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Combining randomized and non-randomized data to predict heterogeneous effects of competing treatments.
Get PDFSome patients benefit from a treatment while others may do so less or do not benefit at all. We have previously developed a two-stage network meta-regression prediction model that synthesized randomized trials and evaluates how treatment effects vary across patient characteristics. In this article, we extended this model to combine different sources of types in different formats: aggregate data (AD) and individual participant data (IPD) from randomized and non-randomized evidence. In the first stage, a prognostic model is developed to predict the baseline risk of the outcome using a large cohort study. In the second stage, we recalibrated this prognostic model to improve our predictions for patients enrolled in randomized trials. In the third stage, we used the baseline risk as effect modifier in a network meta-regression model combining AD, IPD randomized clinical trial to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects. We illustrated the approach in the re-analysis of a network of studies comparing three drugs for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Several patient characteristics influence the baseline risk of relapse, which in turn modifies the effect of the drugs. The proposed model makes personalized predictions for health outcomes under several treatment options and encompasses all relevant randomized and non-randomized evidence
Even cooler insights: On the power of forests to (water the Earth and) cool the planet.
Get PDFScientific innovation is overturning conventional paradigms of forest, water, and energy cycle interactions. This has implications for our understanding of the principal causal pathways by which tree, forest, and vegetation cover (TFVC) influence local and global warming/cooling. Many identify surface albedo and carbon sequestration as the principal causal pathways by which TFVC affects global warming/cooling. Moving toward the outer latitudes, in particular, where snow cover is more important, surface albedo effects are perceived to overpower carbon sequestration. By raising surface albedo, deforestation is thus predicted to lead to surface cooling, while increasing forest cover is assumed to result in warming. Observational data, however, generally support the opposite conclusion, suggesting surface albedo is poorly understood. Most accept that surface temperatures are influenced by the interplay of surface albedo, incoming shortwave (SW) radiation, and the partitioning of the remaining, post-albedo, SW radiation into latent and sensible heat. However, the extent to which the avoidance of sensible heat formation is first and foremost mediated by the presence (absence) of water and TFVC is not well understood. TFVC both mediates the availability of water on the land surface and drives the potential for latent heat production (evapotranspiration, ET). While latent heat is more directly linked to local than global cooling/warming, it is driven by photosynthesis and carbon sequestration and powers additional cloud formation and top-of-cloud reflectivity, both of which drive global cooling. TFVC loss reduces water storage, precipitation recycling, and downwind rainfall potential, thus driving the reduction of both ET (latent heat) and cloud formation. By reducing latent heat, cloud formation, and precipitation, deforestation thus powers warming (sensible heat formation), which further diminishes TFVC growth (carbon sequestration). Large-scale tree and forest restoration could, therefore, contribute significantly to both global and surface temperature cooling through the principal causal pathways of carbon sequestration and cloud formation
Exposure to Brucella Species, Coxiella burnetii, and Trichinella Species in Recently Imported Camels from Sudan to Egypt: Possible Threats to Animal and Human Health.
Get PDFBrucellosis and coxiellosis/Q fever are bacterial infections caused by Brucella species and Coxiella burnetii, respectively; camels are highly susceptible to both pathogens. Trichinellosis is a parasitic infection caused by various Trichinella nematode species. Reportedly, camels are susceptible to experimental infection with Trichinella spp., but information on this potential host species is scarce. All three infections are of zoonotic nature and thus of great public health concern. The current study aimed to determine antibodies against the three pathogens in recently imported camels (n = 491) from Sudan at the two main ports for the entrance of camels into southern Egypt using commercial indirect ELISAs. Samples were collected in two sampling periods. The seropositivity rates of Brucella spp., C. burnetii, and Trichinella spp. were 3.5%, 4.3%, and 2.4%, respectively. Mixed seropositivity was found in 1% for Brucella spp. and C. burnetii. Marked differences were found between the two study sites and the two sampling periods for Brucella. A higher rate of seropositivity was recorded in the Red Sea/older samples that were collected between 2015 and 2016 (4.3%, 17/391; odds ratio = 9.4; p < 0.030) than in those collected in Aswan/recent samples that were collected between 2018 and 2021 (0/100). Concerning C. burnetii, samples collected during November and December 2015 had a significantly higher positivity rate than the other samples (13%, 13/100; OD = 4.8; p < 0.016). The same effect was observed for antibodies to Trichinella spp., with samples collected during November and December 2015 showing a higher positivity rate than the other samples (7%, 7/100; OD = 10.9; p < 0.001). This study provides valuable information on the seroprevalence of Brucella spp. and additional novel information on C. burnetii and Trichinella spp. in recently imported camels kept in quarantine before delivery to other Egyptian regions. This knowledge can be utilized to reduce health hazards and financial burdens attributable to brucellosis, Q fever, and trichinellosis in animals and humans in Egypt
