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Forecasting cyber threats and pertinent mitigation technologies
Get PDFGeopolitical instability is exacerbating the risk of catastrophic cyber-attacks striking where defences are weak. Nev- ertheless, cyber-attack trend forecasting predominantly relies on human expertise, which is susceptible to subjectivity and potential bias. As a solution, we have recently presented a novel study that harnesses machine learning for long-term cyber-attack forecast- ing. Building upon this groundwork, our research advances to the next level, by predicting the disparity between cyber-attack trends and the trend of the relevant alleviation technologies. Our predictive analysis aims to offer strategic insights for the decision of investment in cyber security technologies. It also provides a sound foundation for the strategic decisions of national defence agencies. To achieve this objective, we have expanded our dataset, which now encompasses records spanning 42 distinct cyber-attack types and various related features, alongside data concerning the trends of 98 pertinent technologies, dating back to 2011. The dataset features were meticulously curated from diverse sources, including news articles, blogs, government advisories, as well as from platforms such as Elsevier, Twitter, and Python APIs. With our comprehensive dataset in place, we construct a graph that elucidates the intricate interplay between cyber threats and the development of pertinent alleviation technologies. To forecast the graph, we introduce a novel Bayesian adaptation of a recently proposed graph neural network model, which effectively captures and predicts these trends. We further demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed features in this context. Furthermore, our study extends its horizon by generating future data projections for the next three years, encompassing forecasts for the evolving graph, including predictions of the gap between cyber-attack trends and the trend of the associated technologies. As a consequential outcome of our forecasting efforts, we introduce the concept of “alleviation technologies cycle”, delineating the key phases in the life cycle of 98 technologies. These findings serve as a foundational resource, offering valuable guidance for future investment and strategic defence decisions within the realm of cyber security related technologies
Performance-based reimbursement, illegitimate tasks, moral distress and quality care in primary care: a mediation model of longitudinal data
Get PDFPurpose: To test the direct and indirect effect that performance-based reimbursement (PBR) within primary care has on perceived individual and organizational quality of care, and the role of illegitimate tasks and moral distress as potential mediators. Method: We used the Longitudinal Occupational Health survey in Healthcare Sweden with data collected in 2021, 2022, and 2023, including 454 Swedish primary care physicians. PBR was measured using a single item. The Bern Illegitimate Tasks Scale measured illegitimate tasks, and moral distress was measured with a 10-item scale. Six items from the English National Health Staff Survey were used to measure the quality of individual and organizational care. Result: Of the 454 participants, 70.2% reported that PBR negatively impacted their work. PBR was negatively associated with illegitimate tasks (b, -.160 [CI, -.240, -.080]) and moral distress (b, -.134 [CI, -.210, -.058]), which in turn was associated with individual and organizational quality of care. Using mediation models, we found an indirect (b, .011 [CI, .004, .021]) but no direct (b, .062 [CI, .019, .143]) effect between PBR on the quality of individual care. Conclusion: PBR systems should account for the experience of individual primary care physicians to ensure effective, safe, and quality care, as this study shows how the level of illegitimate tasks and moral distress due to a PBR system can undermine care delivery. Consequently, it is imperative for stakeholders to consider how healthcare systems relate to the healthcare workforce’s work experience, well-being, and the care being provided
Black feminist practice in decolonising for social justice and well-being
No full textBook synopsis: How do different gender identities interact with the key challenge of decolonising higher education?
Editor Jan Etienne brings together a range of experiences from a diverse group of feminist scholars to explore how perspectives of race, class, gender, and social identity can impact and inform decolonising activism.
Ideal reading for students of Gender Studies, Critical Race Theory Studies, Black Studies, Decolonial Studies, Activism Studies, and other related and interdisciplinary courses, this book will be of interest to all scholars interested in the decolonisation of the higher education curriculum
Decolonisation, intersectionality, and change: black and decolonial feminist collaboration
No full textBook synopsis: How do different gender identities interact with the key challenge of decolonising higher education?
Editor Jan Etienne brings together a range of experiences from a diverse group of feminist scholars to explore how perspectives of race, class, gender, and social identity can impact and inform decolonising activism.
Ideal reading for students of Gender Studies, Critical Race Theory Studies, Black Studies, Decolonial Studies, Activism Studies, and other related and interdisciplinary courses, this book will be of interest to all scholars interested in the decolonisation of the higher education curriculum
Breaking through suppression: face expertise selectively modulates very early awareness of high level face properties
Get PDFNeurotypical variability in face recognition abilities is known to be driven by differences present across multiple elements of an extended processing pathway, i.e., from early visual perception through to later explicit retrieval and recall. Here across two experiments, we utilised breaking Continuous Flash Suppression paradigms to explore the earliest stage of face encoding: the lead up to conscious detection. We investigated whether faces selectively receive preferential access to awareness among participants with relatively stronger (cf. weaker) face recognition abilities at the categorical level (contrasting detection of faces with another object category) and higher levels of face processing (exploring differences associated with orientation and attractiveness). Both experiments identified selectively faster access to awareness for faces over a non-face object control (houses) in better face recognisers at both the group and individual level. Experiment two further clarified that these expertise-related effects are selective to upright (cf. inverted) faces, indicating that this link is unlikely to be solely driven by sensitivity to low level visual cues. We also observed expertise-related modulation of attractiveness effects on CFS breakthrough, consistent with the possibility that individuals with higher levels of face processing ability have accelerated early access to even this high-level stimulus dimension. Taken together these experiments provide new insight into very early face perception, and the extent to which expertise modulates this processing stage at both the group and individual level
Firm ownership and macroeconomics of incentive leakages
Get PDFQuestions about market power have become salient in macroeconomics. We consider the role of institutional structures in addressing these within a dynamic general equilibrium framework.
