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Are survey stock price forecasts anchored by fundamental forecasts? A long-run perspective
Get PDFThis paper firstly shows that a wide range of asset pricing models, including full information and Bayesian rational expectations models, typically imply that agents use the long-run cointegration relationship between stock prices and fundamentals to forecast future stock prices. However, using several widely used survey forecast datasets, we provide robust new evidence that survey stock price forecasts are not cointegrated with forecasts of fundamentals (aggregate consumption, dividend, and output), both at the consensus and individual level. We argue that it is crucial to relax investors’ common knowledge of the equilibrium pricing function to reconcile this finding
Improved Bi-GRU for parkinson’s disease severity analysis
Get PDFParkinson’s disease (PD) is a common neuro-degenerative issue, evaluated via the continuous deterioration of motor functions over time. This condition leads to a gradual decline in movement capabilities. For diagnosing clinical set of PDs, medical experts utilize medical observations. These observations are highly based on the expert’s experience and can vary among clinicians due to its subjective nature, leading to differences in evaluation. The gait patterns of individuals with PD typically exhibit distinctions from those of adults. Evaluating these gait malformations not only aids in diagnosing PD but can also enable the categorization of severity stages with respect to symptoms of motor movement. Therefore, this paper introduces a classification of gait model based on the optimized deep learning (DL) model bidirectional gated recurrent unit-artificial hummingbird optimizer (BI-GRU-AHO). The training and testing involved the sequential segmentation of the right and left instances from the signals of vertical ground reaction force (VGRF) based on the identified gait cycle. The outcomes of the proposed BI-GRU-AHO exhibits reliable and accurate assessment of PD and achieved better accuracy of 98.7 %. The proposed model is trained and tested satisfactorily; hence it can be implemented in a real-time environment by integrating the model into a software application or system capable of receiving real-time data from PD patients
Embracing inclusivity in student healthcare practice - educating and supporting staff
No full textStudies show that up to 20% of the population are neurodivergent. Healthcare students and staff report experiencing bias and discrimination in the workplace. The People Plan for 2020/21 (NHS England, 2020) promotes a vision placing a compassionate and inclusive culture at the centre of the NHS. It highlights that all NHS employees and employers are accountable for tackling bullying and harassment. This resource focusses on creating a more civil and respectful culture
This team utilised a wide range of ND stakeholders (nursing and radiology students, nurses, midwives and lecturers) from across the UK to develop a series of interactive resources, including animated case studies for healthcare workers working with and assessing students. An intersectional approach based on lived experience was used to ensure that diversity of all kinds (race, gender, sexual identity, age and disability) was considered. The aim was to enhance understanding of the experience and needs of the ND student community through immersion in realistic scenarios, contributing to the education and support of staff in practice settings to maximise student potential, manage student needs effectively and support retention.
This project was evaluated by pairing a ND student with a Practice Supervisor (PS) and Practice Assessor (PA). The PS/PAs completed a pre-package questionnaire evaluating their understanding of neurodivergence. They then completed the package and a post-package questionnaire. A follow-up questionnaire was sent to the PA/PSs following the placement and semi-structured interviews were conducted with students either in a focus group or individually if requested.
Healthcare staff stated their understanding of supporting ND students following the training. It improved their awareness and gave them tools to support students using a more personalised approach. Students reported that the tool made supervisors more receptive to discussions surrounding reasonable adjustments and that this had improved their overall experience on placement through individualised adaptations
Can the variance in DP World Tour Golfers’ drive distance be predicted from kinetic variables during a countermovement jump and isometric mid-thigh pull?
