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Latent profile analyses of explanations about the origins of SARS-CoV-2 within and across countries
Get PDFResearch on belief endorsement typically estimates an average mean value to describe all individuals even though groups of individuals can have coexisting beliefs within the mind. This study employed a person-centered approach based on latent profile analysis (LPA) to investigate within- and between-population variation in the endorsement patterns of multiple explanations for the origin of SARS-CoV-2, including zoonotic, human-made, and supernatural explanations, across eleven countries. Results revealed seven latent profiles that varied in the number and type of explanations endorsed, as well as the degree of certainty associated with each. Among demographic characteristics, political orientation and religious affiliation predict whether particular types of explanations are endorsed or rejected. Latent profiles characterized by explanatory uncertainty and endorsement of conspiratorial explanations were less likely to wear masks and get vaccinated. We discuss the implications of person-centered analytical approaches for documenting variations in explanation endorsement and as predictors of behavioral health outcomes
The limits of Trump's peace efforts in Southeast Asia
Get PDFIn this article, Marcus Andreopoulos examines the renewed hostilities between Thailand and Cambodia, arguing that the unravelling of a fragile peace deal overseen by President Trump exposes the limits of his peace-making credentials. Not only did Thailand’s suspension of the truce in November undo Trump’s efforts over the preceding month to end the conflict, but Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s declaration that he does not ‘care about trade and tariff negotiations’ was a direct challenge to the tariff pressure that has become Trump’s preferred tool for ‘ending’ conflicts
US politics in 2026: Trump abroad, America turns 250 and the midterm elections
Get PDFFrom preventing another government shutdown to trump’s State of the Union and international meetings and the 2026 midterm elections, USAPP Managing Editor, Chris Gilson gives an overview of what to look out for in US politics in 2026
Does global value chain participation matter for economic upgrading? A nonlinear insight
Get PDFIn recent decades, global value chains (GVCs) have come to dominate much of world trade. Participation in GVCs is widely regarded as a key driver of development by enabling countries to climb the value‐added ladder. However, tighter governance structures within GVCs can make these benefits uncertain. This paper investigates the dynamic impact of GVC participation on economic upgrading using a semiparametric smooth coefficient model with panel data from 62 countries over 1995–2018. We uncover a novel N‐shaped nonlinear relationship between GVC participation and economic upgrading, extending beyond the linear or U‐shaped patterns found in earlier research. This relationship reveals three stages: initial learning with rising upgrading effects, an intermediate ‘upgrading trap’ with declining effects, and an advanced breakthrough stage with renewed rise. Decomposing transmission mechanisms shows that while GVC participation imposes output efficiency costs, it enhances upgrading by improving input factor productivities. Critically, forward linkage participation proves more effective than backward linkage for escaping the upgrading trap. Middle‐income countries exhibit the strongest internal input factor efficiency gains from GVC participation alongside the highest dispersion in overall outcomes. These findings offer policy insights for designing openness and industry policies tailored to a country's development stage and GVC position
Implementing cancer medicines on the WHO Model Lists of Essential Medicines Into National Systems
No full textHuman traffickers are using football dreams to lure young Ghanaian men to Nigeria: how to stop this
No full textFor a young man growing up in Ghana or Nigeria, few dreams burn brighter than becoming a professional footballer. Icons like Michael Essien (Ghana), Jay-Jay Okocha (Nigeria) and Nwankwo Kanu (Nigeria) didn’t just win trophies. They escaped poverty, provided for their families, and earned the respect of entire communities. Football, in much of west Africa, isn’t just a sport. It is a promise
Institutional survival in an era of contestation: the survival of international organizations: institutional responses to existential challenges / Hylke Dijkstra, Laura von Allwörden, Leonard Schütte and Giuseppe Zaccaria. - Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2025
No full textThe Survival of International Organizations: Institutional Responses to Existential Challenges, by Hylke Dijkstra (Professor of International Security and Cooperation at Maastricht University), Laura von Allerwörden (Postdoctoral Researcher at the International Relations Chair at Kiel University), Leonard Schuette (Senior Researcher at the Munich Security Conference), and Giuseppe Zaccaria (Research Associate in Political Science in the School of Social and Political Science at the University of Glasgow) is a timely book. While International Relations (IR) scholars have explored recent challenges to the liberal international order, most research to date has focused on explaining the factors driving these challenges. The authors rightly note that much of the scholarly debate has been based on state-centric perspectives, including claims that challenges to the international order result from shifts in power among states or from domestic dissatisfaction with the unequal distribution of globalisation’s benefits, leading populist governments oppose the existing order
Monotonic decompositions of submodular set functions
No full textSubmodular set functions are undoubtedly among the most important building blocks of combinatorial optimization. Somewhat surprisingly, continuous counterparts of such functions have also appeared in an analytic line of research where they found applications in the theory of finitely additive measures, nonlinear integrals, and electric capacities. Recently, a number of connections between these two branches have been established, and the aim of this paper is to generalize further results on submodular set functions on finite sets to the analytic setting. We first extend the notion of duality of matroids to submodular set functions and characterize the uniquely determined decomposition of a submodular set function into the sum of a nonnegative charge and an increasing submodular set function in which the charge is maximal. Then, we describe basic properties of infinite-alternating set functions, a subclass of submodular set functions that serves as an analytic counterpart of coverage functions. By relaxing the monotonicity assumption in the definition, we introduce a new class of submodular functions with distinguished structural properties that includes, among others, weighted cut functions of graphs. We prove that, unlike general submodular set functions over an infinite domain, any infinite-alternating set function can be written as the sum of an increasing and a decreasing submodular function or as the difference of two increasing submodular functions, thus giving an extension of results on monotonic decompositions in the finite case. Finally, motivated by its connections to graph parameters such as the maximum size of a cut and the maximum size of a fractional triangle packing, we study the structure of such decompositions for weighted cut functions of undirected graphs
A new model of parental time investments: a paradigm shift for addressing gender inequality in the labour market
No full textThis paper introduces a new framework for understanding the persistence of the motherhood penalty by emphasizing the role of on-call care. Using a pseudo-panel event study based on the 2003–22 American Time Use Survey (ATUS), we quantify how different types of parental care time contribute to post-childbirth labour market outcomes. Our results show that gender gaps in on-call care, not primary childcare, drive the long-term reduction in mothers’ paid work. In the first 2 years after birth, declines in paid work are largely explained by primary interactive childcare. Over time, however, on-call care becomes the dominant factor. This shift is not accounted for in existing labour market models, nor in standard policies such as parental leave and childcare subsidies. We argue that the persistent economic costs of gender inequality can be better understood and addressed by integrating the temporal and unpredictable nature of caregiving into economic theory and policy design