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Pandemic politics: The acceleration of democratic erosion and autocratization in Indonesia during Covid-19
No full textAfter the fall of Suharto in 1998, Indonesia experienced a democratic transition that many observers hailed as a model for other Muslim countries. Twenty years after the reforms, many scholars have noted the erosion of democratization, including the rise of intolerance and conservative majoritarianism, threats to civil liberties, human rights abuses, and the decreasing quality of elections. In this article, we show how the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated these tendencies. Since 2020, the government has finalized at least five controversial legal drafts. This is particularly sobering to promoters of liberal democracy because the government is headed by Joko Widodo, whom many considered the more democratic candidate in comparison with his opponent, former military leader Prabowo Subianto. Not only the content of these bills but also changes to the legislative process potentially threaten Indonesia’s democratic future. The Indonesian government has pushed the bills through despite the massive criticism and rejection of all five bills by NGOs, scholars, human rights activists, and even some politicians. It cited public health and the Covid-19 pandemic as a reason for limiting spaces for political deliberation. We argue that there are at least three levels on which the Covid-19 pandemic act as a catalyst to the democratic decline tendencies in Indonesia: firstly, by executive aggrandizement and weakening of democratic institutions through legislative means; secondly, by curtailing public participation; and, thirdly, by depriving the next generation of the education and social conditions necessary for political engagement.Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.Volkswagen Foundationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001663Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (1034)Peer Reviewe
Wealth and Family Formation: Insights from First Cohabitation, Marriage, and Birth in Germany
No full textExisting research has demonstrated that wealthier individuals differ in family formation. Potential explanations draw on wealth’s use and symbolic value as well as the relative economic bar of family formation. This study examines the relationship between wealth and three family formation events in Germany: first cohabitation, marriage, and birth. Data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (2002–2017) are used with multi-state, competing-risk, discrete-time event history analysis. Results show that wealth, primarily driven by homeownership, significantly influences cohabitation, marriage, and birth. The impact of homeownership is particularly notable for marriage and birth and shows gender-specific associations for cohabitants. The findings highlight the substantial influence of wealth—most likely through its symbolic and use value—in shaping family formation while indicating limited support for a relative economic bar in Germany.Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschafthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (1034)Peer Reviewe
Applications of Panel Data and Machine Learning Algorithms for Data-Driven Decision-Making
No full textMore details about the license of the publication cited in Chapter 1 (Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/)) can be found in the respective DOI. More details about the license of the publication cited in Chapter 2 (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)) can be found in the respective DOI.Diese Dissertation befasst sich mit der empirischen Anwendung von Paneldaten und maschinellen Lernalgorithmen für eine bessere Entscheidungsfindung. Das erste Kapitel verwendet Daten des deutschen Sozio-oekonomischen Panels, um Persönlichkeitsmerkmale und die Hypothese der Trennbarkeit von Alters-, Perioden- und Kohorteneffekten zu untersuchen. Die Ergebnisse einer Reihe von Spezifikationstests liefern empirische Evidenz für die Trennbarkeit dieser Effekte für eine Reihe von Merkmalen. Das zweite Kapitel bewertet die Leistungssteigerungen der neuronalen Netze im Hinblick auf die Vorhersage der Kundenabwanderung. Grundlage der Bewertung sind die anonymisierten Paneldaten eines europäischen Finanzdienstleisters. Die Auswertung der Ergebnisse belegt, dass neuronale Netze effektive Algorithmen zur Klassifikation und Informationsextraktion darstellen. Das dritte Kapitel beginnt mit einem Vergleich der Verzerrung und Varianz von Double-Selection-Schätzern mit Variationen eines dynamischen Panel-Double-Machine-Learning-Modells. Um zu testen, ob die geschätzten Elastizitäten dieses letzten Modells es ermöglichen, preissensitive Produkte zu identifizieren, werden in Zusammenarbeit mit einem großen Online-Einzelhändler zwei Preisexperimente durchgeführt. Das experimentelle Design wurde in zwei Punkten im vierten Kapitel verbessert. Erstens implementiert es eine clusterbasierte Randomisierung, die es uns ermöglicht, die Auswirkungen von Preis-Spillover-Effekten aufgrund von Preissenkungen zu bewerten. Die Ergebnisse der Studie lassen den Schluss zu, dass die Spillover-Effekte nicht groß genug sind, um die Zuwächse beim durchschnittlichen Umsatz durch eine Preissenkung auszugleichen. Zweitens wird die Evaluierung erweitert und es wird gezeigt, dass die Auswirkungen von Preissenkungen für elastische Produkte und Preiserhöhungen für unelastische Produkte auf den Umsatz bei Produkten mit einem größeren Abstand zwischen -1 und den Elastizitätsschätzungen größer sind.This thesis focuses on empirical applications of panel data and machine