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Investigating the significance of reputational risk In banks' financial performance
Get PDFThe field of organizational studies, particularly in the financial sector, has increasingly acknowledged the importance of effective risk management. This consensus is pivotal for the stability and health of the global financial system and is supported by studies showing the positive impact of managing key risks like credit, market, operational, and liquidity on a bank's overall performance. Despite these advancements, gaps remain, especially concerning nonfinancial risks like reputational risk. Reputational risk in banking is complex, with current research offering fragmented insights, particularly regarding its impact on financial outcomes. Many studies have focused on short- term market reactions, neglecting the long-term financial impact on banks, and often overlooking key financial metrics like Return on Assets (RoA) (Cummins et al., 2006; Eckert & Gatzert, 2017; Fiordelisi et al., 2013; Gillet et al., 2010; Perry & de Fontnouvelle, 2005). Heidinger & Gatzert (2018) and Gillet et al. (2010) contributed significantly to understanding the dynamics between reputational risk and RoA, but their research did not explore the direct impact of reputational events on RoA, leaving a crucial aspect unexplored. Furthermore, there's a notable lack of research directly linking the severe reputational damage stemming from operational risks, and especially internal frauds to a bank's financial well-being, specifically in terms of deviations in returns (mainly RoA). Also, most reputational research is confined to U.S. and European regions, lacking a global perspective. The aim of the research was to address these shortcomings by examining the diverse effects of reputational risk resulting from internal fraud on the financial performance of banks, with a particular emphasis on deviations in RoA. The study employed a comprehensive theoretical framework combining the Resource-Based Theory (RBT) and the Unified Theory of Reaction in Assets Market to analyze the dynamics of reputational risk in banking. In order to align with the aforementioned theoretical foundations, the study employs a positivist research paradigm, emphasizing empirical evidence and logical reasoning for the objective validation and generalization of the relationship between reputational risk and the financial performance of banks. The utilization of quantitative methodologies within this paradigm guarantees the requisite methodological rigor and objectivity for a comprehensive and detailed examination. By leveraging reputable data sources like the Global Operational Loss Database (GOLD) by Riskbusiness (UK) for operational loss details, the Bloomberg databases for essential financial metrics, and the World Bank databases for critical macroeconomic indicators, the study ensures it is built upon a foundation of accurate, reliable, and globally recognized data points. Consistent with previous studies, the research used a longitudinal dataset spanning ten years,focusing on commercial and retail banks with operational losses exceeding USD 100,000. The comprehensive and systematic process of identifying operational losses resulted in the selection of 61 instances of internal fraud. These losses are distributed across 18 different currencies, implicating 53 banks situated in 23 countries and 10 distinct geographical regions globally. Considering that the ultimate goal of managing reputational risk, much like the broader risk management framework within a bank, is to continually minimize its influence on pivotal financial indicators like RoA (Coskun et al., 2019; Wanjohi et al., 2017), this research considered adjusting the traditional "event study" methodology and the "market reaction" paradigm commonly employed in reputational research (Cummins et al., 2006b; Eckert & Gatzert, 2017; Fiordelisi et al., 2013b; Gillet et al., 2010b). Instead of focusing on market reactions within an "event window," the study used a panel longitudinal analysis. The estimation of reputational loss was based on the analysis of trends in RoA for a period of three years prior to and following each operational loss event. This was conducted using the Generalized Least Square (GLS) Random Effects model. The rigorous application of multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity, and autocorrelation tests ensures the validity of the random effects model employed. Additionally, the study utilized the Boehmer et al. (1991) test statistic Z, originally developed to detect event-induced volatility in stock returns, to assess the statistical significance of the mean abnormal returns (AR) associated with reputational loss. The collective results of these tests provide substantial evidence that the findings derived from the model are robust and reinforce the credibility of the conclusions drawn from the analysis. The study's findings revealed a substantial negative impact of internal fraud disclosures on banks' RoA, with an average reputational loss of around $54 million. The finding challenges the RBT, which suggests that larger banks (tangible and intangible assets) are better equipped to mitigate reputational crises. Instead, the study found a high positive correlation between the size of the bank and the intensity of the operational loss. Moreover, the research highlighted the importance of a global perspective, revealing significant regional variations in the impact of reputational losses. The study's conclusions contribute significantly to the understanding of reputational risk in the banking sector, offering both theoretical and practical insights. The rejection of the null hypothesis (H01) for banks with at least one negative AR post-event confirmed the critical impact of reputational events on financial outcomes. The study also challenged the assumption that the size of operational losses predicts the extent of reputational damage. Smaller banks were found to be more susceptible to reputational damage, supporting the alternative hypothesis (H3). Additionally, significant regional variations in the impact of reputational losses were confirmed, emphasizing the need for region-specific risk management strategies. This research not only advances academic discourse but also has substantial implications for real-world banking practices. It contributes to a deeper understanding of reputational risk dynamics, challenging existing theories, and offers banks crucial insights for tailoring their risk management strategies based on size and regional factors. Future research should focus on expanding the sample size for a more comprehensive analysis and investigate the integration of a capital charge for reputational risk in banking regulations
