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ANALYSIS OF PERSISTENCE AND ROLLING HORIZON WINDOW SELECTION IN THE REPLENISHMENT AT SEA PLANNER
No full textNaval replenishment at sea (RAS) is vital for the U.S. Navy, ensuring the delivery of essential supplies to sustain combatants at sea. Manual scheduling proves time-consuming and inefficient, incurring financial costs and undermining Navy effectiveness. The Replenishment at Sea Planner (RASP), utilizing an integer linear program (ILP) with a rolling horizon, offers a promising alternative. However, efficient ILP solutions require careful consideration of rolling horizon configurations and persistence between iterations. To address the rolling horizon challenge, we conduct an empirical study of the settings for the window and advance parameters. Our systematic exploration aims to discern trends influencing the model's solutions, helping users balance computation time and solution quality. Addressing the need for persistence, we formulate a novel persistence penalty mechanism. This mechanism incentivizes continuity, promoting stability in scheduling. By constraining key areas like replenishments and load events, it results in a more reliable and trustworthy tool, reducing planner burdens. This feature not only maintains critical events between successive solves but also skillfully balances the trade-offs between adhering to an incumbent schedule and adapting to new information. Ultimately, this study aims to enhance the Replenishment at Sea Planner's effectiveness, supporting the Navy in projecting force forward with improved efficiency and cost-effectiveness.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Outstanding ThesisLieutenant Commander, United States Nav
ENLISTED GOALING MARKET MODEL USING DRIVE TIME DISTANCES
Get PDFThe U.S. Navy (USN) did not meet its recruiting goals for fiscal years (FYs) 2022–23. One potential means of improving USN recruiting is to ensure efficient use of recruiters. This research considers drive times between Navy Recruiting Stations (NRSs) and zone improvement plan (ZIP) codes within a Navy Talent Acquisition Group (NTAG). For each NTAG region, ZIP codes that are part of the Enlisted Goaling Model (EGM) are given priority for physical recruiting. ZIP codes are categorized as EGM if they are high production (i.e., averaging 10 or more recruiting contracts per year) or are part of a cluster (i.e., a group of ZIP codes that are within an hour drive time of any NRS and a central ZIP code for that cluster). Clusters must average 96 or more recruiting contracts per year (total). All other ZIP codes are categorized as non-EGM and fall under virtual recruiting. This model would limit the number of ZIP codes each physical recruiting station is responsible for, resulting in less time lost in travel, which recruiters could use to focus on more productive areas. Past analysis conducted by Navy Recruiting Command (NRC) used great circle distances between NRSs and ZIP codes instead of drive times. This research determines utilizing great circle distances results in more ZIP codes being assigned to the EGM than using drive time distances. However, there is a less than 1% difference in the two NTAGs examined. Future research should include all 26 NTAGs for a more robust analysis.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Lieutenant Commander, United States Nav
A DECISION PROCESS FOR SURFACE MEDICAL EVACUATION ROUTING USING ONLINE OPTIMIZATION
Get PDFOur adversaries are enhancing their capabilities, threatening to complicate the execution of medical evacuation operations, necessitating the development of innovative solutions. Optimizing medical evacuation routing is essential to maintaining operational readiness to provide timely medical care in an area where access and mobility are increasingly challenged. Previous work considered one evacuation ship using online optimization. However, there is currently no solution if multiple evacuation ships require limited communications and synchronization. What happens when there is a requirement for multiple evacuation ships? They will not be able to communicate, but they will still need to be efficient and able to synchronize. Inefficient use of evacuation ships can mean delays or missed evacuations, leading to increased severity of injuries or death. To solve this problem, we start with previous models and add decentralized vehicle routing and synchronization. This creates an optimal route for multiple evacuation ships that avoid the adversary, collect the optimal number of evacuees, synchronize pickups, and make it to the end location in time.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Lieutenant, United States Nav
FORECASTING TERRORISM IN INDONESIA
Get PDFIndonesia continues to grapple with terrorism challenges despite its shift toward democracy. The nation has seen a rise in vulnerability to acts, exemplified by incidents such as the 2002 Bali bombings and recent attacks on churches. The transition has paved the way for extremist factions to surface and operate within the country. This study evaluates Indonesia’s activities’ probability over the next decade, exploring the grievances, opportunities, and tactics that extremist organizations could exploit. Using a case narrative approach, this research delves into the dynamics of terrorism and extremism from the Suharto era until the present and draws upon existing literature and data. The study reveals that a mix of social grievances, geopolitical circumstances, and strategic decisions made by group leaders contribute to sustaining the terrorism threat in Indonesia. While Indonesia’s democratic transformation is beneficial, it has introduced vulnerabilities that terrorist groups capitalize on. Current counterterrorism measures, such as special detachment operations and deradicalization initiatives, have shown varying degrees of effectiveness. To reduce terrorism risks, Indonesia should address the root causes of discontent, fortify its institutions, improve intelligence-sharing practices, and further refine its strategies for combating terrorism and promoting deradicalization. It is essential to integrate security measures with economic advancements for future stability.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Commander, Indonesian Nav
A MODEL-BASED SYSTEMS ENGINEERING STUDY OF AIRSHIPS FOR ANTI-SUBMARINE WARFARE
No full textTo support improved capability in Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) defense of the U.S. west coast, this research project investigates the technical and cost feasibility of developing an ASW airship. A conceptual system model was developed using Model-Based Systems Engineering to define and refine the operational and architectural aspects of the system. Several system configurations were included in the model to enable comparison between SONAR and autonomy variants. Additionally, a cost analysis compared the new system concept to existing ASW platforms. It was found that an ASW airship is feasible and would provide benefits through increased time-on-station and sortie duration at a reduced cost compared to existing systems. It is recommended that the system model, cost analysis, and developed system requirements are used in support of a future airship acquisition.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Civilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the Nav
