Naval Postgraduate School
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STRATEGIC ALIGNMENT AT SPEED: MODERNIZING NSW’S CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
Get PDFThis capstone investigates how Naval Special Warfare (NSW) can modernize its capability development process by integrating digital tools and mission engineering principles, with a specific focus on improving Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities, and Policy (DOTmLPF-P) analysis. Through structured interviews, stakeholder engagement, and a culminating design workshop, this research identified the current process of DOTmLPF-P analysis to be time-consuming, labor-intensive, and lacking analytical transparency. The project proposes a digital decision-support tool tailored to NSW’s operational context to accelerate capability assessments, improve traceability, and align resource decisions with mission outcomes. The capstone also recommends a broader shift from the traditional “Acquisition Kill Chain” toward a more agile “Acquisition Kill Web” model, enhancing adaptability in dynamic threat environments. By aligning innovation, strategy, and operational relevance, this research offers a roadmap for NSW and similar organizations seeking to institutionalize digital transformation in capability development. It concludes by outlining a flexible, iterative research agenda for future stakeholders to build on this foundation.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Lieutenant Commander, United States NavyLieutenant Commander, United States Nav
PREPARED OR PRECARIOUS? U.S. GOVERNMENT READINESS IN THE FACE OF BIOLOGICAL TERRORISM
Get PDFThe threat of biological terrorism is constantly evolving, and concerns about biological threats were heightened by the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. This thesis argues that while U.S. biodefense strategies and policies have significantly improved since the Bush administration, vital gaps remain and the U.S. government is unprepared to defend against future attacks. Through an analysis of three case studies, the 1984 Rajneeshee Salmonella attacks, the 1995 Aum Shinrikyo attacks, and the 2001 Anthrax attacks, this thesis identifies shortcomings in past biodefense strategies and highlights ongoing weaknesses in interagency coordination and partnerships, education and training, and investment in biodefense. The research further examines the biodefense strategies of post-9/11 presidential administrations, analyzes current biodefense readiness and response capabilities, and reviews the challenges and limitations that U.S. biodefense strategies face. This thesis also discusses the potential effect the COVID-19 pandemic may have on the biothreat landscape. The findings indicate that the lessons from past incidents remain relevant today and can inform efforts to close existing gaps in the nation’s biodefense. This thesis concludes with proposals for future research aimed at enhancing national preparedness and improving strategies to prevent, detect, and respond to future biothreats.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Lieutenant, United States Nav
ABOVE AND BEYOND: A ROADMAP FOR THE MILITARY AIRWORTHINESS CERTIFICATION FOR HYBRID AIR VEHICLES
No full textGiven the U.S. Navy's (USN) 62-year hiatus from lighter-than-air programs, this research addresses the challenges of aligning military airworthiness standards with civilian certification frameworks and the complexities of certifying a new foreign-developed type aircraft (TA). The objective of this research is to evaluate and develop a new roadmap for the USN airworthiness certification (flight clearance) process for hybrid air vehicles, utilizing the Hybrid Air Vehicles Airlander 10 as a case study. An extensive literature review and comparative analysis utilizing process analytics identified a pathway and projected timeline for achieving airworthiness certification and acquiring a hybrid air vehicle for the Department of the Navy (DON). This research concludes with a look at future airworthiness technology and how it can address the challenges of this new TA with military systems integration. This research provides critical insights for Naval Air Systems Command while bridging the gap between civil and military organizations and advancing aviation technologies for national security use. This research supports the USN's Force Design 2045, the Department of Defense (DOD) Middle Tier of Acquisition process, and an executive order titled Modernizing Defense Acquisition and Spurring Innovation in the Defense Industrial Base.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Lieutenant Commander, United States Nav
Faces of NPS: Capt. Anthony Burns, USAF
No full textFaces of NPS features Interviews spotlighting the students, faculty, staff and alumni of our Nation’s premier defense education and research institution.Link to video can be found at: https://youtu.be/tzcly4J9GQQ?si=XPsoyliXYrjIbNC
NAVIGATING THE INFORMATION WARFARE LANDSCAPE: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE INDONESIAN ARMY TERRITORIAL COMMAND IN THE ERA OF 21ST CENTURY GLOBAL POWER COMPETITION
