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Simulering av Elektricitetspriser med Volatiliteter beroende av Dolda Markovprocesser
No full textThe dynamics of electricity prices are complex, and many actors in the energy industry aim to mitigate financial risks associated with price fluctuations. The increasing interest in renewable energy can also lead to sharper price increases, influenced by current energy supply and consumption levels. These dynamics can manifest itself as volatility shifts across different economic regimes, but further research on their predictive power is needed. This thesis analyzes and compares models for daily electricity prices from the Nord Pool market, spanning April 2018 to January 2025. Specifically, it compares an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process where volatilities depend on a hidden Markov process with a standard OU model without Markov-modulated volatility. The method proposed by Elliott et al. (2003) was adapted to estimate Markov-modulated volatilities, while other parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood. Volatility forecasts were generated and the properties of the white noise and confidence intervals were further investigated. The results demonstrate a major reduction in forecast errors when hidden Markov processes were incorporated and the negative logarithmic likelihood exhibited better performance under volatile market conditions. This suggests that incorporating economic regimes into volatility modeling is a valuable approach to capture abrupt changes in volatility. However, the assumption of normally distributed white noise appears to be inadequate and should be replaced with distributions that better account for heavy tails.Elektricitetsprisers dynamik är komplex, och många aktörer inom energiindustrin är beroende av att reducera finansiella risker kopplade till prissvängningar. Ett ökat intresse för förnybar energi kan leda till skarpare prisändringar, beroende på den aktuella energiproduktionen och konsumtionen. Dessa prisändringar kan beskrivas som volatilitetsskiften i ekonomiska regimer, men mer undersökning av hur väl dessa förutsäger prissvängningar behövs. Detta examensarbete analyserar och jämför hur väl olika Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) processer passar till daglig elektricitetsprisdata från Nord Pool, från april 2018 till januari 2025. Specifikt jämförs OU-processen, där volatiliteterna beror på dolda Markovprocesser, jämfört med en OU-process utan Markovtillstånd. Metoden från Elliott et al. (2003) har använts med vissa anpassningar för att estimera de Markov-modulerade volatiliteterna, medan maximum-likelihood har använts för andra parametrar. Volatilitetsprognoser har gjorts, och för att uttöka analysen har även det vita bruset och konfidensintervallen undersökts. Resultaten visar på en större minskning av prognosfelen när dolda Markovprocesser har utnyttjats, och dess negativa log-likelihood presterade bättre i turbulenta miljöer. Antagandet att det vita bruset är normalfördelat kan däremot förkastas och bör ersättas med fördelningar med tyngre svansar
Transgender people's experiences with health care and gender affirming care : A discourse analytical study
No full textDenna studie handlar om hur transpersoner beskriver sina erfarenheter och upplevelser av yrkesprofessionella, bemötande och vårdköer i hälso- och sjukvården och den könsbekräftande vården. Studien utgår från en diskursanalytisk metod som utforskar hur deras beskrivningar konstruerar vården och de yrkesprofessionella, samt hur erkännande och makt görs i diskurserna. Tidigare forskning visar att transpersoner ofta möts av okunskap från olika professioner, både i hur de ska förhålla sig i sitt bemötande och vilka medicinska behov de har. Detta gör att många känner oro och ångest inför vårdbesök och leder även till att många undviker att uppsöka vård. Datamaterialet i denna studie är inlägg och kommentarer från sociala internetforumen Reddit och Bluesky. I analysen identifierades fyra övergripande diskurser som bland annat handlar om hur transpersoner på olika sätt upplever att vården och yrkesprofessionella utgör hinder för de att få vår
Source Criticism as a Countermeasure: Strengthening Resilience Against Malign Information Influence : An Experimental Study on Education in Source Criticism as a Countermeasure Against Malign Information Influence
