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Northern Ireland General Election Survey, 2024
No full textThe Northern Ireland General Election Survey, 2024 investigated how the Northern Ireland electorate voted (or didn’t vote) at the 2024 General Election and the reasons behind their voting choices. The study examines the basis of party choice, attitudes to political institutions, views on Brexit, and a range of other political issues in Northern Ireland. The study is based upon a representative sample of 2,034 Northern Ireland electors, surveyed face-to-face between 19 July 2024 and 27 August 2024 following the General Election (4 July 2024). Further information can be found on the UKRI Gateway to Research webpage https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FZ503058%2F1 the 2024 Northern Ireland General Election study https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FZ503058%2F1 The study builds on a series of post-general election surveys conducted in Northern Ireland. These are held at the UK Data Service, and include: SN 6553 - Northern Ireland General Election Attitudes Survey, 2010; SN 7523 - Northern Ireland General Election Survey, 2015; SN 8234 - Northern Ireland General Election Survey, 2017; and SN 8619 - Northern Ireland General Election Survey 2019. The study addresses topics such as interest in politics, voting behaviour, the most important issues at the election, views on political parties and leaders, views on political institutions and power sharing, views on constitutional issues including factors influencing views, Brexit, post-Brexit and the Windsor Framework and, views on other issues including academic transfer, immigration, electoral pacts, water charges etc. and community relation
Low-EFFourth: A MATLAB-based computational framework for generating and studying multilevel model ensembles in low-dimensional systems (source code)
No full textThis repository contains a preliminary but fully-operational version (v0.0) of Low-EFFourth (LEF4). See also de Melo Viríssimo (2025).
1. ABOUT LEF4:
LEF4 is a MATLAB-based computational framework designed to run different types of ensembles using systems of equations written as ODEs.
LEF4 stands for:
1. Low-dimensional: focused on running low-dimensional systems, being computationally cheap and effortless.
2. Ensemble Framework: a framework that allows you to run ensembles of different shapes and sizes, including very large ensembles.
3. Fourth: allows you to run four different levels of ensemble: initial condition, parametric, multi-model and multi-numerical.
LEF4 allows you to:
1. Systematically study conceptual models in different fields, such as climate, epidemiology, economics, etc.
2. Address theoretical and practical questions on the design, implementation and interpretation of ensembles in different fields using low-dimensional models.
3. Test/trial different uncertainty quantification (UQ) strategies for both deterministic and stochastic models.
4. Use as an educational tool in the classroom for undergraduate and/or postgraduate students.
2. GETTING STARTED WITH LEF4:
Please refer to the README file, which contains a step-by-step description on how to set up and use LEF4.
Please note (see also README.txt):
- This current version (v.0.0) of LEF4 was developed in MATLAB_2023b. It should work in other MATLAB versions as well, but minor code tweaks might be required depending on the version.
- LEF4 has been written in MacOS. If you are a Windows user, you will need to swap the slash (/) by backslash (\) in the paths written in some of the files.
- In order to use the data analysis codes codes provided, you will need to download and install the cmocean colormap (Thyng et al., 2016). See README.txt for instructions.
3. CITING LEF4:
If you use LEF4 in your work, I kindly ask you to cite the this code and its accompanying preprint, including DOI:
- F. de Melo Viríssimo (2025), Low-EFFourth: A computational framework for generating and studying multilevel model ensembles in low-dimensional systems. arXiv:2506.03313. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2506.03313
- F. de Melo Viríssimo (2025), Low-EFFourth: A computational framework for generating and studying multilevel model ensembles in low-dimensional systems. (v0.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15566109
You might want to cite the publications below as well, which shows how LEF4 have been used in practice:
- F. de Melo Viríssimo, D. Stainforth (2023), A low-dimensional dynamical systems approach to climate ensemble design and interpretation. EGU General Assembly 2023, EGU23-14755. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14755
- F. de Melo Viríssimo, D. A. Stainforth, J. Bröcker (2024), The evolution of a non-autonomous chaotic system under non-periodic forcing: A climate change example. Chaos, 34 (1): 013136. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0180870
- F. de Melo Viríssimo, D. A. Stainforth (2025), Micro and macro parametric uncertainty in climate change prediction: a large ensemble perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (in press), BAMS-D-24-0064.1. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0064.1
Should you have any questions, comments and/or feedback, please feel free to get in touch (check manuscripts above for my latest email address).
Have fun! :o
Digital literacy evaluation of Code Your Future (UK)
No full textThis document presents the preliminary evaluation results of the Digital Literacy Programme (DLP) run by Code Your Future. The evaluation is part of the REMEDIS project, aimed at co-developing improvements and measuring impact of Media Literacy and Digital Skills interventions in Europe. Twelve organisations in six countries partnered with the REMEDIS academic team to evaluate and explore improvement oppurtunities for interventions aimed at vulnerable groups
Partnerships between pharmaceutical and telehealth companies-increasing access or driving inappropriate prescribing?
