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Why International Energy Agency projections should not be misinterpreted as forecasts
No full textThe International Energy Agency’s annual energy projections, the World Energy Outlook (WEO), are a leading source for medium to long-term energy market modelling, which are widely used as an authoritative source by politicians, industry and the media. However, the scenarios within these projections are regularly misunderstood and misused, both accidentally and deliberately.
Under the Paris Agreement, Australia and a host of other countries, have committed to limit global warming to well below 2°C and pursue limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
It is therefore important, in Australia’s fraught climate and energy debate, to understand the limits of the IEA projections, and the implications of each scenario within them, for global warming and what this means for Australia’s national interest.
This factsheet explores:
IEA scenarios and what they represent
Misuse of IEA scenarios
IEA underestimating renewables
Implications for Australia’s national interes
The triumph of the market or the doom of history? What is the future for regional towns?
No full textFunctionally, regional towns cannot be the city states of history. By necessity, whilst regional towns exist as a centre for the catchment area that sustains it, they are nonetheless subject to and rely upon the patronage of the ‘centre’ that the town ‘relates’ to. In return for this patronage regional towns are bound by the laws made at the centre. These laws have the capacity to both help and hinder the economic development of a regional town. Viewed through the prism of power, regional towns are necessarily in an inferior relationship to the centre upon which they depend. The life force of the town can be drained by both deliberate and inadvertent decisions made at the centre. This suggests that for regional towns to prosper they must develop an effective relationship with the centre. The corollary is that a dysfunctional relationship will lead to a town being blighted. An aspect of dysfunctionality is the potential impact of planning laws made at the centre which inhibit the flow of capital into a regional town. Is it time to question the effectiveness of the bureaucratic planning model? Regional towns need a people, a place and an economy. Without all three the town will not survive. The task of Planning Laws should be to promote participation in the economy of the town. Participation does not mean facilitating noisy public meetings to denounce development. Participation means having some skin in the game. Without participation of that sort there can be no progress for the town. Instead, senescence, decay and history will be their doom. To succeed in this challenging environment regional towns may need a different type of support from the centre. Maybe regional towns don’t need planning laws at all? Now that is the sort of radical idea that could lead to a revolution
State of solar 2016: globally and in Australia
No full textKEY FINDINGS
1. Globally, solar photovoltaic (PV) power is surging on the back of scaled-up production and continually falling costs.
70GW (projected) of new solar power capacity was added globally in 2016, breaking last years’ (2015) record of 50GW capacity added.
China (34.2GW), the United States (13GW) and Japan (10.5GW) continued to lead with the most solar PV capacity added.
The solar sector employs 2.8 million people globally, outnumbering coal jobs. In the United States, solar now provides twice as many jobs as coal.
2. Solar costs are now so low that large, industrial-scale solar plants are providing cheaper power than new fossil and nuclear power.
Solar costs have dropped 58% in five years and are expected to continue to fall by a further 40-70% by 2040.
Electricity prices from new coal power stations could rise to A110 per megawatt hour and are expected to come down significantly in price over time.
3. Australia remains a world leader in household solar
The cost of solar power is now well below the retail power prices in Australian capital cities, and continues to fall. The exception is the ACT which has the lowest retail prices in Australia.
Australia adds more solar power every year than the combined capacity of South Australia’s (recently closed) Northern and Playford coal-fired power stations.
Over 8000 Australians are now employed in solar and solar has the potential to create thousands more jobs as it grows.
4. 2017 will be a huge year for large-scale solar in Australia.
Larger solar PV installations are already taking off in Australia – on airports, mines, healthcare facilities and businesses.
In 2017 over 20 new large-scale solar projects will come online. A further 3,700 MW of large-scale solar is in the development pipeline (roughly equivalent to three coal fire power stations).
Australia is expected to reach over 20GW of solar PV in the next 20 years, equivalent to about a third of Australia’s current total power generation capacity.
5. A range of energy storage technologies will complement the growth of solar power providing secure, flexible power.
Solar and battery storage for households and businesses is already gaining traction in Australia – with more than 6,500 households installing the technology. Uptake is expected to triple in 2017.
Large-scale developments such the Lakeland solar and battery storage project and the Kidston solar and pumped hydro project (both in North Queensland) are demonstrating the potential of combining large-scale solar and energy storage technologies.
