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Navigating Uncertainty
Get PDFMalawi’s economy is in a deep and protracted crisis marked by elevated inflation, declining living standards, and high rates of food insecurity. Since 2020, Malawi’s economy has experienced a deep and protracted economic crisis. Economic growth rates have dropped from an average of 4.1 percent (2011-2019) to 2.2 percent since 2020. This economic growth rate is below the population growth rate of 2.6 percent, resulting in declining incomes for the average Malawian. In 2024, economic output growth further slowed to 1.8 percent, influenced by an El-Niño-induced drought and continued foreign exchange shortages. While external shocks like cyclones, droughts, and geopolitical instability have adversely affected Malawi, their impacts were exacerbated by policy shortfalls. Neighboring countries have tended to recover more quickly from the same shocks, but Malawi’s challenges have been compounded by longstanding policies that have contributed to widening fiscal and current account deficits. These include a procyclical fiscal policy stance, an overvalued official exchange rate, unsustainable borrowing practices, increasing trade restrictions, and price controls. Exchange rate distortions have grown, driving parallel market premia to periodically exceed 150 percent. The government’s economic reform program, supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Credit Facility and development partner support, was launched in November 2023 to restore macroeconomic stability. However, program implementation faced numerous challenges and was not able to stabilize the economy, resulting in its automatic termination in May 2025. As Malawians navigate both global and domestic uncertainty, the 21st edition of the Malawi Economic Monitor argues for the importance of taking urgent and targeted actions to stabilize the economy. Malawi’s economy is facing increasing pressure from rising imbalances, shifting global trade and aid dynamics, and the upcoming general elections. It will be important to focus on stabilization, along with a coherent macroeconomic framework that does not further exacerbate a deterioration of fiscal and external balances. There are some bright spots in the economy, especially through mega-projects in the energy and mining sectors that are advancing. For these to help drive growth, sectoral and macro-fiscal reforms will need to move forward to ensure the country makes the most of these opportunities
FY 2025 Timor-Leste Country Opinion Survey Report
Get PDFThe Country Opinion Survey in Timor-Leste assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Timor-Leste perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Timor-Leste on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Timor-Leste; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Timor-Leste; 3) overall impressions of the WBG’s effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Timor-Leste; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG’s future role in Timor-Leste
A Breath of Change: Solutions for Cleaner Air in the Indo-Gangetic Plains and Himalayan Foothills
Get PDFAir pollution across the Indo-Gangetic Plains and Himalayan Foothills (IGP-HF) has reached critical levels, threatening health and productivity for nearly one billion people. The impacts are severe: cardiovascular and respiratory diseases have become leading causes of illness and death, average life expectancy in the IGP-HF region is shortened by more than three years, and around one million people die prematurely each year from exposure to polluted air. The associated economic damage is estimated at about 10 percent of regional gross domestic product (GDP) annually, driven by lost labor productivity, higher healthcare costs, and reduced human capital. This Solutions Book, A Breath of Change, sets out a practical roadmap for achieving the region’s shared, intermediate target of reducing annual average PM2.5 concentrations below 35 µg/m³ by 2035 (“35 by 35”), while laying the foundation for progressively cleaner air. Building on the diagnostics and country experiences synthesized in Striving for Clean Air, the solutions book moves from why clean air matters and what drives pollution to how to address air pollution. In other words, how coordinated, feasible, and evidence-based solutions can be implemented at scale. The IGP-HF airshed, an interconnected system spanning 13 jurisdictions across Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, demands solutions that are both multi-sectoral and multi-jurisdictional. Chapter 1 explains why air quality matters in the IGP-HF. Chapter 2 presents sources of air pollution. The Solutions Book highlights a portfolio of interventions in each of the five key pollution emitting sectors: scaling up access to clean cooking fuels and appliances in chapter 3; electrifying and modernizing industrial boilers, furnaces, kilns and thermal power plants in chapter 4; accelerating the transition to electric and efficient vehicles alongside improvements in fuel quality, and strengthening of non-motorized transport in the transport sector in chapter 5; promoting sustainable agricultural crop residue, livestock manure and fertilizer management in chapter 6; and improving waste collection, segregation, and recycling in chapter 7. In parallel, protective sectors, particularly health in chapter 8 and education in chapter 9, play a vital role in helping people cope while air quality remains poor. ross-cutting themes are woven throughout the sectoral chapters, with deeper exploration of governance frameworks, market-based instruments and regional cooperation provided in chapters 10 to 12
Lessons Learned Exercise for Emergency Preparedness and Response in Nigeria: Strengthening Emergency Planning and Response in Nigerian Cities and Communities - Building Urban Flood Resilience in Nigeria
Get PDFThe Lessons Learned Exercise (LLE) for Emergency Preparedness and Response (EP&R) in Nigeria is a joint initiative between the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) and the World Bank (WB), spanning eighteen Nigerian states. The LLE is a government-led review of existing EP&R arrangements that aimed to: (i) facilitate discussions of systems, procedures, and experiences related EP&R capacity in Nigeria by engaging key government and disaster relief agencies at the local, state, and federal levels, and (ii) generate actionable recommendations to develop a roadmap for enhancing disaster preparedness and response. While the LLE primarily focused on the 2022 floods that affected Nigeria’s 34 out of 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), it also captured experiences from other recent disasters. The exercise involved a detailed examination of event timelines and government responses at the federal, state, and community levels. The WB also conducted stakeholder discussion in seven cities, which captured experiences relevant to each locality’s unique contexts and environments. This broader scope facilitated a comprehensive understanding of gaps in EP&R. The LLE exercise focused on the 18 states that were most impacted by the 2022 floods. In-person meetings were held in 6 states, and the WB conducted virtual meetings with stakeholders in the remaining 12
