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Estimating the ovarian cancer CA-125 preclinical detectable phase, in-vivo tumour doubling time, and window for detection in early stage: an exploratory analysis of UKCTOCS
No full textBackground: The ovarian cancer (OC) preclinical detectable phase (PCDP), defined as the interval during which cancer is detectable prior to clinical diagnosis, remains poorly characterised. We report exploratory analyses from the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Methods: In UKCTOCS between Apr-2001 and Sep-2005, 101,314 postmenopausal women were randomised to no screening (NS) and 50,625 to annual multimodal screening (MMS) (until Dec-2011) using serum CA-125 interpreted by the Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm (ROCA). All provided a baseline blood sample. Women with invasive epithelial OC diagnosed between randomisation and trial censorship (Dec-2014) in the MMS and NS arms with two or more CA-125 measurements, including one within two years of diagnosis were included. OC-free women (2:1 to cases) from the MMS arm provided information on baseline CA-125 distribution. CA-125 measurements were obtained from MMS results, secondary analysis of baseline samples, and medical records. PCDP duration and in-vivo tumour doubling time were estimated using the change-point model underlying ROCA. Early-stage (Stage I and II) PCDP was estimated from a Bayesian model for the probability of early stage given a CA-125 measurement. Findings: Of 541 women (2371 CA-125 measurements) with high-grade serous cancer (HGSC), 93% (504/541) secreted CA-125 into the circulation. Median CA-125 PCDP duration for clinically-diagnosed HGSC was 15.2 (IQR 13.1–16.9, 95% IPR 9.6–21.8) months, of which 11.9 (IQR 10.5–13.1, 95% IPR 7.5–16.5) months was in early stage. The median HGSC in-vivo tumour doubling time for cancers secreting CA-125 was 2.9 (IQR 2.3–3.7, 95% IPR 1.5–7.6) months. Interpretation: We report a comprehensive characterisation of the OC CA-125 PCDP. The 12-month window for early-stage detection and short tumour doubling time of HGSC provide a benchmark for researchers evaluating novel screening approaches including need to reduce diagnostic workup interval. Equally the findings provide urgent impetus for clinicians to reduce intervals from presentation to treatment onset. Funding: NCI Early Detection Research Network, Concord (MA) Detect Ovarian Cancer Early Fund, MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL Core Funding
Empirical perspectives on legal obligation and group membership: “we are ruling over you, but you are part of this we…”
No full textThe legitimacy of legal institutions, particularly the police, has consistently been linked to questions of obligation and compliance. According to procedural justice theory, when the police enforce the law in normatively appropriate ways, consensual rather than coercive policing bolsters not only their own legitimacy, but also that of the law. On this account, procedural justice promotes compliance by fostering a sense of trust, shared group membership and endeavour, whereby being law-abiding is a central part of one’s identity and self-definition. Yet, other aspects of police behaviour, and other aspects of people’s relationships with police, also promote legitimacy and motivate behaviours in relation to the law. In this chapter, we ask what it is precisely about people’s relationships with police that promotes legal obligation. We argue that legal obligation is partly shaped by consensual policing practices that encourage people to allow legal authorities to “call the shots”. This means (a) conceding and authorising the right to make orders and decisions, and (b) opening oneself up to the risk attached to engaging with police. In providing examples of the empirical processes in play here, we also seek to make links to normative accounts of the importance of fairness and the reasons why people should obey the police and legal authorities
Countering authoritarian behavior in democracies
No full textDemocratic stability hinges on voters’ commitment to democratic norms, yet there are many examples of voters’ willingness to tolerate politicians who violate such principles. This article examines whether critical responses by other politicians can effectively counter the appeal of political candidates who have engaged in authoritarian behavior. We argue that costly action by fellow partisan politicians can reduce the electoral popularity of authoritarian politicians. We test this in a preregistered conjoint experiment embedded in a nationally representative survey in the United Kingdom. The results show that voters are less likely to choose politicians displaying authoritarian behavior, when they are criticized by other legislators, and that such counteractions are particularly effective when they are costly. These findings have important implications, as they show that politicians, especially co-partisans, can play an important role in reducing the appeal of authoritarian politicians
