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Long-term individual and population effects of multiple stressors, using a model freshwater mollusc (Lymnaea stagnalis)
No full textHuman activities are driving biodiversity loss by increasing the exposure to multiple environmental stressors with pollution, climate change and invasive species being amongst the most important contributors. Here, we used the pond snail, Lymnaea stagnalis, as a model organism to investigate the combined effects of an environmentally relevant pollutant mixture, temperature increase and an invasive predator cue on physiological endpoints and behaviour. Dose-response data from single stressor exposures gathered over the partial life-cycle exposure period were used to calculate effect concentrations (EC10 and EC30) and responses to their combinations were investigated. At the EC30 for temperature (20 °C vs. 22 °C), effects were widely observed. While growth and reproduction were stimulated, this modest temperature increase negatively impacted survival (20 % reduction). Neither the pollutant mixture nor the predator cue severely impacted the examined responses and did not exacerbate the temperature effects. By contrast, the application of all three stressors at the EC30 level tended to ameliorate stress, compared to the temperature EC30 alone. Exploratory analyses also revealed that snails that avoided the predator cue by moving above the water line exhibited higher growth than those that remained in the water. Our results indicate that a number of organismal trade-offs may be occurring, such as between survival and reproduction, highlighting the complexities of predicting the impact of multiple stressors. Finally, the pronounced effects observed in response to this temperature increase (+2°C) is concerning, as this is within currently observed planetary warming, with organisms inhabiting small water bodies particularly susceptible due to their small water volumes
Towards a Global Ground-Based Earth Observatory (GGBEO): leveraging existing systems and networks
No full textTo tackle the planetary environmental and climate crisis and meet the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), we must fully leverage the potential of Earth observations (EO). This involves integrating globally sourced data on the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, along with ecological and socio-economic information. By harmonizing and integrating these diverse data sources, we can more effectively incorporate observational data into multi-scale modeling and artificial intelligence (AI) frameworks. This paper is based on discussions from the “Towards Global Earth Observatory” workshop held from May 8–10, 2023, organized by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Atmosphere and Climate Competence Center (ACCC), in collaboration with the Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) at the University of Helsinki. The current state of EO and data repositories is fragmented, highlighting the need for a more integrated approach to establish a new global Ground-Based Earth Observatory (GGBEO). Here, we summarize the current status of selected in-situ and ground-based remote sensing observation systems and outline future actions and recommendations to meet scientific, societal, and economic needs. In addition, we identify key steps to create a coordinated and comprehensive GGBEO system that leverages existing investments, networks, and infrastructures. This system would integrate regional and global ground-based in situ and remote sensing systems, marine, and airborne observational data. An integrated approach should aim for seamless coordination, interoperable and harmonized data repositories, easily searchable and accessible data, and sustainable long-term funding
The Arctic Ocean is a net sink for anthropogenic lead deposited into the Atlantic Ocean
No full textHumans emitted millions of tons of the toxic element lead (Pb) into the atmosphere. The North Atlantic Ocean has been strongly affected by atmospheric Pb deposition, however the role of ocean currents in dispersing the Atlantic dissolved Pb (dPb) burden remains unclear. Here, we show that the Arctic Ocean received a dPb flux of 611 ± 74 Mg·a-1 from the North Atlantic Ocean in 2015/2016, making the Arctic Ocean a previously unrecognized net sink of Atlantic dPb (378 ± 85 Mg·a-1). This input is comparable to Arctic riverine dPb discharge (344 ± 222 Mg·a-1). Lead isotope measurements trace the origin of dPb in the Arctic Ocean back to anthropogenic emissions from North America and Eurasia. Elevated dPb concentrations in the North Atlantic Ocean prior to the global-phase out of leaded gasoline (1986-2021) suggests ~5-fold higher fluxes from the North Atlantic in the late 1980s relative to 2015/2016, explaining the widespread contamination of Arctic abyssal sediments with Pb
Assessing the success of a horizon scanning approach in predicting invasive non‐native species arrival
No full text•1. Despite increasing awareness of invasive non‐native species (INNS) and enhanced biosecurity controls in many countries, INNS are still arriving and establishing in new destinations, remaining a globally acknowledged threat to native biodiversity. Preventing the introduction of INNS, as opposed to controlling them once they have arrived, is recognised as the most effective approach to their management. Horizon scanning represents one of the key tools to identify high‐risk INNS that have yet to arrive within a region and has been applied in many contexts around the world, but to date there have been no studies that systematically assess the effectiveness of this approach.
