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Inference on dynamic spatial autoregressive models with change point detection
No full textWe analyze a varying-coefficient spatial autoregressive model with spatial fixed effects. One salient feature of the model is the incorporation of multiple spatial weight matrices through their linear combinations with varying coefficients, which help solve the problem of choosing the most “correct” one for applied econometricians who often face the availability of multiple expert spatial weight matrices. We estimate and make inferences on the model coefficients and coefficients in basis expansions of the varying coefficients through penalized estimations, establishing the oracle properties of the estimators and the consistency of the overall estimated spatial weight matrix, which can be time-dependent. We further consider two applications of our model in change point detections in spatial autoregressive models, providing theoretical justifications in consistent change point locations estimation and practical implementations. Simulation experiments demonstrate the performance of our proposed methodology, and real data analyses are also carried out
Napoleonic administrative reforms and development in the Italian Mezzogiorno
Get PDFWe study how changes in a country’s administrative hierarchy affect development at the city level. We exploit the 1806 Napoleonic administrative reform implemented in the Kingdom of Naples as a historical experiment to assess whether district capitals endowed with supra-municipal administrative functions gained an urban development premium compared with non-capital cities. We find that district capitals recorded a population growth premium throughout the nineteenth century (1828–1911) and experienced higher industrialization both before and after the Italian unification (1861) compared with non-capital cities. We explain our results through mechanisms related to public goods provision and transport network accessibility
The ‘cost of undoing Europe’ Brexit and the UK textile and apparel industry
No full textBrexit, marked by the UK’s 2021 exit from the Single European Market and Customs Union under the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, offers a unique case of reversing deep economic integration. The reintroduction of non-tariff barriers disrupted UK-EU trade, particularly in the GVC-sensitive textile and apparel (T&A) sector. Using survey data from 1,008 UK firms, this paper explores firm-level consequences, strategic responses, and value chain adjustments. Findings reveal that Brexit severely affected T&A firms and their upstream and downstream linkages. Physical barriers were the most disruptive, driving firms to adjust suppliers, products, and locations. Consequences varied by firm type, with widespread calls for barrier reduction and stronger government support
Trade fragmentation, inflationary pressures and monetary policy
No full textHow does trade fragmentation affect inflationary pressures? What is the response of monetary policy needed to sustain inflation at target? To address these questions, we develop a two-sector, small open-economy model that features imperfect international risk-sharing and household heterogeneity, capturing both the supply-side and demand-side effects of fragmentation. In the model, fragmentation takes the form of import-price increases or a decline in tradable-sector productivity. The sign and magnitude of its impact on inflationary pressures, and the appropriate policy response, depend not only on the direct effect of higher import prices or lower productivity on supply but also, crucially, on how aggregate demand adjusts to lower real incomes. In turn, this depends on the pace of fragmentation (gradual versus front-loaded) and other key structural factors highlighted by the model. We compare outcomes under Taylor-type monetary policy rules to a constrained-efficient allocation
Seasonality in the Anthropocene: on the construction of Southeast Asia’s ‘haze season’
Get PDF‘Seasons of the Anthropocene’ - where human activities interact with biophysical cycles to create recurrent environmental phenomena that are often hazardous - are emerging. This article offers the first problematisation of the emergence of a ‘season of the Anthropocene’. We investigate the ‘haze season’ and its use to describe the almost annually recurrent air pollution in maritime Southeast Asia caused by peatland burning in the region. Analysing over 36,000 news articles published in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore in the last three decades, we demonstrate how ‘haze season’ has gained salience in public discourse, functioning as a heuristic device to structure both adaptation and mitigation behaviours. During polluted months, media coverage emphasises adaptive responses such as staying indoors and mask-wearing, while in clearer months it shifts to mitigative themes such as corporate sustainability, legislation, and diplomacy. We also uncover early signs of desensitisation, evident in satire and humour about haze recurrence, and an emerging preference for interventionist adaptive strategies, such as cloud seeding, which reinforce a crisis narrative and deflect attention from underlying causes of haze. Our findings advance understanding of the political and institutional dynamics shaping environmental ‘seasonalities’ as contingent socio-material assemblages of ecological degradation, fire, and pollution. By conceptualising and empirically tracing how novel seasons are constructed and mobilised in public discourse, we forge a new research agenda of studying ‘seasonality’ in the Anthropocene, as an important lens through which we might better understand these mutually constructive relationships within the biophysical environment
The politics and poetics of waiting: residents' waiting for (not) being relocated in China's urban regeneration
No full textWaiting as a socially constructed way of experiencing time has received increasing attention in various social science disciplines. Yet the nuances of the modalities and implications of waiting in different contexts among different social groups call for further research to scrutinise this particular temporal process. This paper examined how urban residents in Cangxiang Street Historic District, Anyang, a mid-sized city in China, strategically deploy waiting as a form of resistance within the context of local government-led urban regeneration. Grounded in the dual framework of the politics of waiting and the poetics of waiting, this paper shows how institutional conditions, particularly China's ban on forced evictions starting from 2011, have transformed waiting from a stigmatised tacit to an informal ‘right’, or more precisely, a ‘privilege’ unevenly enjoyed by the residents, due to the discrepancy between the central-level policy and the local-level implementation. While the institutional conditions limit residents’ options for resistance strategies, many residents reinterpret their waiting as an act of defiance and economic opportunity, leveraging heritage tourism to intentionally generate income and unintentionally reshape the urban landscape. Residents' creative adaptation while waiting demonstrates how waiting can be productive, future-oriented and empowering. The paper thus argues that the production, transformation and experience of waiting in this case are co-shaped by state and society, embodying a dialectical relationship between state power and subordinate agency. The findings underscore the intertwined nature of the politics and poetics of waiting. Bridging the two dimensions enables us to further investigate the complicated power relations within the social structure through the niche perspective of waiting
Foreign monies and exchange risk in pre-modern maritime private trade - (or why did European bills not circulate outside Europe?)
