Centre for the Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics
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Discharge Promotes Melt and Formation of Submarine Ice‐Shelf Channels at the Beardmore Glacier Grounding Zone
Get PDFUsing radar data from the Beardmore Glacier grounding zone, we image a narrow subglacial channel (300-500
m wide) that reaches a height of 200 m above the ambient ice-shelf draft. Using repeat ICESat-2 observations and Worldview digital elevation models, we show that this channel we observe with radar is part of a system of channels. These channels form near the grounding zone where the axis of the channels runs up-gradient in smoothed ice base elevation (perpendicular to smoothed ice base elevation contours). Downstream, these features are advected with the flow and expressed as Eulerian surface elevation change in differenced co-registered digital elevation models. Continuity calculations indicate that melt rates within the channel are at least 20 m yr-1. Idealized one-dimensional plume modeling indicates these melt rates require substantial meltwater discharge and are geographically continuous extensions of subglacial conduits we image upstream of the grounding zone. These basal-melt rates are
27 x higher than the ambient basal-melt rates in the Ross. Asymmetric melt across the width of the channel suggests there is cross-channel ocean boundary current that may affect the efficiency of energy exchange across the ice-shelf ocean boundary layer within the channel. This is consistent with recent model experiments that suggest ice shelf basal channel shape determines channelized ice-ocean interactions
Chronicle of destruction: the Wayanad landslide of July 30, 2024
No full textOn the morning of July 30, 2024, a catastrophic landslide struck Wayanad, India, in the ecologically sensitive Western Ghats, claiming over 260 lives, with many still missing beneath the debris. Here, we present a comprehensive overview of the landslide event based on field, satellite, and aerial images analysis, numerical modeling, and geotechnical testing to unravel the failure mechanism and its catastrophic impact on downstream communities. Our analysis revealed that a pre-existing crack, formed in 2020, acted as the initiation point for the recent failure. The underlying weathered and sheared geology, coupled with structural discontinuities, and thick soil strata, exacerbated by intense rainfall on July 29–30, catalyzed the transition of a planar slide into a catastrophic debris flow. Numerical simulations indicate that the debris flow initiated around 01:00 h, peaked at 04:00 h, and reached a maximum velocity of 28 m/s. The estimated volume of displaced material ranged between 5.17 × 10⁶ and 5.72 × 10⁶ m3, ranking it among the largest debris flows in India. The flow’s run-up height in the transitional zone reached 32 m, amplified by multiple damming effects and topographic features such as cascades and river sinuosity, causing extensive infrastructure damage to the downstream population. Given the terrain’s known fragility and history of sequential events, this region requires urgent attention for real-time monitoring and mitigation strategies to reduce future risks
UK hydrological outlook - May 2025
Get PDFThe Hydrological Outlook provides an insight into future hydrological conditions across the UK. Specifically, it describes likely trajectories for river flows and groundwater levels on a monthly basis, with a particular focus on the next three months.
Well established monitoring programmes provide the current status of both river flows and groundwater levels at many sites across the UK, and data from these programmes provide the starting point for the Outlook. A number of techniques are used to project forwards from the current state and results from these are used to produce a summary that includes a highlights map
Effects of fungicide application on the foliar endophytic fungi of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris)
No full textFollowing fungicide treatment of young Scots pine trees in Scotland targeted at Dothistroma septosporum, foliar fungal endophytic communities were investigated with culture-based methods and metabarcoding of cDNA. Compared to negative controls, application of fungicides resulted in significant reductions in the size and diversity of endophytic communities with alterations to their taxonomic composition. While most taxa showed reductions in frequency and abundance across samples, Anthostomella pinea and a Preussia sp. temporarily increased. Thirteen taxa were identified using culturing, compared to 569 by metabarcoding (with 41 taxa accounting for 89.4 % of the total reads). Dothistroma septosporum and the reportedly unculturable Lophodermella conjuncta both contributed significantly to differences observed using metabarcoding but occurred at low levels or were absent, respectively, in the culture-based study. The persistent effects we observed of fungicides on the endophytic fungal community have possible practical implications for management of tree seedlings in the nursery
Trophic ecology of sooty albatross, segregating mechanisms from the congeneric light-mantled sooty albatross, and conservation implications
Get PDFThe trophic ecology of the Endangered sooty albatross (SA, 4 populations) was investigated using the concept of isotopic niche as a proxy of the trophic niche, and its isotopic metrics were compared with those of the congeneric Near Threatened light-mantled sooty albatross (LMSA, 4 populations). Three features differentiated SA from LMSA. (1) Feather δ 13 C and δ 15 N values of chicks and breeding adults were overall higher in SA than LMSA. This translates to more northern foraging grounds in the former than the latter species, with SA favouring warmer subtropical waters and LMSA colder waters of the Southern Ocean where they feed in part on low trophic level prey (likely Antarctic krill) at high latitudes. (2) Interestingly, SA from the Atlantic (Gough Island) differentiate from SA of the Indian Ocean (Marion, Crozet and Amsterdam Islands) by adult birds foraging primarily within the Southern Ocean in a similar way as LMSA from South Georgia, Marion, Crozet and Kerguelen Islands. (3) Calculations of the trophic niche width at the population and individual levels showed that SA from the Indian Ocean are specialist populations, while Gough Island SA and the 4 LMSA populations are generalist populations that include both generalist and specialist individuals. Consequently, both the preferential use of warm waters and the narrow trophic niche width of SA from the southern Indian Ocean imply a higher risk for SA than LMSA of being killed by subtropical tuna longline fisheries and being negatively impacted by environmental changes. Conversely, the preferential use of cold waters together with a large trophic niche width of SA from Gough Island suggest fewer negative interactions with direct and indirect human activities
End-to-end data-driven weather prediction