•2. Here, we revisit the horizon scan for Great Britain conducted in 2013 that assessed the likelihood of high‐risk INNS arriving within the next 10 years, establishing and having an impact on biodiversity and ecosystems. We evaluated the success of this exercise in predicting arrival of these species within the subsequent 10 years.
•3. Ninety‐two species were shortlisted in the 2013 horizon scan. In total, 31 of the 92 species identified in the 2013 horizon scan had arrived by 2023. We found that 12 of the top 20 species had arrived within 10 years. In predicting arrival, there was a significant effect of species having arrived previously to Great Britain, and the number of countries in Western Europe and Baltic countries in which an INNS was found prior to 2013.
•4. Policy implications : We conclude that horizon scanning provides a rapid, affordable and successful mechanism to predict the arrival of high‐risk INNS. We highlight the importance of citizen science, including biological recording, and of local expertise for detecting and documenting arrival of INNS. We discuss knowledge gaps that could help inform and improve future horizon scanning. In addition, we recommend regularly repeating horizon scanning exercises to support biosecurity and awareness raising for INNS
Standardising research on marine biological carbon pathways required to estimate sequestration at Polar and sub-Polar latitudes
No full textMarine biological (‘blue’) carbon pathways are crucial components of the global carbon budget due to the ecosystem services they provide through the fixation of CO2 from the atmosphere. CO2 is removed from biosphere through long-term sequestration into seafloor sediments, removing it from the carbon cycle. Coincident with marine ice loss, little studied negative (mitigating) feedbacks to climate change are emerging in polar waters, which is important to quantify and comprehend. Understanding the mechanisms driving these pathways, that could lead to change, is a massive task and to ensure studies are comparable requires standardisation and prioritisation of future research. The expertise of scientists within the EU grant, Coastal ecosystem carbon balance in times of rapid glacier melt (CoastCarb), identified the 23 most important high latitude pathways through a modified Delphi scoring system. Metrics were selected as priorities for future research and for syntheses across broader geographic regions. The metrics with the highest importance scores also scored as the metrics that could be most readily standardised in the next five years. This review provides a definition and description of how each metric is measured, including its central role to blue carbon pathways. It also provides recommendations for standardisation, emphasising the requirement for modelling studies to scale from geographically limited regions where high-resolution data is available. Where methods cannot be standardised, cross calibration between methods is required to ensure reproducibility. An increasing use of remote sensing and innovative technologies will be necessary to scale measurements across this vast and remote region
Calibrated sea level contribution from the Amundsen Sea sector, West Antarctica, under RCP8.5 and Paris 2C scenarios
Get PDFThe Amundsen Sea region in Antarctica is a critical area for understanding future sea level rise due to its rapidly changing ice dynamics and significant contributions to global ice mass loss. Projections of sea level rise from this region are essential for anticipating the impacts on coastal communities and for developing adaptive strategies in response to climate change. Despite this region being the focus of intensive research over recent years, dynamic ice loss from West Antarctica and in particular from the glaciers of the Amundsen Sea represents a major source of uncertainty for global sea level rise projections. In this study, we use ice sheet model simulations to make sea level rise projections to the year 2100 and quantify the associated uncertainty using a comprehensive Bayesian approach aided by deep surrogates. The model is forced by climate and ocean model simulations for the RCP8.5 and Paris 2C scenarios, and it is carefully calibrated using measurements from the observational period. We find very similar sea level rise contributions of 19.0±2.2 and 18.9±2.7 mm by 2100 for Paris 2C and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. A subset of these simulations, extended to 2250, shows an increase in the rate of sea level rise contribution, and clearer differences emerge between scenarios, with increasing snow accumulation in RCP8.5 resulting in less cumulative mass loss. Our model simulations include both cliff-height- and hydrofracture-driven calving processes, and yet we find no evidence of the onset of rapid retreat that might be indicative of an unstable calving front retreat in any simulations within our modelled time frame
Monitoring plastic pollution using bioindicators: a global review and recommendations for marine environments
