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Simulating household impacts and population displacement in disasters
No full textPopulation displacement in disasters is increasing worldwide, exacerbated by sustained population
growth, continued development in hazardous areas, and climate change increasing the frequency and
severity of weather events. The consequences of household displacement range from loss of livelihoods
and wellbeing through to the degradation of communities and economies. International disaster risk
reduction (DRR) bodies and scholars have stated a critical need to better understand pre-event
displacement risk and to identify affected populations, their locations, and their needs during disasters.
Inadequate data collection during and after disasters has constrained understanding of how
displacement dynamics vary across events, contexts, and timeframes. Existing displacement models are
either highly simplified, neglecting event dynamics beyond the point of initial displacement, or narrowly
focused on single case studies, limiting their transferability. The aim of this thesis is to strengthen disaster
risk management by advancing understanding of population displacement dynamics and embedding
this knowledge within a simulation framework to evaluate displacement risk and societal impacts.
This
thesis examines Aotearoa New Zealand (A-NZ), a nation that is highly exposed to natural hazards and
has recently experienced a series of rapid-onset disasters, as the case study to achieve this aim.
The context and drivers of displacement in past disaster events in A-NZ are examined through a
literature review to assess whether global assumptions hold or if other factors require consideration in
displacement simulations. Building damage and mandatory evacuations are found to be the primary
determinants of displacement in smaller events in A-NZ, in line with international evidence. In major
events, these drivers insufficiently explain displacement dynamics, where the cumulative impacts of
societal disruption and differences between urban and rural settings are found to be strongly influential.
To address the global paucity studies on the experiences of displaced residents over time, two household
surveys are developed to gather empirical data following two flooding events. Descriptive and statistical
analyses are undertaken to examine the influence of context, impacts and demographics on
displacement outcomes. Similarities in residents’ experiences are found between events for the number
of alternative accommodation locations, the duration spent at each location, accommodation selections
over time, and total duration displaced. The findings inform the development of an empirical model for
forecasting selection of accommodation type, area of relocation, duration at each location, and
accommodation payment support requirements. The empirical model represents a novel contribution,
as the first known example capable of evaluating accommodation choices continuously over time.
This thesis then presents the agent-based Stay-or-Relocate Model (STORM), a flexible model framework
capable of representing heterogenous societal systems and the behavioural responses of residents given
changing circumstances over time. STORM builds on the global and case study evidence examined
through the review and empirical data analysis summarised above. Implementation is demonstrated
through application to two prominent scenarios. The first is a multi-phase, multi-hazard volcanic
eruption scenario of Taranaki Mounga, complemented by a series of robust impact models that together
form an ideal set of inputs within STORM. The second application demonstrates the transferability and
utility of STORM through application to the AF8 (Alpine Fault magnitude 8) scenario, requested by the
emergency management sector for a major national exercise.
The body of work presented in this thesis represents a substantial advancement towards understanding
and reducing displacement risk, offering an adaptable simulation framework and outlining processes for
context-appropriate applications worldwide. This thesis contributes to international knowledge by
revealing understudied and time-dependent dynamics of displacement, by embracing the detailed
examination of context to enable assessment of generalisability between findings internationally, and by
presenting new approaches for capturing displacement dynamics in holistic simulations of societal
impact
Emergence and de-emergence of climate change at regional scale in coupled climate models
No full textThe impacts of climate change won’t be felt everywhere equally. Considering just temperature, even if the globe warmed up uniformly, a single-degree temperature rise will be more significant for regions with less natural variability than those with more. Hence, it is important to quantify climate change relative to background conditions. The work in this thesis does just that, using the framework of emergence (change relative to background variability) to assess the significance of climate change at the regional level. My analysis is primarily forward-looking, comparing results from models running simulations of the future climate. I investigate the exposure that different regions of the world will have to unusual temperatures in the latest generation of coupled climate models across a range of scenarios. While the negative impacts of continued warming are of obvious concern, less attention has been paid to what might happen to the climate if we pass the point of net-zero carbon dioxide emissions and temperatures start coming back down. What this looks like at a regional scale has implications for setting climate policy goals and adapting to future changes.
Population-based emergence of climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model ensemble was assessed and compared to the previous generation of models. My results show climate change emerging soonest and most strongly at low latitudes and for lower-income nations, regardless of the emissions pathway taken. In terms of signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios of average annual temperatures, this ensemble exhibits earlier and stronger emergence under the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSPs) than the previous generation did under corresponding Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs). Spatial patterns of emergence also change between generations of models, and I find that these global and regional changes are caused by a combination of higher Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) in the CMIP6 ensemble, as well as changes to emissions pathways, component-wise effective radiative forcing (ERF), and region-scale climate responses between model generations.