No full textThe rise of technological advancements, the internet, and globalisation have enabled antagonistic states to spread illegitimate information across borders. This harmful use of information, known as malignant information influence (MII), threatens liberal democracies and requires effective countermeasures. However, prior research on countermeasures highlights dilemmas and shortcomings, such as increased scepticism that undermines trust in all media. Addressing this gap, this study examines whether education in source criticism offers a more effective and democratic alternative by enhancing resilience to MII. Using a survey experiment with 192 Swedish respondents, this study examined the impact of education in source criticism on Swedish citizens’ ability to detect, mistrust, and refrain from sharing Russian media while still maintaining trust in Swedish news. Although results were statistically insignificant, notable patterns were seen: the education in source criticism appeared to increase resilience against Swedish media and decrease resilience against Sputnik. Additionally, respondents consistently rated the Swedish articles higher than the Russian ones, suggesting that Swedish citizens may already possess source criticism skills. These findings highlight the potential of source criticism to counter MII while safeguarding democratic values. However, the statistically insignificant results emphasise the need for further research to improve the results and better understand the role of education in source criticism in enhancing resilience to MII
The Crown That Never Withers : A Study of the New Testament's Use of Athletic Metaphors
No full textThis thesis examines the New Testament authors’ use of athletic metaphors and investigates their function in relation to the original recipient contexts. A systematic survey demonstrates that such metaphors are absent from the Gospels but appear with particular prominence in certain epistolary texts. A selection of these passages has been analyzed using traditional exegetical methods, alongside insights from conceptual metaphor theory and postcolonial hermeneutics. The cultural context of the metaphors is illuminated through an exploration of Greco-Roman athletic games and the influence of Hellenization on ancient Judaism. As comparative material, the Second Epistle of Clement, an early Christian text from The Apostolic Fathers, in which a similar metaphorical framework is found, is also included. The analysis shows that athletic metaphors are employed to articulate central aspects of faith in Christ as the risen Savior and to shape a collective identity among believers. By integrating the conceptual metaphor theory’s notion of blends with the postcolonial concept of third space, the study demonstrates how these metaphors contribute to the construction of an identity that calls for passive resistance and faithful endurance within a hostile surrounding culture. This identity exists within the Roman Empire but is not defined by it. The thesis concludes that this call to endurance and resistance represents a recurring theme throughout the New Testament, even in passages where athletic metaphors are not explicitly used.Uppsatsen behandlar de nytestamentliga författarnas användning av atletiska metaforer och undersöker deras funktion i förhållande till den ursprungliga mottagarkontexten. En systematisk genomgång visar att sådana metaforer är frånvarande i evangelierna men förekommer med särskild tyngd i vissa brevtexter. Ett urval av dessa textavsnitt har analyserats med traditionell exegetisk metodik samt med stöd av konceptuell metaforteori och postkolonial hermeneutik. De atletiska metaforernas kulturella kontext belyses genom en genomgång av de grekisk-romerska atletiska spelen och helleniseringens inflytande på judendomen. Som jämförelsematerial inkluderas även Andra Clemensbrevet, en tidig kristen text ur Apostoliska fäderna, där en liknande metaforik återfinns. Analysen visar att de atletiska metaforerna används för att gestalta centrala aspekter av tron på Kristus som den uppståndne Frälsaren, och för att forma en kollektiv identitet bland de troende. Genom att förena konceptuell metaforteoris blends med postkolonial teoris tredje rum, framträder hur metaforerna bidrar till skapandet av en identitet som uppmanar till passivt motstånd och trofast uthållighet i inom ramen för en fientlig omgivande kultur. Denna identitet existerar inom det romerska imperiet, men definieras inte av det. Uppsatsen visar att denna kallelse till uthållighet och motstånd utgör ett genomgående tema i Nya testamentet, även i avsnitt där atletiska metaforer inte förekommer
Letter from the Editor: A time of editorial transition and reflection on spaces, leadership, partnerships and inclusivity in Swedish education
