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Psychological insights for judging expertise and implications for adversarial legal contexts
No full textDetermining which experts to trust is essential for both routine and high-stakes decisions, yet evaluating expertise can be difficult. In this Review, we examine the cognitive processes that underpin genuine expertise and explore the disconnect between psychological insights into expertise and the practical methods used to evaluate it. In settings where expertise must be evaluated by laypeople, such as adversarial legal trials, evaluators face substantial challenges, including knowledge disparities that hinder analysis, communication barriers that impact the clear explanation of expert methods, and procedural constraints that limit the scrutiny of expert evidence. These challenges complicate the assessment of expert claims and contribute to wrongful convictions and unjust outcomes. We suggest that a distinction between ‘show-it’ and ‘know-it’ expert performances that differ in their visibility, measurability and immediacy can be used as a heuristic for identifying when evaluations of expertise require greater care and should incorporate a variety of diagnostic factors including foundational and applied validity. Finally, we highlight key knowledge gaps and propose promising directions for future research to improve evaluations of expertise in a range of contexts
Evolving health norms amid overlapping crises: (re)constructing global health security and universal health coverage
No full textFor the Global Health at LSE blog this week, doctoral candidate Arush Lal, Dr Clare Wenham and Dr Justin Parkhurst (all LSE Health Policy) provide an overview of their recent paper in International Affairs, ‘(Re)constructing global health security & universal health coverage: norm contestation & interaction’. They begin by asking: As pandemics, climate disasters, economic instability, and geopolitical conflicts converge, how do we build health systems that are both crisis-ready and universally-accessible? Are we prepared to balance national security concerns with the fundamental right to health in a world where multilateralism is eroding and nationalism is rising
Vulnerability and place: a test of the psychology of perceived vulnerability for women and men
No full textResearch shows that women’s heightened worry about crime reflects a stronger sense of psychological vulnerability, constituted not only by their perceptions of the likelihood of victimisation but also their sense of control over victimisation and the anticipated consequences of crime. While gender differences in worry have been widely studied, less is known about how neighbourhood context shapes these psychological processes. This study addresses this gap by testing the model of perceived vulnerability among 2,862 participants nested in 80 neighbourhoods in Victoria, Australia. We examine whether perceptions of likelihood, control and the consequences of crime differentially predict worry about crime for women and men, while also accounting for between-neighbourhood variation. The results reveal distinct gendered processes of vulnerability: women’s worry about crime is more place-based, clustering more strongly by neighbourhood, whereas men’s worry is more person-based, shaped primarily by their own assessment of likelihood rather than broader environmental factors. Additionally, perceptions of control and consequences play a key role in shaping women’s perceived vulnerability but are not significant predictors for men. By integrating psychological and ecological perspectives, this study highlights the need to situate individual-level fear of crime processes within the neighbourhood contexts in which they are experienced
Syllogistic logic and mathematical proof by Paolo Mancosu and Massimo Mugnai, pp. 240, £60 (hard), ISBN 978-0-19887-692-2, Oxford University Press (2023)
No full textDoes gender matter for export behavior? evidence for German companies
No full textPurpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the relation between the gender of firm owners, and employees, and the export behavior of firms in Germany. Design/methodology/approach: A new and comprehensive dataset on manufacturing plants and enterprises based on official firm data from the German Federal Statistical Office and the Offices of the Federal States was constructed. Using ordinary least squares, logit and tobit regression, this study investigates the female exporter productivity premium, the export propensity and the export intensity for female-dominated or -owned businesses in Germany. A decomposition analysis across firm size and across sectors was conducted. Findings: The analysis shows that female exporters gain a higher productivity premium than male exporters: indeed, female exporters in Germany are on average almost twice as productive as male exporters. Moreover, strong evidence is found that plants are less likely to export when they belong to a female-owned firm or a firm that has a majority share of female employees. When we control for various characteristics, including productivity and further regional and industry-wide influences, this shows that the decision to export depends significantly on gender. The results suggest the existence of barriers that female exporters face to a greater degree than male exporters and that barriers appear to be a result of demand-side driven discrimination. Practical implications: Policy implications include the need for improvements to business environments, access to finance and family care facilities and empowerment of women to encourage their participation in international trade and to start an exporting business. Originality/value: This study focuses on the role of gender for engagement into international trade, which has been rather unexplored in the research literature so far. It provides first-time evidence for the link between gender, exports and productivity for Germany – as an industrialized country, having a high degree of womens’ rights and gender equality in an international comparison – analyzing the exporter productivity premium, the propensity and intensity to export and effects resulting from discrimination as given by demand-side-driven trade barriers