Bone morphogenic protein-4 availability in the cardiac microenvironment controls inflammation and fibrosis in autoimmune myocarditis
Get PDFMyocarditis is an inflammatory heart disease that leads to loss of cardiomyocytes and frequently precipitates fibrotic remodeling of the myocardium, culminating in heart failure. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying immune cell control and maintenance of tissue integrity in the inflamed cardiac microenvironment remain elusive. In this study, we found that bone morphogenic protein-4 (BMP4) gradients maintain cardiac tissue homeostasis by single-cell transcriptomics analyses of inflamed murine and human myocardial tissues. Cardiac BMP pathway dysregulation was reflected by reduced BMP4 serum concentration in patients with myocarditis. Restoration of BMP signaling by antibody-mediated neutralization of the BMP inhibitors gremlin-1 and gremlin-2 ameliorated T cell-induced myocardial inflammation in mice. Moreover, progression to inflammatory cardiomyopathy was blocked through the reduction of fibrotic remodeling and preservation of cardiomyocyte integrity. These results unveil the BMP4–gremlin axis as a druggable pathway for the treatment of myocardial inflammation, limiting the severe sequelae of cardiac fibrosis and heart failure
Fast light-field 3D microscopy with out-of-distribution detection and adaptation through conditional normalizing flows.
Get PDFReal-time 3D fluorescence microscopy is crucial for the spatiotemporal analysis of live organisms, such as neural activity monitoring. The eXtended field-of-view light field microscope (XLFM), also known as Fourier light field microscope, is a straightforward, single snapshot solution to achieve this. The XLFM acquires spatial-angular information in a single camera exposure. In a subsequent step, a 3D volume can be algorithmically reconstructed, making it exceptionally well-suited for real-time 3D acquisition and potential analysis. Unfortunately, traditional reconstruction methods (like deconvolution) require lengthy processing times (0.0220 Hz), hampering the speed advantages of the XLFM. Neural network architectures can overcome the speed constraints but do not automatically provide a way to certify the realism of their reconstructions, which is essential in the biomedical realm. To address these shortcomings, this work proposes a novel architecture to perform fast 3D reconstructions of live immobilized zebrafish neural activity based on a conditional normalizing flow. It reconstructs volumes at 8 Hz spanning 512x512x96 voxels, and it can be trained in under two hours due to the small dataset requirements (50 image-volume pairs). Furthermore, normalizing flows provides a way to compute the exact likelihood of a sample. This allows us to certify whether the predicted output is in- or ood, and retrain the system when a novel sample is detected. We evaluate the proposed method on a cross-validation approach involving multiple in-distribution samples (genetically identical zebrafish) and various out-of-distribution ones
Side chain engineering in indacenodithiophene-co-benzothiadiazole and its impact on mixed ionic–electronic transport properties
Get PDFOrganic semiconductors are increasingly being decorated with hydrophilic solubilising chains to create materials that can function as mixed ionic–electronic conductors, which are promising candidates for interfacing biological systems with organic electronics. While numerous organic semiconductors, including p- and n-type materials, small molecules and polymers, have been successfully tailored to encompass mixed conduction properties, common to all these systems is that they have been semicrystalline materials. Here, we explore how side chain engineering in the nano-crystalline indacenodithiophene-co-benzothiadiazole (IDTBT) polymer can be used to instil ionic transport properties and how this in turn influences the electronic transport properties. This allows us to ultimately assess the mixed ionic–electronic transport properties of these new IDTBT polymers using the organic electrochemical transistor as the testing platform. Using a complementary experimental and computational approach, we find that polar IDTBT derivatives can be infiltrated by water and solvated ions, they can be electrochemically doped efficiently in aqueous electrolyte with fast doping kinetics, and upon aqueous swelling there is no deterioration of the close interchain contacts that are vital for efficient charge transport in the IDTBT system. Despite these promising attributes, mixed ionic–electronic charge transport properties are surprisingly poor in all the polar IDTBT derivatives. Albeit a ‘‘negative’’ result, this finding clearly contradicts established side chain engineering rules for mixed ionic–electronic conductors, which motivated our continued investigation of this system. We eventually find this anomalous behaviour to be caused by increasing energetic disorder in the polymers with increasing polar side chain content. We have investigated computationally how the polar side chain motifs contribute to this detrimental energetic inhomogeneity and ultimately use the learnings to propose new molecular design criteria for side chains that can facilitate ion transport without impeding electronic transport
Texterfassung und Feinauszeichnung im Brief-Corpus der Gotthelf-Edition – Input-Referat im Rahmen des Workshops "Texterfassung" mit Patricia Zihlmann und Hanne Griessmann
No full textImpact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels.
