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The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: evidence for Germany
Full text linkIn this paper we examine the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHT) using a newly constructed monthly database of zero coupon bond yields from the German Government bond market. We use data at the short end of the maturity spectrum (maturities less than two years) and employ two approaches to predict future movements in shorter-term interest rates: one based on the yield spread, the other based on the forward-spot rate spread. We find that for the period considered, 1985:2-1994:12, both spreads contain substantial information for predicting future interest rate movements. Moreover, the results are, in general, consistent with the implications of the EHT, as far as the value of the coefficient of the spread is concerned. This means that in Germany the spread can be used as an important indicator for the conduct of monetary policy
European regional growth: do sectors matter?
Full text linkThe recent theoretical and empirical works on economic growth based on Solow’s model have generally neglected the role played by the sectoral mix and structural change on aggregate growth. However, as many development economists have remarked, sectors are characterized by enormous differences in terms of technological change, intersectoral linkages and the degree of scale economies. In this paper we show that indeed sectors matter in determining aggregate growth across European regions. More specifically, we show that large part of convergence is induced by a structural change process of shifting employment from low to high productive sectors that is relatively faster in the initially less productive southern European regions
Is dualism still a source of convergence in Europe?
Full text linkThis paper aims at assessing whether dualistic mechanisms represent a significant component of the aggregate labour productivity convergence observed across the European regions in the 1980s. The potential of an explanation of convergence based in part, at least on the existence of dualism in some of the initially poorer regions has been largely ignored by the literature. We use a dualistic model based on Dixit (1970) and on Mas-Colell and Razin (1973) to obtain hypotheses to be tested in cross-region growth regressions. In particular, we wish to test whether a high initial allocation of labour in agriculture in fact generates in each sector as well as at the aggregate level the specific impact on productivity growth (and therefore on convergence) implied by the theory of the dual economy. We use the data-base Regio-Eu set up by CRENoS, with aggregate and sectoral data for 109 territorial units from 1980 to 1990. Our cross-section results are consistent with the major predictions of the dualistic model. While part of the influence exerted by dualistic mechanisms is not easily distinguishable from the one exerted by other mechanisms such as technology diffusion, still the former appears to be a significant component of the whole process of convergence. Ignoring such component could lead to misleading interpretations of the relative roles played by each of the forces behind the process, and to inexact assessments of what actions should be taken, if any, by the European regional policy to help the process become more pervasive
Economia del turismo: note sulla crescita, qualità ambientale e sostenibilità
Full text linkWe analyse some key problems facing a small country for whom specialisation in nature-based tourism is an available option, and who aims at maximising non-resident tourists’ total expenditure. We discuss and develop some of the main results of the thin economic literature on the topic. As for growth prospects associated with specialisation in tourism, we find that few plausible changes in assumptions generate more favourable results than those previously known in the literature. Then we turn to the impact of tourism development on the quality of the resource. We show that, since in the tourism case the exhaustible components of the latter are characterised by a quality-quantity trade-off, a specific economic incentive exists such that the optimal rate of exploitation is more conservative than in the case of traditional natural resources. Finally, we briefly discuss problems of sustainability as well as some specific market failures in the presence of non homotheticity and of strong exogenous seasonality in demand patterns. We conclude that even though potentially the economic consequences of specialisation in tourism are promising ones, market solutions implying unsustainable economic exploitation of the natural resource are likely
Commercio internazionale e crescita economica nei casi della Corea del Sud e delle isole Filippine: un'analisi econometrica di causalità
Full text linkEmpirical research on the issue of international trade and economic growth is unable to provide definite results. One of the main reasons is that there are many and almost quite different empirical approaches used to verify if export promotion fosters economic growth. The aim of this paper is to carry out a causality test by focusing on the mechanisms and conditions through which export promotion contributes to growth. Among the mechanisms a key role is given to structural change. While in the Philippines' case a causal relationship does not exist, empirical evidence from South Korea reveals that export promotion causes growt
Modelli di determinazione del tasso di cambio: un'analisi di cointegrazione
Full text linkThe aim of this paper is to examine the empirical relation between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals for five major industrialised countries in the floating exchange rates period after 1973. Two theoretical models of exchange rate determination are considered: a monetary model in Frankel's real interest differential version (1979), and a synthesis of monetary and portfolio balance approaches proposed by Ashok Parikh (1992). The empirical analysis on these models has been run through the application of cointegration techniques, both in a univariate framework à la Engle and Granger and through the multivariate Johansen's procedure. After the cointegration analysis, the long run estimates have been put in a structural ECM in order to model simultaneously long and short run dynamics. The results for the monetary model in the long run are very interesting for France, Japan and Spain, while for Germany and UK the model cannot capture the actual pattern of the exchange rate; in the short run the difficulty in modelling exchange rate changes has been confirmed. The synthesis model between the two approaches estimated for Germany, Japan and UK appears to be completely unsatisfactory
Domanda, produttività e dinamica occupazionale: un'analisi per moltiplicatori
Full text linkThe paper proposes a quantitative assessment of the impact of demand-side factors, i.e. growth, composition and distribution of income, in the determination of changes in the aggregate balance of employment. The level of employment “justified” in an economic system is here derived from the application of a simple model which we have called, following the seminal contribution of R. Kahn in 1931, the “Employment Multiplier”. Starting from an accounting identity between values of aggregate supply and demand, the level of “justified” employment is derived, given the labour coefficients and deflated values of the final demand, in which “autonomous” components are distinguished from an “induced” component, this latter depending on total labour income. The variations, over the decades and the cycles, of aggregate employment for Italy, starting from 1960, are then analysed and decomposed into effects of the “contributions” of three components: growth of productivity, of “autonomous” demand and of the “multiplier”, a term which summarizes the impact of trends of employment, real wages and consumption propensity on induced demand