No full textBy specifying the currency on which returns were to be repaid, respondentia was a ubiquitous financial instrument to carry international trade. Where multiple currencies existed and silver specie was the preferred money, imported silver performed as foreign currency. Thus, the import of foreign coins created issues for prices, profits, and exchange rates. Eighteenth-century Europeans alternatively used respondentia or bills depending on the monetary context, casting a shade of doubt on the inherent efficiency of a cashless means of payment. Until the 1820s, private bills of exchange did not circulate where cash had a premium. Europeans developed means to regulate the price of foreign coins and exchange rates. Elsewhere, respondentia allowed for hedging against exchange risk and propitiated arbitrage profits, giving an advantage over bills. The article documents the global scope of the instrument; it explains the exchange nature of the contract and explores the issues that the respondentia came to solve. It highlights the role of monies of account Europeans used in pricing foreign currencies in international trade
Bridging affordability and sustainability of health innovations via novel pricing, cost-effectiveness, and reimbursement models to improve patient access: the ASCERTAIN project
Get PDFObjectives Disparities in access to potential innovative health technologies (pIHTs) persist across Europe due to differing healthcare budgets, pricing policies, and health technology assessment (HTA) practices. The ASCERTAIN project aims to reduce these inequalities by developing integrated pricing, cost-effectiveness, and reimbursement approaches that enhance affordability, long-term sustainability, and timely patient access. Methods The project applies a mixed-methods approach, including literature review, stakeholder surveys, interviews, and focus groups, to ensure relevance across diverse health systems. It integrates access-based pricing, value-driven HTA, and adaptable reimbursement models into a practical, open-access ACCESS2MEDS Toolbox. This includes access-based pricing frameworks, cost-effectiveness models, and budget impact and reimbursement analyses, all adaptable to country-specific conditions to reduce uncertainty and improve transparency. Tools are co-created with patients, developers, clinicians, and policymakers and will be tested and validated using three use cases representing high-impact areas of innovation: precision oncology medicines, cell and gene therapies, and next-generation sequencing tests. Results Outputs will include validated tools enabling improved evaluation of clinical benefit, cost-effectiveness, and financial sustainability, strengthening value-based decision-making across Europe. Innovative access- and outcome-based pricing strategies will support responsible innovation while encouraging fair reimbursement and improved budget control. Policy roadmaps will guide the adoption of equitable access models and support system-level implementation. Conclusions ASCERTAIN will provide a harmonized framework that balances cost control, innovation incentives, and patient-centered care. By facilitating consistent, evidence-based pricing and reimbursement decisions, the project supports fair and sustainable access to pIHTs across Europe, with continued multi-stakeholder collaboration driving its wider adoption and real-world impact. Public interest abstract Many lifesaving medical breakthroughs, like advanced cancer therapies and gene treatments, are becoming available, but not everyone in Europe can access them equally. Differences in healthcare funding and pricing decisions mean that patients in some countries wait much longer for the care they need. The ASCERTAIN project is working to change this. By bringing together patients, health technology developers, clinicians, and policymakers, the project is creating new tools to help health systems decide how to pay for cutting-edge technologies in a fair and affordable way. These tools also make sure that these technologies are paid for based on how well they work for patients in real life. By improving transparency and reducing financial pressure on health services, ASCERTAIN aims to ensure that people across Europe benefit from innovative technologies sooner, supporting healthier lives and a more sustainable future for healthcare
A brief observation on the relationship between antecedent status and reviewing incentives
Get PDFIt is often believed that academics are especially harsh in their evaluation of work that critiques their own ideas. I dispute that claim. Rather, I say, consideration of the credit incentives for academics reviewing critique of their own work should lead us to expect them to typically be particularly generous to critique of their own work
Stereotype or reality? A genuine review of millennials’ career perspectives
Get PDFPurpose This paper aims to review existing research on the career attitudes, values and behaviors of the Millennial generation (born approximately between 1981 and 1996) to differentiate how research evidence confirms or contradicts the stereotypes of Millennials based on their coverage in the popular press. Design/methodology/approach The authors conducted an integrative literature review comprising 102 studies published between 2004 and 2025 that were published in peer-reviewed journals of sufficiently high quality. Findings The authors present out findings based on five main themes: career success; career development, patterns and progressions; work-life interface; career-relevant individual differences; and contextual influences on Millennials’ careers, including the global financial crisis of 2008 and the Covid-19 pandemic. What is found largely questions the stereotype of Millennials as being lazy, self-interested job-hoppers. Instead, the authors find that they are committed to work but with a strong sense of work-life balance. Practical implications Millennials represent three-quarters of the global workforce in 2025 and are increasingly in leadership positions. Understanding their careers helps others working with them as employees and/or managers. Generational stereotypes have staying power and can contribute to intergenerational conflict; having a perspective based on research evidence provides a more nuanced perspective. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first literature review of research on Millennials that specifically focuses on understanding their careers attitudes, values and behaviors. This study complements existing reviews on Millennials at work