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United Nations Environment Assembly attendees underestimate public willingness to contribute to climate action
Get PDFResearchers are increasingly examining policy officials’ perceptions of public opinion on climate change. However, limited research has examined the perceptions of individuals who participate in international-level environmental policy meetings. Here we show that 2024 United Nations Environment Assembly attendees (N = 191) underestimate global public willingness to contribute 1% of their personal income to climate action by nearly half on average (37% versus 69% in actuality). This finding suggests that those who are directly and indirectly involved in setting global environmental policies may have a stronger public mandate for ambitious climate action than they realize. We discuss the implications of this finding and highlight the need for further research on international policy actors’ perceptions of public opinion; the factors that shape these perceptions; and how these perceptions may influence policy outcomes
Coupled, decoupled, and abrupt responses of vegetation to climate across timescales
Get PDFClimate and ecosystem dynamics vary across timescales, but research into climate-driven vegetation dynamics usually focuses on singular timescales. We developed a spectral analysis–based approach that provides detailed estimates of the timescales at which vegetation tracks climate change, from 101 to 105 years. We report dynamic similarity of vegetation and climate even at centennial frequencies (149−1 to 18,012−1 year−1, that is, one cycle per 149 to 18,012 years). A breakpoint in vegetation turnover (797−1 year−1) matches a breakpoint between stochastic and autocorrelated climate processes, suggesting that ecological dynamics are governed by climate across these frequencies. Heightened vegetation turnover at millennial frequencies (4650−1 year−1) highlights the risk of abrupt responses to climate change, whereas vegetation-climate decoupling at frequencies >149−1 year−1 may indicate long-lasting consequences of anthropogenic climate change for ecosystem function and biodiversity
Monetary policy and production networks: an empirical investigation
Get PDFThe ability of input-output linkages across economic sectors to amplify the effects of monetary policy shocks has received a large amount of attention in theoretical literature. In contrast, empirical evidence on such role of production networks remains almost non-existent. This paper is the first study in the literature to econometrically assess the contribution of production networks to the effect of monetary policy shocks on real macroeconomic variables. In particular, we estimate that 20 to 45 per cent of the effect of monetary policy shocks on US consumption comes from the amplification through input-output linkages. The effect of production networks is also observed to come with a delay of around 18 months. Our results survive a number of robustness checks, including the level of sectoral aggregation and the way in which monetary policy shocks are identified
Two‐Stage Bipolaron Formation in Molecularly Doped Conjugated Polymers
Get PDFThe formation and dynamics of bipolarons are crucial in determining the electrical properties of molecularly doped conjugated polymers. Traditionally, bipolarons are known to form at very high doping levels through the combination of two adjacent polarons, a process that is generally accompanied by structural disorder and impaired carrier transport. Here, it is demonstrated that bipolaron formation can occur at both the early stage with low doping levels and the late stage with high doping levels in 2,3,5,6‐tetrafluoro‐7,7,8,8‐tetracyanoquinodimethane (F4TCNQ) dip‐doped conjugated polymer films with glycol sidechains. Bipolaron formation at the early stage is discovered to be mainly associated with double doping, which is uncommon in conventional doped polymer systems. In contrast, bipolaron formation at the late stage is dominated by combining two polarons. Furthermore, these bipolarons are observed to behave differently: early‐stage bipolarons generated through double doping enhance both the molecular ordering and carrier transport, whereas late‐stage bipolarons resulting from polaron combination occur alongside detrimental effects in structural and transport properties. These findings provide new insights into the mechanisms of bipolaron formation across different doping levels and underscore the potential for optimizing doping strategies. A deeper understanding of bipolarons can guide the design of next‐generation molecularly doped conjugated polymers with improved performance
Validation of the Coffee Knowledge Test for Assessing Expertise in Coffee
