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SEBARAN DAERAH RENTAN PENYAKIT DBD MENURUT KEADAAN IKLIM MAUPUN NON IKLIM(DISTRIBUTION OF VULNERABLE REGION OF DENGUE FEVER DISEASE BASED ON CLIMATE AND NON-CLIMATE CONDITION)
Get PDFThis research was aimed to investigate distribution of vulnerable region of dengue fever disease based on climate condition and population density in Indonesia. Climate condition, population density and vulnerability of district level were defined in the form of ordinal variable. The Koppen classification was used to proxy the climate condition. The population density was used to categorize the district level into small, medium and big cities. Regional vulnerability level was developed by using the values of IR and the 3-year consecutive incidence. The result of analysis using the frequency of incidence clarified that the population density and climate pattern influences the vulnerable level of the district. The big cities whose climate type are of Am (annual rainfall more than 1000 mm) and dry season is not extreme are the riskiest vulnerable region. On the contrary, the small cities whose dry season is not clear have high probability to be the safest region
VARIASI SPASIAL DAN TEMPORAL HUJAN KONVEKTIF DI PULAU JAWA BERDASARKAN CITRA SATELIT(SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIATION OF CONVECTIVE RAIN IN JAVA ISLAND BASED ON CITRA IMAGES)
Get PDFConvective rain is one of precipitation types that usually occur in Indonesia, result by convective process. This convective rain brings heavy rainfall in short period and could reach a higher intensity than common monsoon rain. Convective process may have a variation with time and location. This research have determined spatial and temporal variation of convective rain in Java island by using the black body temperature (TBB) gradient method based on the GMS-6 (MTSAT-1R) images. As a result, the seasonal convective rain generally occurred in similar period i.e. in the morning from 07.00 to 11.00 LT (local time) and in the evening from 18.00 LT until 05.00 LT. The maximum event occurred from 18.00 LT until mid night. There were different locations between the seasonal convective event. In the seasonal convective rain, there were two spatial patterns. In wet season (DJF) and transitional season from wet to dry (MAM) convective rain spread from east to west Java. While in dry season (JJA) and transitional season from dry to wet (SON), convective rain mostly occurred only in west Java
PREDICTION OF DAILY RAINFALL CHARACTERISTICS FROM MONTHLY CLIMATE INDICES(PREDIKSI KARAKTERISTIK CURAH HUJAN HARIAN DARI PARAMETER IKLIM BULANAN)
Get PDFInformation on rainfall characteristics such as dry-spell, wet-spell, maximum rainfall and some others are required for agricultural planning. The occurrence of long dry-spell in growing season, in particular during a growing stage sensitive to drought, should be avoided. This information will assist farmer to arrange their planting time and cropping pattern. If information on daily rainfall characteristics could be predicted before planting season is started, better planting arrangement could be developed. Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly, Darwin and Jakarta air pressure difference, Tahiti and Darwin air pressure difference, are climate indices that have been found to be related to Indonesian rainfall variation. Many GCM models have been developed for the prediction of these indices and the predicted indices can be accessed easily from many web-sites. Prediction of the indices for one-year period ahead is given in monthly basis. This study described the development of a weather generator model that used monthly rainfall as inputs for generating daily rainfall data. Relationship between monthly rainfall anomaly and the climate indices is developed. Thus, the likely monthly rainfall anomaly for coming season can be estimated from the indices. This predicted rainfall anomaly is then used to tune the weather generator model for the creation of statistically-based daily weather data for specific sites. The characteristics of daily rainfall such as dry spell, wet spell are generated using Excel spreadsheet that has been furnished with Monte Carlo simulation capability. Results of analysis showed that statistical characteristics of generated rainfall data are similar to the characteristic of observed data. Therefore, the use of predicted monthly rainfall data for coming season as input for the weather data generator model is expected to yield likely daily rainfall data for the coming season
ANTISIPASI DAN MEKANISME PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN PETANI DALAM PENGENDALIAN DAMPAK ANOMALI IKLIM(FARMERS’ ANTICIPATION AND DECISION MAKING MECHANISM IN MANAGING IMPACT OF CLIMATE ANOMALY)
