Turkish Economic Review
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The Impact of Age Distribution on Household Consumption: Evidence from Saudi Arabia
No full textAbstract. This paper aims to analyze the impact of age distribution on household consumption at the aggregate level. For that, statistical and econometric techniques are used, such as Unit root test, Co-integration and Granger Engels causality through Vector Error Correction Model, for testing an eventual short and long run causal relationships. This study is important since it helps to develop efficient national strategies for the short and the long run according to the evolution of the demographic profile and structure. Empirical validation for the Saudi Arabian case shows that the causality’s effect differs significantly according to consider the size versus the proportion of each age group. In addition, the analysis and discussions of results for each age categories gave specific conclusions for the overtime causality effect on Saudi Arabian household final consumption.Keywords. Age distribution, Consumption, Causality, Cointegration; Statistical tests.JEL. C22, D12, J11
Estimating Financial Trends by Spline Fitting via Fisher Algoritm
No full textTrends have a crucial role in finance such as setting investment strategies and technical analysis. Determining trend changes in an optimal way is the main aim of this study. The model of this study improves the optimality by spline fitting to the equations to reduce the error terms. The results show that spline fitting is more efficient compared to line fitting by % and Fisher Method by %. This method may be used to determine regime switches as well
Foreign-Invested Enterprises in China:
No full text Abstract. The objective of this study was to illustrate the development and sustainability for foreign-invested enterprises in China.Banks would react to banking regulation of Basel III. The traditional loans are very costly in capital. Banks restrict lending and treat lending as a marketing tool. Foreign-invested enterprises will be difficult to get the traditional loans. The development of peer to peer (P2P) leading perform will be targeted for the foreign-invested enterprises’ new financing channel in China and the world. Also, brand name is the key factor for enterprise survival. It represents the commercial integrity. Foreign-invested enterprises can use the concept of creating shared value (CSV) as reference to sustain their business in China. Keywords. Foreign-InvestedEnterprises, Peer to Peer (P2P), Creating Shared Value (CSV), China. JEL. E22, M00, O10
Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth in the North Africa Region: Cointegration Panel Analysis by DOLS and FMOLS Models
No full textAbstract. This article aims at examining the impact of financial liberalization on the economic growth in the North African countries. The econometric study, which covers the period between 1995 and 2013, relies on a sample composed of four Northern African countries and referring to the database of the World Bank data (2013), Heritage Foundation (2013) and Financial Openness of (the Institute for international and development Economics, 2009). The estimate model of cointegration panel reveals that there is a long-term relationship between the variables. Moreover, the estimation of DOLS and FMOLS models shows that the latter is more adequate to explain the financial liberalization’s impact on the economic growth of the North African countries.Keywords. Financial liberalization, Economic growth, Panel cointegration, DOLS, FMOLS.JEL. F43, O16, O47
Assessing Recent Turkey’s Foreign Trade Performance
No full textAbstract. Turkey`s foreign trade performance compare with its own past and with its major trading partnersincreased significantly over the last decade. This increase seems related to the growth trend of exports by geographical destinations. Recent global financial and economic crises and worsening geo–political environment challenged Turkey’s foreign trade as well. Turkey’s foreign trade increased nearly by 3–fold through exporting the risky countriessince 2003.The aim of this article is to examine Turkey’s foreign trade by focusing on increased exposures of export destinationsfor the period of 2003–2013. In this study, export destinations’ rating are used to calculate export exposure. The results suggest that finding new markets especially in neighborand least developed countries caused new risks for Turkey, increasing export exposure. This exposure can be seen in the deterioration of sovereign rating of export destinations, from A+/A to BBB. This seems to suggest that even though Turkey have increased foreign trade with the new markets, this exposure should be covered by well–designed policies as Turkey suffers from foreign trade deficit continuously. Turkey should attempt on policy reform which would increase its competitiveness in export markets and productsand thus enable it to increase its ranking in the World trade..Keywords. Foreign trade, Export exposure, Sovereign rating.JEL. O52, F1, G24
A critical review of regional economic integration in China
No full textUnder the circumstances of economic globalization, regional economic integration has become the mainstream of current economic development for each country, so China has to pay more attention to it. The critical review on regional economic integration in China can lay a certain foundation and provide experience for the in-depth research. Main contents of regional economic integration are refined according to the previous studies and realities, including the integration of regional economic resource, regional economic entities and regional economic running environment. Efficiencies and inefficiencies of regional economic integration are summarized and analized. The combined of two pillars of regional economic integration including market and government are efficiently, and some of the effective measures implemented are also summarized to enhance competitiveness, improve efficiency, and achieve greater economic cohesion. The brief empirical research of west-China practice and prospects is provided to prove above viewpoint..Keywords. Regional economic integration, Process and contents, Efficiencies and inefficiencie, Policy means.JEL. O18, R10, R11
Reflections on Chinese Political Economy
No full textThe aim of this paper is to discuss the reasons for the rapid growth in the Chinese economy over the last three decades. China has been growing fastest in human history, which has an impact on the global economy and also various challenges that the country faces. It is seen as heralding a major shift in the international division of labour through changes in its output and employment pattern. China is described as becoming the “work-shop” of the world as a result of the expansion of its manufacturing production. Its impact on other Asian economies and also on the world economy has the potential to be enormous. Market reforms and opening up of the Chinese economy to trade and foreign capital since the early 1980s, have unleashed entrepreneurial energies. China’s development policies can be best understood if these are looked at from an institutional economic perspective. This article is based on a review of published papers in the field of economic policies, focusing on the debate concerning the respective roles of the state and the market. A wide range of data sources are presented, including statistics compiled and generated by wide range of organisations such as IMF, World Bank and WTO that are non-governmental agencies. Secondary data of this type provides greater potential for addressing the research questions than statistics produced by the national government. This study finds that corporate debt has risen in recent years in China, a large part of these loans having been financed with investment in trust products issued by the banks. In addition, a huge amount of credit has been channelled into the real estate sector, and seems to be heading towards the housing and estate sectors, meaning that most of this is speculative. Investments are financed by credit; which clearly needs to be repaid. If these levels of debt become unsustainable this could pose a major challenge for the Chinese economy.Keywords. Chinese economic reforms, state intervention, economic performance and trade.JEL. F11, F40, N10
Keith Hartley, The Political Economy of Aerospace Industries: A Key Driver of Growth and International Competitiveness?
No full textBook Revie
Alternative Measures of Credit Extension for Countercyclical Buffer Decisions in South Africa
No full textAbstract. This paper analyses the behaviour of alternative measures of credit extension for countercyclical buffer decisions in South Africa. These measures include the deviation of the ratio of private sector credit extension to gross domestic product from its long term trend, the deviation of the logarithm of private sector credit extension from its long term trend as well as the annual percentage change in private sector credit extension. The cyclical properties of these measures are examined over the economic and the financial cycles. The results show that the deviation of the ratio of private sector credit extension to gross domestic product from its long term trend is countercyclical with the economic cycle. The results further show that the deviation of the logarithm of private sector credit extension from its long term trend is procyclical with both the economic and the financial cycle. The results finally show that the annual percentage change in private sector credit extension generally performs poorly in cyclical terms with both the economic and the financial cycle. Consequently, of the three alternative measures of private sector credit extension considered, the deviation of the logarithm of private sector credit extension from its long term trend could be used as a common reference guide for implementing the countercyclical capital buffers for financial institutions in South Africa.Keywords. Credit extension, Countercyclical capital buffers.JEL. C32, E44, E51, G21