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Climate risks and forecasting stock market returns in advanced economies over a century
No full textIn this study, we contribute to the rapidly growing climate-finance literature by shedding light on the question of whether climate risks have predictive value for stock market returns. We measure climate risks in terms of both the change in the northern hemisphere temperature anomaly and its volatility and the change in the global temperature anomaly and its volatility. We study monthly data for eight advanced countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Switzerland, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US)). Our sample period runs from 1916 to 2021. We control for cross-market spillovers of stock market returns and volatility as well as other risks including oil-price returns and volatility, geopolitical risks, and the gold-to-silver price ratio as a measure of investor risk aversion. Given this large array of control variables, we apply the Lasso estimator to trace out the incremental predictive value of climate risks for subsequent stock market returns. We find that climate risks do not have systematic predictive value for subsequent stock market returns. We then extend our analysis in two ways. First, we show that climate risks have short-term out-of-sample predictive value for the connectedness of stock market returns. Second, we show that climate risks have predictive power for stock market returns when we study monthly historical UK data for the sample period from 1772 to 2021
Dynamic spillovers across precious metals and oil realized volatilities: Evidence from quantile extended joint connectedness measures
No full textThis paper proposes a novel quantile vector autoregressive extended joint connectedness framework to examine realized volatilities spillovers between oil and precious metals commodities using daily data from May 1st, 2006 until June 18th, 2021. Our findings suggest that crude oil is the main net transmitter of shocks in the network across all quartiles. The dynamic total connectedness is heterogeneous over time and driven by economic events. Interestingly, we see that the higher the quartile the more pronounced the net transmission mechanisms of realized volatilities. Notably, the net total directional and pairwise connectedness measures illustrate in most cases similar dynamics
A national-scale trophic state analysis to prioritize lakes for restoration in Aotearoa New Zealand
No full textPressure on lakes in Aotearoa New Zealand is increasing because of elevated catchment nutrient loads, establishment of non-native species, and climate change. Current government legislation requires that pressures are managed to avoid eutrophication and degradation of lake health. This approach requires information on the state of lakes at regional and national scales, which is challenging because 170 lakes with limited catchment protection and easy human access. Immediate attention should be given to protecting these waterbodies to prevent the need for costly and resource-intensive remediation in the future
Insights into the ecological impact of trout introduction in an oligotrophic lake using sedimentary environmental DNA
No full textIntroduced trout can induce trophic cascades, however, a lack of pre-introduction data limits knowledge on their impact in many lakes. Traditional paleolimnological approaches have been used to study historic species changes, but until recently these have been restricted to taxa with preservable body-parts. To explore the ecosystem effects of Salmo trutta (brown trout) introduction on an oligotrophic lake in Aotearoa-New Zealand, we used a multi-marker sedimentary environmental DNA (sedDNA) approach coupled with pigments to detect changes across multiple trophic levels. DNA was extracted from core depths capturing approximately 100 years before and after the expected arrival of S. trutta, and metabarcoding was undertaken with four primer sets targeting the 12S rRNA (fish), 18S rRNA (eukaryotes) and cytochrome c oxidase (COI; eukaryotes) genes. The earliest detection of S. trutta eDNA was 1906 (1892–1919 CE with 95% high probability density function) suggesting their introduction was shortly before this. Native fish diversity (12S and 18S rRNA) decreased after the detection of S. trutta, albeit the data was patchy. A shift in overall eukaryotic and algal communities (18S rRNA and COI) was observed around 1856 (1841–1871 CE) to 1891 (1877–1904 CE), which aligns with the expected S. trutta introduction. However, taxonomy could not be assigned to many of the 18S rRNA and COI sequences. Pigment concentrations did not change markedly after S. trutta introduction. SedDNA provides a new tool for understanding the impact of disturbances such as the introduction of non-native species; however, there are still several methodological challenges to overcome
Communicating natural hazard risks to Chinese visitors: A case study from New Zealand
Get PDFIntroduction: Research has shown that tourists are vulnerable to natural hazards during their travels. For this reason, communicating potential natural hazard risks to tourists prior to, and during, their journeys plays an important role in helping visitors safely navigate the natural hazards they may encounter. Tourists have different levels of vulnerability, depending on a range of personal, cultural and experiential factors, so risk communication must be appropriately targetted to particular markets. This research investigates supply side stakeholders' perceptions of the awareness of, and preparedness for, natural hazard risks amongst Chinese visitors to the West Coast of the South Island (Aotearoa New Zealand), and assesses the effectiveness of current risk communication processes and content for Chinese visitors.
