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What is the best way of collecting data donations? An experiment assessing the feasibility of different data donation approaches to measure mobile and app usage
No full textSmartphones are now ubiquitous in daily life, requiring the development of accurate methodologies to study their impact on various aspects of human experience. A promising approach to collect mobile log data is to ask participants to donate, in the context of online surveys, the data that is already available to them through features such as iOS Screen Time and Android Digital Wellbeing. This approach grants participants control over the data they share while providing researchers with valuable observational insights into their mobile and app behaviours. However, the active involvement required from participants poses challenges, leading to low compliance rates and potential biases in the final sample of donors. This study investigates whether the method used to collect data donations, and the incentives provided, have an impact on compliance rates, and the subsequent composition of the sample. Specifically, we implemented a 2 × 3 between-subject web survey experiment (N = 872) in a research-led probability-based panel in Switzerland. Participants were randomly asked to capture and share their data through screenshots, video recordings, and by manual imputation (which we call enhanced recall). Results show that, while compliance rates are very low when using screenshots and video recordings as data donation methods, almost two thirds of participants donated their data by manually imputing their log data. We also found donors to be younger and more technologically adept. Overall, our study sheds light on maximising compliance in data donation studies, offering insights for researchers studying mobile and app usage
The rising tide: floods as drivers of income and welfare inequality in South Africa
No full textThis paper examines how floods impact inequality in South Africa by linking georeferenced flood data with cross-sectional household and individual data from the National Income Dynamics Study survey. Using a difference-in-differences estimation, we assess the causal effects of five major flood events between 2008 and 2017 on individual welfare across multiple dimensions: labour income, income with social benefits, post-fiscal income, consumption, and material deprivation. Our findings reveal that floods significantly reduce all income measures for individuals within 0.5 km of flood zones, with substantial spill-over effects extending to 1 km. While South Africa's extensive social grant system provides some cushioning, it is insufficiently shockresponsive to prevent welfare declines. Post-fiscal income falls as coverage gaps exclude informal workers, grant values erode due to post-disaster inflation, and indirect taxes continue to burden affected individuals. Floods also reduce individual consumption and increase material deprivation by destroying assets, disrupting markets, and raising the cost of essentials. These effects are particularly severe for low-income individuals in informal settlements, who face disproportionate exposure, limited recovery capacity, and prolonged deprivation. Our results demonstrate that floods are not merely environmental shocks but powerful drivers of inequality that interact with South Africa's pre-existing spatial, racial, and economic disparities. The findings underscore the need for shock-responsive social protection, resilient infrastructure investment, and equitable climate adaptation policies to prevent floods from further entrenching structural inequality
Children's visions of digital futures
No full textDiscussions about the future of human interaction with digital technologies are more prevalent than ever, but there is an urgent need for deeper conversations with young people, for whom technology plays a crucial role in their lives. This project by the Digital Futures for Children (DFC) centre highlights the importance of involving children, through co-design and participatory methodology, in identifying the priorities and action needed for a more sustainable and rights-respecting digital future for all children around the world
What is it like to be interviewed by AI, and how will it transform research?
No full textLarge language models (LLMs) provide an opportunity to conduct qualitative interviews at a large scale, with thousands of respondents, creating a powerful bridge between qualitative and quantitative methods. Researchers at STICERD have developed a simple and versatile open-source platform for AI-led interviews, exploring the benefits of such an approach, particularly when examining complex or polarising topics
Reflecting digital transformations in public health curricula: guidance for public health schools
No full textPublic health education and training must include digital skills to maximise the positive public health impact of digital technologies. While these tools have proven valuable, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, most public health curricula have not yet prioritised teaching digital skills and their implementation throughout essential public health functions. Drawing on existing frameworks from healthcare and emerging initiatives like the WHO Digital Health Competency Framework, the BeWell project, and the ASPHER Core Curriculum for Public Health, we outline the essential knowledge areas that students and professionals need: basic IT skills, managing and analysing large health datasets, communicating effectively through digital channels, understanding the ethical and legal issues around data and privacy, and recognising both the promise and the risks of artificial intelligence. To ensure these competencies are learned in context, we recommend including digital topics into core public health courses, such as adding the analysis of novel health data sources into epidemiology or designing social media strategies in health promotion courses, instead of emphasising digital tools and skills only as part of separate electives. We also stress the importance of teaching leadership and change-management skills so public health graduates can guide organisations through digital shifts and provide ongoing training for the current workforce. Finally, by encouraging collaboration between public health, computer science, and engineering departments, public health schools can build an interdisciplinary community that works together on digital health challenges. With these changes, public health professionals will be better equipped to leverage emerging digital technology responsibly and effectively and help improve health outcomes for all
From perception to policy: insights for evidence-based preparedness policy in Slovenia and Ireland