Metabolite profiling of Eragrostis nindensis during desiccation and recovery
Get PDFResurrection plants are a unique group of angiosperms that can withstand cellular water loss of up to 95% and resume full metabolic activity upon rehydration. To withstand extreme water loss, they employ a plethora of molecular, physiological, and biochemical processes including accumulation of metabolites that shield the plant cells from photo-oxidative damage and reactive oxygen species. A global understanding of the whole plant using a multi-omics approach will provide more insights into how different parts of the plant deal with desiccation. This study aimed to identify the different metabolites that are differentially abundant in Eragrostis nindensis at different stages of dehydration and rehydration time points in both desiccation-sensitive senescent (ST) and desiccation-tolerant non-senescent (NST) leaf tissue using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry Furthermore, this study compared the shoot and root systems to unravel similarities and differences at the whole plant level in overcoming desiccation. The metabolomics data from the shoots between NST and ST showed that differentially abundant metabolites in NST act as major drivers for plant desiccation tolerance and also aid the plant post-recovery. The roots accumulated fewer metabolites than the shoots; however, some specific metabolites were shown to accumulate exclusively in the roots. These findings revealed that E. nindensis exhibits a metabolic shift with the abundance of sugars such as raffinose and sucrose, amino acids such as glycine and glutamic acid and organic acids such as alpha-ketoglutaric acid and citric acid during dehydration, resulting in accumulation of desiccation-responsive metabolites predominantly in NST compared to ST. The results demonstrated that the leaves have a different metabolic shift pattern that is more variable, and the roots' metabolome is less affected by desiccation. Post- rehydration, there is an accumulation of amino acids and organic acids to aid in the resumption of metabolism in NST compared to ST and roots. The accumulation of these metabolites may protect E. nindensis from the damage associated with rapid drying, as the accumulation of similar metabolites identified in this study has been reported to function as osmoprotectants, reactive oxygen species quenchers and compatible solutes that replace water during desiccation. The identified metabolites and metabolic process provide a great insight into the goal of improving drought tolerance in orphan and drought-sensitive crops
Patterns, predictors and outcomes of patient transfer in public sector chronic primary care services
Get PDFBackground: To maintain long-term care, patients with chronic conditions may require transfers between health facilities, jeopardising continuity of care. High levels of geographic mobility in low-and middle-income countries mean that patients may require transfers between primary health care (PHC) facilities. In addition, with decentralisation of chronic care services in many settings there are increasing numbers of PHC facilities between which patients can transfer. However, research on transfers between PHC facilities is limited. This thesis investigated transfers between PHC facilities of stable patients with chronic conditions in South Africa using HIV and diabetes as exemplars. Methods: First, national guidelines were reviewed for recommendations regarding transfers of people living with HIV (PLH). Second, routinely collected data from across the Western Cape were used to determine transfer incidence and outcomes among PLH and people living with diabetes (PLD). Third, at a PHC facility in Cape Town, medical records of PLH transferring in from any PHC facility in the province were reviewed to compare features of silent (health facility not informed of transfer, transfer letter not obtained) and official (health facility informed, transfer letter obtained) transfers. Fourth, in a trial of antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery strategies among postpartum women, data were obtained from questionnaires (demographics and travel history) and in-depth interviews exploring barriers to transfer. Findings: Recommendations regarding management of transfers between PHC facilities were limited, particularly for silent transfers. Transfers between PHC facilities occurred frequently among PLH and PLD and were associated with viraemia and raised HbA1c results respectively. Among PLH transferring into a PHC facility, 52% had interrupted ART and 30% had clinical concerns; these percentages were higher among silent than official transfers. Among postpartum women, poor relationships with healthcare providers led to silent transfers; barriers to successful transfer included fear of community stigma and limited knowledge of transfer options and processes including for mobile women. Conclusions: Considering the volume and outcomes of transfers among PLH and PLD, routine monitoring and reporting of the number of transfers and transfer outcomes should be considered. Research on interventions to improve transfer outcomes and on transfers among people with other chronic conditions is warrante