Get PDFMonitoring the movement of plastic into marine food webs is central to understanding and mitigating the plastic pollution crisis. Bioindicators have been a component of the environmental monitoring toolkit for decades, but how, where, and which bioindicators are used in long-term monitoring programs has not yet been assessed. Moreover, these programs have yet to be synthesized and evaluated globally. Doing so is imperative if we are to learn from these pioneering programs and expand on their efforts. We reviewed global monitoring programs using bioindicators that focus on plastic pollution and found 11 worldwide that met our definition of long-term monitoring. Limited data availability and few programs in the Global South hinder progress on tracking global trends. Most commonly, long-term programs either tracked macroplastics with opportunistic sampling of large vertebrates or monitored microplastics with targeted sampling of invertebrates. These long-term bioindicators could be incorporated as essential ocean variables in the global ocean observing system, and thus provide critical insights into the trajectory and effects of plastic pollution on marine ecosystems. However, to enhance the effectiveness and inclusivity of these monitoring efforts, there is a pressing need for the implementation of harmonized and standardized methods, increased collaboration between regions, and greater support for data sharing and open science practices. By addressing these challenges and expanding the geographic scope of monitoring programs, we can better inform evidence-based policies and interventions aimed at mitigating plastic pollution on a global scale
Derivation of toxicity parameters from field data: analysis of lake zooplankton species responses to metals and acidity
Get PDFThe WHAM-FTOXβ model describes the toxic effects of mixtures of protons and metal cations towards biological species, using a set of intrinsic parameters for the cations (αH, αM*) and a sensitivity parameter (β) for each species. We applied the model to extensive water chemistry and zooplankton species occurrence data for four lakes contaminated with acidity and metals (Al, Ni, Cu, Zn) at Sudbury, Ontario, over the period 1973-2018, during which cation contamination declined, and zooplankton species numbers increased. Assuming that the appearance of a species resulted solely from decreases in water toxicity, and that αH and αM* values previously derived from laboratory toxicity test data could be applied in the field, we used the field data to estimate values of β for individual lake zooplankton species. Results for lake-species pairs with 20 or more species occurrences (from six samplings per year) were analysed. In most cases, the number of occurrences increased over time from zero to five or six per year, then remained at the high level. For a minority of pairs, occurrences per year increased initially, but subsequently declined, and so data only from the initial period were used to estimate β. The β values derived for the lake zooplankton are reasonably consistent with values derived from laboratory data for a range of other species. The findings support the application of WHAM-FTOXβ to describe toxic effects of mixtures of cations in the field, and the toxicity model might be combined with ecological theory to interpret natural population responses
Calculations of extreme sea level rise scenarios are strongly dependent on ice sheet model resolution
Get PDFThe West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing ice and its annual contribution to sea level is increasing. The future behaviour of WAIS will impact societies worldwide, yet deep uncertainty remains in the expected rate of ice loss. High-impact low-likelihood scenarios of sea-level rise are needed by risk-averse stakeholders but are particularly difficult to constrain. Here, we combine traditional model simulations of the Amundsen Sea sector of WAIS with Gaussian process emulation to show that ice-sheet models capable of resolving kilometre-scale basal topography will be needed to assess the probability of extreme scenarios of sea-level rise. This resolution exceeds many state-of-the-art continent-scale simulations. Our ice-sheet model simulations show that coarser resolutions tend to project a larger range of sea-level contributions than finer resolutions, inflating the tails of the distribution. We therefore caution against relying purely upon simulations 5 km or coarser when assessing the potential for societally important high-impact sea-level rise
Diversity and biogeography of the bacterial microbiome in glacier-fed streams
Get PDFThe rapid melting of mountain glaciers and the vanishing of their streams is emblematic of climate change1,2. Glacier-fed streams (GFSs) are cold, oligotrophic and unstable ecosystems in which life is dominated by microbial biofilms2,3. However, current knowledge on the GFS microbiome is scarce4,5, precluding an understanding of its response to glacier shrinkage. Here, by leveraging metabarcoding and metagenomics, we provide a comprehensive survey of bacteria in the benthic microbiome across 152 GFSs draining the Earth’s major mountain ranges. We find that the GFS bacterial microbiome is taxonomically and functionally distinct from other cryospheric microbiomes. GFS bacteria are diverse, with more than half being specific to a given mountain range, some unique to single GFSs and a few cosmopolitan and abundant. We show how geographic isolation and environmental selection shape their biogeography, which is characterized by distinct compositional patterns between mountain ranges and hemispheres. Phylogenetic analyses furthermore uncovered microdiverse clades resulting from environmental selection, probably promoting functional resilience and contributing to GFS bacterial biodiversity and biogeography. Climate-induced glacier shrinkage puts this unique microbiome at risk. Our study provides a global reference for future climate-change microbiology studies on the vanishing GFS ecosystem
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