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Household Economic Impacts of Conflict and Floods in Nigeria
No full textThis paper investigates the impact of conflicts on flood-affected households in Nigeria, utilizing a balanced panel dataset derived from the Living Standards Measurement Survey data collected in 2012, 2015, and 2018, and geo-spatial conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. The analysis employs difference-in-difference regressions to examine whether conflicts have a measurable effect on households and whether this effect is intensified when considering flood exposure. The study focuses on households' consumption expenditure outcomes, comparing conflict-affected and non-conflict-affected households, and further narrows down to flood-affected households. The results indicate that conflict-affected households experience lower consumption expenditure compared to non-conflict-affected households, with the adverse effects being significantly more pronounced for those also affected by floods. The study also investigates these effects on households’ income, albeit with a smaller sample. Similar findings, although less robust, were noted when analyzing income trends. The findings underscore the compounded vulnerabilities faced by households in conflict and flood-prone areas, highlighting the need for integrated policy interventions to address the compounded impacts of these shocks
Mapping Childcare Programs and Gaps in Provision in Areas with Employment Opportunities for Women in Honduras
Get PDFThis study examines the care arrangements and needs of urban households with young
children in Honduras and measures them relative to the provision of childcare services in the
country. The study also investigates the changing burden of childcare during the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting impact on opportunities for female labor force participation and income generation. The analysis involves primary data collection on both the demand and the supply of childcare
Central Bank Independence and Sovereign Borrowing
Get PDFThis paper studies the impact of central bank independence on sovereign borrowing, using an index that captures institutional constraints on central bank lending to the government across 155 countries from 1972 to 2023. The findings show that tighter lending to the executive significantly reduces sovereign interest rates and raises the debt-to-gross domestic product ratio in developing countries. These effects reflect the executive’s improved ability to borrow at lower costs under greater central bank independence. The results are robust to multiple tests, but there are no significant effects in advanced economies. From a policy perspective, the results highlight the key role of independent central banks as catalysts for reducing governments’ borrowing costs and enhancing the government’s borrowing capacity
Evidence from a Large-Scale Educational Intervention in India
Get PDFIndia faces high youth disengagement and a persistent gender gap in entrepreneurship. To address these challenges, the state of Andhra Pradesh piloted the Entrepreneurial Mindset Development Program (EMDP), a 50-hour school-based curriculum delivered to Grade 9 students. The intention of the government was to improve the employability of the youth and educate students to learn to get along and get ahead in life - as described by implementing partners. Results from a large-scale randomized evaluation show that the program strengthened students’ agency, improved financial literacy and academic outcomes—especially for girls—and fostered more gender-equitable classroom dynamics. Female students also demonstrated higher-quality entrepreneurial pitches and greater investor interest. The program has low implementation costs and therefore it offers a scalable pathway to equip young people—particularly young women—with the skills and confidence needed to pursue education, employment, and enterprise
A Public Finance Review for Kenya
Get PDFThis public finance review (PFR) for Kenya aims both to ensure that every tax shilling benefits the Kenyan taxpayer and to inform the development of a fiscal policy that fosters job creation, poverty reduction, and equity. This PFR explores policy measures that could reduce Kenya’s debt-to- gross domestic product (GDP) ratio by about one-third within 10 years, returning the country to a position closer to its debt level of the 2010s, when the debt buildup began. This scenario takes into consideration increasing economic growth, real wages, and consumption across society. Under this scenario, it is estimated that Kenya’s debt-to-GDP ratio will fall to about 44 percent of GDP by 2035, close to the mid-2010s figure. Real wages and consumption can rise by about 4 percent if all reforms are implemented, and GDP growth and labor productivity by 7.1 and 6.4 percent respectively. The current fiscal situation reflects two underlying constraints. This PFR recommends revenue policies focused on enhancing the efficiency and equity of the tax system while reducing tax exemptions and distortions that further narrow the tax base and repress growth. In certain areas, especially leasehold rents and property taxation, there are clear opportunities to raise additional revenues. While land- and property-based taxes are generally non-distortionary and have the capacity to provide stable, predictable long-term revenues, they are administratively complex and require significant upfront and notable ongoing investments in systems and training. They also rely on a commitment to enforce nonpayment. In addition, the current property tax system in Kenya will benefit from legislative reform, which has a significant lead time and no guarantee of success. Looking beyond the budget, by implementing fiscal, governance, and structural reforms, Kenya can achieve fiscal sustainability while creating jobs and generating services. This PFR provides a range of policy options for the country to achieve these outcomes in the shorter and longer term