An application of the theory of planned behaviour to predict financial behaviour of minibus-taxi drivers and owners in Cape Town
Get PDFThe minibus-taxi industry is one of the largest informal employment sectors in South Africa. While informal employment often equates to low income work anecdotal reports from minibus- taxi drivers suggest that this does not necessarily apply in the minibus-taxi industry. This implies that working in this industry could thus provide a stepping stone out of poverty. At the same time, anecdotal evidence, too, indicates that many minibus-taxi drivers have little to no savings. The objective of this research was to explore if the theory of planned behaviour could provide a useful theoretical framework to explain the saving and spending habits of individuals in the minibus-taxi industry. This is as the theory could assist in identifying at which level to intervene in order to shift more individuals in the minibus-taxi industry to use their jobs as an opportunity to improve their financial situation. Minibus-taxi owners and drivers participated in a self-report survey (N=119). It included scales derived from existing measures when possible, and self-developed items where not possible. Principal component analysis revealed that the financial behaviour scale was only adequate to assess saving behaviour, but not spending behaviour. Perceived behavioural control comprised three components which linked differently to saving behaviour: perceived knowledge and ability to manage money were positively related to intentions to save and to actual saving behaviour, while perceived challenges in managing money were related to saving behaviour but not to saving intention. Greater subjective norms and more positive attitudes towards saving were related to greater saving intentions. Intention to save was the strongest predictor of actual saving behaviour. When considering all five predictor variables (subjective norms, attitudes, perceived knowledge of money management, perceived challenges to manage money and perceived ability to handle money) together, only perceived ability to manage money explained a significant amount of unique variance in saving intentions. Perceived ability to manage money and challenges in managing money explained unique proportions of variance in saving behaviour. Greater challenges in managing money were associated with lower saving behaviour. Saving intention mediated the relationships between attitudes, perceived knowledge and perceived ability to manage money - and saving behaviour, but not the relationship between challenges with money and subjective norms - and saving behaviour. Most of the results were in line with the theory of planned behaviour and specifically indicates that strengthening the perceived behavioural control of those working in the minibus-taxi industry could be a beneficial intervention point to encourage saving behaviour
Assessing the processes of determining adaptation finance needs: a comparative study of African NDCs
Get PDFNationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) represent a key framework for climate action, outlining each country's commitment to reducing greenhouse gases and adapting to the impacts of climate change. In Africa, the significance of adaptation finance in supporting the implementation of NDCs cannot be overstated, especially with most African countries requiring external financial support. To close the financial gap, the UNFCCC requested developing countries provide cost estimates for implementing their NDC commitments. However, most countries struggled to compute these estimates, and only a few managed to indicate both the estimates and costing processes. Previous research has looked at the overall cost of adaptation in developing countries; however, a comprehensive assessment to evaluate the robustness of processes used to determine adaptation finance needs expressed in NDCs is still lacking. This thesis solely assesses 27 African countries that submitted their 2021 NDCs in English. It documents the various approaches adopted and assesses their robustness against criteria based on the 'elements of adaptation communications', a framework adopted from the World Resource Institute. The framework provides guidelines on reporting national circumstances, assessing impacts, risks, vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and identifying financial needs. The thesis investigates costing methodologies and whether governments provided detailed information on impact and vulnerability assessments related to the adaptation options that require financial support. This qualitative analysis of the African NDCs revealed that most countries state the figures without providing information on the methodologies or processes of costing the adaptation actions. Although there is a growing recognition of the need to include detailed costing methodologies in NDCs, such reporting currently needs to happen. A context-based reporting format should be developed and standardized at a regional level, which can work as a blueprint for countries with similar national circumstances and exposure to climate impacts
Analysis of gender wage gap using mixed effects models
