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The value of experiments in futures and foresight science: a reply
Get PDFWe thank those responding to our paper ‘The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning’ (Derbyshire et al., 2022a). The research on which the paper was based was funded by a Research and Capacity Building Grant from the Society for the Advancement of Management Studies (SAMS) and the British Academy of Management (BAM). In addition to writing the focal paper, the project funded by the grant also saw the authors conduct three controlled experiments related to scenario planning, findings from which are to be reported in two further papers that are currently under review. We thank SAMS and BAM for their support in developing an area of research which is rapidly increasing in importance.
In the UK, scenarios featured centrally within official government decision-making processes during the coronavirus pandemic and were referred to in the media daily. The pandemic confirmed that, if it were ever possible to deny fundamental uncertainty or that new tools and methods are needed to tackle it, that is no longer the case. The dangers associated with closing the future to make it amenable to standard forecasting tools and probability-based decision aids are clear. Closing the future to make it amenable to these standard tools leads to blindsiding by surprises. Yet, recognising the dangers associated with tools that are presently more mainstream is one thing and evidencing the efficacy of alternative tools quite another. Experiments should be a tool in the methodological toolbox of those searching for this evidence for the reasons we outlined in our paper. Below we provide some reflections on four expert responses to our paper
An overview of angiogenesis in bladder cancer
Get PDFPurpose of the review: Angiogenesis plays a key role in bladder cancer (BC) pathogenesis. In the last two decades, increasing number of publications depicting a multitude of novel angiogenic molecules and pathways have emerged. The growing complexity necessitates evaluation of the breadth of current knowledge to highlight key findings and guide future research.
Recent findings: Angiogenesis is a dynamic biologic process that is inherently difficult to assess. Clinical assessment of angiogenesis in BCs is advancing with the integration of image analysis systems and dynamic contrast-enhanced and magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI). Tumour associated macrophages (TAMs) significantly influence the angiogenic process and further research is needed to assess their potential as therapeutic targets. A rapidly growing list of non-coding RNAs affect angiogenesis in BCs, partly through modulation of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) activity. Vascular mimicry (VM) has been repeatedly associated with increased tumour aggressiveness in BCs. Standardised assays are needed for appropriate identification and quantification of VM channels.
Summary: This article demonstrates the dynamic and complex nature of the angiogenic process and asserts the need for further studies to deepen our understanding
Panic, pizza and mainstreaming the alt-right: a social media analysis of Pizzagate and the rise of the QAnon conspiracy
Get PDFThe conspiracy theory known as ‘Pizzagate’ gained a cult following on alt-right forums, ultimately prompting one believer to conduct a shooting on the pizzeria identified by online conspiracists. A thematic analysis of 767 tweets referencing Pizzagate selected from five key intervention points in this timeframe reveals several factors influencing Pizzagate’s continued appeal over a four-year period. The article examines how an online alt-right conspiracy collective, QAnon, weaponized Pizzagate as part of its overarching campaign to attract support for President Donald Trump and worked to establish the theory as a popular (albeit false) narrative within the contemporary political zeitgeist
Police-led real-time surveillance system for suspected suicides in Great Britain
Get PDFIt has become increasingly apparent that rapidly available information about the occurrence of suicides is needed, particularly to support suicide prevention efforts. Concerns about the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on vulnerability to suicide highlighted the need for such early data internationally. Here, we set out the nature, current status, and content of a real-time suicide monitoring system in Great Britain (England, Scotland, and Wales), and explore its potential to contribute to timely and targeted suicide prevention initiatives. We also discuss the challenges to successful implementation
Quarantine ships as spaces of bordering: the securitization of migration policy in Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic
Get PDFThe COVID-19 pandemic presented an opportunity for bordering, that is, for measures that aim to delineate foreigners’ access to citizenship and membership and to further securitize migration policy. Across the globe, new border controls were introduced, stringent new international regulations applied, and hundreds of thousands of flights cancelled, all of which resulted in millions of travelers, including migrant workers and transnational commuters, being stranded. Among the areas affected by these bordering measures is the central Mediterranean migratory route to Italy. In Spring 2020, the Italian government introduced two measures aimed to block migrant arrivals by sea: the closure of ports to search-and-rescue (SAR) operations and the use of ships to quarantine migrants arriving on SAR ships. While the former was only partially implemented and then lifted in the summer of 2020, the latter has become a cornerstone of current securitization policies in Italy. This article — relying on semi-structured interviews with activists, non-governmental organization volunteers, human rights lawyers, and journalists — interrogates the use of quarantine ships during the pandemic as a means of stopping COVID-19's spread by irregular migrants arriving along the central Mediterranean. It shows how this measure, presented as a humanitarian mission to preserve public health, became an opportunity to securitize national and EU borders and how quarantine ships became spaces aimed at filtering and containing arriving migrants. The article aims to contribute to the debate around the bordering policy measures that characterize current EU migration governance and to consider their application during the pandemic
Factors influencing gaseous emissions in constructed wetlands: a meta-analysis and systematic review
