFIntroduction: Cognitive decline in older adults with heart failure (HF) may be influenced by educational level and depressive symptoms. This study assesses the impact of these factors on cognitive function in this patient population to mitigate cognitive decline and improve overall health in this vulnerable population. Aim: To identify the predictors of cognitive impairment in older patients with heart failure using a longitudinal mixed-model analysis. Material and methods: A 250 HF patients aged 60 and older with an MMSE score ≥24 was evaluated. Cognitive function was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), mental health with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), and nutritional status with the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA). Data were collected in three stages: baseline during hospitalization and at two subsequent hospital follow-ups. A linear mixed model analyzed the relationship between educational level, depressive symptoms, and MMSE scores, with a significance level set at p < 0.05. Results: The mean baseline MMSE score was 26.5 (SD = 2.1), suggesting good initial cognitive function among participants. Results from the linear mixed model indicated that each additional year of education correlated with a 0.161-point increase in MMSE scores (95%CI: 0.1–0.222, p < 0.001). Conversely, higher depressive symptoms were associated with poorer cognitive outcomes; specifically, each one-point increase in the HADS depression subscale corresponded to a 0.115-point decrease in MMSE scores (95%CI: −0.183 to −0.046, p = 0.001). Other factors, including age, sex, residence, and various comorbidities, did not show statistically significant associations with cognitive decline. At each stage of the study, approximately 8%, 11%, and 11% of patients, respectively, scored above the HADS cut-off for anxiety or depression, while an additional 13%, 12%, and 15% showed borderline scores. According to the PHQ-9, depressive symptoms of varying severity were present in 54% of patients at Stage I and II, and in 58% at Stage III. Conclusions: This study shows that greater educational background is associated with improved cognitive function, while higher levels of anxiety and depression are linked to cognitive decline in older adults with heart failure. These results highlight the importance of integrating mental health and education in interventions aimed at enhancing cognitive health in this population
Hearing Intervention, Social Isolation, and Loneliness: A Secondary Analysis of the ACHIEVE Randomized Clinical Trial
Get PDFImportance Promoting social connection among older adults is a public health priority. Addressing hearing loss may reduce social isolation and loneliness among older adults.Objective To describe the effect of a best-practice hearing intervention vs health education control on social isolation and loneliness over a 3-year period in the Aging and Cognitive Health Evaluation in Elders (ACHIEVE) study.Design, Setting, and Participants This secondary analysis of a multicenter randomized controlled trial with 3-year follow-up was completed in 2022 and conducted at 4 field sites in the US (Forsyth County, North Carolina; Jackson, Mississippi; Minneapolis, Minnesota; Washington County, Maryland). Data were analyzed in 2024. Participants included 977 adults (aged 70-84 years who had untreated hearing loss without substantial cognitive impairment) recruited from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (238 [24.4%]) and newly recruited (de novo; 739 [75.6%]). Participants were randomized (1:1) to hearing intervention or health education control and followed up every 6 months.Interventions Hearing intervention (4 sessions with certified study audiologist, hearing aids, counseling, and education) and health education control (4 sessions with a certified health educator on chronic disease, disability prevention).Main Outcomes and Measures Social isolation (Cohen Social Network Index score) and loneliness (UCLA Loneliness Scale score) were exploratory outcomes measured at baseline and at 6 months and 1, 2, and 3 years postintervention. The intervention effect was estimated using a 2-level linear mixed-effects model under the intention-to-treat principle.Results Among the 977 participants, the mean (SD) age was 76.3 (4.0) years; 523 (53.5%) were female, 112 (11.5%) were Black, 858 (87.8%) were White, and 521 (53.4%) had a Bachelor’s degree or higher. The mean (SD) better-ear pure-tone average was 39.4 dB (6.9). Over 3 years, mean (SD) social network size reduced from 22.6 (11.1) to 21.3 (11.0) and 22.3 (10.2) to 19.8 (10.2) people over 2 weeks in the hearing intervention and health education control arms, respectively. In fully adjusted models, hearing intervention (vs health education control) reduced social isolation (social network size [difference, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.01-2.09], diversity [difference, 0.19; 95% CI, 0.02-0.36], embeddedness [difference, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.09-0.44], and reduced loneliness [difference, −0.94; 95% CI, −1.78 to −0.11]) over 3 years. Results were substantively unchanged in sensitivity analyses that incorporated models that were stratified by recruitment source, analyzed per protocol and complier average causal effect, or that varied covariate adjustment.Conclusions and Relevance This secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial indicated that older adults with hearing loss retained 1 additional person in their social network relative to a health education control over 3 years. While statistically significant, it is unknown whether observed changes in social network are clinically meaningful, and loneliness measure changes do not represent clinically meaningful changes. Hearing intervention is a low-risk strategy that may help promote social connection among older adults
Digital Transformation and Profit Growth: A Configurational Analysis of Regional Dynamics
Get PDFIn this article, we adopt configuration theory to explore how diverse combinations of regional factors contribute to profitability, emphasizing the principle of equifinality, which posits that multiple, equally effective configurations can lead to similar outcomes. This study examines the interplay of multiple factors—enterprise informatization, digital infrastructure, e-commerce, technological investment, innovation, hardware, and software—across four key themes: digital readiness and technological integration, market and economic enablers, innovation capacity and activity, and foundational artifacts and resources. Using data from 31 provinces in China from 2015 to 2022, this study employs fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to uncover pathways to regional profit growth. The study identifies five distinct configurations contributing to profit growth across China's provinces. In most configurations, e-commerce and technological investment emerge as central drivers. However, in less developed regions, profit growth relies more on improvements in digital infrastructure and hardware, with innovation and enterprise informatization playing a less significant role. The findings also reveal that profit growth requires addressing the weakest elements in the ecosystem—whether digital infrastructure, technological capabilities, or other factors. Strategies tailored to regional conditions must prioritize improving these weaker components to achieve sustained growth, as ignoring them can limit the overall success
Fee or free? Re-think the role of service fees in omnichannel retailing after the pandemic
No full textMany UK high-street retailers leverage their brick-and-mortar stores to implement omnichannel strategies. This strategy drives online traffic into stores by allowing online customers to collect in-store. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, retailers have endured soaring operational costs and plummeting store footfall, and customers have become more price-sensitive when the cost-of-living crisis bites. This situation leads to a trade-off: charging a collection fee may deter customers from purchasing, whilst offering free collections could cause a financial loss. This paper develops a stylised model to understand how omnichannel collections affect customer demand and retailer profitability after the pandemic. We consider three omnichannel collection scenarios based on observed practices: free, discounted, and fixed rate. Our results show that a collection fee can positively steer customer demand across channels and improve retailer profitability, and the optimal omnichannel policy exists. The collection fee should also be jointly determined with the existing home delivery fee
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