learning algorithms for better decision-making. The first chapter uses data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to study personality traits and the hypothesis of separability of age, period, and cohort effects. Our results from a battery of specification tests provide evidence for the separability of these effects for a number of traits. The second chapter evaluates the performance gains that deep neural networks bring to customer churn prediction. The empirical evaluation is based on anonymized panel data from a European provider of financial services. The results show that neural nets are effective classifiers and information extractors of time-varying data. The last two chapters focus on estimating and evaluating demand price elasticities based on machine learning algorithms and unbalanced panel data for applications in e-commerce. The third chapter first compares the bias and variance of double selection estimators against variations of a dynamic panel double machine learning model. We then test if the estimated elasticities from the double machine learning model allow us to identify price-sensitive products. Two experiments show that pricing policies based on these estimates lead to average increases in revenue and profit. The fourth chapter documents two new pricing experiments that implement a cluster-based randomization. This allows us to assess the effect of pricing spillovers. We also expand the evaluation to test the economic value of the point estimates to identify elastic and inelastic products. The results show that, when we only consider price reductions, the spillover effects are not large enough to offset the gains in average revenue. The final experiment shows that the effect on revenue of price increases, for inelastic products, and decreases, for elastic products, of ten percent is larger for products with an estimated elasticity value that is far away from -1
a cohort study in Europe
No full textThe article processing charge was funded by the Open Access Publication Fund of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin.Objective: The arthritis burden increases with aging, while blood glucose, lipid profiles and inflammatory markers may affect the development of arthritis. This study aims to determine the associations between blood markers and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and osteoarthritis (OA) for better arthritis management.
Method: Data from the 6th and 9th wave of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) were used. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the associations between blood markers and arthritis. Generalized additive models and restricted cubic splines (RCS) were employed to assess non-linear associations.
Results: This study included a total of 14,276 participants. The incidence was 5.80% for OA, and 13.92% for RA. The participants with new-onset OA and RA were more likely to be older, female, and with higher body mass index. The generalized additive model detected nonlinear associations between the incidence of OA and glycated hemoglobin A (HbA1c), and between the incidence of RA and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and triglycerides (TRG). RCS curves (P-nonlinear 65, HDL levels between 44.99 and 67.42 mg/dL and TRG levels between 265.37 and 1125.06 mg/dL were associated with an increased risks of new-onset RA. Furthermore, total cholesterol, HbA1c, HDL and TRG were associated with the prevalence of arthritis.
Conclusion: Monitoring lipid profiles and HbA1c levels in middle-aged and older adults may help to manage arthritis.Peer Reviewe
Correction: Music listening evokes story-like visual imagery with both idiosyncratic and shared content
No full textCorrection: Music listening evokes story-like visual imagery with both idiosyncratic and shared contentPeer Reviewe
Effects of a mindfulness intervention on emotion differentiation and heart rate variability
No full textThe article processing charge was funded by the Open Access Publication Fund of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin.This study explored the impact of a mindfulness-based intervention (MBI) on mental health and emotion regulation mechanisms, particularly focusing on the top-down and bottom-up related processes, such as emotion differentiation and heart rate variability (HRV). Participants underwent an 8-week mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR) program or a reading-sharing intervention (READ). Emotion differentiation and HRV were measured at various intervals, alongside mental health measurements (depressive and stress symptomatology, wellbeing, mindfulness, and self-compassion traits). The results showed that the MBSR group exhibited increased emotion differentiation for negative emotions and improvements in various mental health measurements (wellbeing and mindfulness traits) compared to the READ group. However, there were no significant differences in HRV between the two groups, and gains in emotion differentiation did not correlate significantly with changes in mental health outcomes. The findings suggest that MBIs can enhance emotion differentiation as a top-down mechanism and improve mental health outcomes. However, further research is needed to understand the precise psychophysiological mechanisms underlying these effects.Peer Reviewe
Strategic use of scientific information for marine conservation: policy narratives on sea-dumped munitions in the German Seas
