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Russia’s Strategic Recalibration After the Ukraine Conflict: Implications for the Two Near-Peer Competitors Strategic Environment
Get PDFNPS NRP Executive SummaryThis research examines the scope and strategic implications of the growing alignment of Russian and Chinese interests and power since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It also traces the contours of an updated deterrence framework, tailored to contain the aggression of these two increasingly insecure and assertive autocracies. The research consists of four separate studies. The first analyzes the revisions of Russia’s nuclear posture, announced in the fall of 2024, and how these changes might affect Russia’s strategic behavior and the dynamics of the emerging trilateral strategic competition between the United States, Russia and China. The second study explores the Taiwanese perspectives on the conflict in Ukraine, particularly its perceived reflections on cross-strait tensions with China and a possible Chinese aggression against Taiwan. The third study analyzes the state of the Russian military-industrial complex and the implications for Russia’s ability to sustain the war against Ukraine, as well as on its economic dependence on China. The fourth study examines the perspectives of key European allies on deterrence against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the growing competition and antagonism with China.Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)N3/N5 - Plans & Strateg
Rapidly Developed Counter-Drone Prototype Succeeds at NATO’s Bold Machina: Ukrainians' Insights Focus Efforts at Naval Postgraduate School's JIFX
Get PDFRequirements Analysis: Ground Force Commander Drill Implementation
Get PDFNPS NRP Executive SummaryDuring Naval Special Warfare’s (NSW) Junior Officer Training Course (JOTC), team leaders are limited in the number of repetitions to hone their tactical decision-making skills during Ground Force Commander (GFC) Drills. Structured as table-top exercises, GFC Drills are used during and after JOTC to create environments for team leaders to make decisions in a tactical environment employing various assets, systems, and capabilities. Following the drill, the after-action review (AAR) process is not sufficiently structured, so participants are receiving feedback that is both non-standardized and non-repeatable. This research seeks to improve GFC Drills through the analysis and refinement of requirements drafted to field a virtual training system. Our research team will survey and assess existing modeling and simulation (M&S) tools and report on their ability to enhance the realism of GFC Drills. To identify the right tools, we will study the GFC training and readiness objectives. This task analysis will enable our research team to map training requirements to the existing capabilities of constructive simulation systems and mixed reality (xR) displays. Our research will be conducted in close coordination with NSW students from the Defense Analysis (DA) Department, and there will be an opportunity to integrate this work into the curriculum through guided discussions and technology demonstrations during DA4500, Special Topics in Strategic Analysis. Since this work is intended to be executed as a thesis or capstone project, we will deliver a final report and presentation detailing our analysis and findings. We also plan to partner with the Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation (MOVES) Institute to continue to assess M&S tools as they evolve due to technology enhancements.This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpN8 - Integration of Capabilities & Resource
Application of AI for Automatic Aimpoint Selection for HEL
No full textThe objective of this project was to improve reliability and accuracy for the application of artificial intelligence (AI) for autonomous aimpoint selection for High Energy Laser (HEL) systems. Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) has done considerable development work in this area including development of AI algorithms, development of target image data, and testing on different target trajectories, both by simulations and experiments. Research was performed in four areas: (1) Quantify model prediction reliability. Monte Carlo node dropout concept in AI model was used to quantify model prediction reliability. It was found that for target which was not included in training the AI model, the mean error and error variance were significantly higher for different node dropouts in comparison to targets included in training the model. (2) Improve accuracy of aimpoint selection prediction, by comparing two AI algorithms. HRNet and Keypoint R-CNN were evaluated. It was found that HRNet has pose ambiguity issues, resulting in higher prediction error in comparison to Keypoint R-CNN. (3) Solve the ambiguity of pose that is a major source of error in predicting UAV aimpoint selection. It was found that the predictive estimation filter developed under this project was effective to solve the pose ambiguity problem. (4) Compare accuracy of predicting aimpoint selection for training the AI model for the same UAVs, but with synthetic image data versus real image data. It was found that using syntheticApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research ProgramOffice of Naval Researc
Global Security and Strategic Competition: Maritime Battlespace
No full textThis research study examined Illegal, Unreported, Unregulated (IUU) fishing from a maritime security perspective in the Gulf of Guinea by analyzing case studies on six Gulf of Guinea countries: Angola, Cameroon, Gabon, Ghana, Nigeria, and Senegal. Additionally, the study aimed to determine how emerging threats influenced IUU fishing in the Gulf of Guinea and how varying approaches from Gulf of Guinea nations to counter IUU fishing impacted regional cooperation and security. The study argued that leveraging existing tools and new innovative technologies could significantly improve monitoring capabilities and governance and enhance the maritime security landscape of the Gulf of Guinea. Additionally, understanding the domestic and regional responses of Gulf of Guinea nations through an analysis of the political dynamics within these countries helped identify the most effective strategies for combating IUU fishing in these regions.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Naval Research ProgramOPNAV N7
Performance Evaluation and Promotion Recommendation: Best Practices for Selection Boards
