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The short- and long-run effect of affirmative action: evidence from Imperial China
No full textWe study the short- and long-term effects of affirmative action policies in the context of China. During imperial China, official positions were awarded to the most academically talented individuals through a multi-stage examination process administered by the central government. In 1712, a reform was implemented to address disparities in exam performance, aiming to equalize acceptance rates across provinces and increase representation from underrepresented regions. Using a unique dataset, we analyze career outcomes and find that more candidates from underrepresented provinces secured positions without compromising their performance after the reform. However, sub-provincial units showed different trends. Although the reform ended in 1905, the gap between underrepresented provinces and others widened again, but some effects of the reform remained. Moreover, the intervention had spillover effects, extending its impact to secondary education
Beyond transactionalism: Germany's role in intra-EU and EU-Turkey cooperation on migration during the Syrian refugee crisis
No full textDrawing on hegemonic stability theory (HST) and accounts of transactionalism, we analyse Germany’s role in EU migration policy in the immediate response to the Syrian refugee crisis in 2015/16. We ask whether Germany followed short- term self-interested considerations in line with transactionalism or whether it acted as a benevolent hegemon both vis-à-vis its European partners and indeed Turkey. A benevolent hegemon is defined as a leader that is ready to create a public good from which its partners benefit as well, and potentially even more than itself. To do so, we study the cases of Germany’s suspension of Dublin III in September 2015, internal EU relocation and the 2016 EU- Turkey Statement. Analysing EU documents, international press, and secondary data, we find that Germany pursued self-interested goals in its crisis response, but also engaged in refugee responsibility-sharing, thus providing the public good of stability to other member states and partly to Turkey. It thus exceeded a purely transactionalist logic and has to some extent acted as a benevolent hegemon
Does CEO inside debt really improve financial reporting quality?
No full textRecent studies conclude that CEO debt-like incentives, such as defined benefit pensions and deferred compensation (“inside debt”), improve financial reporting quality. We challenge this result on conceptual grounds and evaluate its sensitivity to empirical specification. We reexamine the relation between accrual-based measures of financial reporting quality and CEO inside debt variables and find that it is an artifact of correlated omitted factors that prior studies do not effectively control for. Specifically, we show that the relation disappears when we control for factors related to the volatility and uncertainty of firms’ operating environments. Using a two-step approach, we illustrate how the relation between inside debt and accrual-based financial reporting quality measures is driven entirely by the portion of inside debt that is correlated with these factors, rather than a direct effect of inside debt itself. Our findings challenge the prevailing consensus on the incentive effects of inside debt and suggest that prior evidence is likely confounded by omitted variable bias
How did one LSE research centre have real world impact?
No full textDuncan Green looks at the unpredictable but fascinating ways that one of LSE’s many research centres influenced policy, practice and world views. To find out he conducted open-ended interviews with a number of researchers at the Centre for Public Authority and International Development (CPAID). He found that in addition to the quality of the research, the importance of relationship networks, highlighting findings that are surprising/unexpected, and responding to shocks and crises are all crucial to impact
Renegotiating patriarchy, Naila Kabeer’s brilliant magnum opus
No full textDuncan Green reviews a significant new book from one of LSE’s most eminent scholars. He argues that an under-studied aspect of social and political change are the shifts in the tectonic plates of social norms – the ways society and individuals understand what is right and normal. Despite the omnipresent threat of backlash, the normative shifts on gender in recent decades have been remarkable, and Naila Kabeer’s new book brillliantly captures that process in Bangladesh. This is a repost of a From Poverty to Power piece he posted last November
A K-line pattern combinations stock return prediction method using deep deterministic policy gradient
No full textThis paper studies the stock return prediction under specific K-line pattern combinations in the domestic Chinese A-share market. Firstly, derivative factors such as the upper (lower) shadow rate are designed according to the basic stock information and trader psychology. Secondly, the Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient algorithm, reconstructed to adapt to the stock trading market, is applied to build the reinforcement learning framework. Numerical comparison experiments show that the factor combination based on the K-line pattern can obtain higher profit and lower risk than other technical factor combinations. Our newly designed technical factors enable the agent to achieve a substantial amount of abnormal return. Notably, the linearly correlated derived factors do not significantly influence the agent’s decision-making process. Furthermore, a more diverse set of factors with varying significance in the state space led to increased abnormal return for the agent’s decisions
Two-step multilevel latent class analysis in the presence of measurement non-equivalence
No full textWe consider estimation of two-level latent class models for clustered data, when the measurement model for the observed measurement items includes non-equivalence of measurement with respect to some observed covariates. The parameters of interest are coefficients in structural models for the latent classes given covariates. We propose a two-step method of estimation. This extends previously proposed methods of two-step estimation for models without non-equivalence of measurement by specifying the model used in the first step in such a way that it correctly accounts for non-equivalence. The properties of these two-step estimators are examined using simulation studies and an applied example
The antimicrobial resistance cube: a framework for identifying policy gaps and driving action
No full textCrisis management in the pharmaceutical industry during the COVID-19 pandemic
No full textDespite the vulnerabilities of the pharmaceutical industry and its critical role in functioning healthcare systems, no previous crisis management theory–based empirical studies focusing on this field during the COVID-19 pandemic has been published. The present study aims to fill this gap and identify areas for development to improve future crisis preparedness. Organisational crisis management process models provided a theoretical framework. A cross-sectional survey study was conducted during the second wave of the pandemic (October–November 2020). This online survey was developed based on the crisis management process models and sent to managing directors working in the pharmaceutical and wholesale companies (n = 73) in Finland. Descriptive statistics were calculated, and open-field responses were analysed qualitatively using content analysis. Nine semi-structured interviews with industry leaders and managers conducted in March–May 2021 were utilised in data triangulation. The results revealed that crisis preparedness improved concurrently during the pandemic due to increased risk perception, updated preparedness plans and operational changes. Crisis decision-making was made via teams or shared efforts between key persons. Anticipation of and responses to increased demand and stocking, coordination and collaboration among pharmaceutical supply chain stakeholders were identified as key challenges. The study extends crisis management process models to the pharmaceutical industry context and advances this research field by drawing on a novel approach for data collection utilising crisis management process models for survey development. Practical implications for improving future preparedness are suggested
Noisy biodiversity: the impact of ESG biodiversity ratings on asset prices
No full textThe biodiversity components of ESG ratings are analysed to understand whether this disclosure mechanism can affect investment decisions, improve outcomes for biodiversity or lead to better management of nature-based risks. We analyse the relationship between stock returns and firms' biodiversity ratings and how biodiversity ratings are related to firm characteristics. We conclude that biodiversity ratings are largely uncorrelated to firm characteristics other than via firm size, and do not predict stock returns. Analysis of operating performance sheds light on why: returns on assets and profit margins are not affected by biodiversity ratings. Systematic risk, idiosyncratic risk and firm valuation are also not influenced by overall biodiversity performance. The effect is heterogeneous across industries: biodiversity ratings predict negative returns in metals and mining but positive returns in utilities. Further, institutional investors and sell-side analysts ignore biodiversity ratings in their decision-making. A suite of tests suggests that biodiversity as measured in ESG ratings does not provide useful additional information for financial decision makers. It is difficult to see how, on its own at least, the measurement and disclosure of biodiversity via ESG ratings currently helps achieve any target related to biodiversity and nature recovery or improves the management of nature-based risks