No full textThe current issue features a total of eleven articles, offering a rich and diverse exploration of contemporary educational themes. Among these, nine are research articles that explore a wide range of topics, reflecting the dynamic and multifaceted nature of education in Sweden today. In addition, the issue includes one position article that presents a thought-provoking perspective on university-school research partnership work, and one book review essay that critically engages with a recent book on the economic governance of public welfare institutions, including schools. The contributions collectively address key areas such as the design and significance of educational spaces, the tension between political and educational leadership, and the evolving partnerships between universities and schools. They also explore inclusive education practices and the importance of reflective pedagogy in fostering meaningful learning experiences. Together, these articles provide valuable insights for educators, researchers, and policymakers, contributing to ongoing conversations about how to enhance educational practice and policy in diverse contexts
Att planera undervisning och bedöma i engelska utan kunskapskrav : En studie om hur årskurstrelärarna förhåller sig till en läroplan utan kunskapskrav
No full textÄven om engelska har varit ett obligatoriskt ämne i flera årtionden finns det fortfarande inga kunskapskrav i läroplanen. Detta examensarbetes forskningsfrågor framkom efter denna upptäckt. Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka hur lågstadielärare planerar och bedömer i engelska med avsaknaden av kunskapskrav samt utmaningar och möjligheter som lågstadielärare ställs inför i sitt arbete. Detta undersöktes genom en enkät med 41 deltagare. Materialet analyserades och diskuterades utifrån det ekologiska perspektivet och affordance. Resultatet visade att lågstadielärarna använder läroplanen i sin planering för att den är obligatorisk men söker även stöd från annat håll, så som tidigare lektionsplaneringar. Avsaknaden av kunskapskrav leder till att lågstadielärarna tolkar läroplanen olika, vilket leder till en osäkerhet om vad eleverna ska ha lärt sig när de slutar årskurs tre och att bedömningen blir orättvis för eleverna. Resultatet i detta examensarbete kan ge en inblick för nya lågstadielärare om hur dagens lågstadielärare arbetar inom engelskämnet utan kunskapskrav och varför lågstadielärare behöver konkreta kunskapskrav att utgå ifrån. Although English has been a compulsory subject for decades, there are still no knowledge requirements in the curriculum. The research questions of this thesis emerged from this discovery. The purpose of this study is to investigate how primary school teachers plan and assess in English with the lack of knowledge requirements as well as challenges and opportunities that primary school teachers face in their work. This was investigated through a survey with 41 participants. The material was analyzed and discussed from the ecological perspective and affordance. The results showed that the primary school teachers use the curriculum in their planning because it is mandatory but also seek support from other sources, such as previous planning. The lack of knowledge requirements leads to primary school teachers interpreting the curriculum differently, which leads to uncertainty about what the students should have learned when they finish the third grade and that the assessment is unfair for the pupils. The results of this thesis can give an insight for new primary school teachers about how today's primary school teachers work in the English subject without knowledge requirements and why primary school teachers need to proceed from concrete knowledge requirements.
Theology of sexuality : A theological contribution to the Uniting Church in Sweden
No full textIn this essay I investigate some of the theological thoughts about sexuality that are presented within the Uniting Church in Sweden (UCS) today, and how to develop those theological thoughts. To reach that purpose, I analyze Esther Kazens Feministpastorns tro och tvivel [the Feminst Pastor’s Faith and Doubt], USC:s official document Equmeniakyrkan och hbtq [UCS and LGBTQ] with help from Emma Audas Det heliga äktenskapet [the Holy Marriage]. My conclusions are that we need to understand love in the light of eros and agape where both aspects are equally important. Eros is not only about our sexual desire or reproduction, but also about our needs and wishes. God has created us humans with sexuality as a driving force which makes us seek connection with God and other human beings. Sexuality is linked to body, soul and spirit. It is connected to pleasure and desire. Sexuality also has the power to bring people closer in trust, vulnerability and love. Gender is an essential part of our identity, including our sexual identity. The differences in gender mirrors God’s diverse creation. Gender