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Fundamentals, real-time uncertainty and CDS index spreads
Full text linkThe high level of economic uncertainty linked to the pace of the recovery process can persist after a crisis and has implications for the market pricing of firms’ credit risk reflected in credit default swap (CDS) spreads. This paper examines the role of key proxies for the economic state and its real-time uncertainty in determining Northern American CDX index spreads. Focusing on the recovery period following the 2007–2009 global financial crisis, we find that measures of economic output, employment, inflation, and economic uncertainty, all significantly influence CDX spreads, beyond the impact of conventional determinants. Furthermore, our results provide evidence that the sensitivity of investment-grade and high-yield CDX differs across economic aspects. Moreover, our out-of-sample predictive analysis identifies indicators and uncertainty measures with significant predictive content for quarter-ahead CDX spreads. Taken together, our findings indicate that academic modelers and practitioners employing more accurate representations of the macroeconomy in CDS modeling and analysis can improve upon the models that rely solely on the typically employed economic output variables or on broad data aggregation
An Analysis of Cybersecurity Data Breach in The State of California
Full text linkAs the wave of data breaches continues to crash down on organisations, we will analyse the largest publicly available database of data breaches in the state of California using the public data breach database functioning under the state notification law of data breach. The dataset contains records since January 2012. These records were analysed in order to classify and identify California data breaches by multiple company types, attack vectors and sto-len personal information. The main findings were that Software vulnerabil-ity is the most common attack vector due to third-party software, the finan-cial industry is the most targeted industry while both large and small organ-isations are equally targeted by attackers. The analysis also found that cred-it/debit card information and social security numbers represent the most stolen personal information
MHTRs and Female Offenders - Policy Brief
Full text linkTo date, there is no available evidence that details outcomes of MHTRs for females, which is critical to an assessment of the viability of MHTRs to provide an effective and alternative solution to custody. This brief, therefore, is the first to provide evidence specific to females to support the development of alternatives to custody through mental health intervention, via MHTR pathways, in support of the Female Offender Strategy
Manning the British Empire: Gender, Identity and Emotions in Early Twentieth Century Britain
Full text linkThis article will provide a detailed analysis of the identity of one gentry man with an important role in making assessments of the manliness of others. It examines the way his gender identity was ‘structured in specific historical formations.’ Ralph Furse was a gatekeeper to elite masculine status through his prime position as a recruitment expert for the Colonial Office. His office was one of the ‘masculine spaces’ in Whitehall within which ideologies, power and authority were constructed. His position is all the more significant given that during this period of crisis in the empire the supply of manpower and the ‘…supply of men of a certain type – practical, resourceful and self-reliant…’ was particularly significant. Furse both reflected and helped influence wider gendered mentalities in the Colonial Service from his position at the centre of an ‘imperial power matrix.’ The interviews he recorded in his notes were a repetitive reinforcement and construction of his own masculinity as a young man finding his manly identity as well as a means of finding manliness in others. We then also see his masculinity as it had developed into his later life and as he reflected on it, after he retired from the colonial service, through his autobiography. The paper offers a number of arguments. Firstly, both sets of material remind us that ‘hegemonic masculinities’, if interpreted in a certain way, can reify subjective individual experiences and identities. Furse exhibits none of the assumed features of a ‘redundant gentleman’, arrogant though he certainly was. His ideal man for the job was broad and inclusive stretching to a diverse set of social groups, with whom, according to his autobiography, he seems to have felt an affinity. But secondly, this ideal referenced a matrix of masculine qualities considered desirable in the successful candidates he interviewed. This matrix included a sober and quiet character trained through ‘good schooling’, emotional self-control that was also exhibited in plain dress, an imposing and large bodily stature, preferable within a white body rather than a colonial one, a skilled or professional man that possessed harder masculine qualities, rather than the ‘softer’ assets of manhood. Overall, this matrix confirms the type of ‘imperial hero’ identified by John Tosh. It also confirms his broader argument that in the later nineteenth and early twentieth century a premium came to be placed on ‘tougher’ and ‘stoical’ men as an antidote to challenges to masculinity at home and to Britain’s imperial power overseas. But, thirdly, emotions played a role here too. Just as Furse sought out men who could control their own emotions and exhibited quite restrained emotional styles, he expected to experience a flat or muted emotional response to his favoured candidates. He reserved more emotive language for the candidates he dismissed as unsuitable
An Analysis of Current Continual Learning Algorithms in an Image Classification Context
Full text linkArtificial Intelligence aims to mimic natural intelligent learning by using lifelong-machine-learning, which allows an AI to train and learn over it's lifetime. Various algorithms have been suggested and developed to allow lifelong learning, these algorithms require deeper analysis, to evaluate and highlight performance benefits. In this research, we will study with three state-of-the-art algorithms for lifelong learning: Rehearsal, elastic-weight-consolidation and synaptic-intelligence. We do an analysis and evaluation of their performance in a multiple task experiment, using different amounts of data, measuring several performance metrics. We found that these algorithms are similar in performance, but some algorithms perform better than others with less data, or show good performance in task one, but not subsequent tasks. These algorithms could be built upon and improved in future research. The evaluation demonstrated in this research are in the image classification context
Ecological validation and practical challenges of conducting dietary analysis in athletic individuals using a novel remote food photography method mobile phone application