Law, time and (in)justice after empire: Germany’s objection to colonial reparations and the chronopolitics of deflection
No full textDebates on reparations for colonial atrocities highlight the relationship between international law, political time, and (in)justice. This paper examines Germany's foreclosure of reparation claims raised by descendants of survivors of its 1904–8 colonial genocide. The analysis draws on parliamentary interpellation records (1989–2021) around the question of German reparations to Namibia's Ovaherero and Nama. I argue that Germany mobilizes temporal rules of international law, especially the non-retroactivity of the Genocide Convention, to deflect from such claims. This strategy first confines the political question of colonial reparations to the international legal realm, only to then invalidate it via the temporal rule of law's non-retroactivity. I argue that this strategy enables a ‘chronopolitics of deflection’, by which Germany has pointed away from colonial reparations while directing attention to development assistance payments to Namibia. The paper relates these findings to theories of political time, arguing that Germany's reliance on the non-retroactivity of the Genocide Convention yields what I call a ‘projection of history as normatively temporalized time’. The paper concludes with critiques of the relationship between international law and colonial reparations, arguing that current invocations of inter-temporal and non-retroactive international law implicitly reiterate colonial law, thereby locking in place an unjust legal past
Estimating the economic impacts for caregivers of young people with mental health problems in a Brazilian cohort
No full textObjectives: To assess the indirect economic impacts on caregivers resulting from mental health problems in their children and to explore the association with characteristics of the young people and their caregivers. Methods: Data from 1158 caregivers of young people aged 14 to 23 years with mental health problems in a Brazilian cohort were analyzed. We assessed productivity losses, additional household tasks, out-of-pocket expenses, and own healthcare utilization because of the young person's mental health problems over the past 6 months. The costs of productivity losses and household tasks were estimated in terms of caregivers’ earnings. Logistic regression models identified factors associated with reported impacts. Generalized linear models evaluated clinical and caregiver characteristics associated with the economic impact on caregivers. Results: Nearly 40% of caregivers (n = 458) experienced economic impacts because of mental health issues in their children over the previous 6 months. The total economic impact among these 458 caregivers who reported incurring costs amounted to half of their earnings, and this was consistent across socioeconomic groups. Factors associated with reporting impacts differed from those affecting their costs. Externalizing and comorbid diagnoses, service use, higher impairment, and female caregivers increased the likelihood of impacts, whereas the greatest economic impacts were associated with internalizing conditions and service use. Conclusions: Though these findings need to be interpreted with caution because of inherent limitations, they underscore the substantial economic impacts borne by caregivers of young people with mental health problems, suggesting the need for targeted policy interventions to promote equitable caregiving and provide more comprehensive childcare support
Annual budgets and rolling budgets use in UK and Australian firms
No full textThe purposes and uses of annual budgets have been questioned for decades. The meta-reporting and analysis of operational budget trends outside North America have been sparse and academically under-reported in the past 20 years. Innovations such as the rolling budget have challenged and/or supplemented traditional annual budgets, while organisations increasingly demand more flexible budgeting approaches. Our research examines the current state of budgeting practice relating to both rolling and annual budgets across a surveyed sample of 380 UK and Australian firms. We find that despite concerns about its applicability, the annual budget overwhelmingly remains a critical planning and control tool, but functions as a performance evaluation tool to a lesser extent. Nearly a third of firms use rolling budgets, for various reasons including planning and control, aligning with annual budgets. These findings hold across business-as-usual operations, not only during economic crises. We find that of the firms using annual and rolling budgets, 75 percent indicated they are equally important, with both budgeting forms used jointly rather than as substitutes. This is an important contribution not reported in prior literature
An update-and-stabilize framework for the minimum-norm-point problem