A Technical Note
Get PDFAmid rapid labor market changes and aging workforces, countries need institutionalized programs and services that support lifelong skill development and utilization, from the school-to-work transition through adulthood. This technical note presents a conceptual framework for building skills systems that promote lifelong learning and employment for adults and out-of-school youth, alongside a review of relevant literature and examples from countries at varying stages of economic development. The framework emphasizes the need for flexible, modular training pathways—including short-term, on-the-job, and foundational skills training—as well as career guidance and recognition of prior learning. It highlights the roles of diverse public and private training providers, employers, and government actors in financing, coordinating, and delivering services aligned with labor market needs. Effective systems tailor interventions to individuals’ career stages and profiles, leveraging labor market data and employer input. Governments play a key role in ensuring governance, sustainable financing, and labor market information systems. Many low- and middle-income countries are still in the early stages of developing lifelong skills systems and can leapfrog existing models by learning from global examples, including those from high-income countries, and adapting them to local contexts where private sector involvement is often more prominent. Institutionalizing adult training as a permanent function, rather than an ad hoc intervention, can enhance workforce adaptability, social mobility, and economic resilience in an evolving labor market
Evidence from a Composite Scholarship for Ugandan Students
Get PDFSecondary school completion in sub-Saharan Africa is the lowest in the world. Given the multiple constraints households face, the scope of purely demand-side interventions to narrow the completion gap may be large. This paper quantifies this scope by studying how jointly relaxing key demand-side constraints affects learning, graduation, and the labor market entry of talented and economically disadvantaged students in Uganda. The study randomizes access to a “big push” scholarship program covering fees, school placement, school inputs, and a cash transfer equivalent to 50 percent of the adult wage. The program raises test scores and pushes completion rates to high-income country levels; it halves fertility and increases the share of women who work while studying. Students' families of origin also benefit by becoming wealthier and happier. Results show that relaxing demand-side constraints benefits students and doubles as an antipoverty intervention for their households
Assessing Learning Losses Using Adaptive Technology
Get PDFThis paper quantifies learning losses between 2020 and 2022 in the Dominican Republic, an upper-middle-income country. The paper uses data from a sample of ninth-grade students who benefited from computer adaptive learning software during this period. This study is among a few to measure actual losses among secondary school students, and it is the first to use detailed data on students’ mastery of individual math topics to do so. The findings show no evidence of learning losses in our analysis sample. However, the paper documents concerningly low learning levels, with the average student mastering only 45 percent of pre-requisite topics for their grade. These results should be interpreted with caution, as they are based on a select sample of urban schools and may not fully reflect broader educational trends across the country
Pathways to High Income Future
Get PDF"This report explores policies to achieve Viet Nam's goal of becoming a high-income economy by 2045. This bold ambition will require not only faster economic growth than over the last four decades but also a new growth model and better jobs to avoid the middle-income trap. The report proposes a comprehensive reform agenda of five connected policy packages to achieve this goal: (i) strengthening private initiatives of domestic firms, (ii) investing in resilient infrastructure and green growth, (iii) upskilling the labor force, (iv) ensuring an equitable distribution of gains, and (v) modernizing institutions for a fast, resilient and inclusive growth trajectory.
A New Database
Get PDFThis paper introduces a new global database with estimates of intergenerational income mobility for 87 countries, covering 84 percent of the world’s population. This marks a notable expansion of the cross-country evidence base on income mobility, particularly among low- and middle-income countries. The estimates indicate that the negative association between income mobility and inequality (known as the Great Gatsby Curve) continues to hold across this wider range of countries. The database also reveals a positive association between income mobility and national income per capita, suggesting that countries achieve higher levels of intergenerational mobility as they grow richer