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Polarization under rising inequality and economic decline
No full textSocial and political polarization is a significant source of conflict and poor governance in many societies. Understanding its causes has become a priority of scholars across many disciplines. Here we demonstrate that shifts in socialization strategies analogous to political polarization and identity politics can arise as a locally-beneficial response to both rising wealth inequality and economic decline. Adopting the perspective of cultural evolution, we develop a framework to study the emergence of polarization under shifting economic environments. In many contexts, interaction with diverse out-groups confers benefits from innovation and exploration greater than those that arise from interacting exclusively with a homogeneous in-group. However, when the economic environment favors risk-aversion, a strategy of seeking lower-risk interactions can be important to maintaining individual solvency. To capture this dynamic, we assume that in-group interactions have a lower expected outcome than out-group interactions, but also one that is more certain. Thus in-group interactions are less risky than out-group interactions. Our model shows that under conditions of economic decline or increasing wealth inequality, some members of the population benefit from adopting a risk-averse, in-group favoring strategy. Moreover, we show that such in-group polarization can spread rapidly to the whole population and persist even when the conditions that produced it have reversed. Finally we offer empirical support for the role of income inequality as a contributor to affective polarization in the United States. Our work provides a framework for studying how disparate forces interplay, via cultural evolution, to shape patterns of identity, and unifies what are often seen as conflicting explanations for political polarization: identity threat and economic anxiety
Digitizing Collective Action: How Digital Technologies Support Civil Society’s Struggle against Corruption
No full textThis dissertation looks at the use of digital technologies in anti-corruption. It thereby responds to the increasing prominence of the fight against corruption as a research topic, and issue to address for activists and politicians around the world, as well as the ever-growing impact of digitalisation on governance. It answers the research question in what way and how effectively information and communication technology contribute to the control of corruption.
In its first part, this dissertation provides an overview of the past twenty years of academic publications on the use and the effectiveness of digital technologies in anti-corruption. I structure the available literature according to its level of analysis, looking at theoretical and large-n studies compared to case specific and qualitative work. I also structure it according to the mechanism that is linking different technologies to a better control of corruption, namely e-government access, upward transparency, downward transparency and mobilisation. In doing so, it highlights gaps in the literature and open questions to research. Subsequently, I am zooming in on the role of civil society in its use of digital technologies, arguing that digital technologies are a tool that can support the role of civil society in controlling corruption. This argument builds on anti-corruption theories and thus lays the groundwork for testing it in two different settings.
First, I provide evidence from a global, quantitative dataset, using marginal effects analysis to provide evidence for a positive correlation of civil society capacity, access to information and communication technology and better control of corruption. Second, I analyse a case study, looking at the use of e-procurement in Ukraine since 2014. I am testing if different civil society capacities in Ukrainian regions had an impact on corruption risks measured in Ukrainian tenders. While the quantitative data analysis gives clear, positive results concerning the relationship described above, the case study on Ukraine does not offer conclusive evidence on the effectiveness of civil society capacity and ICT access in the fight against corruption. The dissertation concludes by calling for future research into this relationship, especially by using data on public procurement
Cross-border skill formation and institutional bricolage: the case of Luxembourg and its neighbors
No full textThe core argument of this paper is that Luxembourg’s location between the larger European nations of France and Germany is constitutive of skill development in this small state. On the one hand, Luxembourg continuously borrows educational models and principles from its two large(r) neighbors – which both represent major European models of skill formation. Thus, in Luxembourg’s skill formation system, ele-ments from these two ‘big’ states get ‘mixed,’ although they are not necessarily complementary. On the other hand, Luxembourg compensates for its small size through impressive levels of cross-border activity with neighboring subnational regions in France, Germany, and Belgium – including in the cross-border provision of training. It does this through institutional bricolage and direct cooperation with neighboring countries – in this way significantly enlarging the scope and capacities of its national education system
Hard Protection through Soft Courts? Non-Refoulement before the United Nations Treaty Bodies
No full textThis Article comparatively analyses how the prohibition of refoulement is interpreted by United Nations Treaty Bodies (UNTBs) in their individual decision-making, where we suggest they act as “soft courts.” It asks whether UNTBs break ranks with or follow the interpretations of non-refoulement of the European Court of Human Rights. This investigation is warranted because non-refoulement is the single most salient issue that has attracted individual views from UNTBs since 1990. Moreover, our European