No full textOver recent years a growing body of research has investigated the relationships clubhead velocity has with kinetic variables during a countermovement jump (CMJ) and isometric mid-thigh pull (IMTP). However, to date, no research has investigated the relationships these kinetic variables have with real-world drive distance (DD) in elite DP World Tour golfers. The purpose of this investigation was to assess if CMJ positive impulse (PI), CMJ net impulse (NI), IMTP peak force (PF), force at 200 ms, force at 250 ms and force at 300 ms could predict the variance in elite DP World Tour golfers DD during a real-world tournament season. Twenty-five DP World Tour golfers performed CMJs and IMTPs on force plates in a real-world setting, with DD assessed using DP World Tour statistics. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis was employed to assess if kinetic variables significantly predicted the variance in DP World Tour Golfers’ DD. Statistical significance for this investigation was set at p≤0.05 with effect size determined using the f2 statistic. The results of the investigation note that model two (CMJ PI and CMJ NI) significantly predicted (R2=0.279, p≤0.05) the variance in DP World Tour Golfers’ DD and was considered a large effect size (f2= 0.39). These findings support the use of CMJ PI and CMJ NI when physically profiling elite golfers. In addition, strength and conditioning practitioners should consider utilising modalities aimed at increasing CMJ impulse when working with golfers
The refugees and health crisis: migration policy management and government response to Afghan migrants
Get PDFBackground
The health crisis during the pandemic and its aftermath have caused multidimensional shifts within the economic and societal structure for refugees and other marginalized communities. Many countries have implemented programs to cater for the additional needs of underserved populations, but refugees and other migrants are usually not covered by these programs. In this context, this study attempts to explore the impact of the crisis on Afghan refugee's vulnerability and the relationship between health services, relief packages, and risk communication.
Methods
The proposed model is tested with 427 Afghan refugees’ families from five major cities of Pakistan. The partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) is used to test the vulnerability significance with the crisis and government response in facilities.
Findings
The research findings show that post pandemic economic crisis, the access to health services, relief packages and risk communication is directly associated with Afghan refugees’ vulnerability (β = 0.471, β = 0.501, β = 0.271 & β = 0.259). Notably the relationship between post pandemic economic crisis and Afghan refugees’ vulnerability is mediated by limited access to health services and unavailability of relief packages. Unavailability of relief packages and lack of risk communication mediates the effect of refugees’ crisis on vulnerability. Overall, the proposed model explains 63.3% of the variance in Afghan refugees’ vulnerability with government services. It indicates that Afghan refugees are unable to access relief packages, and there is insufficient communication of risk factors. The lack of government facilities is due to the harder closed-door policy of the Pakistani government which has worsened the vulnerability of Afghan refugees after the sudden victory of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Conclusions
In spite of hosting Afghan refugees for the last forty years, the government of Pakistan has no clear systemized policy towards Afghans till now. The paper offers practical policy implications as there is a need for migration policy management combining flexibility and friendliness cooperation to provide government services to refugees. Government preparedness has to include refugee populations in responses to emergencies and look into the current state of new Afghan refugees’ flows, and take further extension in the continuation of migration management
Policy paper: Violence against women: towards a policy understanding of the patriarchy
No full textViolence Against Women (VAW) and girls can take many forms globally, from the absence of personal agency to sexual violence and domestic abuse. To better understand how VAW affects women in the Middle East in particular, this policy brief addresses various instances of violence against Kurdish women in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). A particular focus is given to forced/arranged marriages, honour-based violence, and female genital mutilation, which form a ‘patriarchal trifecta’ of oppression: a phenomenon that the author has identified and researched extensively. The policy brief recommendations informed by this research are relevant to policymakers both in the KRI and beyond, including European Union member states that have dealt with troubling cases of violence against women in immigrant communities and are facing similar challenges to women’s rights. Examining violations against women is relevant for many parts of the Middle East, and more broadly societies and communities where patriarchal values and norms produce a social milieu where the main justification for VAW is the protection of a social construct of honour. This policy brief is informed by fieldwork conducted in the KRI; 55 qualitative interviews with policymakers, United Nations officials, attorneys, academics, activists, civil society members, plus women and male survivors and perpetrators of VAW; and a quantitative survey conducted among 200 women and men to gauge their opinions on this multi-faceted phenomenon. The goal of this policy brief is to give the public institutions responsible for monitoring women’s welfare a better picture of the challenges to equality that women still face and offer ways forward in terms of addressing these challenges
Optimizing physical recovery in male field sport athletes following anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction: residual deficits, performance targets, and training strategies
No full textDespite passing a battery of tests and being considered ready to return to sport, residual deficits in physical capacity of the lower limb are commonly present in multi-directional athletes following an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction. These can have a detrimental impact on individual and overall team athletic performance and may increase the risk of re-injury. Targeted strategies to assess and restore lower limb performance within rehabilitation are therefore crucial. The aim of this review is to (1) describe common residual deficits in physical capacities after ACL reconstruction, (2) highlight achievable performance metrics to target during rehabilitation to assist practitioners in collecting useful information, and (3)propose examples of evidence-based strategies to restore full recovery
Adaptable methodology of action learning: creating a trusted space for collaboration and action [Editorial]
No full textThe femme vivante: she won’t die, she won’t shut up and she doesn’t want you to f*** her
No full textIn this paper I will explore the relationship between gender and violence in contemporary crime and thriller fiction. Incorporating recent debates around ‘dead girl’ tropes, revenge dramas and theories of the gaze, I will explore the process of writing in a genre that, until relatively recently, has been saturated with dead women. Focusing on a selection of pivotal works from the past fifteen years including Gone Girl, My Sister the Serial Killer and Bad Sisters, I will discuss the shifting fashions of female representation in crime fiction from faceless victims and unreliable narrators to ruthless cops and caustic murderers.
