Naval Postgraduate School
Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate SchoolNot a member yet
71232 research outputs found
Sort by
Wanted: a strategy to integrate deterrence
Get PDFIntegrated deterrence is a new term in the defence lexicon, introduced by members of the Biden administration to describe a key concept in current U.S. National Security Strategy. This article unpacks this concept by explaining why deterrence is no longer integrated. It identifies the technological, social, and environmental changes that produced this emergent demand for a fundamental assessment of the workings of deterrence today. The concept of deterrence itself, however, does not require reassessment. Rather, the focus here is on applying existing theory to a new strategic setting. The narrative surveys criteria suggested by various authors to guide the process of integration while explaining why some of these ideas are unsuitable as a starting point for integrating deterrence. The article then identifies several themes that should be incorporated into a future deterrence strategy and concludes with some observations about where the task of integrating deterrence might commence
SURFACE-TO-SURFACE FIRE SUPPORT PLANNING OPTIMIZATION
No full textThis research aims to provide more capability at the tactical level of operations and add to the infantry centric model it was built on utilizing geospatial data for fire support planning. Force Design 2030 continues to drive transformative shifts in the artillery and fire support community within the Marine Corps. Changes in both material equipment and planning are underway to provide an expedited decision-making process. To further this endeavor, we have developed a model that started with traditional ground combat systems, such as the 81mm mortar and 155mm cannon artillery. This model optimizes the route planning, range estimation, and ammunition allocation to facilitate the execution of an operation by a traditional infantry battalion. We then shifted to the concept of Expeditionary Advanced Based Operations. The Navy Marine Corps Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System Launcher is a two-rocket system capable of disabling enemy surface ships. This is a vital fire support solution to aid in sea denial. It is critical to maximize the engagement area of these missile sections by their positioning on an island at the platoon or battery level. Both models use geospatial intelligence leveraging unsupervised machine learning techniques to classify suitable firing positions. Additionally, this intelligence provides information about the road networks to conduct convoy movements. These models can then provide a ready solution to increase the likelihood of mission success.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Captain, United States Marine Corp
IMPLEMENTING INTEGER LINEAR PROGRAMMING TO OPTIMIZE ON-ORBIT SERVICING MISSIONS
Get PDFHistorically, satellite maintenance has been conducted by manned missions launched to service only one satellite. This carries with it inherent risks and large costs. On-orbit servicing (OOS) is a mission concept for employing satellite servicer vehicles, either employed from an orbital “depot” or launched with mission-specific supplies, to conduct maintenance of satellites in orbit. In order to service multiple satellites in one mission, these servicer vehicles must be capable of completing multiple sequential orbital transfers, which are costly in terms of both fuel and time. With limited capacity for fuel onboard, selecting the proper sequence to minimize the fuel or time spent on each mission is of great interest. This thesis formulates an integer linear program for determining the optimal sequence of satellites to be visited. Our model accounts for changes to satellite orbits over time and allows for the possibility that the servicer may wait between transits in order for the orbits to reach a more desirable configuration. We implement the model in Python and find solutions to a series of satellite sets of various sizes to examine the model’s computation time and the fuel usage and time required to execute the resulting sequence of transits.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Outstanding ThesisCaptain, United States Marine Corp
WHAT DO RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY AND SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS HAVE TO SAY ABOUT THE DRUG WAR IN MEXICO?
Get PDFThe violence attributed to drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) has evolved in the last decade, with DTOs increasing the reach and scope of their operations in the Latin American region and trafficking narcotics into the United States and Canada. The complexity of combating DTOs using military force has shown limited results, especially in Mexico, where levels of violence have increased to record levels. This study examines the development of a coercive approach based on two perspectives: First, on rational choice theory to describe how violence presents a maximizing strategy for drug cartels under actual conditions of competitive dynamics derived from the kingpin strategy employed in the previous two decades, and second, by employing social network analysis to study the competing dynamics of the cartel alliance structure of the two main cartels in Mexico, Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) and Sinaloa Cartel. Under this framework, policy recommendations vary over social, political, and economic actions that, based on the underlying economic motivation of the cartels, seek to increase perceived costs, and create incentives for assimilating part of the cartels into an open marijuana market to reduce competitive pressures that fuels inter cartel conflict.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Major, Marine Corp
IN WHAT WAYS DOES THE RISE OF CHINA’S EMERGING COGNITIVE WARFARE CAPABILITIES POSE A THREAT TO SOUTH-EAST ASIA?
