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Representation, peer pressure and punishment in a public goods game
No full textIn our repeated public goods experiment, randomly chosen representatives make decisions on contributions and punishment for both themselves and their team. Confirming previous findings, punishment prevents the decline to the zero-contribution Nash Equilibrium. With punishment, contributions range from 50 to 80%, compared to approximately 30% without it. We also observe a nuanced interplay between hierarchical decision-making and punishment on public good provision. Compared to self-representation, the positive contribution trend is less pronounced when representatives govern the entire team, especially when non-representatives cannot signal preferences, resulting in contributions plateauing around 50% of the endowment
The nature of long-term unemployment: predictability, heterogeneity and selection
No full textThis paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) using rich administrative data from Sweden. We establish substantial heterogeneity in LTU risk across individuals, accounting for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity using a wide range of observable predictors and multiple-spell outcomes, respectively. We apply our prediction algorithm to study the dynamics of job finding over the unemployment spell and the business cycle. Selection effects can explain most of the decline in average job finding over the unemployment spell but little of its cyclicality. We also find sizable heterogeneity in the profiles of job finding over the unemployment spell but not over the business cycle
Unstable pay: new estimates of earnings volatility in the UK
No full textThis report uses a newly available dataset – payroll data held by HM Revenue and Customs on over 250,000 working-age people covering April 2014 to March 2019 – to look at monthly and weekly volatility in employee pre-tax earnings. It is one of a very few UK studies to look at high-frequency earnings volatility on a large scale, and the first do so on a sample that is representative of the population of employees in the UK. Earnings volatility will not pose problems for all workers (for example, if erratic earnings are the minority of a household’s income, or if they are the side effect of being able to take shifts that fit around other parts of a worker’s life). But unpredictable earnings can mean financial stress, difficulty planning for the future, and increased reliance on credit or social support. So understanding earnings volatility is crucial for building fairer labour markets, effective social policies, and financial security in an uncertain world
Neural correlates of the uncanny valley effect for robots and hyper-realistic masks
No full textViewing artificial objects and images that are designed to appear human can elicit a sense of unease, referred to as the ‘uncanny valley’ effect. Here we investigate neural correlates of the uncanny valley, using still images of androids (robots designed to look human), and humans wearing hyper-realistic silicone masks, as well as still images of real humans, in two experiments. In both experiments, human-like stimuli were harder to distinguish from real human faces than stimuli that were clearly not designed to mimic humans but contain facial features (mechanical robots and Halloween masks). Stimulus evoked potentials (electromagnetic brain responses) did not show convincing differences between faces and either androids or realistic masks when using traditional univariate statistical tests. However, a more sensitive multivariate analysis identified two regions of above-chance decoding, indicating neural differences in the response between human faces and androids/realistic masks. The first time window was around 100–200 ms post stimulus onset, and most likely corresponds to low-level image differences between conditions. The second time window was around 600 ms post stimulus onset, and may reflect top-down processing, and may correspond to the subjective sense of unease characteristic of the uncanny valley effect. Objective neural components might be used in future to rapidly train generative artificial intelligence systems to produce more realistic images that are perceived as natural by human observers
On Markovian sufficient statistics in non-additive disorder problems for jump-diffusion processes
No full textWe study the Bayesian problems of quickest (online) detection of unknown changes in the probabilistic characteristics of continuously observable jump-diffusion processes with the non-additive detection delay penalty criteria proposed by Shiryaev [49]. The reward functionals of the Bayesian risks are expressed through the current states of the multidimensional jump-diffusion processes playing the role of Markovian sufficient statistics in the appropriate optimal stopping problems. We derive stochastic differential equations for the components of the resulting multi-dimensional Markov processes and discuss possible extensions of the results to the case of observable discontinuous processes with stationary and independent increments forming natural exponential families
Socio-economic status is a social construct with heritable components and genetic consequences: a social construct with heritable components and genetic consequences
No full textIn civilizations, individuals are born into or sorted into different levels of socio-economic status (SES). SES clusters in families and geographically, and is robustly associated with genetic effects. Here we first review the history of scientific research on the relationship between SES and heredity. We then discuss recent findings in genomics research in light of the hypothesis that SES is a dynamic social construct that involves genetically influenced traits that help in achieving or retaining a socio-economic position, and can affect the distribution of genes associated with such traits. Social stratification results in people with differing traits being sorted into strata with different environmental exposures, which can result in evolutionary selection pressures through differences in mortality, reproduction and non-random mating. Genomics research is revealing previously concealed genetic consequences of the way society is organized, yielding insights that should be approached with caution in pursuit of a fair and functional society
Submerged: surfacing deep poverty during permacrisis
No full textThis article surfaces the ‘hidden injuries’ of deepening privation that are often occluded through prevailing modes of poverty analysis. We do so by drawing on qualitative longitudinal, ethnographic research to examine what bearing permacrisis has had on the everyday survival strategies, sociality and health of those on the lowest incomes in the UK. Focusing on the experiences retained and recovered through a more inclusive sampling, recruitment and retention strategy, we evidence distinctive features of deep poverty and demonstrate how those worst affected by the ‘slow violence’ of necropolitical governance and class restructuring are also those most likely to fall outwith the sociological gaze and research process. Attending to the empirical problem and theoretical potential of absence in poverty research, we reflect on the corpus of experience we tend to centre in sociological analysis and the corpus of experience that is often left behind in the process
There's a problem with how we measure fuel poverty
No full textNumerous households live in homes that are too cold for their physical and mental health and well-being. But the way we measure fuel poverty across the UK varies wildly, making policymaking solutions harder to come by. Abigail McKnight argues that we need a better way of measuring fuel poverty if we are to tackle it
The Janus-faced geopolitics of the EU's eastern enlargement
No full textTeona Giuashvili asks whether the EU’s enlargement process could be derailed by the same geopolitical forces that revived it in 2022 and calls for strong security commitments to Ukraine and other candidate countries