Standard models account for monopoly profits as a lump-sum transfer to the representative agent. We label this an ``incentive leakage,'' and show this to be a general characteristic of firm-optimal arrangements. We show that shareholder-operated or worker-operated firms that eliminate leakage can generate within-firm incentives that effectively reduce monopoly distortion in equilibrium. When all firms operate similarly, an additional general equilibrium effect arises through internalization of an aggregate demand externality. We characterize steady-state welfare across structures, and show how zero-leakage institutions lead to improvements towards the Golden Rule benchmark. Overall, our paper takes the first step towards an analysis of the macroeconomics of institutions without incentive leakage
Perceived coworkers' work addiction: scale development and associations with one's own workaholism, job stress, and job satisfaction in 85 cultures
Get PDFBackground: While the empirical data on the role of environmental factors in work addiction (WA) is steadily growing, little is known about the extent to which the workaholic environment contributes to the increased risk of WA and what are the relative contributions of direct supervisor's and colleagues' WA to one's own workaholism.
Methods: The Perceived Coworkers' Work Addiction Scale (PCWAS) assessing perceived direct supervisor's and colleagues' WA, defined as an addictive disorder, was administered alongside measures of WA, job stress, and job satisfaction in a total sample of 33,222 employees from 85 cultures across six continents (63.2% females, mean age 39.35 years).
Results: The PCWAS showed scalar measurement invariance between genders and job positions, and approximate measurement invariance across cultures. In most cultures, the perceived supervisor's and colleagues' WA correlated with one's own WA, job stress (positively), and job satisfaction (negatively). In structural equation models, perceived colleagues' rather than supervisor's WA was more strongly related to one's own WA and job stress in most cultures.
Discussion and conclusions: These findings suggest that the PCWAS is valid and reliable for assessing the workaholic environment, and it can be used globally to provide comparable and generalizable results. The present study is the first to show that WA may considerably depend on environmental factors in different cultures worldwide and that perceived colleagues' WA may play a particularly important role in this context. These findings may guide organizational interventions to decrease WA risks among employees and improve their well-being and productivity
Mechanistic basis of temperature-adaptation in microtubule dynamics across frog species
No full textCellular processes are remarkably effective across diverse temperature ranges, even with highly conserved proteins. In the context of the microtubule cytoskeleton, which is critically involved in a wide range of cellular activities, this is particularly striking as tubulin is one of the most conserved proteins while microtubule dynamic instability is highly temperature sensitive. Here, we leverage the diversity of natural tubulin variants from three closely related frog species that live at different temperatures. We determine the microtubule structure across all three species at between 3.0 - 3.6 Å resolution by cryogenic electron microscopy and find small differences at the β-tubulin lateral interactions. Using in vitro reconstitution assays and quantitative biochemistry, we show that tubulin’s free energy scales inversely with temperature. The observed weakening of lateral contacts and the low apparent activation energy for tubulin incorporation provide an explanation for the overall stability and higher growth rates of microtubules in cold adapted frog species. This study thus broadens our conceptual framework for understanding microtubule dynamics and provides insights into how conserved cellular processes are tailored to different ecological niches
Tectono-thermal evolution of the eastern Balkan: constraints from low temperature thermochronometry
No full textThis paper presents the first low-temperature thermochronologic data [fission track and (U-Th- Sm)/He analyses on apatite] on the eastern Balkan, an intraplate fold-and-thrust belt marking the boundary between the Moesian Platform to the north and a series of accreted lithospheric terranes to the south. This boundary has undergone a complex evolution, with multiple reactivations and contrasting kinematics. The analytical dataset and its statistical inverse modelling point to the shallow burial (~2-2.5 km) of syn-orogenic sediments in the frontal portion of the orogenic wedge followed by cooling/exhumation starting in the middle Eocene coeval with orogenic collapse; it also suggests Late Cretaceous unroofing of the Srednogorie Zone to the south. To the north, the flexed and partly deformed lower (Moesian) plate and the associated foredeep sediments have remained thermally unreset, retaining the Late Cretaceous provenance signature of the eroded hinterland. These findings imply relatively limited Cenozoic shortening/exhumation across the eastern Balkan. They are consistent with a significant amount of documented strike-slip deformation focused along inherited structural discontinuities related to a buried Triassic–Jurassic rift system. We propose a causative link between strike-slip deformation in the eastern Balkan and far-field stress transmission related to the oblique closure of the Vardar Ocean to the west
Linking monitoring data and timescales of mafic recharge during the 2013-17 eruption at Volcán de Colima, Mexico
Get PDFTimescales of mafic magma recharge beneath Volcán de Colima have been calculated from diffusion modelling of reversely zoned pyroxene crystals erupted in the 2013–17 interplinian eruptive period. The results suggest that injections of low volume mafic magma are periodic and ephemeral, residing in the plumbing system for only weeks to months before eruption. At least three separate periods of magma recharge and mixing occurred within c. 3 years in October 2013–April 2014, September 2014–June 2015 and November 2015–September 2016. These timescales have been compared with the continuous seismic monitoring of the volcano and quasi-continuous gas monitoring data. Each eruptive phase shows different patterns between petrological and monitoring data, suggesting a complex mixing-eruption relationship, which may be related to the frequency and volume of recharge events, as well as the thermal state of the magma reservoir. Low frequency or low volumes of magma injection may result in a lack of correlation with any change in the monitoring data. High frequency of magma injections priming the magma reservoir results in a strong correlation between recharge events and monitoring record, which may be useful for interpreting future monitoring data
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