Extending the framework of climate change emergence, I investigate the phenomenon of de-emergence, where temperatures rise beyond a given threshold and subsequently drop back below that threshold as forcing reverses. Large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR), also referred to as negative emissions, has been proposed to lower global-average temperatures and mitigate damage to the Earth system, though the regional effects of this have been under-studied to date. I analyse the results of eight Earth System Model (ESM) that participated in the Carbon Dioxide Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP). I find that decades after CO2 concentrations return to pre-industrial levels following a gradual quadrupling, the only regions that most models agree return to pre-industrial temperatures are an area across northwestern Eurasia and a small area off the coast of West Antarctica. Around half of the models project de-emergence for areas of North America and East Asia. I investigate potential causes for these patterns and find that the land areas that cool more also exhibit enhanced latent heat flux, net carbon uptake, and precipitation, implying enhanced evapotranspiration. The region off West Antarctica appears to experience a cooling influence from changes to sea ice and meltwater. Both regions experience changes to cloud radiative effects that cause net cooling.
While the above experiment is highly idealised, overshooting a global temperature target before returning back to it using negative emissions is increasingly being discussed as a real-world possibility in light of ongoing emissions inconsistent with achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. While global temperature is widely expected to be reversible under such conditions, regional climate responses are much less well understood. I analyse results from two CMIP6 overshoot scenarios run by an ensemble of Earth system models to assess changes in temperature and precipitation across the globe. I find that overshooting a temperature target by a larger amount leads to a warmer Southern Hemisphere, a cooler Northern Hemisphere, and larger decreases of precipitation in North Africa and increases in East Asia, compared to a smaller temperature overshoot. Some differences, notably increases in extreme temperatures, persist for centuries after the overshoot.
The work in this thesis contributes to our understanding of the climate by exploring climate change emergence and de-emergence under multiple experiments, using a range of climate models. My results confirm the previously identified inequity of climate change-related impacts in the decades between now and the 2050 target for net-zero emissions held by many countries. The regional disparities in de-emergence rates also raise questions about the equity and fairness of overshoot scenarios as a reversal of global temperatures will not be felt evenly across the globe. I bring novel analytical frameworks for assessing the significance of climatic changes, particularly in the under-explored scenario of a post-net zero world
Correlation between liquefaction resistance and shear wave velocity of sand-gravel mixtures : an experimental investigation.
No full textCase histories from more than 30 earthquakes worldwide have shown that liquefaction can occur in gravelly soils (both in natural deposits and manmade reclamations), resulting in large ground deformation and severe damage to civil infrastructure. However, evaluating the liquefaction potential and cyclic strain accumulation characteristics of gravelly soils remains a major challenge in geotechnical earthquake engineering. In this study, to provide new insights into this important topic, a series of stress-controlled undrained cyclic triaxial tests were performed, along with bender element shear wave velocity (V sand-gravel mixtures (SGM) with varying gravel contents (G results indicated that both G C and D r S ) measurements, on reconstituted specimens of C ) and relative densities (D r ). The experimental have significant effects on the cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) and V of SGMs, and both parameters should be considered jointly when evaluating the cyclic response, as similar macroscopic behavior can result from different combinations of density state and particle-size composition. Laboratory-based S G C-specific CRR-V S correlations were also developed and found to be consistent with existing V S-based liquefaction triggering relationships derived from gravelly soil case histories
The moral foundations of prosocial behaviour.
No full textDevelopmental scientists have sought to understand at what ages children develop moral
capabilities, such as empathy, guilt, or moral reasoning skills, and if development in these
domains motivates children to act in prosocial ways. The central questions are how inter
individual differences in moral development relate to young children’s prosocial behaviour, how
these differences are associated with different socialization practices, and how normative change
and atypical moral development affect changes in prosocial behaviour
Critical review of antimicrobials, antimicrobial resistance, and their associated genes in decentralized wastewater treatment systems.
No full textThe pervasive use of antimicrobials across human health care, veterinary, and agricultural sectors has led to their widespread environmental occurrence. Centralized and decentralized wastewater treatment systems often fail to completely remove these antimicrobials, driving the emergence and propagation of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), resistant microbes, and antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs). Decentralized wastewater treatment systems (DWWTSs), which serve over 30 % of the global population, are emerging as overlooked reservoirs of AMR and ARGs. This review provides a critical overview of the occurrence and fate of antimicrobials, AMR, and ARGs within DWWTSs and their role in spreading AMR and ARGs. We highlight the persistence of antimicrobials in DWWTSs and the mechanisms facilitating the proliferation and dissemination of AMR and ARGs. Particular attention is given to septic tank conditions, such as prolonged sludge retention times, intermittent loading, anaerobic-dominated conditions, and oxidative and nitrosative stress, which may promote the selection and proliferation of resistant microbial populations. We further examine how trace antimicrobials and co-selective agents interact to exacerbate AMR. This review reveals crucial research gaps, including the overlooked role of reactive oxygen species in AMR proliferation and the need for laboratory studies isolating the impact of individual factors. Current studies often target specific bacterial taxa, leading to overgeneralizations about the broader microbial community involved in AMR dynamics. This review underscores the overlooked role of DWWTSs in AMR spread and calls for improved design, operation, and monitoring strategies to transform them from passive conduits into active barriers against AMR
Does Machine-Assisted Production Alter Grammatical Structures?