MODELING AND SIMULATION–BASED ASSESSMENT OF RENEWABLE FUELS FOR UNMANNED MARINE VESSELS: A FOCUS ON ENERGY DENSITY AND OPERATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS
Get PDFThe objective of this research is to develop a capability using discrete event simulation to evaluate the operational effectiveness of a future fleet of unmanned surface vessels (USVs) powered by alternative fuels, focusing on key factors such as energy density, engine efficiency, and logistical support. Energy density, defined as the amount of energy stored per unit volume (or mass) of fuel, and engine efficiency, which refers to the ratio of useful power output to the total energy input, are identified as critical factors in USV performance. Through partition tree and regression analyses, three critical findings emerge. First, existing alternative fuels fall short of the required energy density to match diesel fuel, significantly impacting operational performance. Second, while engine efficiency plays a vital role in extending mission durations, its benefits are constrained by the energy density of the fuel used. Third, although infrastructure improvements can partially compensate for lower energy density, overreliance on these enhancements may lead to suboptimal outcomes. These findings underscore the urgent need to develop alternative fuels with higher energy densities and improved engine efficiencies to ensure the future fleet's effectiveness.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Outstanding ThesisCivilian, Singapore Technologies Engineering, Singapor
STRESS AS AN ENHANCEMENT: A MINDSET TO IMPROVE FIREFIGHTER PERFORMANCE
Get PDFEffective firefighting operations require rapid, composed decision-making under stressful conditions. Poor decisions in such scenarios can lead to significant injuries and loss of life, underscoring the importance of managing stress to enhance firefighter performance. This thesis investigates integrating mental skills training (MST) into firefighter training programs to improve stress responses and cognitive abilities during emergencies. This study identifies best practices for stress attenuation and reappraisal techniques through a qualitative analysis of MST programs in analogous fields, such as the U.S. Army’s (USA) Ready and Resilient program and the U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Committee’s psychological services. The research emphasizes controlled breathing, visualization, and self-talk as effective methods for mitigating stress’s physiological impacts. Findings suggest that adopting a stress-enhancement mindset can transform stress from a debilitating force to a performance enhancer, significantly improving decision-making and operational outcomes. Implementing MST in firefighter training could save lives by fostering more effective and efficient emergency responses.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Civilian, Hayward Fire Departmen
INTEGRATION OF 5G COMMUNICATIONS FOR UAV CONTROL IN A MULTI-LINK NETWORK
Get PDFThe Data Distribution Service (DDS) is a middleware protocol and prime candidate for cohesive communications in an unmanned system. Earlier thesis work proposed a network architecture that incorporates SATCOM and WiFi links. This thesis expands upon the network architecture of the previous study by integrating 5G communications with DDS. This integration, where unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) control is offloaded onto 5G networks, not only ensures the safe operation of UAVs but also facilitates a range of applications by delivering mission-specific payload data. Using controlled simulations, the objective of this research is to successfully connect a UAV to a 5G network and analyze whether a UAV can send data to the ground station. The latency and throughput of the system is also analyzed and compared against the earlier setup.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Major, Republic of Singapore Air Forc
IMPROVING USMC TACTICAL NETWORKS WITH SDN: AUTOMATION AND TRAFFIC ENGINEERING SOLUTIONS
Get PDFThe operational conditions of multi-unit tactical United States Marine Corps (USMC) networks are highly dynamic, placing significant strain on network management and configuration. The current network architecture being distributed and manually configured is prone to error and struggles to adapt to dynamic operational conditions. This thesis explores the benefits of utilizing Software-Defined Networking (SDN) technology to automate network-wide configuration across devices. By leveraging a centralized SDN controller called Open Network Operating System (ONOS), we demonstrate through simulated experiments the feasibility of automating three typical tactical traffic engineering tasks in multi-unit deployment scenarios. The traffic engineering solutions support controlled sharing of backhaul links, adjustment of multi-path bandwidth allocation on demand, and provision of bandwidth guarantees to targeted network segments and applications. Overall, this thesis shows that adopting SDN technology can greatly enhance communication planning, deployment, and performance in multi-unit tactical operations by enabling network engineers to rapidly develop and deploy new traffic engineering capabilities without without requiring manual configuration of devices.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Captain, United States Marine Corp
EQUITY AND EFFICIENCY TRADEOFFS IN MULTI-TIER SIMULATED QUEUEING OF HOMELESS CARE SYSTEMS
Get PDFOur research explores the trade-offs between equity and efficiency in the Coordinated Entry (CE) homeless care system in San Francisco. It addresses two questions: First, how does varying the threshold for criteria used to determine system entry eligibility for individuals impact equity and efficiency? Second, how can design of experiments (DOE) identify significant parameters in the CE system? A queueing simulation model of the Coordinated Entry system is developed to evaluate three policy interventions: Static Threshold, Dynamic Threshold, and Buffer Limits. Key performance metrics include waiting times for permanent and temporary housing, as well as the correct alignment of appropriate resources to the individuals that enter the CE system. The results demonstrate that there are significant trade-offs, showing that a varying threshold can potentially reduce the overall wait time for housing in the CE system, though at the expense of equity. A Nearly Orthogonal and Balanced (NOAB) design enabled a robust analysis, showing parameters such as threshold adjustments and variation in housing eligibility have significant impact on the CE system overall. These findings offer insights into decision-making on policies within the homeless care system.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Lieutenant, United States Nav