Methods: The research questions are addressed through semi-structured interviews with representatives of government agencies and tourism businesses directly and/or indirectly involved in managing Chinese tourists' experiences and risk communication in the region, and supplemented with documentary analysis of strategy documents, social media and website resources.
Results: Applying a Mental Models Approach, results reveal that informants have relatively similar perspectives on Chinese tourists' awareness of natural hazard risks, irrespective of the nature of their interaction with the Chinese market, however there are some differences in their views of who should be responsible for risk communcation, and when and how that should be delivered.
Discussion: Chinese tourists' awareness and preparedness for natural hazards tends to be influenced by contextual differences more than cultural differences, and this is better understood by tourism stakeholders with personal contact with these tourists. There are perceived barriers to improving natural hazard risk preparedness, including the over-reliance on signage, and tourism stakeholders' reticence about sharing too much information about natural hazard risks with potential, or actual, visitors
Using Harakeke fibre in concrete
No full textHarakeke (Phormium tenax) is a monocotyledonous plant endemic to New Zealand. It shares structural and property similarities with other natural fibres, such as sisal, which have shown promise in improving certain concrete properties. This similarity suggests that harakeke fibres could also have potential benefits in concrete reinforcement. This study investigates the potential of using Harakeke fibres as a reinforcement material in concrete construction. Harakeke fibre-reinforced concrete was compared to plain concrete, steel fibre-reinforced concrete, and synthetic fibre-reinforced concrete. A total of 108 samples were prepared and tested at 7-day and 28-day intervals. The results demonstrate that Harakeke fibre-reinforced concrete provides reasonable performance in terms of flexural and tensile strength compared to steel or synthetic fibre-reinforced samples, however showing relatively less ductile behaviour. Overall, the preliminary results obtained from the project are promising. Further research and experiments are being planned to investigate other mixing scenarios and applications
Linking the uptake of best management practices on dairy farms to catchment water quality improvement over a 20-year period
No full textIntensive land use, such as dairying, can impair water quality. Although many guidelines exist on how to mitigate the loss of dairy-associated contaminants from land to water through best management practices (BMPs), few datasets exist on the success of implementation on-farm. Five dairy-dominated catchments (from 598 to 2480 ha) in New Zealand were studied from 2001 to 2020. The first period, from 2001 to 2010, involved comprehensive “extension” advice to farmers consisting of workshops, stream water quality and flow monitoring, farm practice surveys, and identified solutions to address site-specific contaminant losses. In the second period (2011−2020), termed “post-extension”, only water quality monitoring and farm practice surveys were continued. Of the water quality contaminants (including dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), total phosphorus (TP), ammoniacal-nitrogen, nitrate-nitrite-nitrogen [NNN], suspended sediment and E. coli), 83 % of water quality trend directions were either improving (n = 16) or showed no change (n = 9) during the extension period. Over the 20-year dataset, which included the post-extension period, 20 out of 30 contaminant-catchment combinations (67 %) were improving, but nine were degrading, dominated by NNN (n = 4), DRP (n = 2) and E. coli (n = 2). Abrupt decreases in contaminant concentrations, were correlated with on-farm practice changes mainly associated with transition from direct discharge of farm dairy shed effluent to waterways to land application, and the capture of effluent from off-paddock facilities (like stand off or feed pads). Best management practices reduced phosphorus (P) forms, E. coli and sediment concentrations. Increase in NNN concentrations was caused by transitioning from flood to spray irrigation and a commensurate increase in cow numbers and NNN leaching. These data indicate that extension advice and on-farm practice change have helped to improve overall water quality over time. Nevertheless, recent regulatory threshold values for some contaminant concentrations are not being met, meaning that more actions are required, over and above the BMPs implemented
What is generated through rupture?