Get PDFWeather prediction is critical for a range of human activities including transportation, agriculture and industry, as well as the safety of the general public. Machine learning is transforming numerical weather prediction (NWP) by replacing the numerical solver with neural networks, improving the speed and accuracy of the forecasting component of the prediction pipeline. However, current models rely on numerical systems at initialisation and to produce local forecasts, limiting their achievable gains. Here we show that a single machine learning model can replace the entire NWP pipeline. Aardvark Weather, an end-to-end data-driven weather prediction system, ingests observations and produces global gridded forecasts and local station forecasts. The global forecasts outperform an operational NWP baseline for multiple variables and lead times. The local station forecasts are skillful up to ten days lead time, competing with a post-processed global NWP baseline and a state-of-the-art end-to-end forecasting system with input from human forecasters. End-to-end tuning further improves the accuracy of local forecasts. Our results show that skillful forecasting is possible without relying on NWP at deployment time, which will enable the full speed and accuracy benefits of data-driven models to be realised. We believe Aardvark Weather will be the starting point for a new generation of end-to-end models that will reduce computational costs by orders of magnitude, and enable rapid, affordable creation of customised models for a range of end-users
Co-contaminant risks in water reuse and biosolids application for agriculture
No full textAgriculture made the shift toward resource reuse years ago, incorporating materials such as treated wastewater and biosolids. Since then, research has documented the widespread presence of contaminants of emerging concern in agricultural systems. Chemicals such as pesticides, pharmaceuticals and poly- and -perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs); particulate matter such as nanomaterials and microplastics; and biological agents such as antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) and bacteria (ARB) are inadvertently introduced into arable soils where they can be taken up by crops and introduced to the food-web. Thus, concern about the presence of contaminants in agricultural environments has grown in recent years with evidence emerging linking agricultural exposure and accumulation in crops to ecosystem and human health effects. Our current assessment of risk is siloed by working within disciplines (i.e., chemistry and microbiology) and mostly focused on individual chemical classes. By not acknowledging the fact that contaminants are mostly introduced as a mixture, with the potential for interactions, with each other and with environmental factors, we are limiting our current approach to evaluate the real potential for ecosystem and human health effects. By uniting expertise across disciplines to integrate recent understanding regarding the risks posed by a range of chemically diverse contaminants in resources destined for reuse, this review provides a holistic perspective on the current regulatory challenges to ensure safe and sustainable reuse of wastewater and biosolids to support a sanitation-agriculture circular economy
Age and geology of granitoids in northeast Palmer Land, Antarctic Peninsula
No full textThe Antarctic Peninsula preserves a long history of Late Paleozoic and Mesozoic magmatism that reflects dynamic processes along the southwestern Gondwanan convergent margin. Granitoid magmatism is widespread across the Peninsula and records a complex history of subduction, massive silicic volcanism, and metamorphism. However, direct field observations are rare due to the inaccessibility of many remote outcrops, particularly in the central sector of the Antarctic Peninsula. Robust petrochronological data are even more scarce, limiting the ability to connect rock exposures across large ice-covered areas. Plutonic rocks across parts of the southern Antarctic Peninsula (northeast Palmer Land) lack detailed characterisation and geochronological constraints. Here, Usingle bondPb isotopes and trace elements (e.g., Ti, P, Ce, Eu, and other REEs) are analysed in zircon (n = 1148) from archived samples from Mount Faith, Mount Sullivan, and Engel Peaks to calculate the timing and nature of magmatic and metamorphic events. These data are supplemented with in situ and whole-rock geochemistry. The resulting magmatic crystallisation ages are Early Jurassic (188–179 Ma) for calc-alkaline, peraluminous, weakly S-type granitoids at all three locations. This novel age constraint for the Mount Faith Granite: (1) indicates it is distinct from all three granitoid emplacement phases at Mount Charity immediately south, and (2) provides an upper age limit on cross-cutting tholeiitic mafic dykes. Deformation of the Mount Faith Granite could reflect either post-crystallisation strain or syn-emplacement strain that deformed granitoids of the Subcordilleran Plutonic Belt. Early Cretaceous (116–120 Ma) recrystallisation of Early Jurassic zircon provide evidence of the first phases of the Palmer Land Event on the central Peninsula. New data presented here provide a detailed geochronology of granitoids in northeast Palmer Land that can be used for Mesozoic tectonic reconstructions
Future climate projections in the global coastal ocean
Get PDFResilient coastal communities and sustainable marine economies require actionable knowledge to plan for and adapt to emerging and potential future climate change, particularly in relation to ecosystem services and coastal hazards. Such knowledge necessarily draws heavily on coastal ocean modelling of future climate impacts, using a great diversity of both global and regional approaches to explore multiple societal challenges in coastal and shelf seas around the world. In this paper, we explore the challenges, solutions and benefits of developing a better coordinated and global approach to future climate impacts modelling of the coastal ocean, in the context of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development project Future Coastal Ocean Climates (FLAME; part of the CoastPredict programme). Particularly, we address the need for diverse modelling approaches to meet different societal challenges, how regions can be harmonised through clustering and typology approaches, and how coordination of experimental designs can promote a better understanding of uncertainties and regional responses. Improved harmonisation of future climate impact projections in the global coastal ocean would allow sectoral and cross-sectoral global scale risk assessments, improve process understanding and help build capacity in under-represented areas such as the global south and small island developing states. We conclude with a proposed framework for a Global Coastal Ocean Model Intercomparison Project
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