is linked to several parts of us, where sexual attraction and reproduction are some of those parts. Romantic love as an ideal has taken the place of God for many people in the west today. In a time where we do not show our vulnerability or weakness in front of others, the expectations of a love partner become unrealistic. Marriage can not be the only place where we allow each other to be vulnerable. Church has an important part to play here. Reproduction does not fulfill the purpose of sexuality, but is one dimension of it. Couples today can have more control over their reproduction because of the rise of contraception use. Biological parenthood is one of many ways to serve God. No matter what our lives look like, we should strive for a life directed toward God in which we grow together in love
The Role of Customer Segmentation in Churn Prediction
No full textIntroduction This thesis explores how clustering-based customer segmentation can enhance both the predictive performance and interpretability of churn prediction models in the online gaming industry. As acquiring new players is costlier than retaining existing ones, understanding and anticipating customer churn is vital for long-term profitability in this highly competitive, non-contractual environment. Research Question The central research question is: How can different customer segmentation methods, combined with daily behavioral and financial data, be used to develop and evaluate churn prediction models in the online gaming industry, and how do these segmentation approaches affect both model performance and interoperability? Method Using a design science research approach, I built a modular churn prediction pipeline that incorporated five segmentation methods: threshold-based segmentation, k-means, agglomerative clustering, Gaussian Mixture Models and HDBSCAN. Each was compared to a baseline with no segmentation, either as a feature in a single XGBoost model or through separate models per segment. The pipeline included behavioral, financial and trend-based features, SMOTE for class imbalance and SHAP for segment-level interpretability. All modeling was performed in Python using libraries such as scikit-learn, XGBoost and SHAP. Results Segmentation led to only minor improvements in predictive performance, with AUC and F1-score differences typically under 0.01 and no statistically significant gains in the single-model setup. However, segment-specific models revealed meaningful differences in churn behavior. HDBSCAN reached the highest accuracy of 0.8856 and AUC of 0.9366, although its interpretability was reduced by a large noise cluster. K-means and agglomerative clustering provided a more balanced trade-off between interpretability and performance, while threshold-based segmentation delivered intuitive business-aligned clusters. Feature importance analysis confirmed that distinct churn drivers emerged within each segment. Discussion The results show that segmentation brings value not through performance alone, but by enhancing the transparency and business relevance of churn models. Segment-specific modeling revealed heterogeneous churn signals that global models tended to obscure, reinforcing the idea that user behavior varies widely by group. While HDBSCAN offered the best raw performance, its output was harder to interpret in a practical setting due to its density-based structure. Threshold-based segmentation, on the other hand, created clearly defined clusters that aligned with known business personas, such as VIPs and Bonus Hunters. This made it easier to act on insights and translate model output into retention strategies. Overall, this thesis contributes a novel, comparative framework for integrating clustering-based segmentation into supervised churn prediction pipelines, with segment-level interpretability as a central evaluation criterion. Future research should explore time-aware segmentation, causal inference, and adaptive modeling pipelines that can support real-time decision-making while protecting user well-being
Development of a Person-Centred Coordinated Care Pathway in Swedish Healthcare for Low Back Pain