Get PDFThis thesis examines China's evolving cognitive warfare capabilities and the risks they pose to Southeast Asia, emphasizing the pivotal role of information technology (IT). China strategically employs cognitive warfare, which integrates sophisticated psychological and informational operations, to sway perceptions and decision-making processes to align with national objectives. Applying a detailed case study of Taiwan, this analysis highlights China's use of military posturing, economic leverage, cultural integration, and disinformation campaigns to influence Taiwanese public opinion and governmental policy. Moreover, the research explores the potential use of China's emerging IT advancements, including AI, data analytics, and communication technologies, to further its cognitive warfare objectives. Despite the lack of concrete evidence of these technologies' current use in cognitive warfare against Taiwan, their development clearly poses a future risk. The study extrapolates from China's internal and external propaganda and disinformation efforts to forecast potential refinement and amplification of these tactics in Taiwan and, subsequently, Southeast Asia.The findings indicate that while these strategies have complex and varied impacts in Taiwan, they could potentially serve as a blueprint for operations in Southeast Asia, where political and cultural landscapes present both vulnerabilities and resistances to such tactics.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Major, United States Arm
IMPLICATIONS OF ANNUAL BUDGETING ON THE EXECUTION OF BRAZILIAN NAVY INVESTMENTS
Get PDFBrazil has a vast maritime area called the “Blue Amazon,” which is rich in natural resources. To improve the protection of the Blue Amazon, in 2008, the Brazilian Navy (BN) started multi-year investments in long-term defense projects such as the Submarine Development Program (PROSUB). Brazil’s budgetary framework operates on an annual appropriation cycle, and this thesis assesses its impact on the BN’s capital investments. The research focuses on PROSUB’s execution from 2020 to 2023, compares Brazil’s and the United States’ budgetary systems, and evaluates an alternative budgetary system’s ability to increase defense investments’ effectiveness in Brazil. Findings suggest Brazil’s current budget system leads to work stoppages, timeline extensions, and price increases, hampering PROSUB’s progress and predictability. Although the BN has implemented strategies to increase efficiency and align actions to the budget, issues persist. The research suggests that incorporating a multi-year appropriations mechanism into Brazil’s annual budget system could provide a more efficient framework for long-term execution. This approach may balance annual oversight with the need for long-term fiscal planning, improving the BN’s means to develop and maintain capabilities necessary to protect the Blue Amazon.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Outstanding ThesisCapitão de Corveta, Brazilian Nav
FORGING SILICON INNOVATION AND INDEPENDENCE: STATE PLANNING, FOREIGN DEPENDENCE, AND CONTAINMENT IN CHINA'S SEMICONDUCTOR AMBITIONS
Get PDFDuring the 21st century, China has identified semiconductor technology as crucial for advancing its science and technology ambitions, emphasizing the need for indigenous innovation and self-sufficiency. However, by 2023, scholars and reports suggest that China has not achieved these goals. This thesis explores the factors influencing China's semiconductor ambitions, focusing on state planning, foreign dependence, and foreign containment from 2000 to 2023. The findings indicate that state planning negatively impacted both innovation and self-sufficiency. The Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) micromanagement stifled innovation, while its financial strategies led to misallocated resources, hindering self-sustainability. Foreign dependence yielded mixed results: although foreign technology, know-how, and talent contributed to some progress, they failed to significantly advance China’s domestic workforce or provide substantial technological breakthroughs. The impact of foreign containment evolved over time. It was minimal in the first decade but became significant in the latter, severely affecting China’s self-sufficiency. As China relied heavily on foreign technology and expertise, containment measures increasingly hampered its ability to cultivate domestic innovation and self-sufficiency.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Lieutenant, United States Nav