Get PDFPerception and appreciation of food and beverages are shaped by an individual's knowledge and expertise. While wine expertise has been widely studied, less is known about how coffee expertise influences sensory perception. This study aimed to validate the Coffee Knowledge Test developed by Croijmans and Majid (2016) as a tool for assessing coffee expertise. We adapted the test and examined its reliability using data from 267 participants, comparing novice consumers and coffee professionals. Internal consistency was evaluated using item variability, correlation analysis, and Cronbach's α, while external validity was assessed by comparing scores between the two groups. The test showed sufficient item variability, appropriate correlations, and strong internal consistency. Importantly, coffee professionals scored significantly higher than novices. These results support the Coffee Knowledge Test as a valid and reliable instrument for measuring coffee‐related knowledge and expertise
Credit market segmentation and macroprudential regulation
Get PDFThis paper analyses the implications of credit market segmentation in the form of a formal and informal sector, for the effectiveness of bank-specific macroprudential regulation. It features a simple DSGE model involving households, formal financial intermediaries and firms. The novelty of the model lies in the quantitative rationing of credit by formal intermediaries, wherein a fraction of firms in the economy fail to get any loan from the formal sector, and have to directly approach the households for their borrowing. To understand the dynamics of this framework, I study the effects of negative shocks to the net worth of formal intermediaries, on certain macroeconomic and financial variables. I then analyse the effects of increasing the Capital Requirement Ratio in the presence of these shocks, on the volatility of aggregate credit and output, which are used as indicators of stability. In order to demonstrate the possible differences arising out of credit market segmentation, I compare the results obtained with the counterfactual case of an economy with no such segmentation. There are two interesting observations made in the analysis. Firstly, in the presence of segmentation, the response of relevant variables to a negative financial shock is more persistent. Secondly, increase in CRR as a stabilization tool is less effective in the case of segmented credit markets, and might even lead to an increase in credit and output volatility if executed beyond a reasonable level
Life-course health impact of childhood physical activity interventions
Get PDFNon-communicable diseases comprise an increasing burden on national health provision and budget, and low physical activity levels constitute a risk factor for non-communicable diseases. Analysis of the 2012 and 2015 Health Survey for England revealed few systematic differences in childhood physical activity levels, except that boys become increasingly more active than girls with age due to imbalances in formal sport participation. However, meta-analysis of 14 controlled studies revealed minimal effects of intervention in childhood, showing a mean difference of only 1.47 (95% CI’s: -1.88, 4.82) minutes a day of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity at six months post-intervention.
A proportional multi-state life table was constructed to quantify effects of intervention on childhood physical activity levels and subsequent health outcomes within the life course of a simulated closed cohort. All scenarios produced negligible effects on life expectancy. A scenario based on The Daily Mile produced a reduction of 13748 (95% CI’s: 20188, 7601) years of life in disability per 100,000 population, while a Mind, Exercise, Nutrition, Do it! scenario showed a reduction of 23494 (95% CI’s: 32234, 15405) years, largely due to reductions in type 2 diabetes prevalence.
Overall, contemporary interventions in childhood show negligible sustained effects on physical activity levels, with minimal subsequent impact on adult disease outcomes, and caution is recommended in claims and expectations to the contrary. Observed health benefits were largely accrued by targeting the least active within the population, and future research should focus on the relative effectiveness of ‘treatment’ versus ‘population’ approaches to intervention
Emergent moral non-naturalism
Get PDFThis paper introduces emergent moral non-naturalism, which holds that moral properties depend on descriptive properties and normative bridge principles for their instantiation, where these principles specify instantiation conditions of moral properties in terms of descriptive properties. Continuous with the non-naturalist tradition in metaethics, this view takes moral properties to be noncausal properties; in accordance with the emergentist tradition in metaphysics, it takes them to confer powers on their bearers. Reconciling these two claims of noncausality and power conferral, emergent moral non-naturalism construes moral properties in terms of their noncausal powers
Jordan-Holder theorem for profinite groups and applications
Get PDFWe generalize the notions of composition series and composition factors for profinite groups, and prove a profinite version of the Jordan-Holder Theorem. We apply this to prove a Galois Theorem for infinite prosolvable extensions. In addition, we investigate the connection between the abstract and topological composition factors of a nonstrongly complete profinite group