The Victorian Government is seeking expressions of interest to build a large scale battery storage facility in western Victoria to improve grid stability
The future of the Jakarta Centre for Law Enforcement Cooperation: Indonesia’s chance to promote a new era of regional law enforcement cooperation
No full textOverview
For thirteen years, the Jakarta Centre for Law Enforcement Cooperation (JCLEC) has served as a regional rallying point for much-needed counterterrorism capacity development and cooperation.
Since its inception in 2004, with strong bilateral support from the Australian Government, JCLEC’s operating and donor environments have evolved considerably. The strong relationship between the Indonesian National Police (POLRI) and Australian Federal Police (AFP) that has raised and sustained JCLEC is in a state of decline. Regional partners and donors are now considering JCLEC’s future.
There are some big decisions to be made, the most pressing of which is whether JCLEC should become a truly regional body or an Indonesian Government institution
Report card on state finances
No full textOverview
The Commonwealth government’s perilous financial position is well known, but the finances of state government also warrant our attention. In aggregate, since plunging heavily into deficit after 2007, the states’ fiscal position has improved markedly in recent years, marked by a return to net operating surpluses, much reduced fiscal deficits, and stabilization of net debt. Growth of operating expenses has been held below revenue growth. However, the aggregates mask major differences among the states. New South Wales was clearly in the strongest fiscal position in 2016, while Western Australia exhibited a sharp deterioration in several years leading up to 2016 and now suffers one of the weakest fiscal positions of all the states. The trend in other states was generally one of improvement in the three years to 2016, but South Australia, Queensland and Tasmania continue to exhibit weaknesses that set them apart from the stronger positions of New South Wales and Victoria. No state is in a position to be complacent and all of them need to keep a tight rein on operating expenses. Even New South Wales, as the strongest state, is vulnerable to an unexpected decline in property-related tax revenue and to risks associated with implementation of the state’s large infrastructure program
Australian Taxation Office's implementation of recommendations
No full textThe operations and performance of the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) are subject to external scrutiny from parliamentary committees and the Australian National Audit Office (ANAO). Recommendations made by parliamentary committees and performance audits identify risks to the successful delivery of outcomes. The implementation of recommendations agreed to by the ATO will provide the most benefit when the actions taken are timely and adequately address the recommendation.
The ATO’s purpose is to contribute to the economic and social wellbeing of Australians by fostering willing participation in the tax and superannuation systems. In 2015–16, with approximately 20 700 staff and an operating expense budget of 3.44 billion, the ATO collected 342.6 billion in net tax. From 2011–12 to 2014–15, the ANAO made 39 performance audit recommendations to the ATO and parliamentary committees made 37 recommendations.
The audit objective was to examine the effectiveness of the ATO’s monitoring and implementation of recommendations about its administration made by the ANAO and parliamentary committees. To form a conclusion against the audit objective, the ANAO adopted the following high-level criteria:
the ATO’s implementation of ANAO and parliamentary committee recommendations has been adequate and timely; and
the ATO has effectively reviewed, monitored and reported on the implementation of ANAO and parliamentary committee recommendations
Growing and Developing Healthy Relationships (GDHR) impact evaluation: final report
No full textAn independent Impact Evaluation of the Growing and Developing Healthy Relationships (GDHR) website (www.gdhr.wa.gov.au) was undertaken by John Scougall Consulting Services in 2016 with the support of an expert cross-agency reference group.
The impact evaluation had two objectives: to assess how well the GDHR online curriculum resource is working; and to identify how it might be strengthened.
Four key areas of interest to the evaluation were identified and are summarised in the Executive Summary:
Stakeholder perceptions of the resource;
How GDHR adds value to RSE;
Possible ways of improving the resource; and
Aspirations for the future of the resource.
Multiple information sources and methodologies were used to inform the study to collect data and reach the findings; a literature review of best practice, a desktop analysis of relevant documents and reports, an on-line survey of teachers, qualitative interviews with website users, a program logic workshop and two case studies.
The final Impact Evaluation Report and other related documents are made available to read online; and an Implementation Plan is being prepared outlining how and when the recommendations listed below will be acted upon.