No full textThis paper asks whether machine-assisted production during informal writing changes the grammatical structures
used by individuals. The larger question behind this project is whether interactions with language technology, in
this case GPT-4o, could have an impact on future language change by privileging some structural variants over
others
The Tékhnē of surgical body transformations and Fedorov’s futurity in Aleksandr Beliaev’s science fiction, 1920s.
No full textThe first two decades of the twentieth century saw an unprecedented surge in scientific and technological experiments directed at the physical transformation of the human body. In Bolshevik Russia of the 1920s, science fiction and scientific and technological experiments created a nexus. The science fiction of Aleksandr Beliaev (1884–1942) turned experiments into adventure plots. Beliaev’s views on scientific experiments were informed not only by Bolshevik science but also by late-nineteenth-century pre-Revolutionary scientific theories. Nikolai Fedorov’s visionary futurity known as “Philosophy of the Common Task” bridged pre-Revolutionary utopian aspirations with the speculative thought of the 1920s across science, literature and art. My aim is to identify and analyse both intersections and differences in Beliaev’s and Fedorov’s visions of futurity in relation to body transformations in two of Beliaev’s most important yet understudied novels of the 1920s, The Amphibian Man and Professor Dowell’s Head. My approach is both synchronic and diachronic. I address features of transhumanist and posthumanist thought in Beliaev’s narratives that involve experiments in assembling hybridised human–animal, interhuman and human–machine organisms. I position Beliaev’s writing within the speculative discourse that was informed by Fedorovian aspirational futurity as well as by scientific and medical experiments involving reanimation and restoration of humans and animals
Money, credit, and crises : the New Zealand historical experience.
No full textThis thesis applies the framework of Schularick and Taylor (2012) to examine the long-run evolution of money, credit, and financial crises in New Zealand from the late nineteenth century to the present. Using a newly constructed historical dataset, it first documents long-run trends in money and credit, examining how these aggregates have evolved relative to the size of the economy and to each other over time. The analysis then examines how the relationship between money, credit, and financial crises has changed over time, distinguishing between two eras of finance capitalism, pre- and post-World War II.
The results show that New Zealand’s financial system evolved in ways broadly consistent with international evidence, but with important differences. In the first era, money and credit remained stable relative to gross domestic product (GDP) and closely linked, while in the second era, both rose rapidly and credit increasingly decoupled from money following financial liberalisation. Post-crisis dynamics also differ across eras: output losses were limited before WWII but substantially larger in the post-WWII era, despite more activist monetary policy. Credit consistently outperforms money as a crisis predictor, but its predictive advantage does not strengthen across eras and largely disappears in real-time forecasting after 1982
Tactility in Perception of Biobased Composites
Full text linkBiobased composites - sustainable alternatives to fossil-based materials, could gain better acceptance if their
perceptual handicaps could be overcome. This paper considers the role of tactility in contrast with visual
stimuli, as well as the perceptual qualities influenced by tactility. The analysis revealed a significant impact
of tactility in forming attributes such as naturality, roughness and strength. Attributes like beauty and
complexity remain less affected by touch, and more visual-dominant. These findings may help designers in
creating desirable products with sustainable materials
Young children’s experiences of caregiver technoference in the home and the associated emotional impacts.
Full text linkA substantial body of literature has established the harmful effects of technoference on
caregiver-child relationships, where technology disrupts interactions and communication.
Technoference research has tended to focus on child and caregiver outcomes separately,
while heavily relying on caregiver- or adolescent-report. Notably, there are no existing child report
measures and participatory approaches with children are infrequent or inferior across
the literature. As such, the present study aimed to develop a suite of novel, animated child report
measures for children aged 5 to 8, to assess the prevalence, frequency, and associated
emotional impacts of caregiver technoference in the home. The study comprised two phases.
Phase one employed participatory approaches with 20 children, aged 6 to 9 (57.89% boys; M
age = 7.00 years; SD = 1.25) and expert input during the application of a Delphi method to
develop content for the animations in the measures. The content was refined by a focus group
of research team members and the corresponding animations then underwent refinement with
16 children, aged 6 to 9 (62.50% boys; M age = 7.38 years; SD = 1.02). Five measures
assessed caregiver technoference in the home and the associated emotional impacts. A sixth
measure served as a non-technoference comparative assessment. In phase two, the suite was
pilot-tested with 45 children, aged 5 to 9 (48.89% boys; M age = 6.49 years; SD = 0.94). The
animated measures, both innovative and engaging, demonstrated high understandability for
use with young children. Furthermore, the results of the pilot testing showed that the
technoference measures detected varying degrees of caregiver technoference in the home for
91.11% of all children in the sample. Cumulatively, 22.22% of children reported caregiver
technoference in the home on four or more technoference measures, with children most
commonly reporting feeling sad, followed by neutral. The study was limited by small sample
sizes and practical time constraints. Future research should seek to validate the measures with
larger, more representative samples of children