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Coping with Crisis: Whither the Variable Geometry in the Jurisprudence of the European Court of Human Rights
No full textThis article offers a new take on the diagnosis of the crisis of the
European human rights system by focusing on the diversification of the
attitudes towards the European Court of Human Rights by national
compliance audiences, namely domestic executives, parliaments, and
judiciaries. This diagnosis holds that national compliance audiences of
the European Court of Human Rights can no longer be characterized as
lending overall support to the human rights acquis of Europe, that centers
around the European Court of Human Rights as the ultimate authoritative
interpreter of the Convention. Instead, alongside states that continue to
lend overall support to the Court’s authority over the interpretation of the
Convention, two new attitudes have developed towards the Convention
across the Council of Europe. First, there are now national compliance
audiences that demand co-sharing of the interpretation task with the
European Court of Human Rights. Second, there are national compliance
audiences that flaunt well-established Convention standards, not merely
by error, or lack of knowledge of adequate application, but with suspect
grounds of intentionality and lack of respect for the overall Convention
acquis. Following this diagnosis, I argue that instead of holding on to a
business as usual attitude, the Court has also developed coping strategies
in order to handle this fragmentation by investing in a human rights
jurisprudence of a variable geometry, recognizing differentiation in the
individual circumstances of states as a basis for human rights review
Forecasting Elections in Multiparty Systems: A Bayesian Approach Combining Polls and Fundamentals
No full textWe offer a dynamic Bayesian forecasting model for multiparty elections. It combines data from published pre-election public opinion polls with information from fundamentals-based forecasting models. The model takes care of the multiparty nature of the setting and allows making statements about the probability of other quantities of interest, such as the probability of a plurality of votes for a party or the majority for certain coalitions in parliament. We present results from two ex ante forecasts of elections that took place in 2017 and are able to show that the model outperforms fundamentals-based forecasting models in terms of accuracy and the calibration of uncertainty. Provided that historical and current polling data are available, the model can be applied to any multiparty setting
Political Advertising on the Wikipedia Marketplace of Information
No full textWe point to a popular yet underresearched platform of political information, the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Considering the supply side of the marketplace, we argue that personal biographies on the platform are an attractive medium for politicians to enhance their appearance. We trace changes to biographies coming from the parliament using data that cover the entire edit histories for biographies on all German members of parliament for the three last legislative periods. Our findings show editing of personal biographies to be a persistent phenomenon. Moreover, type, timing, and driving factors of editing behavior highlight the importance politicians’ attribute to Wikipedia for pursuing reelection. Our results speak to the domains of political professionalization, voting behavior, and the general measurement of communicative patterns
Forecasting elections at the constituency level: A correction–combination procedure
No full textScholarly efforts to forecast parliamentary elections have targeted the national level predominantly, disregarding the outcomes of constituency races. In doing so, they have frequently failed to account for systematic bias in the seats–votes curve, and been unable to provide candidates and campaign strategists with constituency-level information. On the other hand, existing accounts of constituency-level election forecasting suffer from data sparsity, leading to a lack of precision. This paper proposes a correction–combination procedure that allows for the correction of individual constituency-level forecast models for election-invariant bias, then combines these models based on their past performances. I demonstrate the use of this procedure through out-of-sample forecasts of 299 district races at the 2013 German federal election
Eine empirische Schätzmethode für Valenz-Issues auf der Basis der Kandidatenbeurteilung am Beispiel der Konstanzer Oberbürgermeisterwahl 2012
No full textBei der Entwicklung der räumlichen Modelle des Parteienwettbewerbs spielt die Valenz eine wichtige Rolle. Trotz der theoretischen Relevanz bleibt die Mess- und Schätzmethode der Valenz unterentwickelt. Angesichts dieser Forschungslücke schlägt dieser Beitrag ein statistisches Modell vor, das die gleichzeitige Schätzung der Kandidatenpositionen und der Valenz ermöglicht. Ein wichtiger Vorzug dieses Modells liegt darin, dass man nur die Kandidatenbeurteilungen per Skalometer benötigt, der in den meisten Umfragedaten verfügbar ist. Dieses Modell wird auf Daten angewendet, die in Rahmen der Konstanzer Oberbürgermeisterwahl 2012 erhoben wurden
Valuation Beyond the Market: Power, concepts and categories
Full text linkThis thesis takes the core concept of valuation beyond the market and looks at it from three different angles: (1) a field-level study that investigates how domination becomes naturalized and thus, the role of systemic power in determining how practices, beliefs and attitudes become the dominant or valued way of working in an emerging field, (2) a literature review that organizes concepts from valuation studies by approaches to generate non-economic value and raises questions about the relationship between organizations and the value they create, and (3) an organization-level study that investigates how categorization, a valuation process, can be a way to scale social impact and create institutional change.