Get PDFThis study examines how Navy promotion and selection boards process information from performance evaluation reports and other records to determine promotions. These records contain a large amount of information presented in a form that does not readily facilitate rapid, accurate information processing. As the Navy continues to transform its Performance Evaluation System to be in alignment with “Get Real Get Better” behaviors, it is crucial to identify where cognitive habits or existing practices might hinder accurate promotion decisions. We focus on three key questions: 1). how board members process information, 2). the friction points that lead to cognitive errors under load, and 3). the best practices for designing tools that address these issues. To explore these questions, structured interviews and think-aloud protocols were conducted with Navy and Marine Corps promotion board members to assess their experiences processing information with current decision support tools. We also developed and presented alternative decision support tools to board members for their feedback. Findings highlight three major challenges. First, board members face time pressures, exacerbating cognitive load and leading to decision fatigue. Second, while Navy board members focus on contextual information to evaluate candidates, Marine board members are more focused on the actual performance records. Third, board members rely on “lay theories” or personal standards to evaluate candidates, which introduces bias and inconsistency. While alternative machine learning tools were seen as helpful for post-decision analysis, board members preferred human judgment to remain central. To improve the promotion board process, we recommend the Navy and Marine Corps address the challenges posed by time constraints and idiosyncratic lay judgementsApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)N1 Manpower, Personnel, Training & Education;
Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Progra
Underwater Composite Patch Repair Process for Ships and Amphibious Vehicles
Get PDFNPS NRP Executive SummaryThe use of aluminum construction in the Independence-class (LCS-2) Littoral Combatant Ship and Spearhead-class (EPF) Expeditionary Fast Transport has allowed for improvements in speed and efficiency but also presents challenges for repairs. The U.S. Navy (USN) does not currently have an approved underwater wet welding procedure for aluminum, and hyperbaric welding is at an interim stage. Therefore, a means of diver-applied on-the-spot repair while forward deployed is highly desirable. A similar opportunity for on-site repair exists for U.S. Marine Corps (USMC) amphibious vehicles, which could sustain damage during landing operations and require quick and effective water-tight repair.
The objective of this study was to examine the feasibility of composite underwater patch repair to perform spot-repairs on damaged hull panels of ships and amphibious vehicles. Currently, the offshore oil and gas industry utilizes composite patches for repair of structural components such as pipelines. Additionally, aging civil engineering infrastructure has been reinforced with wrapped composite plies. These developments have led to commercially available epoxies which allow for curing while submerged. Industry practices for this type of repair were examined for suitability of translation to shipboard application. Previous USN experience with top-side composite patch applications on aluminum superstructures of cruisers was reviewed as a baseline procedure. Ship inspections of EPF and LCS vessels, discussions with Navy Divers at a Regional Maintenance Center (RMC) Dive Locker, as well as Marine maintainers at an Assault Amphibian Battalion (AABn), assisted in determination of end-user needs and repair scenarios for which a patch spot-repair is feasible. Prior work on composite patch strength, adhesion, and fatigue resistance was also incorporated. A portable patching kit was presented for consideration, with pre-cut plies of various sizes, epoxy for on-site wet layup, and hand tools for layup and application to the repair area.Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)ASN(RDA) - Research, Development, and Acquisitio
THE FUTURE OF FINGERPRINT EVIDENCE: THE IMPACT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON COMPARISON AND ADMISSIBILITY
Get PDFFingerprint identification is a cornerstone of forensic science but has been scrutinized for subjectivity and legal reliability. This thesis examines the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in improving fingerprint comparison, enhancing examiner conclusions, and ensuring legal admissibility. By evaluating AI tools, legal precedents, and forensic technology acceptance, the research highlights key advancements. AI-driven image processing can clarify poor-quality prints, machine learning models provide statistical analysis for standardized conclusions, and large language models (LLMs) assist in generating precise, consistent expert reports. LLMs also offer training benefits, integrating statistical reasoning into examiner decision-making and improving courtroom communication. These advancements address longstanding concerns about bias and inconsistency, demonstrating AI’s potential to refine forensic science and legal application. The thesis emphasizes developing scalable frameworks and fostering interdisciplinary collaboration to integrate AI responsibly while meeting evidentiary standards. This thesis ultimately argues that responsible AI integration can modernize fingerprint identification science while reinforcing its reliability in forensic investigations and legal proceedings.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Civilian, Massachusetts State Polic
FROM POLICY TO PRACTICE: EVALUATING PLANNING, PROGRAMMING, BUDGET, AND EXECUTION REFORM RECOMMENDATIONS
Get PDFThe DoD Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution (PPBE) process is a critical but outdated framework for resource allocation. Our study uses recommendations from the Commission on PPBE Reform, established by the FY2022 National Defense Authorization Act. Our hypothesis is that the Commission’s recommendations can improve the adaptability and efficiency of the PPBE process to better align it with the National Defense Strategy (NDS) to meet defense challenges. We also hypothesize that some recommendations may have lower initial resistance, but each requires analyzing their impacts on interconnected factors at the operational DoD level. Of the 28 proposed recommendations, we selected four to analyze based on their potential to increase efficiency, flexibility, and fiscal accountability. Using the Burke-Litwin Change Model, we evaluated recommendations such as replacing PPBE with the Defense Resourcing System (DRS), transform the budget structure, increase flexibility in operating funds, and update below-threshold reprogramming values. Our analysis showed that these recommendations improve organizational responsiveness and decision-making efficiency. Challenges with stakeholder resistance and implementation complexity were identified but can be mitigated using phased adoption and communication strategies. Our findings highlight the potential of these reforms, offering actionable methods to modernize DoD resource management while addressing evolving defense challenges.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Captain, United States Air ForceCaptain, United States Air Forc