Get PDFFarmer’s collective participation in climate anomaly anticipating and managing its impacts are more significant. The study purposed to identify the climate anomaly impact and its anticipation in farmer’s level. The study is conducted in eight districts, i.e., Temanggung, Magelang, Kebumen, Brebes, Kendal, Grobogan, Pati, and Sragen, on July – October 2005. The analysis based on interview of 84 respondents that consist of farmers and officers of local agricultural services. According to the farmers, El Nino affected their farming activities like longer dry season, decreased yield, delay of onset planting season, increased costs for irrigation, seed, pesticides, and cost of land preparation. In farmers’ level, climate anomaly impacts was managed by planting schedules improvement, changing varieties or commodities, and looking for alternative sources of waters. Farmers determine the actions by considering collective decision and the guidance of agriculture extension workers. Time tolerance of farmers tin tailoring climate anomaly is about a month. However, most of farmers manage the farming system based on normal condition. As the climate anomaly is an external factor that affect farming system, local authority should support the farmer’s collective actions through dissemination of anticipation strategies in managing the impacts climate anomaly, and support facilities to implement the strategies
KETERKAITAN CUACA DI INDONESIA DENGAN FENOMENA BINTIK MATAHARI (SUNSPOT)(RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WEATHER IN INDONESIA AND SUNSPOT PHENOMENON)
Get PDFThe Sun activity was correlation with weather activities in global scale. Shortwave emission from flare sun space could be impact warmer in earth atmosphere only a short time and indirect caused atmospheric circulation pattern through polar direction from equator with more heater than the other palaces. Based on research the sun activity can caused indirect on the earth. On the other hand, atmosphere is in the first time accept effect modify from sun space. The effect is not the same at every layers of atmosphere. In the top atmosphere (Ionosphere) was layer with more free electron at the 225 km level occurred electron density diurnal and seasonal variation depend on sun position, and sun spot cycle. Sun spot impact on Indonesian weather with non-linier cubic equation. Solar radiation higher if increase amount of sun spot in the sun space. On the other hand, temperature and relative humidity influenced by outgoing radiation from earth, latitude and local topography specific than sunspot. It is interesting to note that this study different with literature. This study found average temperature in the tropic area the most highest than others area is contrary with literature
ANALISA POTENSI CURAH HUJAN BERDASARKAN DATA DISTRIBUSI AWAN DAN DATA TEMPERATURE BLACKBODY DI KOTOTABANG SUMATERA BARAT( ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL POTENCY BASED ON CLOUD DISTRIBUTION AND TEMPERATURE BLACKBODY DATA IN KOTOTABANG)
Get PDFPrecipitation in West Sumatera was influenced by monsoon circulation and its position in equator, and also the topography of Bukit Barisan. This study is designed to learn more about characteristics of precipitation in West Sumatera (case study in Kototabang) using cloud distribution data from XDR and Temperature Black Body (TBB). The result shows the precipitation increase on the end of February, and XDR data represents the clouds are convective, and also TBB data increasing at the same time. This is the early of rainy season in West Sumatera. On the other season, in the middle of July, the intensity of precipitation decreased, and XDR data shows much clouds are formed, but the rainfall wasvery rare until August. The TBB data also represents decreasing of top clouds temperature, so dry season in West Sumatera begin in the middle of July.--------------------------------------------------------------------Curah hujan Sumatera Barat selain dipengaruhi oleh sirkulasi monsoon, juga dipengaruhi oleh posisinya yang dilalui garis khatulistiwa serta kondisi topografi lokal yang berpegunungan. Penelitian ini mengkaji tentang karakteristik curah hujan wilayah Sumatera Barat khususnya Kototabang berdasar distribusi awan dan Temperature Black Body (TBB). Data curah hujan yang dianalisa adalah data curah hujan bulan Januari dan Februari 2004 (menjelang musim hujan), serta bulan Juli dan Agustus 2004 (musim kemarau). Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa intensitas curah hujan mulai meningkat pada akhir bulan Februari, dan didukung oleh data kondisi awan dari XDR yang menunjukkan pada waktu tersebut awan yang tumbuh adalah awan-awan konvektif yang berpotensi menjadi hujan, serta grafik suhu puncak awan (TBB) yang meningkat tajam. Pada musim kemarau, curah hujan yang rendah terjadi mulai pertengahan Juli. Pada periode 3 Agustus sampai 12 Agustus tidak terjadi hujan. Jumlah awan yang terbentuk pada saat musim kemarau lebih banyak dibandingkan musim hujan tetapi tidak potensial untuk terjadi hujan lebat. Data TBB pada periode ini menurun drastis yang menunjukkan suhu puncak awan yang rendah, tidak berpotensi untuk terjadi hujan
THE DAILY RAINFALL STATISTICAL SHIFT DURING THE HALF CENTURY OVER THE BRANTAS CATCHMENT, EAST JAVA(STATISTIK PERUBAHAN CURAH HUJAN HARIAN SELAMA SETENGAH ABAD DI DAERAH TANGKAPAN BRANTAS, JAWA TIMUR)