Get PDFOur commentary explores the contested possibilities of rupture, disaster, and emergency, and reflects on growing fears around political extremism. Rupture as theorised by Mahanty et al. captures the generative potential that arises through the conditions of the Anthropocene. We emphasise the political ambiguity of these processes and their potential to spur progressive possibility as well as political change that leans towards oppression and violence. We discuss how rupture can be purposefully catalysed or co-opted as a political tool by actors with starkly different aims, underscoring the importance of understanding the types of ruptures being generated and for whom these processes of change serve
User perception and acceptance of softshell headgear amongst youth rugby players
No full textIntroduction. This study investigated the attitudes of youth rugby players towards the use of protective softshell headgear during rugby training and matches. The primary objective was to gain insights into their preferences and concerns regarding headgear. The innovative aspect of this research lies in its focus on youth rugby players and their perceptions of headgear, which is one of the crucial aspects of player safety. Methods. A survey was administered to 43 high school-level (Years 9-13) rugby players (females aged 13-17 and males aged 14-16 years). The survey aimed to assess players’ attitudes towards headgear. The participants were asked questions regarding their use of headgear during training sessions and matches, previous use of headgear, reasons for discontinuing its use, and headgear brands they have worn. Additionally, those who wore headgear were asked about their motivations for using it, while those who did not wear headgear were questioned about their reasons for not doing so. Participants' confidence in their head protection without headgear, head injuries experienced, familiarity with headgear specifications, and awareness of information about headgear benefits and risks were also examined. Results. Among the participants, the majority (37 players), did not wear headgear during training sessions, with 3 using it occasionally and 3 using it consistently. In matches, 32 did not wear headgear, 3 used it occasionally, and 8 used it consistently. Of those who previously wore headgear but stopped, reasons included discomfort, a perception that headgear was ineffective, and that headgear restricted mobility. Various brands of headgear were reported to be used, CCC (Canterbury of New Zealand), not World Rugby Approved, was the most common (12) followed by NPro (World Rugby Approved) (9). For those who wore headgear at any stage, the primary reasons (chosen from any of ten options) included parental advice (78%) and protection from head injuries (52%). The main reasons for not wearing headgear were lack of ventilation (67%), headgear was bulky/annoying (50%), general discomfort (44%), and headgear use not being compulsory (36%). Additionally, 19 participants believed that headgear offers protection against potential head injuries, 13 were unsure, and 11 believed that it did not offer protection. Conclusions. The results of this study indicate a range of attitudes among youth rugby players towards the use of headgear. Understanding their motivations and concerns is crucial for improving player safety. While some players see headgear as a valuable protective measure, others are deterred by factors such as discomfort and lack of ventilation. There is a need for greater awareness and education about headgear benefits and risks among rugby players, potential modifications to headgear design to enhance comfort and ventilation should be explored
Plant parasitic nematodes associated with Maize (Zea mays L.) in New Zealand
No full textPlant parasitic nematodes (PPNs) are a substantial threat to maize yield globally that is often underestimated. The presence and identification of PPN species in New Zealand maize production remain limited. This study aimed to identify the major PPNs, their population abundance, and distribution in New Zealand maize fields. A total of 384 soil samples were collected from 24 sites from the North (NI) and South Island (SI) of New Zealand in the maize for grain-growing regions of Canterbury (SI), Waikato (NI), and Manawatu (NI). Results showed that all samples were positive for at least one PPN genus. The major PPNs morphologically identified were Pratylenchus (91%), Helicotylenchus (38%), Meloidogyne (14%), Tylenchus (14%), Heterodera (8%), Paratylenchus (3%), and Criconemella (1%). Pratylenchus spp. was found to be extensively distributed in all three regions with populations above the economic threshold (1000 nematodes/kg of soil) in 8 of 9 sites in Canterbury (33% of samples) and 5 of 9 sites in Waikato (19%) and 3 of 6 sites Manawatu (19%). The maximum abundance of Pratylenchus spp. (15067 nematodes/kg soil) was detected in a Dorie maize field, Canterbury (SI). Sites of Rakia (2394 Pratylenchus/kg soil), Leeston (2106), and Dorie (1796) in Canterbury (SI), Ohaupo (1800), Tauhei (1000) ) in Waikato (NI) and Marton (2015) in Manawatu (NI) were identified as the “hotspots of Pratylenchus spp.”; where a site having a mean abundance of Pratylenchus/kg of soil above the reported economic threshold. The survey highlights the potential of Pratylenchus spp. to impact maize yield in major maize-growing regions in New Zealand. This study provides valuable insights into PPN communities in New Zealand maize fields and further research/s needs to be continued to develop effective PPN management strategies