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Normalized hurricane damage in the United States: 1900-2022
No full textSince 1900, landfalling hurricanes have been the costliest of all weather-related disasters to afflict the contiguous United States. To provide a present-day (2022) reevaluation of this risk, this study employs an improved normalization approach to better understand potential economic event losses in the context of contemporary societal conditions. The updated methodology identifies impacted coastal counties using the newly available radius of maximum winds at landfall. Hurricane Katrina is the most expensive hurricane since 1900, with a likely 2022 normalized cost of 2.9 trillion in normalized economic losses. The study also explores some "analog storms"where comparisons can be made between two historic storms with similar landfall locations. For example, category 5 Andrew (1992) has lower 2022 normalized losses than category 4 Great Miami (1926), at 178 billion, most likely due to the significantly different radius of maximum wind size (10 vs 20 n mi; 1 n mi = 1.852 km). As with previous studies, we conclude that increases in inflation, coastal population, regional wealth, and higher replacement costs remain the primary drivers of observed increases in hurricane-related damage. These upsurges are especially impactful for some coastal regions along the U.S. Gulf and Southeast Coasts that have seen exceptionally high rates of population/housing growth in comparison to countrywide growth. Exposure growth trends are likely to continue in the future and, independent of any influence of climate change on tropical cyclone behavior, are expected to result in greater hurricane-related damage costs than have been previously observed
Children’s lived experience of poverty and vulnerability in Kenya: going beyond multi-dimensionality
No full textDrawing from ethnographic research, this book presents children’s lived experience of poverty and vulnerability in Kenya. By taking the case of Siaya, Kenya, which has some of the lowest indicators of child well-being, the book presents children’s complex lived experience from three interlinked everyday spaces of the home, the school and support programmes. It argues that children’s experience is formed at the interstices of material lack, historically as well as politically located factors and the complex context of social relations. The book is anchored in an innovative methodology of listening softly to children’s voice. Aimed at fully capturing children’s experience, listening softly focusses on the different ways that children’s voice happen. The book challenges scholarship to go beyond multi-dimensionality and re-imagine children’s experience as complex and entangled, use methods that are attuned to capturing children’s messy experience of poverty, and be ‘widely awake’ in each intervention context to capture the emergent fluid experience of children. Presenting a non-linear, contextual, entangled and complex experience of poverty and vulnerability, this book will be of interest to scholars and students in the field of Poverty Studies, Development Studies, Childhood Studies, Social Policy, Critical studies, Human and Child Rights and African Studies
Statistical analysis of peer grading: a latent variable approach
No full textPeer grading is an educational system in which students assess each other’s work. It is commonly applied under Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) and offline classroom settings. Peer grading data have a complex network structure, where each student is a vertex of the network, and each peer grade serves as an edge connecting one student as a grader to another student as an examinee. We introduce a latent variable model framework for analyzing peer grading data and develop a fully Bayesian procedure for its statistical inference. The proposed approach produces more accurate aggregated grades by modelling the heterogeneous grading behaviour with latent variables and provides a way to assess each student’s performance as a grader. It may be used to identify a pool of reliable graders or generate feedback to help students improve their grading. Thanks to the Bayesian approach, uncertainty quantification is straightforward when inferring the student-specific latent variables as well as the structural parameters of the model. The proposed method is applied to a real-world dataset
Understanding the economic value of interventions addressing perinatal mental health problems: a literature review and methodological considerations
No full textEconomic evaluations of mental health problems typically only include short-term measures from an individual healthcare perspective. In perinatal mental health, which spans generations, this is likely to lead to an underestimation of interventions' potential benefits. We sought to understand the spectrum of outcomes of perinatal mental health problems that have economic consequences and how they are captured in economic evaluations. We conducted a systematic search of the peer-reviewed literature to identify two types of evidence: (i) synthesised evidence (i.e. systematic reviews, meta-analyses) or recent cohort studies that measured the outcomes of perinatal mental health problems, (ii) economic evaluations. After presenting the evidence narratively, we derive an overview of different types of outcomes to include in economic evaluations. Evidence on the many, wide ranging adverse outcomes with short- and long-term economic consequences is rich, ranging from those that can be measured during the perinatal period (e.g., mother's employment), those that require a longer-term follow-up period (e.g., children's mental health service use) and those that can be used as predictors in modelling studies (e.g., birth weight). Only a small subset of economic consequences, and their predictors (e.g., child maltreatment, poor attachment), are currently measured in economic evaluations. We make some recommendations how more and new types of economic evaluations might start addressing the gap in knowledge. To inform decisions about reducing the costs of perinatal mental health problems, economic evaluations that provide knowledge of interventions' abilities to reduce the short- and long-term economic consequences are urgently needed. [Abstract copyright: Copyright © 2025. Published by Elsevier Inc.