DEGREE OF OXIDATION OF ULTRA-HIGH TEMPERATURE CERAMICS IN THE PRESENCE OF CALCIA-MAGNESIA-ALUMINO-SILICATE (CMAS)
Get PDFAs operating envelopes of gas turbine engines (GTEs) expand in a quest to seek higher efficiencies through higher inlet temperatures, the need to protect sensitive engine components has become paramount. Thermal and environmental barrier coatings (T/EBCs) have been employed to protect the base metal from inlet temperatures beyond melting points of most materials. These coatings must be capable of withstanding highly oxidizing environments and environments laden with sand and ash composed of calcia-magnesia-alumino-silicate or CMAS, which has a melting temperature below the standard operating inlet temperatures of GTEs. In a small pool of candidates, ultra-high temperature ceramics (UHTCs) have shown promise with sufficient strength, fatigue resistance, thermal shock resistances, oxidation behavior, and coefficients of thermal expansion close to the metals used in GTE fabrication, but the ability to resist CMAS attack is still under exploration. HfB2, ZrB2, and HEB are among the candidates of UHTCs currently in consideration, but the rate of oxidation and the resulting oxide layers suffer lower resistance than the substrate. Two methods of CMAS application were utilized and the resulting penetration depths and oxidation rates were explored to determine the most resistant of the UHTCs.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Outstanding ThesisLieutenant Commander, United States Nav
Multiscale Modeling Framework using Element-based Galerkin Methods for Moist Atmospheric Limited-Area Simulations
Get PDFThis work was supported by the Office of Naval Research under Grant No. N0001419WX00721. F. X. Giraldo was also supported by the National Science Foundation under grant AGS-1835881. This work was performed when Soonpil Kang held a National Academy of Sciences’ National Research Council Fellowship at the Naval Postgraduate School.This paper presents a multiscale modeling framework (MMF) to model moist atmospheric limited-area weather. The MMF resolves large-scale convection using a coarse grid while simultaneously resolving local features through numerous fine local grids and coupling them seamlessly. Both large- and small-scale processes are modeled using the compressible Navier-Stokes equations within the Nonhydrostatic Unified Model of the Atmosphere (NUMA), and they are discretized using a continuous element-based Galerkin method (spectral elements) with high-order basis functions. Consequently, the large-scale and small-scale models share the same dynamical core but have the flexibility to be adjusted individually. The proposed MMF method is tested in 2D and 3D idealized limited area weather problems involving storm clouds produced by squall line and supercell sim ulations. The MMF numerical results showed enhanced representation of cloud processes compared to the coarse model
APPLYING MACHINE LEARNING AND SENTIMENT ANALYSIS TO ASSESS THE HEALTH OF MARINE CORPS CULTURE
Get PDFThe Marine Corps' commitment to maintaining a robust Esprit de Corps faces challenges from persistent and pressing issues for commanders like military suicides, mental health concerns, sexual harassment, assault, and equal opportunity complaints. This thesis explores the capability and usefulness of Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance and improve command climate analysis within the Marine Corps by harnessing Natural Language Processing (NLP) to examine free-text responses in the Defense Equal Opportunity Climate Survey (DEOCS). This research rigorously compares the performance of LLMs against traditional machine learning models with regard to sentiment analysis and topic extraction. Our findings reveal that LLMs can provide more accurate and nuanced insights into free text responses of command climate surveys. LLMs also have the potential to expedite the analysis process and provide trend analysis on surveys aggregated over time and throughout commands using these methods along with the proper computational power. These advantages are critical for identifying key areas of concern and fostering troop welfare and retention across the Department of Defense. The deployment of these advanced NLP techniques found in LLMs can represent a significant leap forward in identifying operational efficiencies and can improve strategic decision-making within military contexts.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Captain, United States Marine Corp