The eleven recommendations made are:
Make a Clear Statement of GDHR Purpose
Better Measure Usage of the GDHR Resource by Target Users
Extend Quality Control Processes
Enhance the Website
Marketing and Promotion
Professional Development
Governance
Partnership
Position GDHR in a Broader Policy Context
Extend the Portal
Promote Good Practice RS
Nothing to fear but fear itself
Get PDFThere is a spectre haunting Europe: a culture and politics of fear, which asserts its growing influence in myriad ways. Most visibly, in the rise of far-right populist movements, the collapse of the social contract between citizens and political institutions, and in the proliferation of authoritarian and exclusionary rhetoric.
This pan-European project has sought to capture a snapshot of the ways in which fear is manifesting in the social and political climate of six different member states: the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain, Poland and Sweden.
Demos partnered with organisations in each of these countries to undertake research on the ground, offering of-the-moment insights into trends both common across the region, and also distinct to member states and their specific historical and political circumstances.
From this, Demos sets out a series of principles of leadership and governance to respond to this new age of anxiety – restoring strength and openness to Europe’s democracies
The funding and delivery of programs to reduce homelessness: the case study evidence
No full textThis report forms part of an AHURI Inquiry into the funding and delivery of programs to reduce homelessness. It provides evidence from case studies of homelessness services into how services supporting those experiencing homelessness are funded, and how different forms and levels of funding impact on the delivery of homelessness assistance. This evidence is based on nine case studies focused on different service models, organisational forms and potential new ways of funding services for the homeless.
Sources of non-government funding outside of the Specialist Homelessness Services budget are unlikely to provide a significant contribution to reducing homelessness in the foreseeable future: the funds raised are relatively small; they are used to supplement/complement mainstream services; raising funds requires the allocation of resources, particular skills, intensive time and energy.
Philanthropic grants are used by homelessness agencies for new initiatives and innovation but are not available to recurrently fund service provision.
Fund raising from the community has preconditions such as strong brand recognition, location, and target groups that appeal to funders. Some homelessness agencies such as faith-based Non-Government Organisations (NGOs) or agencies working with particular target groups or providing services such as foodbanks or material aid have more opportunities than others.
There is some evidence of social enterprise development but usually for ancillary activities and services such as revenue raising in an associated area of expertise and, employment services for those who are experiencing homelessness. This sector would benefit from capital start-up funding from government.
Social impact bonds are a growing area, but for much wider application this will require a more sophisticated and rigorous approach to outcomes measurement.
Partnership arrangements are an important alternative where agencies do not have the funds or expertise to deliver an integrated suite of homelessness services.
The following policy implications emerged from the case studies:
early intervention and post-intervention strategies are necessary to reduce homelessness and thus reduce the upward pressure on the homelessness budget integrated cross-sectoral and cross-departmental funding packages could achieve greater efficiencies than current arrangements
co-funding of time-limited special projects and innovation by government with the philanthropic secto
Cause of death and potentially avoidable deaths in Australian adults with intellectual disability using retrospective linked data
No full textObjectives To investigate mortality and its causes in adults over the age of 20 years with intellectual disability (ID).
Design, setting and participants Retrospective population-based standardised mortality of the ID and Comparison cohorts. The ID cohort comprised 42 204 individuals who registered for disability services with ID as a primary or secondary diagnosis from 2005 to 2011 in New South Wales (NSW). The Comparison cohort was obtained from published deaths in NSW from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) from 2005 to 2011.
Main outcome measures We measured and compared Age Standardised Mortality Rate (ASMR), Comparative Mortality Figure (CMF), years of productive life lost (YPLL) and proportion of deaths with potentially avoidable causes in an ID cohort with an NSW general population cohort.
Results There were 19 362 adults in the ID cohort which experienced 732 (4%) deaths at a median age of 54 years. Age Standardised Mortality Rates increased with age for both cohorts. Overall comparative mortality figure was 1.3, but was substantially higher for the 20–44 (4.0) and 45–64 (2.3) age groups. YPLL was 137/1000 people in the ID cohort and 49 in the comparison cohort. Cause of death in ID cohort was dominated by respiratory, circulatory, neoplasm and nervous system. After recoding deaths previously attributed to the aetiology of the disability, 38% of deaths in the ID cohort and 17% in the comparison cohort were potentially avoidable.
Conclusions Adults with ID experience premature mortality and over-representation of potentially avoidable deaths. A national system of reporting of deaths in adults with ID is required. Inclusion in health policy and services development and in health promotion programmes is urgently required to address premature deaths and health inequalities for adults with ID