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What is the case fatality rate of smallpox?
Get PDFThis paper uses population smallpox mortality rates in eighteenth-century Sweden and the death toll from the 1707–09 smallpox epidemic in Iceland to estimate plausible ranges for the case fatality rate (CFR) of smallpox (Variola major). We find that smallpox CFRs could be extremely high (43–55 per cent) when smallpox attacked a population where both children and adults were susceptible, as in Iceland. However, where smallpox was endemic and therefore a disease of childhood, as in Sweden, the estimated CFR is only 8–10 per cent: far lower than the consensus CFR of 20–30 per cent. We argue that social factors explain these differences. Where both adults and children were susceptible, smallpox epidemics fundamentally disrupted basic household tasks and nursing of the sick, dramatically increasing the CFR. Thus, when historians and epidemiologists give CFRs for smallpox, they should consider the population and context rather than relying on an implausible intrinsic CFR of 20–30 per cent
The assignment of intellectual property rights and innovation
Get PDFWe study how the assignment of intellectual property rights between inventors and their employers affects innovation. Incomplete contracting theories predict that stronger employer property rights reduce the threat that employee inventors hold up their employers, thereby affecting inventor and invention outcomes. We test these predictions using a U.S. appellate court ruling that shifted the assignment of property rights from inventors to their employers. Within-employer-year analyses demonstrate that affected inventors are less likely to retain patent rights, assign patents to new employers, or leave their current employer, all consistent with reduced inventor ability to hold up their employers. Due to the reduced possibility of hold-up, affected inventors’ innovations are revealed more promptly when disclosed, draw from a broader set of prior patents, and spread more to subsequent patents. If affected inventors do leave their employer, they are more likely to relocate to unaffected states. Furthermore, employers affected by the ruling are more likely to locate their inventors in agglomeration economies and alter their innovation strategy by reallocating activity across states and expanding their innovation portfolios. Our collective evidence suggests that shifting intellectual property rights to employers affects inventor and invention outcomes by reducing the threat of employee hold-up from the employer's perspective
Regular matchstick graphs on the sphere
No full textWe show that the 5-regular matchstick graphs on the sphere are exactly the five 5-regular contact graphs of congruent caps on the sphere found by R. M. Robinson (1969)
Did increasing the UK’s Universal Credit and working tax credits by £20 per week in 2020–2021 reduce food insecurity?
No full textThis paper evaluates the UK Government’s decision to increase the main form of social security by £20 per week during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, exploring whether increasing the generosity of social security for some, but not all, claimants affected food insecurity. Using the Family Resources Survey, we found a decline of about 7 percentage points in food insecurity amongst benefit claimants affected by the uplift compared with claimants not affected (95% CI −13.9 to −0.9%). This association did not change substantively following adjustment for covariates, nor when the model was re-estimated using matching methods. Results were not driven by changes in the composition of claimants over time. These analyses suggest food insecurity could be reduced if the generosity of the social security system increased. In actuality, the UK government went in the opposite direction, removing the £20 uplift in October 2021, potentially exposing claimants to higher rates of food insecurity again
Is a forbidden fruit as sweet tomorrow as it feels now? Consumer intention-behavior gap at the times of major crises
No full textThe paper develops a theoretical framework using the systems approach to explain the intention-behavior gap (IBG) at crisis times. It analyzes in-crisis and post-crisis consumer mental frames by integrating concepts from marketing science, behavioral economics, and social psychology. It interprets the role and effect of temporal discounting and compensatory consumption on the subjective expected utility of goods and services shaping post-crisis consumption intentions. The primary in-crisis study across four countries and post-crisis publicly available data support main research outcomes. The paper cohesively explains post-crisis actual consumer behaviors, leading to an understanding of IBG and their consequences applicable to major crises
Foot soldiers of the pandemic: the role of frontline health workers in building community healthcare resilience in rural Karnataka
