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Big bad wolf, or is it? Iran’s economic footprint in Iraq in context
No full textIt is asserted that Iran exercises dominance over Iraq’s economy to further its political hegemony and to circumvent the sanctions imposed on it. Three economic exchanges are almost always cited to support such assertions. Foremost is Iraq’s critical dependence on imports of Iranian electricity and gas; followed by large and growing imports of Iranian goods; and finally, the exploitation of the Central Bank of Iraq’s US dollar auction to siphon dollars. Such assertions are grounded in a Western, primarily US-led, narrative born out of the conflict with Iran, arguing that Iran was the true beneficiary, at the expense of the US, of its invasion of Iraq in 2003. As such, guiding policy decisions, often overlooking Iraq’s own political and economic dynamics, with often detrimental consequences. The US-Iranian conflict is likely to intensify under the Trump administration and the return of the maximum pressure campaign, which will likely spill over into US relations with Iraq. This piece seeks to put these three exchanges in context, arguing that Iran’s large economic footprint is a symptom of Iraq’s structural economic imbalances, and as such instead of confronting these symptoms through an ‘ideology of confrontation’, the focus should be on addressing the root causes of these imbalances. However, this requires pursuing rational policies, grounded in an understanding of the underlying economic structures
Macroeconomic sovereignty in the European Economic and Monetary Union: a republican approach
No full textThe Economic and Monetary Union has fundamentally changed how fiscal and monetary powers are exercised over democratic publics which raise the question of whether a normative vision of macroeconomic sovereignty is compatible with membership within the Eurozone. After conceptualising sovereignty in republican terms as the balance between four ‘power-countering strategies’, this article conducts a normative analysis of the evolution of Economic and Monetary Union governance. This exercise shows how – by neglecting one of the four republican strategies, namely to increase citizens’ democratic participation at the European Union level – successive institutional innovations as well as recent proposals fail to make the exercise of public powers compatible with citizens’ status equality. In contrast, the argument suggests that if citizens’ influence is channelled through a ‘system of dual partisanship’, in which national and European parliamentarians coordinate their activities, national and Economic and Monetary Union’ executives’ discretion can be democratically controlled
From vision to reality: the EU's pharmaceutical reforms and the path to improved access
No full textDisparities in access to oncology medicines in European Union (EU) member states can impact patient outcomes profoundly, with availability and timely access varying significantly across and within member states. This paper discusses the intersection of the new European Health Technology Assessment Regulation (HTAR), the provisions of the proposed pharmaceutical legislation and their potential impacts on access to oncology medicines across EU member states. The HTAR, seeking to standardise the clinical evaluation of new medicines, has the potential to streamline the evaluation process but also risks oversimplifying diverse national healthcare needs. While the HTAR may accelerate access in countries with less-developed health technology assessment systems, it could potentially conflict with established practices in countries with advanced assessment systems, resulting in both joint and national clinical evaluations becoming necessary. The proposed pharmaceutical legislation reform, in both initial and updated forms, aims to incentivise an EU-wide launch of new medicines that challenges the feasibility for manufacturers, particularly in the context of diverse and complex national pricing and reimbursement systems. Both initiatives mark a significant shift towards more collaborative European healthcare policy yet faces the potential of unintended consequences owing to an apparent lack of pragmatism, such as delays in access because of increased administrative burdens and possible deterrents for innovation in Europe. The paper underscores the need for policy adaptation and multi-stakeholder collaboration to ensure the legislative changes achieve equitable and timely access to oncology treatments across the EU
Environmental clauses in investment arbitration: deep roots, green shoots and dead wood
No full textAn assumed conflict between international investment law and environmental protection has driven many States to negotiate investment treaty clauses that reaffirm their policy space. But what on earth is policy space? Are we sure that environmental and investment protection are conflicted? Now that environmental clauses have been interpreted by tribunals, which functions, if any, are they serving in investment arbitration? In addressing such questions, this article defends an integrated hierarchy of environmental over investment protection, affirmed by the International Court of Justice and wider practice, whereby a State’s presumptive right to regulate for environmental protection is inherently limited by a test of manifest disproportionality. Against that normative baseline, we are better equipped to assess whether environmental clauses have affirmed or diverged from a State’s rights and obligations under general international law. The article introduces a typology of 12 environmental clauses in investment treaties, examined in light of arbitral practice and organised according to three stages of analysis: jurisdiction (legality, exclusion, exemption, denial of benefits); breach (conflict, affirmation, clarification, implementation, non-regression); and exception (justification, reservation, investor obligation). Ultimately, this article identifies which clauses reflect general international law (deep roots), may enhance environmental protection (green shoots) or make negligible contribution (dead wood)
Conversations with deviant website developers: a case study of online shopping fraud enablers
