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The diversification of jurisprudence? Intellectual history seen through the lens of a friendship
No full textLong-horizon exchange rate expectations
No full textWe study exchange rate expectations in surveys of financial professionals and find that they successfully forecast currency appreciation at the two-year horizon, both in and out of sample. Exchange rate expectations are also interpretable, in the sense that three macro-finance variables—the risk-neutral covariance between the exchange rate and equity market, the real exchange rate, and the current account relative to GDP—explain most of their variation. There is no “secret sauce,” however, in expectations: After controlling for the three macro-finance variables, the residual information in survey expectations does not forecast currency appreciation in our sample
Validation of the hospital frailty risk score in China
No full textPurpose: To validate the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) in Chinese hospital settings, describing how patients are allocated to frailty risk groups and how frailty risk is associated with length of stay (LoS) and hospital costs. Design: Retrospective observational study. Setting: Forty-eight hospitals in Lvliang City, Shanxi Province, China. Subjects: Patients aged 75 years or older hospitalised between 1 January 2022 and 31 December 2023 (n = 34,731). Methods: A logistic regression model examined the association between long length of stay (LoS) and frailty risk. A generalised linear model assessed the association between hospital costs and frailty risk. Subgroup analyses of age group, sex, and hospital tiers were conducted. Results: 22.2% of patients were categorised as having zero risk, 62.4% as low risk, 15.3% as intermediate risk, and 0.08% as high risk. Compared to the zero risk group: for those with low risk, the probability of long LoS was 1.92 (95% CI 1.79–2.06) times higher and hospital costs were ¥1926 (95% CI 1655–2197) higher; for those with intermediate risk, the probability of long LoS was 2.7 (95% CI 2.49–2.96) times higher and hospital costs were ¥4284 (95% CI 3916–4653) higher; and for those with high risk, the probability of long LoS was 6.7 (95% CI 3.06–14.43) times higher and hospital costs were ¥16,613 (95% CI 12,827–20,399) higher. The explanatory power of the HFRS held across subgroups. Conclusions: Compared to patients aged 75 + elsewhere, those in China had lower frailty risk scores, likely reflecting a younger age structure and recording of fewer diagnosis codes. Even so, the HFRS is a powerful predictor of long length of stay and hospital costs in China
A defence of informed preference satisfaction theories of welfare
No full textThis article defends informed preference satisfaction theories of welfare against the most influential objections put forward in the economic and philosophy of science literatures. The article explicates and addresses in turn: the objection from inner rational agents; the objection from unfeasible preference reconstruction; the objection from dubious normative commitments; the objection from conceptual ambiguity; and the objection from conceptual replacement. My defence does not exclude that preference satisfaction theories of welfare face significant conceptual and practical challenges. Still, if correct, it demonstrates that philosophers/welfare economists are justified in relying on specific versions of such theories, namely informed preference satisfaction theories
Strong orientation of a connected graph for a crossing family
No full textGiven a connected graph G = (V , E) and a crossing family C over ground set V such that | δ G ( U ) | ≥ 2 for every U ∈ C , we prove there exists a strong orientation of G for C , i.e., an orientation of G such that each set in C has at least one outgoing and at least one incoming arc. This implies the main conjecture in Chudnovsky et al. (2016) [3]
Capitalism and democracy
No full textSince the inception of the discipline, the complex relationship between capitalism and democracy has been at the vanguard of political economy debates. This chapter unpacks these two key concepts and shines a light on the many complementarities and frictions between them. While democracy is based on the principle of equality (one person, one vote), capitalism allocates resources (if only ideally) based on ability, skill, merit, and productivity. We explore the interactions between capitalism and democracy and the tensions that these conflicting logics beget. To this end, this chapter reviews and conceptualises optimistic and pessimistic views on the questions if capitalism and democracy can ultimately coexist. We close the chapter with a discussion of democratic backsliding
When do people trust their government?
No full textThere has been widespread concern about the decrease in trust in government and the need to regain it. Policymakers and researchers have been working on reasons for this, and how to reverse it. In this study, we rely on a recent sample prepared by the World Values Survey, wave 7. It includes over 81,000 observations across 52 countries for the years 2017 - 22. Our study offers three main findings. The first is that economic growth plays a crucial role in determining trust in government, and its importance appears consistent across all regions. The second is the presence of a "Trust Paradox," whereby trust in government tends to be lower in fully democratic countries compared to single-party states, with the exception of Latin America. The third is that migration generally is positively related to trust in government. We explain this by noting that, historically, this has often been the case; however, when inward migration exceeds a certain threshold, the effect on trust often shifts
Can Friedrich Merz navigate Germany's fragmented political landscape?
No full textA grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD is widely expected in Germany. Yet as John Ryan argues, there are serious questions about whether the new coalition will be able to respond to the multiple challenges facing the country
Could Trump and Xi break the deadlock in the World Bank?
No full textJakob Vestergaard and Robert H. Wade argue that Trump’s transactional approach to deals might paradoxically help break the long-standing deadlock in World Bank governance by pushing China to increase its financial contributions in exchange for greater shareholding and influence
AIDS, stigma and counter-intuitive advertising in India
No full textGrassroots-level advocacy by community organisations, collectives and networks has been central to AIDs awareness and control in India. The government too plays an important role. Yet, as Jo Krishnakumar discusses here, the government’s well-intended actions can sometimes be counter-intuitive and counter-productive, negatively impacting decades of carefully created awareness