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A FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING SIMULATION CONCEPTUAL MODEL DOCUMENTATION METHODS
Get PDFIncludes Supplementary MaterialThis research examines the nuances of simulation conceptual model (SCM) documentation and how it is used in the context of littoral kill webs by the Marine Corps. A brief survey of current SCM documentation methods and interviews from modeling and simulation subject matter experts were used to create a framework for evaluating the documentation of an SCM. The evaluation framework consisted of five evaluation criteria: accuracy, usability, modifiability, reusability, and interoperability. For a given SCM, the degree to which each criterion is exhibited within the documentation is evaluated on a scale from one to five, with one being little to no evidence of exhibition and a five indicating a great degree of presence within the SCM documentation. The framework was then applied to two SCMs within the littoral fires domain, each utilizing different documentation methods, in order to test the viability of the framework. The result of the application of the evaluation framework was a series of scores produced for each documentation method. The importance of these metrics is that they provide an element of increased objectivity for the modeler when deciding which documentation method to use for a given SCM. Additionally, the test cases highlighted some important gaps within the framework and provided suggestions for future work to address these shortfalls.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Captain, United States Marine CorpsNPS Naval Research ProgramThis project was funded in part by the NPS Naval Research Program
A DATA-DRIVEN APPROACH TO PREDICTING AUSTRALIAN BUSHFIRES
No full textBushfires are one of the most destructive and prevalent natural disasters on Earth. For Australians, they are an annual certainty, with severe consequences for people, the environment, and the economy. We explore the effectiveness of Machine Learning techniques in predicting monthly bushfire occurrences in southeastern Australia. Using historical bushfire data, meteorological variables, vegetation cover, and climatic indices aggregated monthly across spatial grids, we evaluate models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting. Due to significant class imbalance, a Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) is applied. Model performance is assessed through rolling horizon validation, prioritizing ROC-AUC metrics. Results indicate ensemble models combining Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting methods yield informative probabilistic predictions. We effectively identify higher-risk areas, in spite of the limitations of binary classifiers. Future work should incorporate higher-resolution data and ignition-specific predictors to further enhance predictive capability and operational utility.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Captain, Australian Arm
STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY TO VIOLENT SOCIAL MOVEMENTS IN GUATEMALA
No full textThis thesis examines the structural vulnerability of Guatemala to the potential emergence of violent social movements. Using a mixed-method approach—event-history (survival) analysis and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA)—the study analyzes 91 insurgent movements across 19 Latin American countries. It identifies six key factors that influence insurgent success: access to natural resources, government corruption, life expectancy, education level, electoral integrity, and group origin. The results show that violent mobilizations are rarely driven by grievances alone. Instead, specific configurations of enabling conditions—such as high corruption, low life expectancy, weak electoral systems, and resource access—consistently appear in victorious insurgencies. Guatemala currently exhibits several of these risk factors, including a high corruption score, low defense spending, declining human development indicators, and limited state territorial control. The thesis argues that these structural conditions mirror those present in historical insurgencies and may catalyze renewed violent mobilization. It recommends incorporating predictive modeling into intelligence workflows, increasing state presence in rural regions, and using sociopolitical indicators to guide counterinsurgency strategies. The study offers strategic value for policymakers and military planners by operationalizing social movement theory and identifying early warning signs that can inform preventive interventions.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Captain, Guatemalan Arm
NAVY SECURITY FORCE (NSF) RETENTION ANALYSIS
No full textThis study analyzes and assesses the shortcomings of the Navy Security Force personnel footprint, specifically as it pertains to the current retention challenges NSF faces. The NSF is critical to the Navy’s mission, ensuring the safety of naval assets. Despite the force’s criticality, retention of personnel is a persistent issue likely due to factors including salary, pension, work-life balance, job duties, and military requirements. By analyzing data received from the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) and the Pentagon, the study employs statistical techniques, including trend line analysis, to identify the most prominent factors contributing to this issue. The analysis found that Navy Security Forces earn up to 45% less than local law enforcement in key states, face limited career growth, and show a notable trend where women—despite comprising only 10% of the force—exhibit consistently higher retention rates than men.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Ensign, United States NavyEnsign, United States NavyNPS Naval Research ProgramThis project was funded in part by the NPS Naval Research Program
Revamped Bullard Hall Signals a New Era in NPS Modernization for Enhanced Education and Innovation
No full textQUANTIFYING TURBIDITY IN THE NEARSHORE OCEAN