No full textThis presentation explores two key challenges in using cross-national behavioural data to inform preparedness and resilience policymaking: 1) why behavioural data is so important (Slovenia) and 2) achieving policy buy-in (Ireland). In Slovenia, findings from the March 2024 European Pandemic Preparedness Behaviour survey (n = 1.522) reveal a gap between perceived and actual preparedness. While 52% felt well prepared for a potential lockdown, only 47.2% said they would stay home when symptomatic, and fewer than one-third had all the recommended emergency stockpile. Vaccine confidence was also low-only 42.3% believed vaccines are safe, and 52.9% thought they are effective. These results highlight the complexity of preparedness behaviours and underscore the need for targeted, evidence-based interventions to enhance confidence, readiness and compliance with preventive measures during future pandemics. In Ireland, the focus is on the policymaking process itself-specifically, the barriers and enablers policymakers face when integrating behavioural evidence into public health planning. Although behavioural science has informed Ireland's COVID-19 response and continues to shape policy, building long-term preparedness requires sustained collaboration and foresight. This case study reflects on how Ireland's Department of Health has applied data from the Pandemic Preparedness Survey to guide emergency planning and shares insights into how researchers can foster policy buy-in throughout the research lifecycle. Together, these case studies from Slovenia and Ireland emphasize the vital role of behavioural science in developing resilient, evidence-based policies for future public health crises
The global, regional, and national burden of cancer, 1990–2023, with forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
No full textBackground: Cancer is a leading cause of death globally. Accurate cancer burden information is crucial for policy planning, but many countries do not have up-to-date cancer surveillance data. To inform global cancer-control efforts, we used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework to generate and analyse estimates of cancer burden for 47 cancer types or groupings by age, sex, and 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, cancer burden attributable to selected risk factors from 1990 to 2023, and forecasted cancer burden up to 2050. Methods: Cancer estimation in GBD 2023 used data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Cancer mortality was estimated using ensemble models, with incidence informed by mortality estimates and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Prevalence estimates were generated from modelled survival estimates, then multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We used the GBD 2023 comparative risk assessment framework to estimate cancer burden attributable to 44 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. To forecast cancer burden from 2024 to 2050, we used the GBD 2023 forecasting framework, which included forecasts of relevant risk factor exposures and used Socio-demographic Index as a covariate for forecasting the proportion of each cancer not affected by these risk factors. Progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 aim to reduce non-communicable disease mortality by a third between 2015 and 2030 was estimated for cancer. Findings: In 2023, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, there were 18·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 16·4 to 20·7) incident cases of cancer and 10·4 million (9·65 to 10·9) deaths, contributing to 271 million (255 to 285) DALYs globally. Of these, 57·9% (56·1 to 59·8) of incident cases and 65·8% (64·3 to 67·6) of cancer deaths occurred in low-income to upper-middle-income countries based on World Bank income group classifications. Cancer was the second leading cause of deaths globally in 2023 after cardiovascular diseases. There were 4·33 million (3·85 to 4·78) risk-attributable cancer deaths globally in 2023, comprising 41·7% (37·8 to 45·4) of all cancer deaths. Risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 72·3% (57·1 to 86·8) from 1990 to 2023, whereas overall global cancer deaths increased by 74·3% (62·2 to 86·2) over the same period. The reference forecasts (the most likely future) estimate that in 2050 there will be 30·5 million (22·9 to 38·9) cases and 18·6 million (15·6 to 21·5) deaths from cancer globally, 60·7% (41·9 to 80·6) and 74·5% (50·1 to 104·2) increases from 2024, respectively. These forecasted increases in deaths are greater in low-income and middle-income countries (90·6% [61·0 to 127·0]) compared with high-income countries (42·8% [28·3 to 58·6]). Most of these increases are likely due to demographic changes, as age-standardised death rates are forecast to change by –5·6% (–12·8 to 4·6) between 2024 and 2050 globally. Between 2015 and 2030, the probability of dying due to cancer between the ages of 30 years and 70 years was forecasted to have a relative decrease of 6·5% (3·2 to 10·3). Interpretation: Cancer is a major contributor to global disease burden, with increasing numbers of cases and deaths forecasted up to 2050 and a disproportionate growth in burden in countries with scarce resources. The decline in age-standardised mortality rates from cancer is encouraging but insufficient to meet the SDG target set for 2030. Effectively and sustainably addressing cancer burden globally will require comprehensive national and international efforts that consider health systems and context in the development and implementation of cancer-control strategies across the continuum of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Funding: Gates Foundation, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, and St Baldrick's Foundation
Replication of ‘Instrumentally inclusive: the political psychology of homonationalism’ (Turnbull-Dugarte and López Ortega, 2024)
No full textTurnbull-Dugarte and López Ortega (2024) argue that increasing exposure to sexually conservative ethnic out-groups causes instrumental support for LGBT+ rights among those predisposed to disfavor the ethnic out-group. The article presents results from two related experiments, one conducted in the UK and a follow up in Spain, where respondents were randomly assigned to read vignettes about anti-LGBT+ protests, and the identity of the protesters was varied. I outline a series of concerns with the article, primarily related to ad hoc empirical choices. The authors use weights (of undisclosed origin) that follow a peculiar bimodal distribution in the second study but use no weights in the first, and inconsistently use robust standard errors throughout. These choices create a pattern of statistically significant results consistent with their theory, a pattern that disappears when either choice is varied. Additional analyses show that, rather than supporting their theory, the second experiment contradicts it
The ethnic politics of nature protection in Africa
No full textNature protected areas are hailed as an institutional solution to the global biodiversity crisis. However, conservation entails local economic costs for some communities and benefits for others. We propose that the establishment of protected areas in Africa follows an ethno-political logic which implies that governments distribute protected areas such that their ethnic constituencies are shielded from their costs but enjoy their benefits. We test this argument using continent-wide data on ethnic groups’ power status and protected area establishment since independence. Difference-in-differences models show that political inclusion decreases nature protection in groups’ settlement areas. However, this effect is reversed for protected areas that plausibly generate tourism income. We also find that ethno-political inclusion is linked to legal degradation of protected areas. Our findings support long-voiced concerns by activists that politically marginalized groups carry disproportional costs of conservation. This has implications, given the likely expansion of protected areas the decades to com