Get PDFA study of long term shift of the daily rainfall over the Brantas catchment East Java was done. Such a study is relatively new for the country due to lack of good quality data and sparsely distributed data all over the region. With a good quality long-term daily rainfall data over the Brantas catchment, we could detect a statistical shift of amount of rainy days, shift between periods and frequency trend changes from weekly, monthly, three-monthly and annually. The study utilized several methods including the probability density function distribution shift, Mann Kendall non parametric trend test and the wavelet analyses. The shift of low amount rainfall occurs from the dry to the wet season. We found distinct influences of orography and ENSO years in our trend tests. Additionally, the result of the Mann Kendall test show that the trend of rainy days increase during the wet season and the second transition period, while decrease during the dry season and first transitional period. Meanwhile the El Nino and La Nina have significant influence toward the dry season and the second transitional period
SKENARIO MASA TANAM KAPAS UNTUK MENEKAN RISIKO KEKERINGAN : STUDI KASUS KABUPATEN JENEPONTO PROVINSI SULAWESI SELATAN(COTTON PLANTING PERIOD SCENARIO FOR MINIMIZING DROUGHT RISK : CASE STUDY JENEPONTO DISTRICT, SOUTH SULAWESI PROVINCE …
Get PDFWater stress is a very important limiting factor for cotton cultivation in Jeneponto District, South Sulawesi Provine. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize water resources. One alternative is to obtain potency of water resources using soil-climate-crop simulation model to calculate ETR/ETM ratio (water satisfaction index). ETR/ETM ratio describing efficiency of water used by the plant. Based on the ratio, scenario of proper planting period can be predicted to minimize drought risk. Based on this idea, an experiment was conducted to mapping of planting periods and water used to enhance the expansion of cotton plantation. The results of research show that potential planting period for Bangkala and West Bangkala districts start from the 3rd dekad of September until the 1st dekad of January, while the best period is on the 1st dekad of November. Potential of planting period for Bontoramba and Turatea districts starts from the 3rd dekad of September until the 1st dekad of May, while the best period is on the 3rd dekad of November. In addition, the appropriate planting period for Batang, Kelara, and Rumbia districts start from the 3rd dekad of September until the 3rd dekad of April, while the best period is on the 1st dekad of December. Requirement for supplementary irrigation for 140 days after planting is about 180-304 mm. However, common necessity of cotton supplementary irrigation for 1-35 day is about 25 – 51 mm, while that is during flowering and fruiting (35 -60 day after planting), ripening (60-105 day after planting), and ripening (105-140 day after planting), are about 40-62, 115-135, 0-68 mm, respectively. It is concluded, deficit and surplus of water for less than 60 dap is not significantly influence plant production, but that is for 60 – 105 day after planting significantly reduces yield of the plant
ANALISIS KORELASI CURAH HUJAN DAN SUHU PERMUKAAN LAUT WILAYAH INDONESIA, SERTA IMPLIKASINYA UNTUK PRAKIRAAN CURAH HUJAN (STUDI KASUS KABUPATEN CILACAP) (CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL AND INDONESIA SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND ITS ...
Get PDFSignificant decrease in rainfall caused extreme climate has significant impact on agriculture sector, especialy food crops production. It is one of reason and push developing of rainfall prediction models as anticipate from extreme climate events. Rainfall prediction models develop base on time series data, and then it has been included anomaly aspect, like rainfall prediction model with Kalman filtering method. One of global parameter that has been used as climate anomaly indicator is sea surface temperature. Some of research indicate, there are relationship between sea surface temperature and rainfall. Relationship between Indonesian rainfall and global sea surface temperature has been known, but its relationship with Indonesian’s sea surface temperature not know yet, especialy for rainfall in smaller area like district. So, therefore the research about relationship between rainfall in distric area and Indonesian’s sea surface temperature and it application for rainfall prediction is needed. Based on Indonesian’s sea surface temperature time series data Januari 1982 until Mei 2006 show there are zona of Indonesian’s sea surface temperature (with temperature more than 27,6 0C) dominan in Januari-Mei and moved with specific pattern. Highest value of spasial correlation beetwen Cilacap’s rainfall and Indonesian’s sea surface temperature is 0,30 until 0,50 with different zona of Indonesian’s sea surface temperature. Highest positive correlation happened in March and July. Negative correlation is -0,30 until -0,70 with highest negative correlation in May and June. Model validation resulted correlation coeffcient 85,73%, fits model 20,74%, r2 73,49%, RMSE 20,5% and standart deviation 37,96. Rainfall prediction Januari-Desember 2007 period indicated rainfall pattern is near same with average rainfall pattern, rainfall less than 100/month. The result of this research indicate Indonesian’s sea surface temperature can be used as indicator rainfall condition in distric area, that means rainfall in district area can be predicted based on Indonesian’s sea surface temperature in zona with highest correlation in every month.