No full textIntroduction: This project aimed to develop a Person-Centred Co-ordinated Care (P3C) pathway for low back pain (LBP). Description: A national working group was formed consisting of representatives from all regional healthcare organisations in Sweden and included all relevant healthcare professions, academia, and patient organisations. A mixed method iterative design and consensus approach was applied in the development of the P3C pathway. Discussion: As a foundation, patient interviews along with a review of literature were conducted investigating the evidence base for healthcare interventions, earlier regional care programs/pathways and guidelines in Sweden as well as patient experiences and challenges with healthcare for LBP. Updated evidence-based clinical recommendations, tools supporting the practical use of the national P3C pathway and national healthcare data registry-based quality outcome indicators were then developed. Thereafter, an open consultation period provided review and feedback for final revisions and consensus. Conclusions: Essential factors for integrating best praxis according to scientific evidence and patient and healthcare professional perspectives were identified to establish a Swedish national P3C pathway for LBP. This provides a novel and innovative example of feasible methodology applicable in the international context. Future research will evaluate potential improvements in healthcare quality outcomes and effectiveness of dissemination and implementation strategies.Funding Agencies|Swedish government; Swedish Council of Local Authorities and Regions</p
Live eller inte live, det är frågan : Ett jämförande mellan inspelning genomförd live och i studio
No full textI detta arbete undersöks hur två olika inspelningsmetoder påverkar det klingande resultatet av en musikproduktion. De två inspelningsmetoderna kontrasterar i sin utformning, en består av en produktion som bygger på separata inspelningar, så kallade pålägg, medan den andra inspelningsmetoden bygger på en kollektiv inspelning genomförd samtidigt med en större ensemble. Som konsekvens av de två kontrasterande inspelningsmetoderna påverkas andra aspekter av musikproduktionsprocessen som tekniska resurser, inspelningsrummets utformning och musikernas framförande, som i sin tur också påverkar det klingande resultatet. Tre olika låtar med kontrasterande genre spelades in för att ett brett urval i datainsamlingen. Det klingande resultatet presenterades för en fokusgrupp som fick uttrycka sina åsikter om det givna materialet. Fokusgruppen föredrog enhetligt det klingande resultatet från inspelningen uppbyggd av pålägg då de ansåg att inspelningsmetodens tekniska förmåner påverkade musiken positivt. Men de ansåg även att inspelningen bestående av ensembleinspelningen hade en förmåga att förhöja musiken på grund av den förbättrade möjligheten till det kollektiva musicerandet.Korta urklipp ur dom sex produktioner som genomfördes under arbetet.Bilaga 1, Minuteman - StudioUpphovspersoner:- Kompositör: Samuel Eriksson- Arrangör: Samuel Eriksson- Producent: Samuel ErikssonMedverkande:- Samuel Eriksson (sång, gitarr, elbas, keyboard, inspelningstekniker)- Vilhelm Ax (trummor, slagverk)- Gutav Alte (gitarr)Bilaga 2, Minuteman - LiveUpphovspersoner:- Kompositör: Samuel Eriksson- Arrangör: Samuel Eriksson- Producent: Samuel ErikssonMedverkande:- Samuel Eriksson (sång, gitarr)- Amanda Alvekrans (trummor)- Anton Alexi Kröll (saxofon)- Axel Lindgren (trumpet 1)- Elias Khylström (inspelningstekniker)- Filip Ahlberg (keyboard)- Gustav Alte (gitarr)- Aaron Lindqvist (elbas)- Nora Jonsson (trombon)Bilaga 3, Mythomaniac - StudioUpphovspersoner:- Kompositör: Samuel Eriksson- Arrangör: Samuel Eriksson- Producent: Samuel ErikssonMedverkande:- Samuel Eriksson (sång, gitarr, programmering, inspelningstekniker)- Gustav Alte (gitarr)- Vilhelm Ax (trummor)- Brusk Zanganeh (violin 1)- Emelie Hörnlund (viola)- Filip Lundberg (cello)- Kristna Ebbersten (violin 2)- Melker Annas (trombon)Bilaga 4, Mythomaniac - LiveUpphovspersoner:- Kompositör: Samuel Eriksson- Arrangör: Samuel Eriksson- Producent: Samuel ErikssonMedverkande:- Samuel Eriksson (sång, gitarr)- Amanda Alvekrans (trummor)- Anton Alexi Kröll (saxofon)- Axel Lindgren (trumpet 1)- Elias Khylström (inspelningstekniker)- Filip Ahlberg (keyboard)- Gustav Alte (gitarr)- Aaron Lindqvist (elbas)- Nora Jonsson (trombon)Bilaga 5, Already Gone - StudioUpphovspersoner:- Kompositör: Samuel Eriksson- Arrangör: Samuel Eriksson- Producent: Samuel ErikssonMedverkande:- Samuel Eriksson (sång, gitarr, keyboard, inspelningstekniker)- Vilhelm Ax (slagverk)- Gutav Alte (gitarr)- Aaron Dutton (saxofon)- Annika Welander (trumpet 2)- Egon Hallström (trummor)- Nestor Högberg (bas)- Elias Khylström (sång)- Klara Åström (sång)- Filip Ahlberg (sång)- Karin Hammar (trombon)- Lisa Hallgren Olsson (sång)- Patrik Skogh (trumpet 1)- Rasmus Alfredsson (sång)Bilaga 6, Already Gone - LiveUpphovspersoner:- Kompositör: Samuel Eriksson- Arrangör: Samuel Eriksson- Producent: Samuel ErikssonMedverkande:- Samuel Eriksson (sång, gitarr)- Amanda Alvekrans (trummor)- Anton Alexi Kröll (saxofon)- Axel Lindgren (trumpet 1)- Elias Khylström (inspelningstekniker)- Filip Ahlberg (keyboard)- Gustav Alte (gitarr)- Aaron Lindqvist (elbas)- Nora Jonsson (trombon) </p