No full textTo keep pace with the accelerating industrialization of the oceans, marine conservation must address environmental issues where scientific knowledge is limited and evolving. In the German Baltic and North Seas, 1.6 million tons of munitions, dumped after World War II, pose risks to the environment, public health, and economic development. These munitions were not recognized as an environmental problem until 2021, when systematic clearance efforts were initiated. Using the Narrative Policy Framework (NPF), this article examines how advocates for munitions clearance used narratives to argue for policy change despite limited scientific information. Analyzing 138 newspaper articles from 2001 to 2021, we show how scientific information functioned alongside other narrative elements. In stories of decline, which depict worsening problems, munitions were portrayed as villains, while metaphors such as the ticking time bomb heightened urgency and supported expressions of scientific certainty. Contrary to previous NPF research suggesting that actors use certainty to support policy stability and uncertainty to drive policy change, we find that both strategies were used by advocates of policy change. Our research illustrates how growing scientific information changes narrative strategies. In the first period, precautionary principle plots, which stress that the possible consequences of inaction justify action without scientific consensus, enabled calls for marine conservation despite uncertainty. In the second period, growing scientific information allowed pro-clearance advocates to emphasize certainty in stories of decline. Together with stories of control, which demonstrate that an issue can be managed, pro-clearance advocates fostered confidence in the necessity and feasibility of munitions clearance.Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschunghttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (1034)Peer Reviewe
F0 Adaptation and Bodily Processes: An Exploration
No full textDiese Arbeit untersucht die Beziehung zwischen Körper und Sprache in sozialen Interaktionen. Traditionell wurde Sprache in ihrer Produktion und ihrer Rezeption isoliert betrachtet. Inzwischen richtet sich das Augenmerk zunehmend auf den Gebrauch von Sprache in der Interaktion — als ihrem zentralen Einsatzbereich. Der Einfluss des Körpers auf die Sprache in einer Interaktion wurde bisher jedoch kaum untersucht. Physiologische Prozesse sind nicht nur mit Sprache verbunden (z. B. Atmung, Motorik), sondern auch mit sozialen und emotionalen Prozessen. In dieser Arbeit werden Zusammenhänge zwischen Sprachadaptation (insbesondere Grundfrequenz „F0“) und drei körperlichen Aspekten untersucht: Atmung, Blickverhalten und Temperaturveränderung. Es wurden drei Experimente durchgeführt, die mit unterschiedlichen methodischen Ansätzen jeweils einen dieser Prozesse betrachteten: (a) Atmung und F0-Anpassung in einer Pseudointeraktion mit einer zuvor aufgenommenen Gesprächspartnerin; (b) der Einfluss des Blicks eines Roboters auf die sprachliche Anpassung von Menschen in spontaner Sprache; und (c) Temperaturveränderungen und F0-Modulation in einem Gespräch zwischen Fremden. In den letzten beiden Studien wurde auch der Einfluss des Gesprächsthemas auf F0 untersucht. Alle Studien zeigten große interindividuelle Unterschiede in Sprache und Physiologie. Die F0 variierte mit der Intimität des Gesprächs. Obwohl einige physiologische Effekte mit sozialen und emotionalen Faktoren korrelierten, zeigten sich nur begrenzt direkte Verbindungen zu Sprachprozessen. Weder Atmung noch Roboterblick oder Temperatur beeinflussten die F0-Anpassung direkt. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass Physiologie primär der Homöostase dient und soziale, emotionale und sprachliche Einflüsse nur sekundär sind. Die Studien liefern methodische Impulse für zukünftige Forschungen zur Rolle des Körpers in sozialen Interaktionen.This thesis explores the relationship between the body and speech in social interactions. Traditionally, language has been studied through isolated production and comprehension. Recently, studies have increasingly focused on language use in social interaction—its fundamental locus of occurrence. Still, few studies have addressed how the body is implicated in language in interaction. Physiology is not only related to language use (e.g., breathing and motor control), but also to social and emotional processes. This thesis explores some relationships between speech adaptation (specifically, fundamental frequency; f0) and three bodily aspects: respiration, eye gaze, and temperature change. Three experiments are reported, each focusing on one bodily process and using a different methodological paradigm. We investigated (a) breathing and f0 adaptation in a pseudo-interaction with a confederate pre-recorded on video; (b) the influence of a robot's gaze on humans' entrainment during spontaneous speech; and (c) thermal change and f0 modulation in a conversational task between strangers. The last two studies also explored the conversation topic's influence on f0. All studies observed large interindividual variability in both speech and physiological responses. F0 was modulated as a function of the conversation's intimacy level. Some physiological effects emerged in relation to social and emotional factors, but there was limited support for a direct relationship between speech and these bodily processes. Respiration did not mediate f0 adaptation; the robot's gaze did not influence the humans' entrainment; and thermal changes were not directly related to f0 modulation. These findings reflect the fact that physiology's main function is homeostasis and that it is only secondarily sensitive to social, emotional, and linguistic processes. These studies can methodologically inform future work and contribute to the growing literature investigating the body in social interaction