No full textRecent crises have affected the health and well-being of rural communities in many low-and-middle income countries (LMICs) focusing attention on building resilience to better withstand and recover from shocks. Drawing on an institutional perspective, this paper analyses how the role, function and participation of frontline health workers in rural India in the years prior to COVID-19 have shaped the conduct of village health governance structures during and in the aftermath of the pandemic. Our study combines observational data from village health committees in Karnataka with rich narrative accounts from health workers. We showcase the historical influences that have shaped the functioning of village health committees to sustain both routine health priorities and COVID-19 activities before, during and in the aftermath of the pandemic. Our study holds broader implications for how the actions of frontline health workers may lead to building community healthcare resilience
Time preferences and COVID-19 vaccination uptake
No full textIn the evolving COVID-19 endemic phase, the emergence of new variants and viruses may necessitate renewed efforts to control their spread. Understanding how individual preferences and attitudes influence vaccination behavior is crucial in preparation for this. This paper presents results from a multi-country online survey conducted in 22 countries between July 2022 and June 2023. The survey elicited individuals’ time preferences (discount rate and present bias) implementing choice list methodology and explored respondents’ behaviors and attitudes for vaccination using respectively revealed and stated preferences data through a Discrete Choice Experiment. Respondents were classified as vaccine accepters (one or more COVID-19 doses at the time of the data collection), hesitant (willing to get the vaccine if given conditions are met) and refuser (no intention to get the vaccine). Overall, we found no evidence of a present bias, but substantial variation in discount rate between respondents across different countries. Minimal differences between revealed and stated preferences data were found. Hesitant respondents revealed larger discount rates compared to the vaccinated respondents, indicating a stronger preference for immediate outcomes. On the contrary, refusers showed lower discount rates, indicating stronger preferences for future outcomes. The high discount rate of the hesitant group may result in a low weight given to the consequences of a future COVID-19 infection. Hence, policymakers could specifically target hesitant people to make the long-term advantages of COVID-19 vaccinations, in terms of reduced infection probability and lower disease severity in case of infection, more salient, or to focus more on the short-term benefits of vaccination, for instance by stressing the improved access it may bring to social events and the reduced chances of getting sick
The quandary of caste for Sikhs in the UK
No full textTaking as a starting point the vacillating support for the legislation on caste discrimination in the United Kingdom offered by a variety of Sikh organisations, whilst scholarly studies have noted the continuing mark of caste on the sociality of Sikhs in the diaspora, this chapter delves into likely explanations for the reticent stance taken by Sikh deniers of casteism. Chronologically locating three moments of the Sikhs’ confrontation with caste in the recent past, and through seven new case studies, the Hinduisation of Sikhi, the culturalisation of caste, and the failure to combat caste consciousness explicitly are presented as the causes for the quandary of caste for Sikhs in the United Kingdom
Adolescents’ relationships with their parents and peers as mediators between economic circumstances and emotional symptoms: a multicountry longitudinal analysis
No full textObjective Adolescents’ social relationships might partly explain the increased risk of mental health problems in adolescents living in poorer economic circumstances. There are few studies in low- and middle-income countries where most of the world’s adolescents live. We investigated whether adolescents’ relationships with their parents and peers mediated the association between their economic circumstances and emotional symptoms in Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam. Method We analyzed longitudinal data of 3,529 adolescents from the Young Lives study (1,741 female [49.3%]). Household consumption expenditure and adolescents’ subjective assessment of household wealth were measured at age 15. The mediators – adolescents’ positive relations with their parents and peers – were measured at age 19. The outcome – emotional symptoms, characterized by low mood and anxiety – was measured at age 22. Mediation was assessed through counterfactual g-computation formula, adjusting for baseline and intermediate confounders. Results We found no evidence that adolescents’ positive relations with their parents or peers mediated the association between economic circumstances and emotional symptoms in any country. Living in poorer economic circumstances was typically associated with more severe emotional symptoms. Conclusion Adolescents’ parent and peer relationships might not mediate the effects of poorer economic circumstances on emotional symptoms in these countries, contrasting with previous studies that highlight an important role in high-income countries. Further research is needed that addresses our study limitations and to also explore other potential mechanisms, including different aspects of social relationships, that might influence mental health outcomes for adolescents living in poverty across different settings