Full text linkPurpose: Dietary analysis is an important part of the sports nutrition practitioners’ role, however the ability to accurately collect and analyse dietary intake data is questionable. The remote food photography method (RFPM) has been proposed as a low-burden and potentially valid approach to collecting and interpreting dietary intake data. Preliminary research suggests this is valid in some athletic populations, however the ecological validation in real-life settings warrants further investigation. Methods: Twenty athletic individuals completed simultaneous three-day RFPM diaries and weighed food diaries for the analysis of energy, protein, carbohydrate, and fat. Participants were required to provide details alongside provided photographs that did not include food weights to allow for the estimation of nutrient intake from minimally invasive photographs and descriptions. Results: RFPM demonstrated non-significant random and systematic error against the weighed food diary for energy, protein, carbohydrate, and fat at -20.0 ± 455.5kcal, 3.2 ± 35.4g, -12.4 ± 49.3g and 2.3 ± 26.8g, respectively. Coefficient of variation suggest acceptable agreement between RFPM and weighed food diary for energy and poor agreement for protein, carbohydrate, and fat. Considerable variability is observed in the individual calculated values, with the least and greatest difference being 0% and -83.0%, respectively. Conclusion: The results indicate that the RFPM may be an ecologically valid tool for the collection and analysis of dietary intake data on a group level; on an individual basis, data and subsequent recommendations based on this must be applied with caution
Community Sentence Treatment Requirements (CSTR) : Preliminary Analysis of those on Dual Requirements Policy Brief – July 2023
Full text linkTo date, there is limited evidence that describes the outcomes of MHTRs for individuals also sentenced to either an ATR or DRR. This data is critical to assess the viability of MHTRs as part of a Dual Requirement and therefore support the development of ATR, DRR and MHTR pathways. This brief, therefore, is the first to provide evidence specific to Dual Requirements
Mobile Arts for Peace: Small Grants Evaluation Report
Full text linkThe Mobile Arts for Peace (MAP) project is an international study that seeks to provide a comparative approach to peace-building utilising interdisciplinary arts-based practices, working with communities in Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal and Rwanda (see figure 1.1). This research was commissioned by the project lead organisation, the University of Lincoln, and has been delivered by the University of Northampton’s Institute for Social Innovation and Impact (see Appendix A for research biographies). This report focuses on the Small Grants awarded across the four countries, and acts as a follow-up to the Phase One Report that was produced in the winter of 2021. The delivery of the Small Grants projects has taken place over the last 12 months across the above four countries, and this report seeks to demonstrate, through a narrative case-study approach, how the Small Grants work delivered has promoted arts-based peacebuilding and supported community cohesion. The research reported in this document took place between February and October 2022 and focused on the below research aim and four key research questions. Aim: To evaluate the efficacy of the MAP Small Grants projects and understand their impact in communities. Specifically: 1. What outputs were delivered through the Small Grants projects? 2. What outcomes for beneficiaries/stakeholders were delivered through the Small Grants projects? 3. What impacts delivered for communities and societies across the four countries were delivered through the Small Grants projects? The report is structured as follows: first, the methodological approach undertaken in the evaluation will be presented; second, the case-studies across the four countries will be presented and discussed, utilising data gathered by the in-country research teams and the arts-based outputs produced; third, the findings will be summarised, with specific recommendations also made for the implications related to the MAP Large Grant evaluation projects and the recently awarded MAP Medium Grant projects. References and Appendices can also be found at the end of the report
Internet Gaming Disorder among Undergraduate Health Sciences Students in the Pokhara Valley: a Cross-Sectional Study
Full text linkIntroduction: Internet Gaming Disorder (IGD) is an emerging public health impact of technological advancement and globalization. This study was conducted to assess the prevalence and factors associated with IGD among Undergraduate Health Sciences students. Methods: A web-based cross-sectional study was conducted during the period of November to July 2020. A total of 412 college students from Undergraduate Health Sciences colleges of Pokhara Metropolitan city in Gandaki province, Nepal were enrolled. Online google forms were sent to all the eligible students through email and other social media sites like Facebook with the help of the coordinator and class representative. Collected data were analyzed using SPSS IBM v.22 Results: The finding of the study shows that the prevalence of Internet Gaming Disorder among Undergraduate Health Sciences students was 7.1%. Sex (p=0.027), Loneliness level at home (p=0.019), number of close friends (p Conclusion: Sex of the participants, loneliness level at home, number of close friends, types of game, time spent on the gameplay, and type of gamer are the contributing factors for developing Internet Gaming Disorder. It is important to focus on these factors to address Internet Gaming Disorder and its psychological health effects
Manage and Evaluate the Performance of the End-to-End 5G Inter/Intra Slicing using Machine Learning in a Sustainable Environment
Full text linkThe 3G Partnership Project (3GPP) defined network slicing as a set of resources that could be scaled up and down to cover users' requirements. Machine learning and network slicing will be used together to manage and optimize the resources efficiently. In this research, a set of slices is implemented over the 5G networks to provide an efficient service to the end-user using softwarization and virtualization technologies. In the proposed prototype, the end-user connected to more than eight inter and intra-slices according to the demands. Traffic is generated over multiple scenarios then End-to-End slicing was analyzed after generating real-time traffic over the 5G networks and the features extracted from the traffic based on the flow behaviors. A set of elements selected from the datasets according to machine learning behaviours. From the first and second datasets, only five out of seven features will be selected. Then, seven out of nine features will be selected from the third dataset. Machine learning is applied to our datasets using MATLAB. After that, the best model is chosen to train and predict the slices in less CPU usage and less training time to reduce the computational power in future networks to build a sustainable environment. Furthermore, regression application is used to predict the slice type on the third dataset with the minimum squared error
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