focus is warranted as nearly half of the cases concern states that are also parties to the European Convention on Human Rights. Based on a multi-dimensional analysis of non-refoulement across an
original dataset of over 500 UNTB non-refoulement cases, decided between 1990–2020, as well as pertinent UNTB General Comments, the Article finds that whilst UNTBs, at times, do adopt a more
progressive position than their “harder” regional counterpart, there are also instances where they closely follow the interpretations of the European Court of Human Rights and, on occasion, adopt a more
restrictive position. This analysis complicates the view that soft courts are likely to be more progressive interpreters than hard courts. It further shows that variations in the interpretation of non-refoulement in a crowded field of international interpreters present risks for evasion of accountability, whereby domestic authorities in Europe may favor the more convenient interpretation, particularly in environments hostile to non-refoulement
Learning from Law Enforcement
No full textThis paper studies how punishment for past offenses affects future compliance behavior and isolates deterrence effects mediated by learning. Using administrative data from speed cameras that capture the full driving histories of more than a million cars over several years, we evaluate responses to punishment at the extensive (receiving a speeding ticket) and intensive (tickets with higher fines) margins. Two complementary empirical strategies - a regression discontinuity design and an event study - coherently document strong responses to receiving a ticket: the speeding rate drops by a third and re-offense rates fall by 70%. Higher fines produce only a limited additional effect. All responses occur immediately and are persistent over time, with no 'backsliding' towards speeding even two years after receiving a ticket. Our evidence rejects unlearning and temporary salience effects. Instead, it supports a learning model in which agents update their priors on the expected punishment in a 'coarse' manner. Additional results indicate that learning from law enforcement affects drivers' behavior more broadly, including spillovers on non-ticketed drivers
The political conditions for economic reform in Europe’s South
No full textThis chapter aims at anchoring the experience of the Euro area south during the crisis to the vast literature on the political conditions that increase the likelihood of reforms being passed. In doing so, it qualitatively benchmarks 11 government experiences in five countries and explores 11 hypotheses originally formulated by Williamson (1994). While far from identifying clear silver bullets, the chapter can be seen as a handbook for future reform-minded politicians
The United Nations and Civil Society in Times of Change: Four Propositions
No full textThe United Nations and organized civil society in the form of international NGOs have yet to find an optimal mode of engagement that works for both sides. This has many reasons, but foremost it is caused by a formalized and politicized administrative process with, in the end, rather limited participation opportunities for NGOs. The current regime fails to live up to its potential – a deficit that is becoming more acute as both the UN and NGOs face legitimacy pressures and have to brave geopolitical and resource uncertainties. In response, the article proposes a more differentiated cooperation model based on functional roles and new organizational formats. Such an approach could enable a mutually beneficial relationship to emerge between the United Nations system and international civil society
Unemployment and separation: Evidence from five European countries
No full textSince the 1970s, several European countries have experienced high union dissolution risk as well as high unemployment rates. The extent to which adverse economic conditions are associated with union instability is still unknown. This study explores the relationship between both individual and aggregate unemployment and union dissolution risk in five European countries before the recent economic crisis. Using rich longitudinal data from Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, and Italy, the empirical analysis, based on discrete-time event history models, shows that male unemployment consistently increases the risk of union dissolution. While a strong association is observed between male unemployment and separation at the micro level, no association is found between male unemployment and union dissolution at the macro level. The results for female unemployment are mixed, and the size of the impact of female unemployment is smaller in magnitude than that of male unemployment. In Germany and Italy, where until very recently work has been less compatible with family life than in other countries, female unemployment is not significantly associated with union dissolution
Measuring Economic Reform Recommendations under the European Semester: ‘One Size Fits All’ or Tailoring to Member States?
No full textIn 2010 the European Semester was created to better coordinate fiscal and economic policies within Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union. The Semester aims to tackle economic imbalances by giving European Union (EU) member states country-specific recommendations (CSRs) regarding their public budgets as well as their wider economic and social policies with a view to enabling better policy coordination among Euro Area member states. In this article we develop a method to assess the way in which the CSRs have been addressing coordination and offer a systematic analysis of the way they have been formulated. We offer a way to code CSRs as well as one to analyse progress evaluations. Furthermore, we seek to use our results to address one of the reoccurring questions in the literature: whether the EU is pursuing a ‘one size fits all’ approach to economic policy making in the Euro Area? The findings indicate that different types of market economies and welfare states – different ‘varieties of capitalism’ – among the Euro Area members obtain different recommendations regarding different policy areas