No full textIn the 21st century, warfare extends beyond physical battlefields into the digital information environment, where state and non-state actors seek influence without direct confrontation. This thesis examines the Indonesian Army Territorial Command’s challenges and opportunities in this evolving information warfare landscape amid Great Power Competition. Using qualitative methods—literature review, case studies, and doctrinal analysis—this study applies a diplomatic, information, military, and economic (DIME) strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis framework to assess Indonesia’s strategic position. Findings highlight strong civil-military structures and public trust but reveal weaknesses in digital capabilities, cyber literacy, and coordinated information defense. Territorial units remain limited in digital engagement, and artificial intelligence (AI) driven disinformation poses growing risks. Nonetheless, opportunities lie in interagency collaboration, public-private partnerships, and regional cooperation. The thesis recommends enhancing digital literacy, modernizing territorial functions to include cyber capabilities, reforming legal frameworks, and strengthening partnerships across sectors. Addressing these gaps will bolster national resilience, counter foreign influence, and enhance Indonesia’s role in regional stability amid 21st-century strategic competition.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Major, Indonesian Arm
BEARS IN THE SAHEL: ASSESSING RUSSIA’S INFLUENCE IN MALI AND NIGER AMID REGIONAL INSTABILITY
No full textRussia’s growing role in the Sahel reflects a strategic effort to expand influence through low-cost, high-impact tools. This study investigates Russia’s use of military, economic, diplomatic, and informational instruments of power in Mali and Niger between 2019 and 2024 to assess whether these efforts have aligned local regimes with Moscow’s objectives. Through comparative case studies, the research evaluates the scope, effectiveness, and sustainability of Russian influence. Evidence was drawn from policy documents, open-source reporting, UN voting patterns, and media analysis.Findings show that while Russia has entrenched itself as Mali’s primary security partner, initially via the Wagner Group and now through the rebranded Africa Corps, it has not delivered long-term stability. In Niger, security cooperation remains largely symbolic. Russia’s strongest gains have been in the diplomatic and information domains, where it has successfully countered Western influence, contributing to the departure of European forces from Mali and the U.S. withdrawal from Niger in 2024. Economic engagement remains shallow and politically driven. The study concludes that Russia’s approach in the Sahel relies less on sustained investment and more on opportunistic exploitation of instability. Western policymakers must respond by strengthening economic ties, countering disinformation, and supporting local civil society to offer tangible alternatives to Russian influence.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Oberstleutnant i.G., German Arm
PREDICTING FUTURE STRUGGLES FROM PRELIMINARY FLIGHT SCHOOL EVALUATIONS AND TESTING THE VALIDITY OF THE CURRENT CUMULATIVE GRADING SYSTEM
No full textThe problem this study examines is whether or not the current policy for Naval Flight Training, specifically maintaining a running, or cumulative, total of unsatisfactory scores throughout all training phases, is the best way of evaluating aviators. Our approach is to use analytical models including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines, and Random Forests to examine how well student performance in later stages of flight school can be predicted by their performance in early stages. We also examine the statistical characteristics of the grades of students who fail an event early in the program. We find that the Support Vector Machine and Random Forest models, using early flight school events to predict performance in follow-on events, are accurate in their predictions. Within the models, we are also able to identify individual events in flight school that are highly indicative of future performance. Statistical analysis of the students with an early unsatisfactory performance reveals little evidence that these students are being evaluated differently than their peers. We find there is no conclusive evidence that students who have an unsatisfactory performance are being negatively impacted by their early failures.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Ensign, United States Nav
SYSTEMATIC APPROACH TO MANAGING HUMAN TRAFFICKING RISKS IN DEFENSE CONTRACTING
No full textThe Department of Defense (DOD) faces growing scrutiny over its ability to prevent human trafficking, particularly forced labor, in its overseas construction contracts. Despite the USG zero-tolerance policy and various compliance measures, oversight bodies have repeatedly found that the DOD’s efforts are fragmented, reactive, and insufficiently risk-informed. This study proposes the integration of the OMB’s Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework, as outlined in Circular A-123, into the DOD’s Combating Trafficking in Persons (CTIP) program. Through qualitative analysis of policy documents, federal regulations, and oversight reports, this research maps current CTIP practices against ERM’s five core risk management phases: identification, assessment, response, monitoring, and communication. The study reveals significant gaps across the contract lifecycle, particularly in pre-award planning and post-award oversight. To address these gaps, the study presents a comprehensive ERM-integrated CTIP framework designed to shift the DOD’s approach from reactive enforcement to proactive risk management. Recommendations include implementing trafficking risk screening tools, enhancing contractor vetting, standardizing monitoring practices, and improving interagency data sharing. The proposed framework aims to better protect vulnerable laborers, strengthen contractor accountability, and ensure the DOD’s contracting practices align with both ethical standards and legal mandatesDistribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Major, United States Arm