I will suggest and reflect upon a new kind of female protagonist – the ‘femme vivante’ or ‘living woman’ - who sits alongside the femme fatale in contemporary fiction (across literature and visual media) as a woman who either hunts the killer, cannot be killed, becomes the killer or refuses to stay silent. She is the stubborn, powerful, middle-aged, emotionally problematic (frequently sexually adventurous) front woman of shows like Mare of Easttown, Happy Valley and Killing Eve, and she is also the killer-with-a-heart in female-led revenge dramas like Bad Sisters and My Sister the Serial Killer, as well as cropping up in a slew of recent works that explore crime fiction from the survivor's perspective (Girl A, The Girls and Women Talking).
These protagonists now frequently appear in true crime tales of vengeful wives, in female-led detective procedurals, and in mainstream comedy-dramas that push complex women with scores to settle centre-stage. In some respects, these narratives can be seen as a riposte to all those old crime stories of female victims and male aggressors, a loud and vengeful reaction against the beautiful, silent, dead girl.
The femme fatale has evolved. She’s not deadly – she’s exuberant. Less ice cold, more on fire. She’s a survivor, she’s a hunter, she’s a killer. She’s the future. With violence against women and girls at ‘epidemic’ levels, can escapism and hope be found in radical crime fiction that reframes outmoded gender tropes and upends victim/killer archetypes
The representation of people as a means to facilitate diversity and inclusion within interiors education
No full textVisual depictions of designed/proposed spaces communicate their intended qualities, use, and users, but visualizations that fail to include a fair representation of the people for whom the spaces are designed can create barriers, both real and imagined. A lack of diversity and inclusivity within visuals reflects a disregard for marginalized individuals and a lack of understanding of their needs. Here, we investigated whether an initial focus on the representation of people within design visualizations could be an effective pedagogical tool to introduce and aid further development in student understanding of Diversity and Inclusion more broadly, and how these can impact the practice of Interior Architecture and Design to create more truly inclusive spaces. Our workshops focused on the effects of visual representation, unconscious bias, and inclusion/exclusion; the range of individual characteristics to consider when developing designs; and how to engage wit potential users via co-creation. We also used writing activities to enhance reflection and empathy, providing guidance on developing diverse and inclusive human representations. Collection of quantitative and qualitative data from two cohorts
of undergraduate Interior Architecture & Design students who took part in our interactive workshops via a hybrid setup allowed us to observe three main outcomes from workshop participation: improved understanding of the importance of visuals in communicating social and political aspects of designed spaces; increased consideration of the characteristics of inhabitants for whom spaces are designed; and improved confidence in engaging with marginalized communities. Our workshops also led to a deeper understanding of ways in which different group characteristics and identities intersect to influence how people experience and use designed spaces, and to the successful application of this knowledge to subsequent student projects. We conclude that an initial focus on diverse and inclusive visual representations of people appears to be an effective approach to facilitating the use of more inclusive practices throughout the entire design process