Get PDFDespite government interventions, the gender wage gap persists in workplaces. While reports on whether the gap is widening or narrowing vary, addressing this issue remains crucial. Traditionally, researchers have employed methods like the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition and quantile regression to estimate the gender wage gap. However, these approaches often leave a high unexplained variance attributed to discrimination. In existing studies, gender wage gap estimates have typically been aggregated, and attempts to disaggregate the analysis have focused on broader levels such as occupations and salary bands. To delve deeper, human resource data from the National Department of Health in South Africa Eastern Cape province was leveraged. The goal was to analyze the gender wage gap for each job title using a novel approach: linear mixed effects regression. The linear mixed effects model captures both systematic trends and unexplained variability simultaneously to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the gender wage gap. Here are the key findings: 1. The unexplained variance in gender wage gap was remarkably low, accounting for only 3% of total variance. This indicates that the model captures most of the variability in the data as a result there is minimal unexplained variation. 2. Job titles emerged very significant by explaining 83% of the total random variance. This highlights the significance of considering specific roles when analyzing gender wage gap. 3. Over time, interesting patterns were observed. From 2010, the gender wage gap narrowed, but starting around 2015, it gradually widened again. 4. Encouragingly, 42% of the job title groups showed a gender wage gap in favor of women. Additionally, a substantial proportion of females occupied managerial and highly skilled positions. Therefore, incorporating random effects techniques through linear mixed effects regression enriched the analysis of gender wage gap. By examining job titles individually, detailed insights into this complex issue were gained. These findings underscore the importance of considering both fixed and random effects when studying wage disparities
Searching for transcendence: an exploration of spirituality in the films of Andrei Tarkovsky and Terrence Malick
Get PDFThe objective of this dissertation is to discuss how spirituality is explored in the films Mirror (1975, dir. Andrei Tarkovsky) and A Hidden Life (2019, dir. Terrence Malick) through the application of the concept of transcendence. This dissertation approaches transcendence from a spiritual framework (removed from religion and theology) as opposed to the philosophical treatment it tends to receive in other literature. Recent discussions surrounding transcendence in film have been concerned with a films philosophical content, narrative content and aesthetic style and while these have merit, they tend to ignore the unique aspect of cinema that allows one to feel that sensation while viewing. As such, this dissertation identifies mood as the distinctive quality of cinema that allows it to be a medium for transcendence. In order to understand how this may be achieved, I arrive at three conditions of transcendence in film; point of view, the revelation as opposed to opposition and externalising the internal. To illustrate how these conditions function in a film of transcendence, I apply them to Russian director Andrei Tarkovsky's film Mirror (1975) as well as American director Terrence Malick's A Hidden Life (2019) as they are known to have spiritual engagement with the medium, albeit approached differently. By analysing Mirror and A Hidden Life, this exploration seeks to highlight transcendence's subjectivity and, paradoxically, its universality. I conclude my exploration by summarizing my findings and proposing that future studies be done to test the validity of these conditions
Investigation into implementing a massively parallel sequencing workflow for forensic human identification in South Africa
No full textSouth Africa faces grave challenges with high crime rates and associated unidentified bodies each year. DNA profiling using capillary electrophoresis (CE) is typically utilised for human identification purposes but is limiting when applied to degraded post-mortem samples. The ForenSeqTM DNA Signature Prep kit was the first massively parallel sequencing (MPS) workflow validated on the MiSeq FGxTM system, addressing several challenges identified in CE-based methods. With forensic laboratories in developing regions showing proclivity towards a seemingly impossible adoption of MPS, sequence-based studies in Africa are sorely needed to leverage emerging advancements for forensic human identification. This study proposed a four-phased approach for laboratories to facilitate the implementation of MPS for forensic human identification, and included: optimisation, population data generation, internal validation and demonstration of applicability. An optimisation study was carried out to ensure high first-time success rates of analysing reference samples (crude buccal swab lysates) with the ForenSeqTM DNA Signature Prep kit. This entailed systematic adjustments to a direct PCR approach and the development of a lysate purification method. This optimised approach was subsequently used to conduct a population study comprising 463 consenting South African volunteers, wherein the first sequence-based allele frequency data pertaining to autosomal short tandem repeat (A-STR) markers were generated for South African populations. Rich variation was observed, where 80 novel allele sequences were recorded. An increase of 86% was observed in length- to sequence-based allele counts across several A-STR markers, with additional variation recorded in flanking regions. Furthermore, a concordance rate exceeding 99% was achieved. The novel findings and abundance of variation observed in the South African population surpasses that which has been previously characterised on a global scale, warranting further research into characterising sequence data for other forensically relevant markers. The final facet of this study involved the internal validation of the optimised MPS workflow, from sample preparation to sequencing. The workflow was deemed fit for purpose and reported the first performance parameters for post-mortem crude buccal swab lysates. The validated workflow was then applied to a forensic cold case to generate investigative leads from a severely decomposed body, demonstrating the comprehensive capability of the workflow. The synthesis of results obtained in this study have led to key recommendations for under-resourced laboratories to maximise resources for large-scale studies