------------------------------------------------------------------Penurunan curah hujan yang cukup signifikan akibat iklim ekstrim telah membawa dampak yang cukup signifikan pula pada sektor pertanian, terutama produksi tanaman pangan. Hal ini menjadi salah satu alasan yang mendorong semakin berkembangnya model-model prakiraan hujan sebagai upaya antipasi terhadap kejadian iklim ekstrim. Model prakiraan hujan yang pada awalnya hanya berbasis pada data time series, kini telah berkembang dengan memperhitungkan aspek anomali iklim, seperti model prakiraan hujan dengan metode filter Kalman. Salah satu indikator global yang dapat digunakan sebagai indikator anomali iklim adalah suhu permukaan laut. Dari berbagai hasil penelitian diketahui bahwa suhu permukaan laut ini memiliki keterkaitan dengan kejadian curah hujan. Hubungan curah hujan Indonesia dengan suhu permukaan laut global sudah banyak diketahui, tetapi keterkaitannya dengan suhu permukaan laut wilayah Indonesia belum banyak mendapat perhatian, terutama untuk curah hujan pada cakupan yang lebih sempit seperti kabupaten. Oleh karena itu perlu dilakukan penelitian yang mengkaji hubungan kedua parameter tersebut serta mengaplikasikannya untuk prakiraan curah hujan pada wilayah Kabupaten. Hasil penelitian berdasarkan data suhu permukaan laut wilayah Indonesia rata-rata Januari 1982 hingga Mei 2006 menunjukkan zona dengan suhu lebih dari 27,6 0C yang dominan pada bulan Januari-Mei dan bergerak dengan pola yang cukup jelas. Korelasi spasial antara curah hujan kabupaten Cilacap dengan SPL wilayah Indonesia rata-rata bulan Januari-Desember menunjukkan korelasi positip tertinggi antara 0,30 hingga 0,50 dengan zona SPL yang beragam. Korelasi tertinggi terjadi pada bulan Maret dan Juli. Sedangkan korelasi negatip berkisar antara -0,30 hingga -0,70 dengan korelasi negatip tertinggi pada bulan Mei dan Juni. Validasi model prakiraan hujan menghasilkan nilai koefisien korelasi 85,73%, fits model 20,74%, r2 sebesar 73,49%, RMSE 20,5% dan standar deviasi 37,96. Hasil prakiraan hujan bulanan periode Januari-Desember 2007 mengindikasikan pola curah hujan yang tidak jauh berbeda dengan rata-rata selama 19 tahun (1988-2006) dengan jeluk hujan kurang dari 100 mm/bulan. Hasil penelitian mengindikasikan bahwa SPL wilayah Indonesia dapat digunakan sebagai indikator untuk menunjukkan kondisi curah hujan di suatu wilayah (kabupaten), artinya curah hujan dapat diprediksi berdasarkan perubahan SPL pada zona-zona dengan korelasi yang tertinggi pada setiap bulannya
KARAKTERISTIK BADAI TROPIS DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP ANOMALI HUJAN DI INDONESIA(TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTIC AND ITS IMPACT ON RAINFALL ANOMALY IN INDONESIA)
Get PDFTropical cyclone never reached Indonesia area but its impact able to cause disaster to this country. Some research indicated effect of tropical cyclone due to high intensity the rain in short duration in some location but drought in another. Tropical cyclone often followed by small scale tornado callled ’puting beliung’ that cause local or regional damage. This research purpose to analyze physical characteristics of tropical cyclone at period January-March 2004 in south Hindia Sea. The Fay is a strong tropical cyclone has increase rainfall until 32 ms-1 and rainfaal on 47% Java station rainfall. On the other hand, The Ken is a weak tropical cyclone only cause higher wind speed and rainfall are 8 ms-1 and 18% Java station rainfall, respectively.------------------------------------------------------------------------Meskipun siklon tropis tidak pernah terjadi di Indonesia namun dampaknya sering berpengaruh terhadap Indonesia. Hasil berbagai penelitian menunjukkan bahwa siklon tropis menyebabkan hujan intensitas yang tinggi dalam waktu singkat pada suatu wilayah, dan juga menyebabkan kekeringan di daerah lain. Siklon tropis sering diikuti terjadinya puting beliung dengan daya rusak bersifat lokal hingga regional. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis karakteristik fisik siklon tropis di Samudera Hindia bagian selatan pada periode puncak terjadinya siklon yakni, Januari-Maret 2004. Analisis dilakukan terhadap dua siklon yang terjadi pada periode pengamatan yaitu siklon Fay (siklon kuat) dan siklon Ken (siklon lemah). Dampak siklon Fay terhadap peningkatan kecepatan angin menjadi 32 ms-1 dan peningkatan hujan yang signifikan padak 47% stasiun hujan di Jawa. Sedangkan siklon Ken hanya menyebabkan kecepatan angin meningkat sebesar 8 ms-1 dan peningkatan hujan pada 8% stasiun hujan di pulau Jawa