Dynamic factor analysis of high-dimensional recurrent events
No full textSummary: Recurrent event time data arise in many studies, including in biomedicine, public health, marketing and social media analysis. High-dimensional recurrent event data involving many event types and observations have become prevalent with advances in information technology. This article proposes a semiparametric dynamic factor model for the dimension reduction of high-dimensional recurrent event data. The proposed model imposes a low-dimensional structure on the mean intensity functions of the event types while allowing for dependencies. A nearly rate-optimal smoothing-based estimator is proposed. An information criterion that consistently selects the number of factors is also developed. Simulation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of these inference tools. The proposed method is applied to grocery shopping data, for which an interpretable factor structure is obtained
The revealed demand for hard versus soft news: evidence from Italian TV viewership
No full textWe analyze minute-by-minute, individual level data on viewership for Italian TV news broadcasts, matched with detailed data on content. We study viewer behavior, especially the decision of viewers to switch away from a news program as a function of the type of story being broadcast. Somewhat surprisingly, we find that viewers are more likely to switch away from “soft” news compared to “hard” news. Instead, sensational stories about crime, accidents and disasters are associated with less switching. We also find significant differences in this switching behavior according to gender, age, and TV channel. Finally, we find that viewers are relatively more likely to seek another news program if they are switching away from a soft news story. Overall, the results are inconsistent with a commonly held view that television viewers always prefer soft news to hard news
The urbanising dynamics of global China: speculation, articulation, and translation in global capitalism
No full textThe book focuses on the urban dimension of "global China", especially regarding the impacts of its urbanising dynamics on the (re)imaginings and manifestations of global urban futures. It situates China’s urban question in contemporary global change, and vice versa, by understanding the rise of global China as an urban process that weaves together compressed spaces, variegated times and trans- scalar power dynamics in the making of global capitalism. The overseas expansion of China’s economic influence has long been foregrounded in media reports and policy debates, especially with the rise of the Belt and Road Initiative that has turned China into one of the key investors in the global South. The term global China has been widely adopted to depict the geopolitical dimension of this immense flow of capital. This edited volume explores the urban manifestation of global China at different scales and involving diverse actors, discussing the ways in which the urban has been reconfigured by China’s global expansion and uncovering the differentiated modes of speculative and spectacular urban production at present. Observing from Ghana, India, Malaysia and China, chapters in this book collectively make theoretical, methodological and empirical contributions to recognise the dynamics of speculation, articulation and translation in global capitalism, where China plays an increasingly significant role. Three main themes have guided the book’s interrogation of what global China implies. These include: (a) transplanting models and urbanism; (b) multi- scalar construction of temporality; and (c) situating the urban China model in global capitalism. These aspects mark the core of the book’s endeavour to extend the critique of our changing urban conditions at present. This book was originally published as a special issue of Urban Geography
A new approach to getting simulation models used in healthcare: an example from emergency care
No full textWhile simulation is routinely used by practitioners in many sectors, it is still not part of the hospital manager’s standard toolkit. One of the barriers to adoption often described is lack of trust: people trust models that they were involved in developing, but not necessarily those developed for other hospitals, no matter how similar. However, generic models designed to be applicable anywhere also face challenges, as potential users may distrust this one-size-fits-all approach. This paper presents a new approach to tackling this problem. Initially a “semi- generic” model is developed, namely a model that is applicable to a small group of hospitals that have some particular feature in common, e.g., geographical location/size. The semi-generic version is then tested extensively with stakeholders, first from within the initial group of hospitals and later from outside it. Finally, based on feedback from all the stakeholders, the model is adapted to make it fully generic, i.e., applicable to any hospital. The approach is illustrated by a system dynamics model which allows users to test the system-wide impact of five evidence-based interventions for older people in hospital Emergency Departments. Initially developed for one specific region, the fully generic version can be used anywhere in England