Get PDFJapan’s long return to artificial intelligence
No full textOnce a pioneer that helped the world lay the foundations of machine learning, Japan’s renewed push into artificial intelligence reflects a search for economic resilience as much as technological relevance
Epistemic perspectives on democratic participation, freedom and empowerment
No full textThe thesis aims to tackle two fundamental questions about epistemic aspects of democratic theory. First, which epistemic goals should democratic decision-making have and can they be pursued in a way that allows for decision-making that is both inclusive and competent? Second, how can these epistemic goals be pursued in a democracy in a manner that respects and promotes voters’ epistemic autonomy? In the first two chapters, I discuss the types of truth democracies can track and explain for which of these types more inclusive forms of decision-making will outperform less inclusive ones. In chapter one, I compare direct and representative voting on this basis, and in chapter two, deliberative mini-publics and their alternatives. Chapters three and four aim to tackle the question of which changes to voters’ informational environments can improve their epistemic autonomy and empower them. In chapter three, I coin the term “freedom of information choice”, understood as the ability to form evaluative judgments autonomously, and explain which sets of information options allow for it. In chapter four, I provide an interpretation of the epistemic empowerment of voters and explain which types of interventions will promote it. Together, these chapters provide a framework for the type of interventions in voters’ epistemic environments that could improve both inclusivity and epistemic autonomy while maintaining quality decision-making
COP30's hidden victory for us all
No full textThe Just Transition Mechanism agreed at the latest UN Climate Conference is a chance – perhaps our last – to prove that climate action can be ambitious and, lest we forget, human, writes Jodi-Ann Wang
Protecting UK workers' health and incomes in a warming world
No full textThe UK’s 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2002, and heatwaves are likely to become more frequent and more severe until at least 2050, regardless of action taken globally to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Heatwaves affect workers’ health, labour productivity and labour supply, with largely negative implications for individual incomes, company profits and the economy more broadly. With a limited history of dealing with extreme high temperatures and no statutory maximum working temperature, the UK requires new measures to protect workers’ health which would also likely positively impact firm profitability and economic growth. The authors of this report surveyed 2,000 workers after the period of elevated temperatures in summer 2024 to gain insights into how they were affected. This survey was followed by an expert roundtable with stakeholders from employment unions, local government, national government agencies, academia, the private sector, the charitable sector and chartered professional bodies in the UK. The aim was for the roundtable to co-create evidence-based, practical next steps for better protecting workers against the effects of high temperatures, informed by the survey results and the roundtable participants’ insights
Pathways to political violence and peaceful protest in conflict-affected environments
No full textWhy do some individuals embrace violence as a political means — often at extreme personal cost — while others in similar circumstances pursue moderate protest or remain politically inactive? This fundamental question is of considerable importance as violent conflict remains a threat to social cohesion worldwide. Yet recent meta-analyses highlight a dearth of robust research on the psychological drivers of political violence, particularly among some of the populations most affected by its consequences. Moreover, fewer than 12% of contemporary studies employ inferential statistical methods, constraining their reliability and capacity for theory-building. This thesis is an attempt to fill this gap by extending collective action concepts into the domain of political violence. Although three factors — moral outrage, perceived efficacy, and group identification — have been demonstrated as pathways towards lower-risk protest forms, this research examines their differential role in translating grievances into high-risk political action in conflict-affected environments, where participation costs are especially pronounced. This framework is tested across four studies involving fieldwork and the collection of large-scale, quantitative data in six populations in the Middle East (total N = 13,370). Each chapter advances the broader analysis in methodological or thematic aspects. Study I employs geospatial methods to examine how the presence of Israeli settlements in the West Bank shifts Palestinian protest behaviour from moderate towards confrontational and violent forms. Study II isolates a novel cognitive tendency in outgroup motive attributions among Jewish Israelis and Palestinians in Gaza during an ongoing period of extreme violence. This ‘hate-love bias’ works alongside other psychological and ideological factors explaining how ordinary people can come to support violence against civilians that they would normally deplore. Studies III and IV directly test the collective action models: first, to predict extreme commitment and costly sacrifice among combatants in armed opposition groups during the Syrian civil war; and second, in the context of political protest intentions in Iraq and Lebanon. The thesis also integrates qualitative findings from several years of fieldwork and interviews that inform and contextualise the analysis. Across the studies, moral outrage consistently outweighed social identity and instrumental beliefs about group efficacy in explaining individual engagement in high-risk protest and political violence. Efficacy retained a motivational effect only for lower-risk actions; identification with various target groups had largely no influence. By integrating these deviations from existing theory, this thesis formulates a ‘divergent pathways’ framework of collective action in which instrumental and moral reasoning jointly drive lower-risk protest; yet as actions become riskier, instrumental motives weaken while moral motives become central. Building on critiques of rational actor assumptions, this research clarifies engagement mechanisms in collective political violence, pointing to behavioural science levers for effective responses to an enduring social challenge
The impact of class size on academic performance
No full textThe relationship between class size and academic performance is a relevant topic in the debate of educational strategies and optimal resource allocation. This analysis reviews economic literature to explore the implications and effectiveness of reducing student-to-teacher ratios. Teachers and parents prefer smaller classes, allowing for more personalized attention and better management of potential classroom disruptions. However, research shows that while reducing class size positively impacts student learning, this effect is limited and comes with significant budgetary costs. Reducing student-to-teacher ratios in the early years of education, such as in preschool and primary levels, and disadvantaged areas, or implementing strategies like small-group tutoring, are presented as options with a superior cost–benefit ratio compared to general class size reduction. Future research could focus on the interaction between class size and teaching practices, the incorporation of technology, and pedagogical innovations to develop more comprehensive and effective solutions for improving academic performance