Get PDFConstructed wetlands (CWs) are an eco-technology for wastewater treatment and are applied worldwide. Due to the regular influx of pollutants, CWs can release considerable quantities of greenhouse gases (GHGs), ammonia (NH3), and other atmospheric pollutants, such as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and hydrogen sulfide (H2S), etc., which will aggravate global warming, degrade air quality and even threaten human health. However, there is a lack of systematic understanding of factors affecting the emission of these gases in CWs. In this study, we applied meta-analysis to quantitatively review the main influencing factors of GHG emission from CWs; meanwhile, the emissions of NH3, VOCs, and H2S were qualitatively assessed. Meta-analysis indicates that horizontal subsurface flow (HSSF) CWs emit less CH4 and N2O than free water surface flow (FWS) CWs. The addition of biochar can mitigate N2O emission compared to gravel-based CWs but has the risk of increasing CH4 emission. Polyculture CWs stimulate CH4 emission but pose no influence on N2O emission compared to monoculture CWs. The influent wastewater characteristics (e.g., C/N ratio, salinity) and environmental conditions (e.g., temperature) can also impact GHG emission. The NH3 volatilization from CWs is positively related to the influent nitrogen concentration and pH value. High plant species richness tends to reduce NH3 volatilization and plant composition showed greater effects than species richness. Though VOCs and H2S emissions from CWs do not always occur, it should be a concern when using CWs to treat wastewater containing hydrocarbon and acid. This study provides solid references for simultaneously achieving pollutant removal and reducing gaseous emission from CWs, which avoids the transformation of water pollution into air contamination
IHWC: intelligent hidden web crawler for harvesting data in urban domains
Get PDFDue to the massive size of the hidden web, searching, retrieving and mining rich and high-quality data can be a daunting task. Moreover, with the presence of forms, data cannot be accessed easily. Forms are dynamic, heterogeneous and spread over trillions of web pages. Significant efforts have addressed the problem of tapping into the hidden web to integrate and mine rich data. Effective techniques, as well as application in special cases, are required to be explored to achieve an effective harvest rate. One such special area is atmospheric science, where hidden web crawling is least implemented, and crawler is required to crawl through the huge web to narrow down the search to specific data. In this study, an intelligent hidden web crawler for harvesting data in urban domains (IHWC) is implemented to address the relative problems such as classification of domains, prevention of exhaustive searching, and prioritizing the URLs. The crawler also performs well in curating pollution-related data. The crawler targets the relevant web pages and discards the irrelevant by implementing rejection rules. To achieve more accurate results for a focused crawl, ICHW crawls the websites on priority for a given topic. The crawler has fulfilled the dual objective of developing an effective hidden web crawler that can focus on diverse domains and to check its integration in searching pollution data in smart cities. One of the objectives of smart cities is to reduce pollution. Resultant crawled data can be used for finding the reason for pollution. The crawler can help the user to search the level of pollution in a specific area. The harvest rate of the crawler is compared with pioneer existing work. With an increase in the size of a dataset, the presented crawler can add significant value to emission accuracy. Our results are demonstrating the accuracy and harvest rate of the proposed framework, and it efficiently collect hidden web interfaces from large-scale sites and achieve higher rates than other crawlers
International criminal law and refugee protection: The interplay between international criminal law and Article 1F(A) of the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees
No full textThe 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees is the centre piece of international refugee protection. It consolidates previous refugee instruments thereby providing a comprehensive codification of refugee rights internationally. Whilst assuring basic civil and social rights to millions of refugees worldwide, the Convention in Article 1F(a) seeks to exclude from its protection individuals determined to have committed international crimes prior to seeking refuge. Considering the autonomous nature of the Convention, this study seeks to examine two research questions. It seeks to examine the scope of the correlation between international criminal law and the application of Article 1F(a) to asylum determinations, and the extent to which this application upholds the refugee applicant’s right to procedural fairness and natural justice. This analysis is approached from within the context of the conceptual issues of crime, standard of proof, individual criminal responsibility, and criminal defences. The framework adopted assesses these concepts in the practice and jurisprudence of international criminal justice against that of a sample of refugee hosting States, and the guidance of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. It is argued that a principled application of the clause requires a unified approach based on international criminal law principles. Whereas States have the right to apply the clause autonomously, the gravity of the crimes involved and the possible consequences to the claimant require a uniform approach derived from international criminal law. This interpretation and application of the clause institutes universal, fair, and just procedures in the application of criminal principles to refugee law. It upholds the need to interpret and apply the clause in a careful manner with a full appraisal of all circumstances of the applicant thereby preserving the individual’s right to procedural fairness and natural justice
Refugee entrepreneurship and institutional voids: the case of Syrian refugee entrepreneurs in Egypt
Get PDFRefugee entrepreneurship is increasingly viewed as a viable means for refugees to gain self-reliance and integrate into their host counties. Yet, given the diversity of institutional contexts that host refugees, calls have been made to expand research on how institutions influence refugee entrepreneurship. We respond to this call by presenting herein an abductive study of Syrian refugee entrepreneurs in an emerging market (Egypt) who managed to establish and maintain entrepreneurial ventures despite institutional voids (i.e. where key institutions are either missing or underperforming). The work offers an extension of the institutional voids perspective for studying refugee entrepreneurs, known as refugee-economy voids. These account for the influence of national and international formal and informal institutions on refugee entrepreneurs. To address refugee-economy voids, we also discuss three strategies used by refugee entrepreneurs: (i) masking strategies, (ii) jockeying strategies, and (iii) informal crowdfunding strategies. This paper also provides new evidence dealing with the supportive role and solidarity of the host country’s nationals with refugee entrepreneurs. On a policy level, the findings can inform the development of targeted policy interventions to address refugee-economy voids across different host countries and to improve support for refugees’ self-reliance through entrepreneurship