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Nature degradation and price stability: implications and research questions for monetary policy
No full textNature degradation can negatively affect output, investment, employment, consumption and trade, with potential implications for price stability. This policy brief examines how nature degradation affects key macroeconomic indicators, with a focus on deforestation. It argues that central banks should consider the impacts of nature degradation alongside climate-related factors in monetary policy
It's time to face up to power in the debate about wealth inequality
No full textHow should we frame the problem of wealth inequality? The most effective framing, write Michael Vaughan, Sarah Kerr and Annalena Oppel, centres on the “unfair influence” wielded by those at the top. But might this focus have the undesired effect of deepening people’s sense of fatalism about the future of democracy
Only public ownership of the water system will solve its crisis
No full textThe water system in England and Wales is in crisis. The recent report by the Independent Water Commission led by Sir John Cunliffe recommends the abolition of Ofwat – the current regulator – to be replaced by deeper regulatory reforms. But Kate Bayliss and Gwyn Bevan argue that further regulation is unlikely to resolve the fundamental tension in the privatised water system between the interests of consumers and investors
Bankers’ pay and the evolving structure of US banking
No full textWe consider the determinants of pay in US banks since 1986 using a new structural model in which banking firms are matched in rank order with management teams of varying talent. We calibrate the model to data from US bank holding companies focussing on labor’s share of bank value-added, the level of bankers’ pay and its sensitivity to bank performance. We find that three changes in banking regulation have shaped bankers’ pay in the last three decades: (1) removal of obstacles to interstate banking set off a process of banking consolidation in the 1990s, (2) deregulation at the end of the 1990’s allowing banks to pursue non-interest income has driven a trend toward higher pay and higher incentive pay, (3) tougher regulations following the financial crisis imposing an implicit tax on size and complexity has moderated pay in large banks but in so-doing has allowed smaller banks to take on business outside of standard credit intermediation resulting higher pay in those banks. Taking these structural changes into account we find a tendency over three decades for a decline in labor’s share, in line with superstar effects implied by our structural model
How to distinguish human error from election fraud: evidence from the 2019 Malawi election
No full textVoters and politicians often blame tallying irregularities on fraud, undermining perceptions of democratic and electoral credibility. Yet such irregularities also result from capacity failures and human error. We introduce several methods to assess competing causes of tallying irregularities leveraging the quasi-random administration of polling stations. Using these methods, we revisit the case of the 2019 Malawian presidential election which was famously canceled by the High Court due to widespread result-sheet edits and accusations of fraud. Contrary to the dominant consensus, we do not find evidence that edits were motivated by fraud or that they benefited the incumbent. Instead, we show that edits increased in proportion to the complexity of filling in result-sheets, suggesting a dominant role for human error. In addition to reinterpreting a historically important election, we also make the case that policy efforts to improve electoral credibility could productively be reallocated towards electoral administration rather than anti-fraud measures
Male excess mortality during the epidemiological transition: theory and evidence from India
No full textAt any given age, adult men die at a higher rate than women. In many developed countries, increasing excess mortality of men has been demonstrated for cohorts born in the late nineteenth century and thereafter. The decline in infectious diseases is believed to have contributed to the increase in male excess mortality. Here, we focus on India during 1990–2019, a period in which the Indian states experienced, to varying degrees, the epidemiological transition. We show that male excess mortality evolves positively over the observation period, is greater in later-born cohorts, and is strongly associated with the decline in infectious disease mortality. We propose a simple theory that explains these facts by a greater influence of infections on the biological aging of women compared to men. We calibrate the model with Indian data and show that it can replicate the feature of rising male excess mortality over time and birth year of cohorts
Re-innovation nation: the political economy of technology transfer policy in post-WTO China
No full textThis article examines China’s efforts to accelerate its economic rise using technology absorption policies, or measures that condition foreign market access on technology transfers to domestic firms. I argue bureaucratic fragmentation and China’s position in global value chains (GVCs) constrain its bargaining power over foreign investors, limiting the use of tech absorption policies even in highly strategic industries such as semiconductors. Case studies and analysis of a new industry-level dataset from 1995-2015 suggest centralizing reforms facilitated increased use of tech absorption policies in strategic industries over time. However, China’s reliance on foreign firms to drive export growth and associated employment undercuts tech absorption efforts in strategic industries in which it occupies an intermediate position in GVCs. My findings show how regulatory institutions and GVCs shape the political economy of bargaining over technology transfer between states and firms, and how position in production networks influences the strategic choices behind China’s rise
Price determinants and pricing policies concerning potentially innovative health technologies: a scoping review
No full textBackground Policymakers face challenges in developing pricing policies for potentially innovative healthcare technologies (pIHTs) that balance limited budgets, access, and incentives for innovation. This study aimed to map existing evidence and identify knowledge gaps regarding price determinants and pricing policies for pIHTs and their effect on access and sustainability. Methods We conducted a scoping Review of scientific and grey literature in English published between 2014 and September 2023 with pre-specified inclusion and exclusion criteria to identify stakeholder-informed price determinants, pricing policies applied by European Economic Area (EEA) or Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member states, and their access-related impacts. Literature databases and various stakeholder organisation websites were searched. Further records were included through snowballing and manual addition. Results 135 Records were included. Stakeholder views on price determinants were available from 15 records and predominantly involved value-based determinants. Pricing policies in EEA/OECD member states are heterogeneous and often feature a mix of policy interventions and implementation methods. External price referencing (EPR), while yielding short-term affordability improvements, is associated with price inequities and launch strategies impairing patient access. Policies combining pricing methods and considering a pIHT’s value have more positive access-related impact but may face feasibility and implementation challenges. Two records mentioned medical device pricing; none featured environmental aspects. Conclusion While EPR is commonly applied across Europe, value-informed pricing in connection with health technology assessment is more favoured regarding pIHT access in the literature. Knowledge gaps concern medical device pricing, stakeholder views on price determinants, and the implementation of environmental aspects in pIHT pricing
Pain predicts being out of work, especially for those with low job control: longitudinal analysis of adults in Australia
No full textObjective While work provides a crucial source of income and purpose, pain can be a significant limiting factor. Yet robust empirical evidence on the factors underlying the link between pain and being out of work remains scarce. We explore the longitudinal association between pain and being out of work and potential explanatory factors. Methods We used nationally representative longitudinal data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics of Australia Survey (n=25 973, number of observations=233 989, 2002–2022). We conducted individual fixed effects regressions with a wide range of covariates. Results We found that pain in a given year was significantly positively associated with the likelihood of being out of work the year after. Pain interference with work explained this link. This association was moderated by job control: participants who reported very severe pain and low job control were more likely (10.6%) to lose their job next year than those who reported very severe pain and high job control (6.7%). Conclusions Pain was associated with being out of work, with job control moderating that link. Having the autonomy to flexibly adapt the nature of work tasks to accommodate pain may protect against being out of work