Viet Nam Macro Monitoring, October 2025
Get PDFIndustrial production continued to strengthen in October, supported by solid export performance and robust construction activity. Export growth remained strong for the foreign-invested sector, which continued to expand, while domestic firms faced slower orders. Domestically, demand weakened amid cautious consumer sentiment and unfavorable weather conditions, as evidenced by slower retail sales growth. Inflation eased slightly, mainly due to lower transport costs following a decline in global oil prices. The exchange rate stabilized in October amid devaluation pressures
The ABCs of Long-Term Care: A Functional Framework for Building System Capacity
Get PDFThis paper provides conceptual guidance to policymakers and practitioners on the
development of long-term care (LTC) as a core component of inclusive healthy aging
strategies. It aims to highlight the rationale for investing in LTC, set out the core system functions that must be strengthened to build effective and sustainable LTC systems, and provide practical policy entry points that policymakers can adapt to their own country contexts. In doing so, the paper supports alignment across relevant sectors, namely health, social protection, and finance, and provides a shared framework for engaging on LTC. It builds on existing World Bank reports and reflects the growing recognition of LTC as a distinct policy area
A Responsible Data Sharing Framework for the Distributed Renewable Energy Sector
Get PDFIn collaboration with Nigeria’s Rural Electrification Agency, the World Bank is piloting a Responsible Data Sharing Framework (RDSF) for the distributed renewable energy sector. The framework was developed over the course of 12 months in 2024, through collaboration with some 25 stakeholders from government and the private sector. It embodies a shared ambition to turn data into better outcomes for the communities served. At its core, an RDSF for the sector sets out how appropriate data about projects can be shared in ways that are efficient and effective. In 2023, the World Bank approved the Nigeria Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up (DARES) project. DARES aims to bring new or improved access to clean energy to 17.5 million people and replace more than 280,000 petrol and diesel generators in the process. The RDSF pilot is part of DARES
An Evaluation of the World Bank Group Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence, 2020–25
Get PDFThe Bank Group launched the 2020–25 Fragility, Conflict, and Violence (FCV) Strategy with the aim of strengthening its engagements and operations in countries affected by fragility, violence, and conflict. The strategy aimed to address the drivers and consequences of FCV and to build resilience, especially among the most vulnerable populations. It proposed changes to the Bank Group’s operational framework, including in its programming, personnel, partnerships, policies, and financing tools, towards engaging more effectively in FCV contexts. This evaluation examines the relevance and implementation of the strategy’s adjustments to the Bank Group’s operational approaches in FCS. It seeks to inform the revised World Bank Group FCV strategy by integrating insights and lessons learned from the 2020–25 strategy. Three recommendations include: (i) Publish an implementation plan for the FCV strategy to link strategic intent with action. (ii) Enhance FCV-sensitive programming and approaches. (iii) Revamp Bank Group financial and personnel resource frameworks and data systems to better align with the operating requirements in FCV
Socioemotional Skills in Sub-Saharan Africa: Validating and Comparing Behavioral and Self-Reported Measures
Get PDFThis paper validates a new set of behavioral measures for socioemotional skills across three Sub-Saharan African countries—Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Tanzania—and compares them to widely used self-reported measures. The behavioral measures demonstrate strong psychometric properties and are significantly associated with key outcomes, particularly in employment and income. Relationship management skills emerge as the most consistent predictors of economic outcomes, especially when measured behaviorally. Behavioral measures show weaker associations with social desirability bias and stronger correlations with economic outcomes, and self-reports are more predictive of mental health. In two countries, changes in behavioral socioemotional skills over time significantly predict labor market improvements—an effect not observed with self-reports—highlighting their value for program evaluation. Correlations between measurement types are modest, with variation often driven more by measurement modality than underlying skill differences. These findings suggest that behavioral measures can offer more reliable instruments for policy and intervention design in low-income settings
Behavioral Insights for the Green Transition: Capturing Household Beliefs, Preferences, and Attitudes in ECA
Get PDFThe Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region faces significant climate-related risks and promoting sustainable practices is crucial for long-term growth. Climate change is having a profound impact on the countries of the ECA region. ECA has some of the highest per capita carbon emissions in the world due to fossil-fuel-dependent, energy-intensive economies. The consequences of this dependency on the environment, coupled with rising energy prices in the region, signal a strong need for sustainable clean energy solutions (particularly in renewable energy) and transitions to less-energy-intensive technologies and practices. The World Bank’s ECA climate roadmap identifies transition risk as the biggest challenge facing the region, requiring critical action on areas related to energy, industry, transport, urban development, food, landscapes, and water. Addressing these areas will require a whole economic approach that considers the unique contributions of policy, financing, and people. This report provides valuable insights into the behavioral dimensions of climate change in the region, highlighting the need for tailored policies that address both individual and systemic barriers