The first paper is called “Systemic Power in the Field of Impact Investing: Pathways to domination and emerging field ideologies”. It is an equal authored paper with Lisa Hehenberger and Johanna Mair. It is an empirical study of the emerging field of impact investing in Europe. In it, we investigate the power dynamics that mark the trajectory of a field in an emergent stage and identify the process of suppression and three modes by which field ideologies take shape. We ask: How is domination naturalized? How can we surface underlying sets of ideas held by groups of actors in emerging fields of practice in order to study the process of domination? The study traces the emergence of a field ideology that values certain ideals, for example, scaling over local solutions and measuring impact vs. telling stories. We introduce the concept of field ideologies and aim to contribute to organizational theory discussions of domination and institutional theory more broadly.
The second paper is called “The Vocabulary of Valuation: Tools for investigating the changing nature of social purpose organizing”. It structures and relates valuation studies concepts to non-market settings and develops the concept of the born-rational organization and a research agenda for what valuation does to organizations and what valuation can mean for this type of organization. In it, I ask: What areas of future research emerge from an integration of valuation literature with management work on socially- and environmentally-driven organizations? The paper establishes the need for empirical research that investigates valuation topics at social purpose organizations. It aims to contribute to organizational research on non-market value creation and highlights the need to investigate value- or impact- creation strategies.
Lastly, the third paper is called “Categories as Impact Drivers: How a social-purpose organization enables the emergence of a new category as a means to scale and as a mode of institutional change”. It is an empirical study of a national nonprofit organization in the United States and how it seeks to maximize its impact. In it, I ask: How does an organization create a category as an impact driver? The study investigates how a ‘born rational’ organization acts and organizes and ultimately, how it adopts a unique approach to scaling and change through a category. I develop a process model of category creation for impact that involves two interlinked processes: impact reactivity and category impact work. The study aims to contribute to organizational theory discussions of approaches to social challenges, scaling and change. It also calls for attention to categories in non-market strategy
AI for SDG-16 on Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions: Tracking Progress and Assessing Impact
No full textThe transition from the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) brought with it significant changes in the process of creating the goals and with the actual content of the SDGs. One of the most important developments was the inclusion of SDG 16, which recognises the central role of effective, accountable and inclusive political institutions in promoting sustainable development. Yet, a significant shortcoming is the difficulty in measuring progress on this SDG 16. In addition to general issues linked with data availability across the various indicators, a key challenge is aggregating trends across these wide-ranging indicators to track overall progress on SDG 16. A second issue that follows, is that despite claims regarding the centrality of SDG 16 for achieving the other SDGs, little is known about the causal pathways from the different indicators in SDG 16 to the other SDGs and associated indicators. In other words, questions remain over how changes in SDG 16 indicators impact a country’s progress towards indicators linked to health, gender equality, water and sanitation, and climate change
Jugend 2019 - 18. Shell Jugendstudie: Eine Generation meldet sich zu Wort
No full textIm Oktober 2019 erscheint – erstmals in der Verlagsgruppe Beltz – die nächste Shell Jugendstudie. Unter dem Titel »Jugend 2019 – 18. Shell Jugendstudie« zeichnet sie ein aktuelles Porträt der jungen Generation in Deutschland. Das Standardwerk wird vom Autorenteam Prof. Dr. Mathias Albert, Prof. Dr. Klaus Hurrelmann, Prof. Dr. Gudrun Quenzel und Kantar Public, München, verfasst. Seit 1953 zeichnet die Shell Jugendstudie nach, wie junge Menschen in Deutschland ihr Leben und seine Herausforderungen meistern und welche Einstellungen sie dabei bilden. Die neue Studie porträtiert eine Generation, die die Zukunft als Thema für sich entdeckt – Jugendliche sorgen sich nicht etwa nur um ihre individuelle berufliche Entwicklung, sondern um Umweltverschmutzung und Klimawandel. Sie formulieren Ansprüche an Politik und Gesellschaft, wollen mitgestalten und sich Gehör verschaffen