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Identifying Cognitive Biases in Selection Boards Using a Data-Driven Approach
No full textCombing data on individual evaluation, career, and demographic characteristics of Navy Officers with the demographic and occupational composition of Selection Boards, we find URL candidates that share designators with Board Presidents are more likely to be promoted to O4 and O5 ranks. Such effects are statistically significant but are only a fifth of the size of key individual evaluation predictors of promotion such as receiving a mark of Early Promote. We find no evidence that sharing the same demographic characteristics as Selection Board Presidents affects a URL candidate’s probability of promotion. We also find no evidence that more demographic matching between candidates and Board Members affects URL promotion outcomes. Individual evaluation characteristics of candidates are stronger predictors of promotion with some evidence of URL Boards voting more favorably on records that share the same designator/occupation background as the Board.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)N1 – Manpower, Personnel, Training & EducationNaval Research Progra
Analyzing Naval Special Warfare's Role in the Kill Chain
No full textThis work provides analysis to inform future force design for Naval Special Warfare Command with reference to changes in mission sets and potential capabilities. More specifically, the work considers the challenge of how Naval Special Warfare may leverage unmanned and increasingly autonomous systems to play a role in the Kill Chain. The methods used range from uncovering design challenges around the integration of new technologies to qualitative analysis of organizational and bureaucratic dynamics. We find that the challenges surrounding these topics extend broadly and need to be viewed with a wider aperture to enable effective future force design. The work offers a wider and deeper discussion of implications of changing missions sets and technology on Naval Special Warfare at the institutional level. The purpose of this analysis is to tease out design considerations within and around Naval Special Warfare under rapidly changing conditions.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research ProgramNaval Special Warfar
Emerging Space Constellations Contribution to Robust Networked C2 in DMO and JADC2
No full textNPS NRP Executive SummaryPersistent low-Earth orbit (P-LEO) or non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) communication satellites provide a critical digital communication link to enable distributed maritime operations (DMO) where naval forces distribute lethality and reduce operational signatures from hostile forces. The objective of this research is to evaluate the threat to P-LEO data links and to consider potential countermeasures. This study evaluated the threats to P-LEO communications links, surveying the threat vectors and quantifying their potential effects. The study focused on electronic jamming of the satellite downlink, the most likely threat that denies a surface vessel critical information. The study modelled three naval scenarios with a variety of air and ground jammers over a set of range-to-jammer and jammer-effective radiated power. The link analysis considered dynamic ship behaviors to derive the regions of acceptable operations and denied communication operations. Measures to counter adversary jamming are considered and described.Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)N2/N6 - Information Warfar
Enhancement of Active and Passive SWIR Imaging Using Artificial Intelligence
Get PDFShort Wave Infrared (SWIR) sensors provide imaging capabilities for various military targeting and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) applications. When imaging outdoors over long distances, SWIR images often exhibit aberrations such as blurring and distortion due to atmospheric effects and other optical aberrations in the imaging platform. The overall objective of this project is to apply state-of-the-art AI deep learning techniques to develop a software model that enhances SWIR image quality in real time. Unlike traditional deep learning-based image deblurring methods, the proposed deep learning architecture enables concurrent training of the optical aberration prediction model and the image enhancement model, resulting in significantly improved performance in compensating for optical aberrations and recovering the pristine image. The deep learning techniques developed in this project will be applicable to a wide range of other imaging applications.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Naval Postgraduate SchoolOffice of Naval Researc
Thermally Protective Composite Articles and Associated Methods and Wetsuits
Get PDFA flexible, thermally-insulating composite article includes: a base layer; a plurality of teeth extending from the base layer; and grooves extending between the teeth to enable the teeth to converge. The composite article may be in the form of a pad insertable into a pocket associated with a wetsuit
Faces of NPS: Mark Weatherford
No full textFaces of NPS features Interviews spotlighting the students, faculty, staff and alumni of our Nation's premier defense education and research institution
Multi-Parameter Analysis of an Airship for ASW Defense of the US
No full textThis study supports sponsor decision-making by evaluating the viability of a modern airshipas a cost-effective, persistent Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) asset for U.S. coastal defense. The goal is to reduce operational strain on high-demand platforms and provide a credible alternative to expensive, limited-use systems during both peacetime and contingency operations. The methodology for this study follows a traditional systems analysis systems engineering approach. The first phase of this study used a student group of four naval officers to examine the use of the airship in a proposed operational environment. The students assessed different equipment options as a part of determining platform effectiveness. The second phase involved a group of four systems engineering students with an ASW background. Their goal was to develop the system requirements as they would be found in a government request for proposal. The third phase involved the principal investigator using ChatGPT to investigate the research questions and originally proposed. ChatGPT was used primarily as a search engine to overcome the deficiencies of Bing and Chrome. ChatGPT was also used to organize the search results. Finally, a student analyzed the airship concept as a product line. The output of his thesis was a description of the product line cost model that could be used going forward. This research uses historical precedent and emerging technologies to explore how unconventional platforms might supplement or relieve pressure on high-demand ASW assets in both peacetime and conflict scenarios.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research ProgramCommander, Third Flee
Depth-Independent Blast-Resistant Thermally-Insulating Ballistically-Protective and Ergonomically-Improved Segmented Diver Suit
No full textA segmented diving suit includes a base layer and a plurality of composite plates arranged on the base layer in a configuration designed to avoid joints or other anatomical features that bend. The composite plates include a spheres or micro-spheres dispersed/embedded in a carrier polymer. The spheres or microspheres provide one or more of thermal protection, sonic/blast resistance, and ballistic protection
Machine Learning Models for Cyber Operations
Get PDFThis work is motivated by the need to model offensive and defensive cyber operations, where the goal is to balance offensive and defensive cyber operations for a given budget or effort constraint, in the face of a non-strategic opponent. Currently, Fleet Cyber Command receives four percent of Navy funding. The Navy funds three cyberspace operations—surface, subsurface, and air—given current priorities. Therefore, Navy cyber must provide the best possible effect on a relatively small budget. As technology advances, cyber will assume a more prominent role in operations, and a there is a need to understand how the effectiveness of cyber forces will impact future wars. The study explores the intersection of decision theory, specifically influence diagrams, and neural networks in modeling cyber operation funding decisions. The research attempts to maximize utility by determining the optimal funding allocations for the three cyberspace operations by leveraging a neural network trained while accounting for the effectiveness of Blue Force’s intelligence and adversarial influence. The model attempts to capture near-real-world scenarios, within classification limitations, to evaluate how funding decisions impact the efficacy of cyber operations.This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)U.S. Fleet Forces CommandNaval Research Progra
Neither Confirm nor Deny—The U.S. Navy’s Declaratory Policy on Nuclear Weapons Nuclear Weapons
No full textThe article of record as published may be found at https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol78/iss2/