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Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection‐Permitting Model Ensemble
Get PDFTaking advantage of a large ensemble of Convection Permitting-Regional Climate Models on a pan-Alpine domain and of an object-oriented dedicated analysis, this study aims to investigate future changes in high-impact fall Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events at high warming levels. We identify a robust multi-model agreement for an increased frequency from central Italy to the northern Balkans combined with a substantial extension of the affected areas, for a dominant influence of the driving Global Climate Models for projecting changes in the frequency, and for an increase in intensity, area, volume and severity over the French Mediterranean. However, large quantitative uncertainties persist despite the use of convection-permitting models, with no clear agreement in frequency changes over southeastern France and a large range of plausible changes in events' properties, including for the most intense events. Model diversity and international coordination are still needed to provide policy-relevant climate information regarding precipitation extremes
Convection-permitting climate models offer more certain extreme rainfall projections
Get PDFExtreme precipitation events lead to dramatic impacts on society and the situation will worsen under climate change. Decision-makers need reliable estimates of future changes as a basis for effective adaptation strategies, but projections at local scale from regional climate models (RCMs) are highly uncertain. Here we exploit the km-scale convection-permitting multi-model (CPM) ensemble, generated within the FPS Convection project, to provide new understanding of the changes in local precipitation extremes and related uncertainties over the greater Alpine region. The CPM ensemble shows a stronger increase in the fractional contribution from extreme events than the driving RCM ensemble during the summer, when convection dominates. We find that the CPM ensemble substantially reduces the model uncertainties and their contribution to the total uncertainties by more than 50%. We conclude that the more realistic representation of local dynamical processes in the CPMs provides more reliable local estimates of change, which are essential for policymakers to plan adaptation measures
KILLER ACQUISITIONS AND BEYOND: POLICY EFFECTS ON INNOVATION STRATEGIES
Get PDFThis article provides a theory of strategic innovation project choice by incumbents and start-ups which serves as a foundation for the analysis of acquisition policy. We show that, in spite of countervailing incentives on incumbents and entrants, prohibiting acquisitions has a weakly negative overall innovation effect. We provide conditions determining the size of the effect and conditions under which it is zero. We further analyze the effects of less restrictive policies, including merger remedies and the tax treatment of acquisitions and initial public offerings. Such interventions tend to prevent acquisitions only if the entrant has sufficiently high stand-alone profits
Walking the path of sanctification together – approaching the sacramental basis of communion through negative work
No full textStrategies for promoting ‘exceptional dead bodies’: two cases across the 18th- and 19th-centuries Italy.
No full textActive and Passive Mineralization of Bio-Gide® Membranes in Rat Calvaria Defects.
Get PDFBio-Gide® is a collagen membrane routinely used in guided bone regeneration. Recent studies have shown that this collagen membrane has osteoconductive properties, meaning that it can support the growth of new bone. However, it has also been observed that the collagen membrane has areas of mineralized fibers which can occur spontaneously and independently of osteoblasts. To better understand how this works, we established a model using minced collagen membranes to reduce the active mineralization of intact collagen membranes in favor of passive mineralization. We thus compared the original intact membrane with a minced collagen membrane in a 5 mm calvarial defect model in Sprague Dawley rats. After three weeks of healing, histology and microcomputed tomography (μCT) were performed. Histological analysis confirmed the osteoconductive properties, with new bone growing inside the intact collagen membrane. However, in minced collagen membranes, the osteoconductive properties were restricted to the defect margins. Interestingly, histology revealed large mineralized areas indicating passive mineralization with no signs of bone formation. In the μCT analysis, the intact collagen membranes caused a higher median mineralized volume (1.5 mm3) compared with the minced group (0.4 mm3), but this lacked significance (p = 0.09). The μCT analysis needs to be interpreted carefully, particularly in defects filled with minced membranes, considering that the mineralized tissue may not necessarily be bone but also the result of passive mineralization. Taken together, the findings suggest that Bio-Gide® collagen membranes support bone formation while also exhibiting potential for passive mineralization
Responsivität
Get PDFResponsivität, die Berücksichtigung von individuellen Voraussetzungen bei Patient:innen durch die Therapeut:innen, ist in der Diskussion um optimale Psychotherapieangebote ein hochaktuelles Thema. Alle Therapieansätze bemühen sich darum, wobei sich Definition und Praxis recht stark unterscheiden. Dazu wird ein Überblick gegeben, und der eigene Ansatz der Motivorientierten Beziehungsgestaltung („motive-oriented therapeutic relationship“, MOTR) wird, einschließlich eines praxisnahen Forschungsansatzes, exemplarisch ausführlicher dargestellt. Kurze Fallbeispiele sind zur Illustration eingefügt. Am Schluss steht ein Resümee mit Hinweisen auf Konsequenzen für die Praxis
Validation of a fall rate prediction model for community-dwelling older adults: a combined analysis of three cohorts with 1850 participants.
Get PDFBACKGROUND
Fragility fractures in older adults are often caused by fall events. The estimation of an expected fall rate might improve the identification of individuals at risk of fragility fractures and improve fracture prediction.
METHODS
A combined analysis of three previously developed fall rate models using individual participant data (n = 1850) was conducted using the methodology of a two-stage meta-analysis to derive an overall model. These previously developed models included the fall history as a predictor recorded as the number of experienced falls within 12 months, treated as a factor variable with the levels 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and ≥ 5 falls. In the first stage, negative binomial regression models for every cohort were fit. In the second stage, the coefficients were compared and used to derive overall coefficients with a random effect meta-analysis. Additionally, external validation was performed by applying the three data sets to the models derived in the first stage.
RESULTS
The coefficient estimates for the prior number of falls were consistent among the three studies. Higgin's I2 as heterogeneity measure ranged from 0 to 55.39%. The overall coefficient estimates indicated that the expected fall rate increases with an increasing number of previous falls. External model validation revealed that the prediction errors for the data sets were independent of the model to which they were applied.
CONCLUSION
This analysis suggests that the fall history treated as a factor variable is a robust predictor of estimating future falls among different cohorts
Konservativ, feministisch, schuldig? Genderkonzepte in zwei Gedichten von Marie Luise Kaschnitz
No full textMarie Luise Kaschnitz’ ambivalente Haltung zu Genderkonventionen und -rollen wird in zwei Gedichten untersucht. Das Gedicht Grabstele (1936) zeigt ein stereotypisierendes Genderdenken, das sich auf Oberflächlichkeiten beschränkt. Kaschnitz hat das Gedicht später selbst kritisiert und sich Gedanken über ihre eigene Haltung gemacht. Trotzdem ist Grabstele in einer Lesart subversiv, weil die Sprechinstanz zwar von Kaschnitz als weiblich imaginiert wird, im Text aber nicht so festgelegt ist. Frauenfunk (1972), das zweite Gedicht, appelliert hingegen explizit an Subversion und Ungehorsam der Frauen und ist durch den Feminismus geprägt. Beiden Gedichten ist ein essentialistisches Genderkonzept mit bürgerlichen Genderrollen gemeinsam, das sich durch Kaschnitz’ Werk zieht
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