No full textNaval mine countermeasure operations in the littorals depend on water visibility; however, turbid behavior in nearshore environments is largely unknown. This study investigates turbidity in the nearshore/lagoon environment to the 15 m isobath, in relation to hydrodynamic regimes of the Pajaro River estuary in Monterey Bay, California. Observations were made on how turbidity changes through a tidal river into the open ocean, over space and time, and whether the drivers are tides, waves, precipitation, or river discharge. Pairs of turbidity sensors at the top and bottom of the water column gathered data at various sites, along with salinity, temperature, pressure, and current. Data were collected from the October dry season continuously through April into the rainy season. Pajaro River discharge, local wave conditions, and tides were compared with observed turbidity. Findings indicate that the river regime is the dominant forcing mechanism. Shifts in turbidity behavior were also noted as rainfall increased. Tidal impacts were determined to be minimal; however, some indications suggest infragravity wave energy infiltration into the lagoon on flood tides may modulate turbidity signals. The U.S. Navy currently does not measure or forecast turbidity, and this study supports the need for such capabilities. Further study is needed to confirm results and determine definitive drivers of turbidity.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Ensign, United States Nav
Faces of NPS: Capt. Leah Hedgcorth
No full textFaces of NPS features Interviews spotlighting the students, faculty, staff and alumni of our Nation’s premier defense education and research institution
OPTIMAL STAFFING MODEL FOR NAVSUP WAREHOUSE OPERATIONS
No full textOur research explores the development of a staffing model for Naval Supply Systems Command (NAVSUP) warehouse operations. NAVSUP currently lacks formalized manpower staffing standards for key warehouse functions and instead relies on staffing decisions based on annual financial constraints, which results in ad hoc, potentially sub-optimal staffing levels. Our study develops a staffing model based on workload analyses and time studies for key warehouse operations such as receiving, stowing, picking, packing, shipping, and inventory management with the aim to establish clear workload standards and accurate staffing projections. The model can be used to refine current staffing practices at NAVSUP Fleet Logistics Centers (FLCs) as well as to identify opportunities for technology integration. Our research enables NAVSUP to establish accurate staffing levels to meet operational demands, improve efficiency, and support decision-making for future warehouse operations.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Outstanding ThesisLieutenant, United States NavyLieutenant Commander, United States Nav
ATHLETIC PARTICIPATION AT THE UNITED STATES NAVAL ACADEMY AND CAREER RETENTION
Get PDFThe United States Naval Academy (USNA) places emphasis on participation in sports prior to admission and during attendance at the school. Traits developed in these programs may serve to advance the mission of USNA to develop midshipmen and graduate leaders. Another expectation of midshipmen is that they will be dedicated to a career in naval service. Each of these mission areas are referenced in the USNA Strategic Plan 2030. This study reviews performance data from several thousand USNA graduates and analyzes their time in the service. Data for this study was collected from previous research conducted by Dr. Michael Insler at USNA. His work compiled survey data from USNA graduates and personal data obtained via the USNA Department of Institutional Research. This study focuses on graduates from class years of 1988 to 2015. The goal of this study is to learn about the relationship between athletic participation at various levels while at USNA to dedication to service in the U.S. Navy. Linear regression conducted indicated no statistical difference in retention of athletes vs. non-athletes as the 5-, 10-, and 15-year mark. Based on these results, the authors recommend more targeted studies of specific sports teams or other indications of fleet performance.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Lieutenant, United States NavyLieutenant, United States NavyLieutenant, United States NavyLieutenant, United States Nav
ENHANCING NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS: A SWOT ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC HEALTH PREPAREDNESS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS
No full textCOVID-19 underscored significant inefficiencies in the coordination between public health preparedness (PHP) and emergency management (EM) in the United States. PHP, primarily led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), focuses on disease surveillance and outbreak response; EM, overseen by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is structured around disaster response and resource coordination. This separation has resulted in fragmented operations, jurisdictional conflicts, and challenges in integrating public health efforts with broader emergency response. This thesis applies Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats analysis to examine the effectiveness of PHP and EM in achieving the National Preparedness Goal. PHP’s strengths include its specialized focus on public health emergencies and legal authorities for rapid emergency declarations but there are weaknesses in workforce shortages and inconsistent integration with the National Incident Management System (NIMS). EM’s strengths lie in its frameworks, particularly through NIMS and the Incident Command System, but it faces challenges with funding, workforce attrition, and the expanding complexity of disaster response. Opportunities exist for improved cross-agency collaboration and expanded mitigation strategies, yet increasing disaster complexity threatens national preparedness. This study recommends stabilizing funding, clarifying leadership roles, and enhancing collaboration.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Civilian, Wright County Health and Human Service