No full textThis study explores the experiences and challenges faced by Cameroonian website developers involved in creating non-delivery fraud websites. Through semi-structured interviews with 14 developers, four key themes were identified: (1) The psychological impact of the Ambazonian crisis, including heightened stress and anxiety due to ongoing civil conflict; (2) Infrastructure disruptions, such as frequent power outages and internet blackouts, which hinder their work and increase operational risks; (3) The influence of spiritual beliefs on decision-making, where concerns about offending ancestral spirits deter developers from direct fraud involvement; and (4) Cultural perceptions of cybercrime, particularly the glorification of the "Big Boy" image, which normalises fraudulent activities as symbols of success. The study suggests that redirecting these developers' skills towards legitimate tech employment opportunities in Cameroon and internationally could help reduce cyber deviance and contribute to economic growth in affected regions
The impact of new housing supply on the distribution of rents
No full textI estimate the impact of new housing supply on the local rent distribution, exploiting delays in housing completions caused by weather shocks. A 1% increase in new supply (i) lowers average rents by 0.19%, (ii) effectively reduces rents of lower-quality units, and (iii) disproportionately increases the number of second-hand units available for rent. Moreover, the impact on rents is equally strong in high-demand markets. Employing a quantitative model, I explain these results by second-hand supply: New supply triggers moving chains that free up units in all market segments. The estimate translates into a short-run demand price elasticity of −0.025
Fighting with blunted tools? The politics of contemporary inflation management in southern Europe
No full textThis article compares the responses of the governments and social partners in Italy and Spain to the inflation crisis of 2021–2023. Faced with a common exogenous shock and sharing a comparable institutional setting in the labour market, the two countries’ responses to the inflation crisis differed substantially with regard to the policy mode of crisis response and the types of policy intervention. First, social partners’ involvement was far more significant in Spain, where peak-level agreements were signed setting a three-year trajectory for negotiated wage increases. In contrast, Italian governments proceeded unilaterally, with no attempts at collective bargaining coordination. Secondly, while the Italian government disbursed more fiscal resources through targeted compensatory measures, the Spanish government relied primarily on energy price controls and minimum wage revaluation, with lower overall fiscal expenditure. Finally, the distribution of inflation costs across population groups differed, with inflation in Spain being lower and having less regressive distributional effects than in Italy. We attribute the differing policy responses to the different partisan compositions and ideological orientations of the two governments
From social media to artificial intelligence: improving research on digital harms in youth
No full textIn this Personal View, we critically evaluate the limitations and underlying challenges of existing research into the negative mental health consequences of internet-mediated technologies on young people. We argue that identifying and proactively addressing consistent shortcomings is the most effective method for building an accurate evidence base for the forthcoming influx of research on the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on children and adolescents. Basic research, advice for caregivers, and evidence for policy makers should tackle the challenges that led to the misunderstanding of social media harms. The Personal View has four sections: first, we conducted a critical appraisal of recent reviews regarding effects of technology on children and adolescents' mental health, aimed at identifying limitations in the evidence base; second, we discuss what we think are the most pressing methodological challenges underlying those limitations; third, we propose effective ways to address these limitations, building on robust methodology, with reference to emerging applications in the study of AI and children and adolescents' wellbeing; and lastly, we articulate steps for conceptualising and rigorously studying the ever-shifting sociotechnological landscape of digital childhood and adolescence. We outline how the most effective approach to understanding how young people shape, and are shaped by, emerging technologies, is by identifying and directly addressing specific challenges. We present an approach grounded in interpreting findings through a coherent and collaborative evidence-based framework in a measured, incremental, and informative way
Monetary-fiscal interaction and the liquidity of government debt
No full textHow does the monetary and fiscal policy mix alter households’ saving incentives? To answer these questions, we build a heterogenous agents New Keynesian model where three different types of agents can save in assets with different liquidity profiles to insure against idiosyncratic risk. Policy mixes affect saving incentives differently according to their effect on the liquidity premium- the return difference between less liquid assets and public debt. We derive an intuitive analytical expression linking the liquidity premium with consumption differentials amongst different types of agents. This underscores the presence of a transmission mechanism through which the interaction of monetary and fiscal policy shapes economic stability via its effect on the portfolio choice of private agents. We call it the self-insurance demand channel, which moves the liquidity premium in the opposite direction to the standard policy-driven supply channel. Our analysis thus reveals the presence of two competing forces driving the liquidity premium. We show that the relative strength of the two is tightly linked to the policy mix in place and the type of business cycle shock hitting the economy. This implies that to stabilize the economy, monetary policy should consider the impact of the self-insurance on the liquidity premium