Energy loss and theoretical uncertainties in small quark-gluon plasmas
Get PDFThere is a wealth of evidence that a Quark Gluon Plasma (QGP) is formed in heavy-ion collisions at RHIC and the LHC. Recently, there have been observations of QGP signatures in much smaller collision systems—including proton proton, and proton heavy-ion collisions—wherein QGP was not expected to form. Experimentally measuring suppression in small systems is more difficult than in large systems, motivating the need for theoretical guidance on the problem. The goal of this thesis is to systematically improve current energy loss models, particularly in how they pertain to small systems. We present a perturbative Quantum Chromodynamics (pQCD) based energy loss model which receives small system size corrections to both the radiative and elastic energy loss, and which takes into account realistic collision geometry, production spectra, and fragmenta-tion. We use the Djordjevic-Gyulassy-Levai-Vitev (DGLV) radiative energy loss model, and include a small system size correction which adds back in previously neglected terms that are suppressed according to the system size. We find that the correction is extremely large for pions at high momenta, which leads us to question the validity of various approxima-tions in the model. We investigate the self- consistency of the various approximations used in the derivation of the Djordjevic-Gyulassy-Levai-Vitev (DGLV) radiative energy loss model, where we find that a particular approximation—the large formation time approximation—is not satisfied self-consistently within the model. We explore a kinematic cutoff on the trans-verse radiated gluon momentum, which restores the self-consistency of this approximation, but at the cost of an increased sensitivity to the exact cutoff chosen. The exploration and quantitative treatment of theoretical uncertainties in the energy loss model is a central theme of this thesis. In the same vein of uncertainty quantification, we investigate the common application of the central limit theorem to approximate the elastic energy loss as a Gaussian distribution. We find that all our results are remarkably insensitive to this approximation, not because we are in the regime of many scatters where the central limit theorem is applicable, but rather understood from an expansion of the RAA in terms of the moments of the underlying energy loss distributions. We also investigate the uncertainty in the elastic energy loss to the crossover between HTL and vacuum propagators. Finally, we perform a one-parameter fit of the strong coupling αs to available large system data from RHIC and LHC, keeping track of all of the aforementioned uncertainties. We find that the uncertainties may largely be absorbed into a different value of the strong coupling αs, but small uncertainty bands remain in any case. We explore differences in the energy loss models that remain even after the fit of the model to data, and find that the different elastic energy losses lead to different pT and system size dependencies. We also plot large-system constrained model results for small p/d/3He + A collisions, where we find that our results are quantitatively consistent with small system data from RHIC and inconsistent with small system data from LHC
Exploring the role of an NPO in the ECD sector: a case study of ELRUs collective society of community stakeholders and staff members within the Cape Flats
No full textThis research delves into the intricate challenges and interconnected dynamics of early childhood development (ECD) within the socio-educational landscape of South Africa, specifically focusing on the Cape Flats area in the Western Province. By examining the work, stakeholders, and operations of the non-profit organization ELRU, this thesis underscores the critical importance of ECD in addressing the broader societal issues stemming from a history marked by colonialism and apartheid. South Africa's educational paradigm remains contested due to its historical legacies that birthed racial segregation and societal disparities. Despite efforts post-apartheid to establish equality, the foundational challenge of education for the very young persists, resulting in adverse implications for the country's future. The central chapters intricately weave ELRU's dynamics with the broader educational landscape, emphasizing class distinctions, economic realities, and symbolic powers within the organization. The narrative mirrors the complexities of the Cape Flats, resonating with historical injustices and aspirations for educational equity. Despite these challenges, the research illuminates ELRU's commitment to early childhood development as a means of counteracting historical wounds through quality education. It underscores the role of empowered women, ethical leadership, and the transformative potential embedded within ECD in nurturing resilient communities. Moreover, the study emphasizes Critical Race Theory (CRT) and Intersectionality as crucial frameworks to challenge oppressive structures and address interconnected societal inequalities, advocating for a comprehensive approach to foster inclusivity and resilience. Opportunities for further research is promoted, including exploring the intricate relationship between memory and pedagogy within ECD, conducting situational analyses in similar socio- challenged regions, and leveraging anthropological tools for deeper insights into NPO-driven ECD interventions. This research underscores the transformative potential of ECD staff and their pivotal role in nurturing equitable societies. It calls for continued efforts to dismantle systemic inequalities and create inclusive educational landscapes for a brighter future in South Africa