No full textWe consider the minimum-norm-point (MNP) problem over polyhedra, a well-studied problem that encompasses linear programming. We present a general algorithmic framework that combines two fundamental approaches for this problem: active set methods and first order methods. Our algorithm performs first order update steps, followed by iterations that aim to ‘stabilize’ the current iterate with additional projections, i.e., find a locally optimal solution whilst keeping the current tight inequalities. Such steps have been previously used in active set methods for the nonnegative least squares (NNLS) problem. We bound on the number of iterations polynomially in the dimension and in the associated circuit imbalance measure. In particular, the algorithm is strongly polynomial for network flow instances. Classical NNLS algorithms such as the Lawson–Hanson algorithm are special instantiations of our framework; as a consequence, we obtain convergence bounds for these algorithms. Our preliminary computational experiments show promising practical performance
Jury theorems for peer review
No full textPeer review is often taken to be the main form of quality control on academic research. Usually journals carry this out. However, parts of maths and physics appear to have a parallel, crowd-sourced model of peer review, where articles are posted on the arXiv to be publicly discussed. In this article we argue that crowd-sourced peer review is likely to do better than journal-solicited peer review at sorting articles by quality. Our argument rests on two key claims. First, crowd-sourced peer review will lead on average to more reviewers per article than journal-solicited peer review. Second, due to the wisdom of the crowds, more reviewers will tend to make better judgements than fewer reviewers will. We make the second claim precise by looking at the Condorcet jury theorem as well as two related jury theorems developed specifically to apply to peer review
Locating men in sexual and reproductive health, rights, and justice: past, present, futures
No full textSince the International Conference on Population and Development in 1994, global policies, and agenda‐setting milestones have emphasized that universal sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR) are unattainable without the meaningful engagement and inclusion of men. Despite this, the field of SRHR continues to struggle with how and in what ways men can and should be included in research, programs, and policies. In this commentary, we argue that the programmatic focus of SRHR limits the capacity to produce the data and evidence needed to inform gender transformational change. For men to be meaningfully engaged with by SRHR, researchers need an analytic lens that can capture the manifestations and outcomes of gender and power. We consider the conceptual complementarities between two theoretical frameworks: hegemonic masculinities and Reproductive Justice. We contend that bringing together these conceptual approaches to men and SRHR offers an analytic framework to iterate and innovate approaches to research. Such changes will allow for a greater interrogation of gender and power and the production of data and evidence necessary to grapple with the ongoing injustices that curtail people's sexual and reproductive freedoms
High stakes in the bazaar: cryptocurrency trading as a game of chance in Istanbul
No full textThis article examines cryptocurrency trading in Turkey, focusing on the ‘gamblification’ of this emerging market. Based on 18 months of ethnographic research (2021-2022) conducted during an economic crisis exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the research reveals how Turks engaged with cryptocurrencies are considering the structural parallels between trading and gambling. The article also incorporates the perspective of Turkey's Directorate for Religious Affairs (Diyanet), which has declared cryptocurrency trading impermissible, highlighting the tension between contemporary financial practices and traditional Islamic frameworks. The article links the perception of cryptocurrency trading as a modern game of chance, as articulated by research participants, to Turkey's economic instability and their technological shift from traditional state-regulated games of chance (lotteries, betting on sports, and horse racing) to cryptocurrency trading. My ethnographic method brings new empirical data and qualitative analysis to understand the cultural and religious dynamics shaping this emergent financial phenomenon in the under-studied context of Turkey. I argue that cryptocurrency adoption in Turkey is driven by more than economic necessity; it reflects a cultural transformation valuing modernity and innovation. Many Turks view cryptocurrency as a viable alternative to traditional financial systems and a representation of the future of money. This shift signifies a departure from conventional monetary practices and reflects a collective idealisation of the future of finance. The article thus illuminates how Turkish individuals navigate risk and speculation during economic crises, demonstrating their adaptability in engaging with non-monetary financial markets