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    The policy adjacent: how affordable housing generates policy feedback among neighboring residents

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    While scholars have documented feedback effects among a policy's direct winners and losers, less is known about whether such effects can occur among the indirectly affected—“the policy adjacent.” Using 458 geocoded housing developments built between two nearly identical statewide ballot propositions funding affordable housing in California, we show that policy generates feedback effects among neighboring residents in systematic ways. New, nearby affordable housing causes majority‐homeowner blocks to increase their support for the housing bond, while majority‐renter blocks decrease or do not change their support. We attribute the positive effect among majority‐homeowner blocks to the housing's replacement of blight. In contrast, the lack of a positive effect among majority‐renter blocks may be driven by the threat of gentrification. Policy implementation can win support for expansion among unexpected beneficiaries, while failing to do so even among the policy's presumed allies

    The role of vaccination roll-out in the monitoring of Covid-19 pandemic spread: a country-level quantitative study

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    Early detection of contagion surge phases that could potentially mark the beginning of new waves is crucial to monitor the pandemic development and to define proper health policies. The potential availability of reliable covariates can effectively support the monitoring of the pandemic development and provide early warning signals. This paper combines epidemic surge detection with the study of the role of vaccination roll-out, by improving and enhancing the methodology introduced by Agosto and Cerchiello (2024). A covariate-augmented version of the BSADF test for the detection of explosive patterns in time series, named CBSADF test, is used to identify whether the time series of the effective reproduction number moves to explosive behavior, indicating a potential upcoming wave, conditioned on the evolution of the vaccination roll-out. By applying our method to a representative set of European countries, we show that the model can effectively identify upcoming exponential increases in the effective reproduction number and the interplay with the vaccination roll-out

    The ocean is our greatest ally in mitigating climate change, but overusing it as climate “solution” could be counterproductive

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    We need forest-like governance, financing, and enforcement to ensure its future, argues Francisco de Melo Viríssim

    Kalecki y la visión estructuralista del desarrollo económico

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    This paper commemorates the 70th anniversary of Kalecki’s seminal lecture in Mexico on financing economic development. The first part outlines the theoretical model underlying Kalecki’s view of development financing. The second part summarizes the foundations of structuralist development economics in the Pre-bisch-Singer approach to international trade and importsubstitution development strategies. The third part examines the confrontation between Kalecki’s view of economic development strategy and the structuralist approach in the case of Cuba, highlighting the differences between both perspectives. The fourth part concludes with some reflections on today's relevance of structuralism and Kalecki’s view of economic development

    The effect of retirement on cardiovascular disease: evidence from European countries

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    Objectives Retirement marks a pivotal life stage for many individuals. As older adults transition into retirement, changes in lifestyle, income, and social networks can significantly influence their health and well-being. This study investigates the short-, medium-, and long-term relationship between retirement and cardiovascular disease (CVD), which is one of the most commonly diagnosed conditions among older adults. Methods Using individual-level data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we employed a Fixed Effects Instrumental Variable (FE-IV) approach to estimate the impact of retirement on CVD and to further explore the underlying mechanisms and potential heterogeneity in these effects. Results Our findings suggest that within 2 years of retirement, there is an increase in the probability of having a heart attack, but retirement does not exert a significant impact on heart attacks in the medium and longer term. We found no evidence that changes in metabolic or behavioral risk factors account for this short-term increase in cardiovascular risk. Although retirement is associated with a decline in mental health, our results show that this pathway explains only a very small proportion of the observed effect on heart attacks. Discussion The rise in CVD incidence underscores the importance of monitoring individuals during the transition out of the labor force, particularly among groups that appear more vulnerable, such as women, individuals with lower levels of education, and blue-collar workers. These findings also emphasize the need to reconsider the mechanisms through which retirement influences health

    Diaconis–Ylvisaker prior penalized likelihood for / → ∈ (0,1) logistic regression

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    Scaling laws for function diversity and specialization across socioeconomic and biological complex systems

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    Function diversity, the range of tasks individuals perform, and specialization, the distribution of function abundances, are fundamental to complex adaptive systems. In the absence of overarching principles, these properties have appeared domain-specific. Here, we introduce an empirical framework and a mathematical model for the diversification and specialization of functions across disparate systems, including bacteria, federal agencies, universities, corporations, and cities. We find that the number of functions grows sublinearly with system size, with exponents from 0.35 to 0.57, consistent with Heaps’ law. In contrast, cities exhibit logarithmic scaling. To explain these empirical findings, we generalize the Yule-Simon model by introducing two key parameters: a diversification parameter that characterizes how existing functions inhibit the creation of new ones and a specialization parameter that describes how a function’s attractiveness depends on its abundance. Our model enables cross-system comparisons, from microorganisms to metropolitan areas. The analysis suggests that what drives the creation of new functions depends on the system’s goals and structure: federal agencies tend to ensure comprehensive coverage of necessary functions; cities tend to slow the creation of new occupations as existing ones expand; and cells occupy an intermediate position. Once functions are introduced, their growth follows a remarkably universal pattern across all systems

    The new Pact for the Mediterranean: a rebrand or something more?

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    A new Pact for the Mediterranean was launched by the EU and southern neighbourhood countries on 28 November. Emanuele Errichiello writes that despite the fanfare of the launch, the Pact looks more like a rearticulation of the EU’s existing approach than a genuine paradigm shift

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