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The Holy Roman Empire at bay: financing the defence against the Ottomans, c.1560-1610
No full textHow did the Holy Roman Empire solve the collective action problem of defending itself against the Ottomans between 1566 and 1606? To answer this question, the article first reassesses the extent to which the imperial estates paid their defence dues. The new approach followed here indicates that with on average 72.5 percent, compliance rates were more than 15 percentage points lower than previously suggested. The article then statistically examines factors that influenced compliance, finding that the perceived legitimacy of the grant of a Turkish Aid by the imperial diet increased the estates’ willingness to pay. Also, it finds that several groups of estates were willing to pay larger shares than their respective control groups. It argues that while the emperor used the funds to finance the wars with the Ottomans, the primary motive of these estates for contributing was securing the emperor’s support in protecting private property rights
Understanding teachers’ contribution to learning outcomes: implications for teachers’ policy in Ethiopia
No full textEstimating teachers’ relative contribution to raising learning outcomes at scale is important for informing policy on teachers and teacher development. Much of the research dedicated to assessing the contribution of teachers to their pupils’ progress in quantitative terms uses value-added modelling (VAM). Value-added modelling is typically estimated based on students’ measured learning gains over a course of a fixed period such as an academic year. Unfortunately, value-added estimates generally describe a black box of mechanisms and do not identify which specific teacher practices and/or interactions with pupils lie behind students’ progress. Therefore, it is worth asking whether and to what extent VAM can be used to understand teacher contribution to pupils’ progress, and how it can help us to inform teacher policy. In this article, we examine both questions in the context of Ethiopia. We argue that VAM offers important potential, but that it needs careful contextualization to adequately inform teacher policy. While data suited for value-added analysis are rarely available in low- and middle-income contexts, we are able to make use of such data from the Research on Improving Systems of Education (RISE) Ethiopia programme. Ethiopia is a particularly interesting case study. Important reforms to improve both equity and quality of basic education have been implemented, with a strong focus on strengthening teacher training. Nonetheless, learning outcomes have declined in recent years. Our findings provide additional evidence supporting the critics of unconditional VAM approaches
Doubly robust alignment for large language models
No full textThis paper studies reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) for aligning large language models with human preferences. While RLHF has demonstrated promising results, many algorithms are highly sensitive to misspecifications in the underlying preference model (e.g., the Bradley-Terry model), the reference policy, or the reward function, resulting in undesirable fine-tuning. To address model misspecification, we propose a doubly robust preference optimization algorithm that remains consistent when either the preference model or the reference policy is correctly specified (without requiring both). Our proposal demonstrates superior and more robust performance than state-of-the-art algorithms, both in theory and in practice. The code is available at https://github.com/DRPO4LLM/DRPO4LL
The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: climate change action offers a lifeline
No full textDriven by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, climate change is increasingly claiming lives and harming people's health worldwide. Mean annual temperatures exceeded 1·5°C above those of pre-industrial times for the first time in 2024. Despite ever more urgent calls to tackle climate change, greenhouse gas emissions rose to record levels that same year. Climate change is increasingly destabilising the planetary systems and environmental conditions on which human life depends
The role of experience in climate adaptation: evidence from a field experiment in China
No full textThis paper extends the existing individual decision-making framework of adapting to climate change by considering the effects of prior personal experience in shaping risk preferences. Conducting Prospect Theory-based “lab-in-field” risk experiments in rural areas of Xinjiang Province, we elicit Chinese farmers' risk curvature and probability bias by adopting more flexible Prelec's two-parameter probability functions. Using Bayesian approaches to estimation, we find that farmers' prior experiences not only provide information that influences the subjective distributions of future outcomes but also, by shaping farmers' personal risk preferences, affects how farmers absorb and update this information. As such, our research suggests that individual risk preferences can evolve, and the effects of personal experience on preferences exhibit distinct patterns depending on whether farmers face benefits or losses. Experiencing production damages tends to make farmers more averse to losses and increases their optimistic bias concerning personal loss risks. A policy implication of these findings is that it is crucial to reduce farmers' cognitive biases regarding their own climate-related losses and their over-reliance on personal experiences in order to make accurate risk management decisions
Art as an antidote to violence
No full textArt and creative practice have long been topics of attention in scholarship, although their relevance to understanding war and political violence has been less developed. This article introduces a special issue whose contributions aim to deepen our understanding of how creative processes can disrupt war and its legacies. We affirm scholarship in critical and feminist security studies that has found that top-down, state-based approaches to peacebuilding and transitional justice often fall short of their goals, highlighting the need for more creative bottom-up strategies to disrupt war logics and systems of oppression. In this introduction, we draw on theorizing about how art and creativity can provide us with new language to understand and analyze structures of harm and violence. We explore how creativity and a politic of ordinary encounters can help mobilize people to resist violence. And finally, we consider how art, creativity, and care can contribute to healing and repair after war by allowing their participants to imagine new futures and possibilities. The eight articles that follow each make the case for the central need to explore how art and creative practices can play crucial roles in efforts to disrupt violence, oppression, and harm of all forms
The bonds of freedom: liberated Africans and the end of the slave trade
No full textThe story of the long fight for freedom of African captives rescued from the illegal slave trade only to be forced back into bondage The Bonds of Freedom tells the forgotten story of people seized from slave ships by maritime patrols, “liberated,” then forced into bonded labor between 1807 and 1880. Using extensive archival research from Sierra Leone, South Africa, Brazil, Cuba, the United Kingdom, and the United States, historian Jake Subryan Richards uncovers the contrasting ideas and practices of authoritarianism and freedom that empires and liberated Africans developed during the protracted end of the illegal slave trade. Following the Africans’ journeys from enslavement to liberation, Richards recounts their capture and embarkation on ships that participated in the vast slave trade to Brazil and Cuba, the maritime seizure of those ships, and the adjudication that assigned freed captives to bonded labor. The captives fought against their bondage as state agents limited their freedom of choice and movement. The liberated Africans’ story shows that, far from following a straightforward path to freedom, these men and women navigated anti-slave-trade laws that both subjected them to authoritarian control and provided a domain for them to create their own visions of freedom. Through meticulous research and engaging narrative, Richards sheds light on their legal battles, community-building efforts, and ongoing quest for justice and autonomy in the face of enduring challenges
Global health at crossroads: uniting together to overcome challenges, restore trust and advance priorities for a sustainable future
No full textThe world is currently facing an unprecedented convergence of crises that threaten the core pillars of public health, scientific integrity, and social stability. These challenges are profoundly interconnected and have the potential to exacerbate global inequalities, jeopardize health security, and undermine the progress achieved through decades of international collaboration. Our viewpoint declaration, developed by 366 healthcare workers and scientists from 119 countries across six continents, highlights the urgent need for global solidarity and collective action to address these interconnected global health challenges. As healthcare workers and scientists, we must prioritize the protection of scientific integrity, combat political interference, and restore public trust in the scientific process. This will require a commitment to transparency, ethical responsibility, and evidence-based decision-making that can stand strong in the face of political and social adversity. The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the critical importance of resilient healthcare systems, emphasizing that preparedness, capacity building and coherent leadership and coordination are essential for future global health crises. In addition, our call for a One Health approach, acknowledging the intricate relationship between human, animal, and environmental health, has never been more pressing, especially as zoonotic diseases and antimicrobial resistance spread across borders. As we confront ongoing wars, environmental destruction, and global persistent health inequalities, it is only through unity, solidarity, collaboration, and innovation that we hope to build a healthier, more equitable world. Together, we must ensure that science and medicine remain a force for good, capable of addressing both the immediate and long-term needs and challenges facing our shared future