New materialism and the politics of climate action: a critical dialogue
No full textLars Tønder, Power in the Anthropocene (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2025
Hierarchical formation control technology for multiple autonomous underwater vehicles
No full textThe employment of multiple AUVs is to perform missions while maintaining a geometric formation designated. In this paper, communication mechanism based on blackboard is introduced to support cooperation between AUVs, messages are typed according to artificial intelligence. The hierarchical formation control algorithm is proposed, including designing level, generating level, behavioural level, evaluating level. Several formation patterns are designed according to different tasks and requirements. Orderly‐Quaternion sets and control matrix are defined for the design of accurate formation geometry. Behaviours of following subgoals and avoiding obstacles enable AUVs team move forward to destination by keeping ideal pattern. Formation length rate and formation maintaining rate are utilised for AUVs team to evaluate the effect of formation. Finally, the presented approach is verified by a simulation of a swarm of AUVs moving through a constrained environment
The Flying Geese pattern of development in the ASEAN5: analysis and implications
No full textIn the four decades following 1960, the Southeast Asian economies of Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines (ASEAN5) grew faster than almost any other grouping of countries. This growth was marked by significant transformation of their industrial structures. First in Singapore and the Philippines, then in Thailand and Malaysia and lastly in Indonesia. This staggered pattern of industrialisation suggests a differentiated examination of each country’s industrial trajectory – a task this dissertation undertakes by exploring the Flying Geese (FG) model of economic development. The first aim of this study was to verify the applicability of the FG pattern in ASEAN5. To this end, the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index of ASEAN5 in low, medium and high technology manufactures is analysed to assess shifts in comparative advantages from 1964 to 1999. This is complemented by an analysis of FDI flows, for a comprehensive examination of the FG pattern in ASEAN5. The results of this analysis confirm the presence of an FG pattern of development among Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, but not the Philippines. The second aim of this study was to scrutinise the implications of the FG pattern of development in shaping the economic landscapes of ASEAN5. Three impacts, FDI-led growth, co-operation initiatives and poverty reduction, are considered within larger debates on the links between globalisation and economic development. The analysis reveals that the ASEAN5’s record of development under the FG pattern has been mixed, challenging some of the narratives around globalisation
The anti-vaccination movement in Greece
No full textVarious forms of reaction to compulsory measures taken by the Greek government during the COVID19 pandemic, represent a complex interplay of socio-cultural, political, and emotional dynamics. We examine these forms of reaction –our “anti-vaccination movement”– ranging from vaccine hesitancy to vaccine rejection and opposition to lockdowns, through a multi-layered approach, which includes social media analysis, interviews, and a nation-wide survey. Findings indicate that resistance to obligatory measures stems from deep-seated mistrust in institutions, skepticism of government measures, and concerns over personal freedoms. Structural predispositions of the Greek political culture, such as clientelism, fragmented social trust, and egotistic cultural tendencies further exacerbated opposition. While most Greeks ultimately adhered to vaccination campaigns, the underlying resistance reflects broader societal challenges, including polarization, misinformation, and a crisis of trust. Addressing these issues requires tailored communication strategies, enhanced institutional transparency, and longterm efforts to rebuild collective solidarity and civic engagement
Income inequality in Canada from 1982 to 2021: evidence from distributional national accounts
No full textIn this article, we estimate the distribution of all net national income in Canada from 1982 to 2021. We apply distributional national accounts (DINA) methodology to tabulated data from the Longitudinal Administrative Databank, combined with national accounts and survey data. Our descriptive results contribute to a more thorough understanding of income inequality in Canada over the past 40 years. We find that top income shares published by Statistics Canada tend to be underestimated relative to top income shares calculated using DINA, because DINA account for people who do not file taxes and for undistributed capital income that is retained in corporations. In line with previous research, income inequality in Canada increased significantly from 1982 until the mid-2000s. Although labour income drove initial growth in top shares, toward the end of this period capital income contributed most to growth in top shares. Top shares based on tax data were especially underestimated during this period because retained earnings were at their highest. Since the mid-2000s, top shares have decreased slightly and the income share of the bottom 50 percent has increased, although they have not returned to the levels observed in the early 1980s. During the pandemic, post-tax income inequality fell because of the large temporary transfer programs that were introduced. However, pre-tax income inequality increased in 2020, and even more so in 2021 when record levels of corporate profits were reached
Why is Elon Musk destabilising UK and EU politics?
No full textElon Musk’s recent interest in disrupting EU and UK politics can seem a bit of mystery. But as Damian Tambini argues, what lies behind it is the same reason Musk has formed an alliance with Donald Trump: not some deep-seated ideological affinity but blatant economic interest