Get PDFOlder adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population
Development of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis is associated with gut microbiota but not with oxysterol enzymes CH25H, EBI2, or CYP7B1 in mice.
Get PDFLiver steatosis is the most frequent liver disorder and its advanced stage, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), will soon become the main reason for liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. The "multiple hits hypothesis" suggests that progression from simple steatosis to NASH is triggered by multiple factors including the gut microbiota composition. The Epstein Barr virus induced gene 2 (EBI2) is a receptor for the oxysterol 7a, 25-dihydroxycholesterol synthesized by the enzymes CH25H and CYP7B1. EBI2 and its ligand control activation of immune cells in secondary lymphoid organs and the gut. Here we show a concurrent study of the microbial dysregulation and perturbation of the EBI2 axis in a mice model of NASH.We used mice with wildtype, or littermates with CH25H-/-, EBI2-/-, or CYP7B1-/- genotypes fed with a high-fat diet (HFD) containing high amounts of fat, cholesterol, and fructose for 20 weeks to induce liver steatosis and NASH. Fecal and small intestinal microbiota samples were collected, and microbiota signatures were compared according to genotype and NASH disease state.We found pronounced differences in microbiota composition of mice with HFD developing NASH compared to mice did not developing NASH. In mice with NASH, we identified significantly increased 33 taxa mainly belonging to the Clostridiales order and/ or the family, and significantly decreased 17 taxa. Using an Elastic Net algorithm, we suggest a microbiota signature that predicts NASH in animals with a HFD from the microbiota composition with moderate accuracy (area under the receiver operator characteristics curve = 0.64). In contrast, no microbiota differences regarding the studied genotypes (wildtype vs knock-out CH25H-/-, EBI2-/-, or CYP7B1-/-) were observed.In conclusion, our data confirm previous studies identifying the intestinal microbiota composition as a relevant marker for NASH pathogenesis. Further, no link of the EBI2 - oxysterol axis to the intestinal microbiota was detectable in the current study
Living on the edge—Genomic and ecological delineation of cryptic lineages in the high‐elevation specialist Erebia nivalis
Get PDFCold-adapted species at high elevations may be especially impacted by global warming since they may be limited in their capacity to adapt to changing conditions or may be prevented from shifting their distributions upwards if no suitable habitats are available.
The latter may be true for Erebia nivalis, a high-elevation specialist that mainly occurs in the Austrian Alps and on few mountaintops in Switzerland, where its taxonomic and conservation status remains unclear.
We aimed to clarify the relationships among geographically isolated populations of E. nivalis using whole-genome resequencing data to reconstruct population connectivity and phylogenetic relationships. We inferred current and historical effective population sizes and combined these with tests for ecological differentiation based on available occurrence data to re-evaluate the conservation status of E. nivalis.
Our results confirm that Swiss and Austrian E. nivalis should be considered different evolutionarily significant units for conservation purposes, as they are marked by moderate genomic differentiation, distinct demographic histories and a difference in the abiotic conditions of their habitats.
In both Austria and Switzerland, we found rapid uphill range shifts over the last decades, little population connectivity, low current effective population sizes and low genetic diversity. The above, combined with the low dispersal capacity of this 2-year lifecycle species and its need to overwinter under snow, which is rapidly retreating from several regions of the Alps, leads us to suggest that the status of E. nivalis should be updated to ‘Vulnerable’ or ‘Endangered’ in the European, Swiss and Austrian Red Lists
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